http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/09/11/will-the-usa-also-break-up-into-regions/
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Will the USA Also Break-up Into Regions?
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; A friend of mine attended one of your Edinburgh conferences here in the nineties where he said they introduced you as a 7th generation Scotsman not as an American. He said you answered the question in 1997 and said that Scotland would seek independence from the UK starting in 2011. You also said the USA would eventually split because of the cultural differences between the regions and the driving force there would also be the social program burden...
ANSWER: Yes, the forecasts I delivered there in Edinburgh remain unchanged. Keep in mind that whatever the SNP says today to win is not necessarily the final outcome. The split will not come until 2016 and then the world economy will be turning down...
As for the break-up of the USA, the computer has been warning for decades now that the 2016 election will see a sharp rise in third-party activity. The Republican Party may split again. We see the internal civil war with the Tea Party people. This is the core of the break-up for what lies behind that is culture and religion. Once the economy turns down, this will accelerate.
It appears that Hillary will be the Democratic candidate and that will merely solidify the Republic split. By 2032, the other side of this 51.6 year wave looks to be a starkly different world. The USA will split and China will become the Financial Capital of the World.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; A friend of mine attended one of your Edinburgh conferences here in the nineties where he said they introduced you as a 7th generation Scotsman not as an American. He said you answered the question in 1997 and said that Scotland would seek independence from the UK starting in 2011. You also said the USA would eventually split because of the cultural differences between the regions and the driving force there would also be the social program burden...
ANSWER: Yes, the forecasts I delivered there in Edinburgh remain unchanged. Keep in mind that whatever the SNP says today to win is not necessarily the final outcome. The split will not come until 2016 and then the world economy will be turning down...
As for the break-up of the USA, the computer has been warning for decades now that the 2016 election will see a sharp rise in third-party activity. The Republican Party may split again. We see the internal civil war with the Tea Party people. This is the core of the break-up for what lies behind that is culture and religion. Once the economy turns down, this will accelerate.
It appears that Hillary will be the Democratic candidate and that will merely solidify the Republic split. By 2032, the other side of this 51.6 year wave looks to be a starkly different world. The USA will split and China will become the Financial Capital of the World.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/02/boehner-on-the-way-out/
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Boehner on the Way Out?
John Boehner, the current Republican Speaker of the House, just may be thrown out. He wages war against the Tea Party and threw off every financial committee anyone who supported Ron Paul...
Currently more than 50% of the Republicans want him gone. He has to stand for election as Speaker and we could at least get some reform if he is kicked out in House elections.
John Boehner, the current Republican Speaker of the House, just may be thrown out. He wages war against the Tea Party and threw off every financial committee anyone who supported Ron Paul...
Currently more than 50% of the Republicans want him gone. He has to stand for election as Speaker and we could at least get some reform if he is kicked out in House elections.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/12/26/224-collapsing-wave-structure-point-to-breakup-of-usa/
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| http://i2.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/us-224-cYCLE-2013.jpg?resize=584%2C467 | 224 Year Collapsing Wave Structure Points to Breakup of USA The CONFIDENCE in government is truly collapsing. The latest CNN Poll shows that 73% of Americans feel Congress has done nothing worthwhile. The approval rating for the Democrats has collapsed by 6% and this is all part of the process of shifting from a Public Confidence Wave to a Private Confidence Wave. There are two types of waves on the 224 Year Cycle – the Collapsing Wave and the Protracted Wave. It appears that the USA is in the Collapsing Wave formation meaning that the 224 year runs from the birth to the peak with the total duration running minimum 296 years with the optimum being 309.6 years meaning the society splits and does not remain intact. A Protracted Wave is a society view where the wave is measured peak to peak totaling 224 years. The second Protracted Wave formation is where governments come and go, but society survives and reforms remaining intact. In the Collapsing Wave structure where it is 224 year from birth to peak, the overall duration appears to be is 296-309 years. for the conclusion whereby society breaks apart and fragmentation emerges..In the case of Rome, 309 years from the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44BC