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Topic: Economic Devastation - page 143. (Read 504811 times)

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newbie
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March 26, 2014, 12:00:44 PM
Please show your calculations for a different amount of time, then.

The answer is infinity as the debt can never be paid off. It is mathamatically impossible under the current system.The debt in agregate can only grow. I will show why this is the case and why the hotel room example you cited above is wrong when I have more time.

Yet real world debts are paid off every day, and even loans that go into default must somehow be satisfied. Therefore, there must be an average loan repayment time, like I said in the first place. Sure, all it takes is one outstanding loan and mean repayment time becomes indefinite, but that's not the same as infinite. And a mean is just one type of average statistic.


Despite your correct analysis of finite/infinite and mean, the problem with the economic debt is we're not dealing "real world".
newbie
Activity: 53
Merit: 0
March 26, 2014, 09:14:10 AM
"'Communism' is not a movement of the downtrodden masses but is a movement created, manipulated and used by power-seeking billionaires in order to gain control over the world...first by establishing socialist governments in the various nations and then consolidating them all through a 'Great Merger,' into an all-powerful world socialist super-state probably under the auspices of the United Nations."  - Gary Allen in None Dare Call It Conspiracy page 34.

All those who have sought dictatorial control over modern nations have understood the necessity of a central bank. When the League of Just Men hired a hack revolutionary named Karl Marx to write a blueprint for conquest called The Communist Manefesto, the fifth plank read: 'Centralization of credit in the hands of the state, by means of a national bank with state capital and an exclusive monopoly.' Lenin later said that the establishment of a central bank was ninety percent of communizing a country. Such conspirators knew that you cannot take control of a nation without military force unless that nation has a central bank through which you can control its economy. - None Dare Call It Conspiracy page 40.

"Radical movements are never successful unless they attract big money and/or outside support. The great historian of the Twentieth Century, Oswald Spengler, was one of those who saw what American Liberals refuse to see--that the Left is controlled by its alleged enemy, the malefactors of great wealth. - None Dare Call It Conspiracy page 57.

Very worthwhile reading.
legendary
Activity: 1946
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March 25, 2014, 12:31:53 AM
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 23, 2014, 02:43:07 PM
Please show your calculations for a different amount of time, then.

The answer is infinity as the debt can never be paid off. It is mathamatically impossible under the current system.The debt in agregate can only grow. I will show why this is the case and why the hotel room example you cited above is wrong when I have more time.

yet Anonymint makes it sound as if the debt is akin to an expensive water leak in Fukushima Daiichi, and so requires constant work to maintain: "a heavy burden on society to maintain the status quo". But that's simply not the case. However, instead of developing a super-secret non-evolving proof-of-work crypto-coin for the elites, why not filter some of that water?

This analogy actually understates the problem. If the debt problem required only constant work to maintain society could bear it easily as society is very productive. In truth the debt problem requires an ever increasing burden on society to maintain the status quo.  
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
March 23, 2014, 10:39:40 AM
Quote
Central bank was invented a the end of the Middle Ages, but it wasn't ubiquitous until the 20th century. In addition to the $223 trillion debt which is 313% of global GDP,

Translation: on average, a debt takes a whopping 3.13 years to repay. A contrary argument could be that thanks to all the technology, interconnectedness, and trust between groups of people, millions of friendly IOUs are lasting longer than ever before.

that's not what this means at all. it would take 3.13 years to repay only if every profit made globally was applied to the debt for that entire period of time. which is impossible because everybody would starve and/or freeze to death in about a month...

[snip]

As for the amount of money vs global GDP, since when does an anarchist care about aggregate government statistics? It's like being enthralled by the World Weather Report despite not planning to do any travelling. Its relevance is minuscule at worst.

this is an obvious deflection after i pointed out that the bolded statement is not only decidedly false, but also completely absurd. i'm not sure if you were simply trying to downplay the point, but if you actually believe what you said then that alone shows a lack of understanding of the situation.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 23, 2014, 09:35:40 AM
The debt is simply the broad money supply. A surplus on someone's accounting books, profit, makes no difference unless it causes a loan repayment that works its way back to the central bank and causes some of those trillions to be deleted from the system.

