Topic: Economic Devastation - page 139. (Read 504813 times)

What you are describing precedes globalization.  What happens today is that labour gets off shored to cheaper labor markets.  Within the US you start to see a division between classes

I  understand the importance of knowledge, inventions and automation, but I propose that it does not fundamentally change the economic system. The appearant problem of automation has been the focus of people who do not understand the fundamentals of a free market since the beginning of the industrial revolution. They where called Luddites.

The point is that in reality, the machines are not the driving force. It is the scarcity of human labour that is the motivation to invest in labour saving equipment. If there is no scarcity of labour, there is no need to invest.

Then, every economic change, meaning every economic change, for whatever reason that change come by, will produce winners and losers. That is inevitable. Persons losing their job is obviously the immediate losers. That is all the Luddites see. But persons keeping the job in a factory with outdated machines are also losers, their wages will fall back compared to the general labour market. Eventually, shed workers will find new jobs, the lower paid workers mentioned above will move to better paid jobs, and the economy again runs smoothly on a higher production level, favoring all.

If there is a gain from the technology then some will see unemployment but society is gaining all that time of change so in net total it is a positive not a disaster.      There is no good reason why USA would have to fail dramatically, that only occurs if events are totally unyielding.    As failure occurs, adjustment will happen.    As above, as some find their jobs are not useful or redundant they will transition elsewhere and it is reasonable to consider that some who lose jobs to new technology are richer in their new work.
    If this gov screws up the debt (further) and refuses to give way, it could end up in war but that is an absolute extreme.  It might also be that gov debt fails, they default or haircut the value and then we move on.   Some loss occurs, some are worse off but overall it is possible to benefit from failure and this is irony that is missed but perfectly possible.   When gov or failure occurs it could be the negatives from their current behaviour is no longer there and society benefits; this is the base line to capitalism .
  Ironically this struggle, and loss, win to business and constant competition is still a positive for all involved overall and that includes those who lose business, or lose money or in the case of an entire country losing their reserve currency.  It results in mutual benefit to discontinue inefficient practise

Devastation is a myth

Inflation and the Fall of the Roman Empire
http://mises.org/daily/3663

So much info...so much possibility for disinfo...where do I even begin.

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Armstrong's amazing economics correlation prediction models
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Fri, July 4, 2014 9:03 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
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Kudos to Martin Armstrong (the former $1+ trillion hedge fund manager of the Japanese Postal fund-- largest fund ever) on getting back focused on his expert computerized A.I. models (and stop wasting time trying to convince socialist citizens to reform themselves or blaming everything on bureaucrats and not also on the socialist citizens)...

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/03/then-now-always-the-same/

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/07/02/when-will-the-monetary-system-crack/




Regarding the comparison of today to the peak and decline of the Athens empire, I note from the following chronological timeline:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_ancient_Greece

http://ancienthistory.about.com/od/democracy/qt/121009AthensTimeline.htm

So 408 B.C. for Athens should correlate to 2032 A.D. for us now. Interestingly we see that in 433-432 B.C. the Greek empire coalition fails and infighting begins. That was 24-25 years before the peak in 408 (count backwards in B.C. time) so that would correspond to 2007-8 now which is exactly when the first stage of the sovereign debt crisis exploded with Sub-Prime defaults in the USA.

Also note that infighting was due to economic decline and a fight for available resources, which is similar now to how teachers' unions in the USA are saying to raise taxes to pay their salaries and retirement plans. Raising taxes will further implode economic activity and collapse the economy. The problem is we spent more than we had, and now the defaults and decline are unavoidable.

We can see on the timeline that up until 426-425, Athens grew stronger than the peripheral regions and was defeating them. Then by 414 (which will correspond to our 2016), Athens (which corresponds to our USA) started to fall weaker than the periphery in battle.

The USA is clearly coming stronger right now as capital is fleeing the rest of the world (periphery) and into USA stocks and real estate as a safe haven. But 2016 will mark the peak of the USA.

Then you can see that by 416-415 (our 2024), Athens (the USA!) falls to massacres and total chaos.

And then by 408 (our 2032), Athens falls over a cliff economically and socially until hitting rock bottom in 404.

Then after 404, the public wave starts where even Socrates is executed by the idealistic youth government that takes over. Don't forget the generational wave research I shared previously which predicts this nasty Orwellian control aspect of the public wave which follows 2032:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6551625

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.6551755


So here is what we can expect. USA will grow stronger until 2016, then it will decline until finally total chaos by 2024. There could be a lot of war before 2024, probably after 2018 or so. Between 2024 and 2032 will be total chaos as the world fights capitulation, until there is finally total capitulation in 2032 and then we crash into a global economic bottom by 2036.

So 2016 is the beginning of the slide into the abyss. And it will get worse until 2036. Twenty years of worsening suffering.

But during that time, high technology (e.g. robotics, 3d printing, crypto-currency) will prosper and many in high tech will become very rich. Remember the Oxford study in 2013 predicted 47% of all existing jobs will be replaced by computer automation with the 20 years to 2032-33.

This period will be very unfamiliar to most people as the world is shifting from socialism to autonomous, decentralized sovereign high tech individuals.

The Knowledge Age is replacing the Industrial Age:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/economic-devastation-355212

Collectivized society will decline and shrink economically into a bottom in 2036, while the Knowledge Age will grow all during this period.

This is my final communication.


---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Question: timing on the bottom for BRICs, NICs?
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Fri, July 4, 2014 1:17 pm
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
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Okay Western civilization falls off the capitulation cliff 2032 and
bottoms 2036 as the Public Wave begins.