is 265AD where Rome broke apart and the Gallic Empire emerged under Postumus (259-268AD). This Collapsing Wave structure that the United States appears to be in means it is a one-time-wonder and that the United States will break-up and the there will be no more “united” union. This is becoming self-evidence in the polarization of politics with tremendous differences in culture on a regional basis. The Obamacare is just one aspect revealing the undercurrent whereby one segment of society believes it has a right to force their views upon another group. So unfortunately, the USA does not appear to be destined to remain intact otherwise we would have seen and overall structured wave of 224 years. We seem to be in the Collapsing Wave with the 224 years was from birth to peak with an overall duration of 309.6 years at best. This appears to be like the Collapsing Wave in Imperial Rome itself whereas from the assassination of Julius Caesar in 44BC to the peak in the glory of Rome and population in the city took place under Marcus Aurelius that was 224 years later in 180AD. The decline that followed brought total chaos, sovereign debt crisis, massive government seizure of capital, fragmentation of the Empire, and in the end, Rome was no longer the Capitol and that became Constantinople followed by the split of East and West. We are much more akin to the this type of Collapsing Wave formation whereby society collapses and breaks apart. Now we have the Cycle of War turning in 2014 that appears to be focused within civil unrest at least initially. |
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/31/constitution-is-just-a-scrap-of-paper/
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Constitution is Just a Scrap of Paper
...
ANSWER: If I were to speak from hope rather than experience, I would agree with you. But the reality is I have studied constitutional law very intensely. There is nothing that the Founders did that has been retained. We have no ability to even bring a suit against the government, they have to give you permission first. I would attack the whole thing under civil rights, but that gets as far as the prejudice of the judge. It’s a dirty word they call “discretion” to violate your rights.
Take the Freedom of Speech. Under the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause, Article Six, Clause 2 establishes the U.S. Constitution, federal statutes, and U.S. treaties as “the supreme law of the land”. It provides that these are the highest form of law in the U.S. legal system, and mandates that all state judges must follow federal law when a conflict arises between federal law and either the state constitution or state law of any state. This was the secret federalization of the USA. This is how the Feds broke up the segregation in the South. They said that no state could pass a law against the Feds using the Supremacy Clause. Hence, the Civil Rights enforcement during the 1960s was orchestrated this way. The Feds write a law that supersede whatever the state desires. Therein will ultimately be the breakup of the Federal government because of this clause.
Now for the hypocrisy. Government is able to arrest anyone who protests to exert their First Amendment Freedom of Speech that they disagree with. They simply arrest you for walking on the grass as they did with Coxley or failing to have a permit – NEVER for expressing your opinion. OMG. There is the First Amendment. They get to arrest you for some other violation not because of what you say.
Every single protest has been broken up this way since the late 1890s. The Feds justified sending in tanks in 1932 to kill Veterans in the Bonus Army calling them “criminals” and communists simply because they asked for what had been promised. Yet, call someone a criminal and you then justify killing them.
Those who protest against the Income Tax go to jail all the time because they try to argue that the tax is supposed to be voluntary. The tax protesters do not pay and argue they should have that right. This is why you have to break everything down very carefully whether it is taxes, the concept of inflation or the definition of political systems. Yes – the income tax is voluntary. However, filing is not! You MUST file an income tax return and TELL them what you owe. They CANNOT imprison you for not paying, it is FAILURE TO FILE. Wesley Snipes was sent to prison after being convicted of three misdemeanor counts back in 2008 for failing to file tax returns from 1999-2001. It was not the failure to pay, that would be unconstitutional. It was the failure to file.
Unfortunately, the Constitution is way too malleable in the hands of government appointed judges for life. It is a joke that we have even a Tripartite government. Presidents claim EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE and then claim the power for “signing statements” where they can simply instruct their own Executive Department not to enforce this law. That is plainly UNCONSTITUTIONAL for it circumvents the pretended legislative branch. The EU Commission need not obey the Parliament – well guess what – the President can do the same. They also have claimed the right to issue dictatorial decrees without Congress called – Executive Orders. Hello – Roosevelt’s confiscation of gold was an Executive Order – not legislation passed by the people.