We've had this debate already and I already won it with a slam dunk:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5654081

a) Your link does not show you debating definitions of debt.
b) I wasn't even in that part of the conversation, so don't make shit up.
c) Your bluff has been called. Either refute what I said by typing new words here, not link-farming, or lose gracefully for once.

AnonyMint is not arguing with you that overall debt = broad money supply that is simple fact.
What he is challenging is your claim that the current structure makes no difference unless it cause a loan repayment to work its way back up to the central bank as well as your implication that that the current debt = broad money system is fundamentally sound if properly regulated.

He is correct. The current system is unsound, unstable, and guaranteed to eventually collapse regardless of regulation. However, understanding why is not at all easy. In essence there are two overlapping cycles which I call the microparasitic and macroparasitic cycle. Banks via fractional reserve banking cause boom and bust cycles on a local level siphoning wealth in an unstable process that eventually collapses and leads to bank runs. Later on a macro level banks capture government to backstop each of these local collapses. Subsequent collapse then cause a run on government finances. Government debt grows ever larger with each micro cycle until the debt burden of government becomes unsustainable. At this point the we get asset confiscations, governmental collapse, and perhaps war.

This is just a summary not a satisfactory explanation. A full explanation requires us to wade into the swamp that is central banking, expose the common lies that are taught in many economic textbooks, and fully explore their implications. This debate has inspired me to write said explanation but it is going to be several pages long as the system is complex. Due to work obligations it may take me 2-3 weeks to get this done. Please check back.      

hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
March 23, 2014, 07:36:28 AM
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-22623

Quote from: AnonyMint
I can dream about a solution to eliminate the ability of government to tax virtual knowledge. They would still be able to tax tangible commerce which is being replaced any way by virtual knowledge production.

We are moving towards maximum division-of-labor wherein the individual is his own company and call sell his knowledge production anonymously. This requires a different implementation than Bitcoin's design.

The government won't be able to tax that (if it comes to fruition and works as envisioned), thus the backstop for public debt won't be possible. The tangible commerce world is orders-of-magnitude less productive than the intangible knowledge work, e.g. look what the laser printer did for decentralized publishing, then the internet did to decentralized publishing, and now the 3D printer will do to decentralized manufacturing.

The key is the anonymous money has to become a unit-of-account via decentralized exchange and mining. This requires certain technical feats, which have yet to be demonstrated.

P.S. I would have preferred to have written "one of the more prolific and astute". There is no way to edit posts here and I'm in a rush and don't proof read.
hero member
Activity: 518
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March 23, 2014, 07:17:38 AM
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
March 22, 2014, 10:06:35 AM
That people actually have faith and belief in the "prophecies" of a mouldy old tome written by self-hating mysoginists, most of whom lived in caves hiding from the Romans because the Romans knew they were nuts,  never stops amazing me.

My $.02.

Wink
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
March 22, 2014, 06:57:20 AM
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
March 22, 2014, 05:50:46 AM
The debt is simply the broad money supply. A surplus on someone's accounting books, profit, makes no difference unless it causes a loan repayment that works its way back to the central bank and causes some of those trillions to be deleted from the system.

We've had this debate already and I already won it with a slam dunk:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5654081
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 19, 2014, 11:25:15 PM
What is the loan secured on ? What is the debtors ability to pay ? What is the creditors ability to enforce repayment ?

Answers: 1) The taxpayer 2) None so the loans will be charged to the taxpayer 3) The police, courts, and tax authority are very good at seizing assets and making sure people pay taxes.
 
The bank has had to write off his debt - though ultimately public money is being used to put right the banks losses, which for me is the crux of the problem today.

Agreed, I would call that process socialism. It could also be called collectivism which is the same thing.  
There was a time in US history when our leaders understood the dangers.

Quote from: President Jackson (February 1834)
Gentlemen! I too have been a close observer of the doings of the Bank of the United States. I have had men watching you for a long time, and am convinced that you have used the funds of the bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst you, and when you lost, you charged it to the bank. You tell me that if I take the deposits from the bank and annul its charter I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin! Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin! You are a den of vipers and thieves. I have determined to rout you out, and by the Eternal, (bringing his fist down on the table) I will rout you out!