When do the BRICs, NICs countries bottom?

How far back do they collapse? 1992 level? 1999 level? 2007 level?

You fail to understand the linked essays in the OP.

The repeating historical evidence of economic collapse corresponding with technological unemployment is that people don't adjust their education and skills fast enough to keep up. They especially resist by using debt to delay their adjustment.

This is misunderstanding of basic economy.  People do investments to increase productivity. But that capital has a cost, so they would not waste it.

When productivity over all increases, workers will leave the less productive firms and join the more productive. The reason is that work is the most general productive factor of all. Then the less productive firms must consider investing in more capital, calculate if it makes economical sense. If it does, they will do it, else the firm will shrink or die. This releases capital and work for more productive uses. This is the basis of growth. We sometimes see the reverse, when wages shrink, capital is consumed and held at a lower level, reducing productivity and more workers join the industry.

Very impressive, looks like Ed209.  The future is now, I'd be blown away if it was autonomous especially or is it remotely controlled or specifically pre programmed is what I expect


Guys this is covered by Luddism and also Adam Smith I think.   If an invention makes a task easier, society will benefit even while some jobs become redundant.   Maybe the majority of a population were employed in agriculture at one point in time; all those jobs disappeared, yet we do well because we are wasting less time (or do more in less time at least, then waste time at leisure not work)


Its been here for hundreds of years.   Even an accurate watch makes someone unemployed but also enables greater efficiency and common power to society, we do gain from better products and especially when they get cheaper.  This partly also explains cheap imports (and why 1933 import tariffs were wrong) and also possibly even cheap labour/immigration; beneficial yet glaringly 'job stealing'  (cheap products make people better off)

Just what IS it with all these robots? They're putting people out of work--if a robot is doing a job, a person isn't. Also, they're used militarily to KILL people. But the real stupidity of it all is, why are we building these machines to our detriment?

Technological unemployment is here...

http://www.infowars.com/google-to-start-selling-humanoid-robot/

Is it also effected by the amount of money tied up in bonds.   Im not sure the amount of trade diverted is yet adding up to much considering world gdp growth.

Also im wondering if the high velocity of things like bitcoin is in some way compensating for turgid markets elsewhere where competition and free enterprise is restricted(regulated), hence very high velocity in cryptocurrency

Thanks for your posts anonymint!

Just curious, do you believe there is any accuracy to these (or any) fiat statistics?  After using coin networks for some years we become accustomed to actually knowing the money supply, days destroyed, transactions per sec., etc..   For me there is a stark contrast between this kind of transparency and the numbers we hear thrown around in the fiat realm (80 billion per month QE, velocity decreasing, GDP, etc).  However it seems you are putting some import on this particular metric despite the lack of transparency in measurement technique or verifiability.  Could you explain why? 

Cheers -- 

You don't seem to understand relative size. The volume drop far exceeds the rise of any use of other currencies.

I added the chart to the prior post.

Velocity has gone down because many countries are starting to use their own currency on bilateral trade.

---------------------------- Original Message ----------------------------
Subject: Self-reliance-- the brake on a Mad Max outcome
From:    AnonyMint
Date:    Wed, June 25, 2014 1:05 am
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
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http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/06/24/will-society-ever-wake-up/


Let's not conflate self-reliance with sheep waking up. It is true that self-reliance varies geographically and culturally. It is true that the coming implosion of the sovereign debt bubble will reduce the world to it's respective self-reliant foundations.

Although it is true that the developing world is more self-reliant, this self-reliance sits at a much lower level of subsistence than the level that their economies have been inflated to with massive corporate debt. In short, a significant chunk of their current GDP is reliant on corporate debt. China's corporate debt is the highest in the world.

After the oligarchy collapses the global debt into self-reliance of Armstrong's private wave in 2032, thus placing themselves in the driver's seat to issue new debt at the birth of the public wave. The youth are fully indoctrinated with the idealism of a new public wave society as I had detailed in prior communications wherein I shared the generational wave research.

The oligarchy are moving us into a very 666-like controlled Technocracy for this coming public wave.

In short, the self-reliance of the world is non-existent in the West (for at least 50 - 95% of the population depending on the nation) and it is a just a few hairs above subsistence level in the developing world. Some in the developing world have gained technological skills, but they lack the capital to build it out themselves and they entirely lack the innovative capital to build it in the autonomous, decentralized Knowledge Age that replaces this dying Industrial Age, i.e. chopping off the top of the poppy seeds in China (not allowing anyone to stand up) has destroyed ingenuity and individualism, which is essential for innovation in the individualized Knowledge Age coming.

So here is what will happen. The world will collapse into the peak of the private wave to something a few hairs above subsistence level. The oligarchy will fill the need to reorganize the world on a global standard to restart debt anew at the birth of the public wave 2032.

The hackers will be driving the fledgling Knowledge Age during this interim time, which will be where the real foundational growth in the global economy derives.

Only frontiers have saved humanity. The collective would destroy itself otherwise.

Good, that makes me feel better about my viewpoint . it's something i'm still developing as to what the ideal system of governance might be

in regards to edit 2, yes, I'm a bit skeptical as to how frictional such a protocol would be but it's an interesting experiment and I'm curiously watching

We are aligned here. It's not feudalistic. Voluntary is the key. Someone can choose not to cooperate, but that wouldn't be much fun.

No comment to the last part, except, there doesn't have to be a technologial solution to the trade and cooperation problem. Make it simple.