...
ANSWER: If I were to speak from hope rather than experience, I would agree with you. But the reality is I have studied constitutional law very intensely. There is nothing that the Founders did that has been retained. We have no ability to even bring a suit against the government, they have to give you permission first. I would attack the whole thing under civil rights, but that gets as far as the prejudice of the judge. It’s a dirty word they call “discretion” to violate your rights.
Take the Freedom of Speech. Under the Constitution’s Supremacy Clause, Article Six, Clause 2 establishes the U.S. Constitution, federal statutes, and U.S. treaties as “the supreme law of the land”. It provides that these are the highest form of law in the U.S. legal system, and mandates that all state judges must follow federal law when a conflict arises between federal law and either the state constitution or state law of any state. This was the secret federalization of the USA. This is how the Feds broke up the segregation in the South. They said that no state could pass a law against the Feds using the Supremacy Clause. Hence, the Civil Rights enforcement during the 1960s was orchestrated this way. The Feds write a law that supersede whatever the state desires. Therein will ultimately be the breakup of the Federal government because of this clause.
Now for the hypocrisy. Government is able to arrest anyone who protests to exert their First Amendment Freedom of Speech that they disagree with. They simply arrest you for walking on the grass as they did with Coxley or failing to have a permit – NEVER for expressing your opinion. OMG. There is the First Amendment. They get to arrest you for some other violation not because of what you say.
Every single protest has been broken up this way since the late 1890s. The Feds justified sending in tanks in 1932 to kill Veterans in the Bonus Army calling them “criminals” and communists simply because they asked for what had been promised. Yet, call someone a criminal and you then justify killing them.
Those who protest against the Income Tax go to jail all the time because they try to argue that the tax is supposed to be voluntary. The tax protesters do not pay and argue they should have that right. This is why you have to break everything down very carefully whether it is taxes, the concept of inflation or the definition of political systems. Yes – the income tax is voluntary. However, filing is not! You MUST file an income tax return and TELL them what you owe. They CANNOT imprison you for not paying, it is FAILURE TO FILE. Wesley Snipes was sent to prison after being convicted of three misdemeanor counts back in 2008 for failing to file tax returns from 1999-2001. It was not the failure to pay, that would be unconstitutional. It was the failure to file.
Unfortunately, the Constitution is way too malleable in the hands of government appointed judges for life. It is a joke that we have even a Tripartite government. Presidents claim EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE and then claim the power for “signing statements” where they can simply instruct their own Executive Department not to enforce this law. That is plainly UNCONSTITUTIONAL for it circumvents the pretended legislative branch. The EU Commission need not obey the Parliament – well guess what – the President can do the same. They also have claimed the right to issue dictatorial decrees without Congress called – Executive Orders. Hello – Roosevelt’s confiscation of gold was an Executive Order – not legislation passed by the people.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/01/07/separatist-movements-are-also-alive-in-the-usa-goodbye-california/
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| http://i0.wp.com/armstrongeconomics.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/europe-separatist-movement.jpg?resize=584%2C340 | Separatist Movements are Also Alive in the USA – Goodbye California? I have reported how there are separatist movements cropping up all over the place. We will see Scotland come to a vote this year in 2014 about separating from the United Kingdom. As taxes rise and finger-pointing increases, the rising trend is to separation. The building resentment in Southern Europe to break away from the Eurozone is gaining support in Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. The only thing they got out of the deal besides higher debts was import-duty-free German cars and French wine. Most restaurants in Rome will not even serve French wines. Even in Switzerland the bias is toward Italian wines. The separatist trend is also alive and well and we will see this movement gaining popularity with the Bible-Belt looking to separate from the USA leaving the Democrats to themselves. If the Democrats won in 2016, there might be civil war. This separatist movement exists even in Texas, but now it is rising higher in California. There, it is primarily North v South, but there is an argument to divide California into 6 states. This is all part of the decline and fall of socialism. Obamacare has been a total disaster. Even my personal insurance went up by 20% and others a lot more or cancelled. It would have been cheaper to just pay the medical bills for the 1.1 million people and leave the rest of us alone. But no possible way. The government has a policy. If it ain’t broken – break it. And if it is broken – try to screw it up so bad you can blame someone else. If it does work well, there must be something wrong. |
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/05/01/how-far-in-the-future-does-your-computer-model-project/
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How far in the future does your computer model project?