When asked to name his greatest accomplishment Jackson replied simply "I killed the bank"
He is also the only president to ever pay off the national debt.

Quote from: Andrew Jackson, Farewell Address, March 4, 1837
But you must remember, my fellow-citizens, that eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty, and that you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing.  It behooves you, therefore, to be watchful in your States as well as in the Federal Government.

Sadly we were not vigilant. It took 77 years but the bank rose from the dead. Pushback against collectivism has subsequently grown more feeble with each successive generation. The irresistible trend is towards ever greater centralization, ever greater loss of fitness, and ever greater taxation. It will continue until the system collapses. In the US we complain about these problems but the US is actually one of the healthiest countries. We will be among the last to fail. The design of our government and a strong libertarian minority have given us a degree of resistance. It is not immunity (far from it) rather we are simply succumbing at a slower rate to the disease. It is our exported "freedom" that is the most virulent.

hero member
Activity: 770
Merit: 500
March 19, 2014, 03:24:23 PM
Re. global debt (and its circa $150 trillion).

What is the loan secured on ? What is the debtors ability to pay ? What is the creditors ability to enforce repayment ?

A buddy of mine was recently made bankrupt - he was not on his own.

  The bank couldn't seize his assets because by the time he was made bankrupt he had none  Undecided

  He still lives and breathes and eats and walks his dog - he is happy even. In fact, he is more happy today than when he had a pile of debt hanging around his neck.

    The bank has had to write off his debt - though ultimately public money is being used to put right the banks losses, which for me is the crux of the problem today.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
this statement is false
March 19, 2014, 01:56:08 PM
Quote
Central bank was invented a the end of the Middle Ages, but it wasn't ubiquitous until the 20th century. In addition to the $223 trillion debt which is 313% of global GDP,

Translation: on average, a debt takes a whopping 3.13 years to repay. A contrary argument could be that thanks to all the technology, interconnectedness, and trust between groups of people, millions of friendly IOUs are lasting longer than ever before.

that's not what this means at all. it would take 3.13 years to repay only if every profit made globally was applied to the debt for that entire period of time. which is impossible because everybody would starve and/or freeze to death in about a month...
hero member
Activity: 518
Merit: 521
March 18, 2014, 10:46:38 PM
http://blog.mpettis.com/2014/03/will-emerging-markets-come-back/#comment-21244

Quote from: AnonyMint
Even the IMF has admitted that global debt is at a 200 year high. Central bank was invented a the end of the Middle Ages, but it wasn't ubiquitous until the 20th century. In addition to the $223 trillion debt which is 313% of global GDP, there is something on the order of $quadrillion of derivatives and another $quadrillion of actuarial promises to society which are unfunded. Central banking being the omnipresent lender of last resort is the cause of humongous monstrosity, because it prevented liquidation of TBTF throughout the 20th century.

For example the emerging markets are heavily laden with corporate dollar bond debt because due to ZIRP the fixed income investments (e.g. pensions) were forced to seek higher returns abroad. Thus emerging markets are mathematically betting short the dollar. Thus as capital flees the peripheral (i.e. non-reserve currency) markets (to include Europe and Japan by next year), there will be massive strength in the value of the reserve currency (the dollar) in 2015 and concomitant doubling in the NYSE index. This would put a spiraling (the toilet bowl) pressure on emerging markets, because they will be repaying debt with weakening local currencies. This will spiral until they exhaust dollar reserves and default on external debt, because once you take away the bubble veneer, none of them have positive current accounts. Argentina is approaching default the earliest probably in 2016.

Central banking is an abject failure.

But there is currently no better solution on tap. The fundamental issue and potential solution is much deeper than I can insert into a blog comment.

See also:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.5775371
member
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Cryptocurrencies Exchange
March 18, 2014, 06:59:09 AM
Information price is according to how easy it is to access. Internet might make it priceless but at same time it is good thing.
legendary
Activity: 1946
Merit: 1055
March 18, 2014, 05:51:58 AM
Communism is a monetary based system, The venus project advocates a system where money simply no longer exists.