QUESTION: How far in the future does your computer model project?
ANSWER: One of the fascinating aspects about modeling the world economy is you rapidly discover that the complexity is enormous, yet the outcome is far more predictable Long-Term than Short-Term. This may seem illogical at first, but once you comprehend the dynamics of the system it becomes understandable.
The Long-Term is far easier to predict with even 100% accuracy than Short-Term. Why? There is a lot of noise within the system so that markets can rally today and drop tomorrow yet the closing prices are nothing dramatically different. The Long-Term is what confuses people. Like the whole reasoning behind gold, fiat, deficits, and the dollar. People look at the national debt and say the system has to burst. That may be true that the sustainability of ANY system inevitably falls into collapse. However, the question is always TIMING.
Bretton Woods was a fatal design as was the Euro trying to create a single currency yet retain individual sovereign debt. That does not mean that the system would be incapable of functioning for a few decades. However, such system cannot be sustained indefinitely and will always collapse.
Therefore, you can state with confidence that the Euro will collapse, as will the Dollar and the Yen. The question is simply WHEN? Consequently, the Long-Term can be predicted with ease; the TIMING is something altogether different.
Our model is concerned about TIME and the interplay between all the factors that combine to make or break the trend. This is not about personal opinion for NOBODY can predict the future with respect to complexity and TIME from a pure opinion or gut reaction.
Our computer can accurately project Long-Term trends out into the hundreds of years. Why? Because it is only a matter of TIME that all things must change and evolve. The United States will break-up as a political entity and it is the people’s fault because human nature allows crazy politicians to go unpunished for decades before revolution bursts out onto the scene.
This is what the conspiracy nuts cannot get through their head who insist Ukraine was orchestrated by a CIA plot. All the desire of the CIA to accomplish a change in government may exist. However, the best that can be accomplished is a coup – not a revolution. Why? A coup does not require the PEOPLE – only a small group. A Revolution requires the PEOPLE and that will only be accomplished when the economic trend declines and forces the people to take action. The USA will go through this VERY SAME process. You will see the rise of civil unrest as the economy turns down after 2015.75 and uprisings like Occupy Wall Street unfold but with more violence. That will NOT be a CIA plot – and people who fail to comprehend this important difference are just too biased in their views to see the writing on the wall.
herefore, the Long-Term is very predictable that there will be a revolution in the USA when the taxes rise and the standard of living collapses so that people have then lost their future. What makes such changes take place is ALWAYS the economy. If you can map the world economy, you can map the future.
The ONLY question is TIME.
QUESTION: How far in the future does your computer model project?
ANSWER: One of the fascinating aspects about modeling the world economy is you rapidly discover that the complexity is enormous, yet the outcome is far more predictable Long-Term than Short-Term. This may seem illogical at first, but once you comprehend the dynamics of the system it becomes understandable.
The Long-Term is far easier to predict with even 100% accuracy than Short-Term. Why? There is a lot of noise within the system so that markets can rally today and drop tomorrow yet the closing prices are nothing dramatically different. The Long-Term is what confuses people. Like the whole reasoning behind gold, fiat, deficits, and the dollar. People look at the national debt and say the system has to burst. That may be true that the sustainability of ANY system inevitably falls into collapse. However, the question is always TIMING.
Bretton Woods was a fatal design as was the Euro trying to create a single currency yet retain individual sovereign debt. That does not mean that the system would be incapable of functioning for a few decades. However, such system cannot be sustained indefinitely and will always collapse.
Therefore, you can state with confidence that the Euro will collapse, as will the Dollar and the Yen. The question is simply WHEN? Consequently, the Long-Term can be predicted with ease; the TIMING is something altogether different.
Our model is concerned about TIME and the interplay between all the factors that combine to make or break the trend. This is not about personal opinion for NOBODY can predict the future with respect to complexity and TIME from a pure opinion or gut reaction.
Our computer can accurately project Long-Term trends out into the hundreds of years. Why? Because it is only a matter of TIME that all things must change and evolve. The United States will break-up as a political entity and it is the people’s fault because human nature allows crazy politicians to go unpunished for decades before revolution bursts out onto the scene.
This is what the conspiracy nuts cannot get through their head who insist Ukraine was orchestrated by a CIA plot. All the desire of the CIA to accomplish a change in government may exist. However, the best that can be accomplished is a coup – not a revolution. Why? A coup does not require the PEOPLE – only a small group. A Revolution requires the PEOPLE and that will only be accomplished when the economic trend declines and forces the people to take action. The USA will go through this VERY SAME process. You will see the rise of civil unrest as the economy turns down after 2015.75 and uprisings like Occupy Wall Street unfold but with more violence. That will NOT be a CIA plot – and people who fail to comprehend this important difference are just too biased in their views to see the writing on the wall.
herefore, the Long-Term is very predictable that there will be a revolution in the USA when the taxes rise and the standard of living collapses so that people have then lost their future. What makes such changes take place is ALWAYS the economy. If you can map the world economy, you can map the future.
The ONLY question is TIME.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/01/time-fourth-dimension-catalyst-v-object/
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TIME & Fourth Dimension – Catalyst v Object
QUESTION: Wine and Energy have one thing in common… real estate ( thinking Linearly). However if one uses “Relativity Theory”, we can go deeper. Relativity says,Essentially,when you measure an object ( in this case price) to determine it’s velocity, momentum and how it experiences time you must measure it in relation to something else.
I’m guessing that Wine and Energy move through time in a similar fashion. They don’t really affect one another, they merely experience time in the same way. One may move faster, slower and with less or more momentum but they correlate in how they experience time.
ANSWER: Yes. It is not merely real estate. You are overlooking the common element – human nature. Does it take a given amount of time for a particular commodity to move? Or is it that the TIME is a constant factor and the mover and shaker is human nature? If we assume the object rather than the catalyst, commonality remains hidden. Wine and Oil appear to be different only on the surface. Yet they both reveal a trend of expanding production into the high based upon human decisions predicated upon confidence at that moment for the majority assume whatever trend is in motion remains in motion. Then the collapse in confidence drives the price down. This is why every investigation of a crash is unable to find the culprit. The truth lies simply in the actions of the majority. Scare the herd and you create a stampede and panic.
The difference in the rate of change of course exists unique to each instrument. However, the trend is the common bond and that reflects back to the trend in the catalyst – not the instrument. Observing TIME as a fourth dimension separate and apart from the “fundamentals” reveals a whole new world.
QUESTION: Wine and Energy have one thing in common… real estate ( thinking Linearly). However if one uses “Relativity Theory”, we can go deeper. Relativity says,Essentially,when you measure an object ( in this case price) to determine it’s velocity, momentum and how it experiences time you must measure it in relation to something else.
I’m guessing that Wine and Energy move through time in a similar fashion. They don’t really affect one another, they merely experience time in the same way. One may move faster, slower and with less or more momentum but they correlate in how they experience time.
ANSWER: Yes. It is not merely real estate. You are overlooking the common element – human nature. Does it take a given amount of time for a particular commodity to move? Or is it that the TIME is a constant factor and the mover and shaker is human nature? If we assume the object rather than the catalyst, commonality remains hidden. Wine and Oil appear to be different only on the surface. Yet they both reveal a trend of expanding production into the high based upon human decisions predicated upon confidence at that moment for the majority assume whatever trend is in motion remains in motion. Then the collapse in confidence drives the price down. This is why every investigation of a crash is unable to find the culprit. The truth lies simply in the actions of the majority. Scare the herd and you create a stampede and panic.
The difference in the rate of change of course exists unique to each instrument. However, the trend is the common bond and that reflects back to the trend in the catalyst – not the instrument. Observing TIME as a fourth dimension separate and apart from the “fundamentals” reveals a whole new world.