Money is simply a medium of exchange. Eliminate money and all you have done is limit the ability to trade goods and services.
In a hypothetical society without currency power lies with those who control the means of production. A society without currency lacks the ability to effectively trade as barter is highly inefficient. Individuals in such a world would be completely dependent on the producers in this case robots. So who gets to own or control the robots?

If the answer is we all do equally or the government does and the people control the government the system is communism. See the Definition of Communism.

Regarding technological surplus requiring new operating paradigms, I'm pretty sure that for the indefinite future people will use their social leverage to increase their power, and that social leverage will be primarily monetary or military for as far out as I can usefully plan.  That said, if a critical mass of talent were to focus efforts on creating a sustainable autonomic technical system incorporating productive capacity to support the full human life-cycle, it would probably be doable in a decade or two.  

This could work as a form of base human income funded by taxation on a prosperous overall competitive economy. However, the key operative word is sustainable meaning resources have to be rationed in such a system. This circles us back to the question of how do we achieve said rationing?

What I like about the Dark Enlightenment (which I had actually never heard of prior to a month ago) is that it has given me a ton of outside the box thinking to look through. Each of those little dots on the map above is a blog of some sort. I am sure some of it will be garbage but there will also be gems. I have started with the political philosophy of Menicus Moldbug since he is described as the founder of the neoreactionaries (the purple section of the map). His Gentle Introduction to Unqualified Reservations is essentially a detailed walk-through of Complaint the Third: Democracy is a failure. It's a very long but fascinating read.


legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 17, 2014, 09:31:53 PM
Regarding technological surplus requiring new operating paradigms, I'm pretty sure that for the indefinite future people will use their social leverage to increase their power, and that social leverage will be primarily monetary or military for as far out as I can usefully plan.  That said, if a critical mass of talent were to focus efforts on creating a sustainable autonomic technical system incorporating productive capacity to support the full human life-cycle, it would probably be doable in a decade or two.  It's very analogous to a moon shot with 1960s tech, but more achievable, less of a stretch.  I imagine any such community of interest would have to be quite wealthy, and open-ended, with a strong coherent vision to which people would attach/detach over time.  Hard to see it happening without a personality cult of leadership, but a strongly coherent thesis could attract highly rationalistic people, just as e.g. the strongly coherent King leadership attracted highly moralistic people during the civil rights movement.  Once the system works, it should provide essentially unlimited surplus as it would have to be self-replicating in order to be sustainable against shock, so expanding it to all willing persons would be feasible.  The cultic aspects are likely to repel many, however, at least in a first generation.

Creating plenty would of course make the system an enemy of those who gain their power by enforcing scarcity.  There would be blood.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
March 17, 2014, 09:19:41 PM
Quote
Lets just call this what it is a modern day repackaging of communism.

Communism is a monetary based system, The venus project advocates a system where money simply no longer exists.

I don't see how the venus project relates to communism, In the venus project there is no "To each according to his ability and needs" It's more like "Are you a human being? then you should have a home,food, and access to technology and transportation"

There are no "jobs" in the venus project, There are no business or corporations, It advocates replacing the role of man as a cog in the machine with robots and computers to do the drudgery.



Oh, great.

My $.02.

Wink

It didn't actually communicate anything.  More like a clipping from a thinly worn farthing perhaps.  Or a vague shininess left on a rough surface after you dragged a cupronickel clad coin across the surface.  Or maybe just the smell of thinking about it.
sr. member
Activity: 321
Merit: 250
March 17, 2014, 08:29:20 PM
Quote
Lets just call this what it is a modern day repackaging of communism.

Communism is a monetary based system, The venus project advocates a system where money simply no longer exists.

I don't see how the venus project relates to communism, In the venus project there is no "To each according to his ability and needs" It's more like "Are you a human being? then you should have a home,food, and access to technology and transportation"

There are no "jobs" in the venus project, There are no business or corporations, It advocates replacing the role of man as a cog in the machine with robots and computers to do the drudgery.

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