Topic: Economic Devastation - page 90. (Read 504776 times)

I showed that that in a system without hierarchial structure failure to converge to a fitness landscape will occur if entropy exceeds an critical level. I did so with a simplified biological model where this result can be shown definitively and mathamatically. The same model shows a lack entropy will also result in a failure to converge and that increasing entropy will increase the rate of convergence until an inflection point is reached. Pushing entropy beyond this inflection point will slow convergence. Beyond the error threshold the system won't converge at all.

You have countered that this model is not applicaple to real human societies which are obviously far more complex than simple nuclaic acid chains. You also countered that such extreme entropy will never occur in human societies since we naturally self organize to follow leaders (thought leaders, religious leaders, politicians, gang leaders, warlords, ect).

The applicability of the model is a fair challenge. However, I see little reason to think that the same general rules do not apply to our more complex society. You correctly pointed out that there is an asymmetry of systemic risk today with the risk of collectivism far exceeding the risks of individualism. I agree, however, the reason our current system is dangerous is not because it is excessivly rigid. A system that was mearly excessivly ordered would still eventually (if very slowly) converge on optimal outcomes. The system poises a systemic risk because it is grossly unsustainable.

The true risks arise from possibility of complete systemic collapse. This raises the specter of the Mad Max scenario. It is possible that an unstable order will breakdown so completly that entropy will rise uncontrollable and rapidly. Our society (like the simple biological model) can also exceed an error threshold. This occurs when knowledge is systemically destroyed rather than created. Think worldwide loss of electricity, nulcear holocaust, survival of the fittest with mass starvation. These are all extreme entropy scenarios where knowledge would be systemically lost.  


I would agree with this and add to it that order becomes cancer the moment it becomes unsustainable and incapable of self correcting. Chaos is the risk that arises from the inevitable death of the cancer.

Is chaos theory not part of natural order, also I think extremes can bare resemblance.    



I agree with that and and capitalism by its nature is far more segmented then what we currently have which is basically centrally determined capital worth.   Large parts of society still favour a more central solution to problems, with less freedom for individual elements.   Whether it works or not, its more prone to failure

Porsche did not have to declare their accumulation of VW shares I think was the main problem.  No doubt some trickery was used against them also but if open disclosure had occurred in the market as they got into larger amounts of VW then the system should have worked ok without the spike occurring.  I dont blame Porsche but sometimes just because you can doesnt mean you should

We dont have debt prisons anymore, the danger is to the creditor mostly.  The big risk now is national level of debt or perhaps student debt which isnt a properly market based or dissolvable in bankruptcy because of its relation to government.  USA keeps raising the cost to exit their national tax as a foreign citizen, I think that kinda relates as at some point the cost may be so high it means the average person could never leave

Taleb's Antifragility Concept  



Edit: For those who never saw the movie

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8oAv-6i6iMI

Please re-read my upthread post with my dates and predictions for the upcoming Economic Devastation. I made significant edits to that post.

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P.S. CoinCube, I am trying to push your thread over the 100,000 'reads' (really views) milestone before I depart.

P.S.S. Yesterday evening on rolling hill terrain, I ran a 9 min. mile, rested an hour, then ran an 8 min. mile, followed by 4 x 150 meter sprints, followed by 20 minutes of aggressive basketball. An 8 min. mile is not really great for a guy that ran in the mid 4s min. mile in high school on a flat track (and sub-5 min. on hilly terrain), but at age 50 (in June) on hilly terrain and battling to recover from Multiple Sclerosis I think it is a noteworthy milestone. I used to be able to get under 6 min. mile until I got sick in 2006, even I wasn't training enough nor in great running shape. So the 8 min. mile is noteworthy only because of coming down from very slow 10+ min. mile as I have been treating my MS since start of April with high dose vitamin D3.

rpietila, I am referring to a mathematical definition of entropy where order is low entropy and disorder (chaos) is high entropy. What you are referring to is probably resiliency, fitness, and Taleb's Antifragility concept, which is maximized with higher entropy (contrary to CoinCube's assertions that chaotic systems don't converge, which is precisely why they are resilient, because the world is not convergent on a few top-down possibilities but rather a smorgasbord of divergent paths).

P.S. Something poignant from Armstrong:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/04/21/how-banks-wiped-out-eastern-europeans/

"order" is what emerges automatically

the top-down perversion of the natural order is "cancer"

"chaos" happens when order is replaced by cancer, which dies - it will soon become "order" again


(I think nature can more accurately be called "orderly" than "chaotic" yet pundits use these words interchangeably to mean the same thing)

Dates back to Nixon and before that even.    The reason its got this far is nixon both devalued and allowed China into the trade system, Japan and Saudi Arabia all support the Dollar system, crucial exporters to the world    
Our view is to judge USA alone as it is most visible and its political deficit as likely to fail but what has happened is massive support from all around the world, of course China is much bigger so could this current 'failing system' continue for 20 years.   I do believe its broken but also usa is a minor part of the world production now so I think this is how it is possible to both broken and continue so long as others will it.   If China was capitalist not communist based I dont think they would be as biased to external elements like they are but it suits their enpowered elite

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-g2iGskFPE
Old video before my time but pretty much refering to the same thing, that this deficit spending should not or could not continue, in 1965 and now fifty years later he was both right and wrong I guess

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Subject: Pen is mightier than the sword; coming War Cycle will be mostly propaganda
Date:    Tue, April 21, 2015 5:57 pm
To:      "Armstrong Economics" <[email protected]>
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Recall my quotes of Howard Katz upthread wherein he stated, "THE PEN IS MIGHTIER THAN THE SWORD".

I was discussing the likelihood of a Russian EMP attack on the USA here and here, and basically it doesn't seem likely because the global elite want to maintain control.

The elite needed WW2 to prod the USA into war so they could take over the country with a corrupted central bank and income tax fueled by the need to borrow massively during that period. At this time, there are no such strong countries that resist the NWO, thus there is no need for total chaos. Instead the elite want a controlled burn. What we are seeing now is scripted show between globalists' elite controlled countries and leaders (e.g. the Russia vs. NATO scripted conflict propaganda), to scare and lead the masses into the NWO. Nevertheless globalist the-powers-that-be want to raise the fear factor as much as possible to keep the Marxist (reliance on government) sheep locked into the headlights all the way through. Thus limited EMP attack is not implausible, if they are sure they can prevent this from spinning out-of-control to full scale nuclear war. Rather it is much more likely this will be a "virtual war" where the war is mostly about propaganda on mass and social media (a viral disease of collectivist political correctness mass delusion) to program the minds of the masses to accept the NWO savior. Do you understand now why the CIA and bankster's such as Goldman and JP Morgan financed Facebook and control every major mass media operation? Thus if you are addicted to Alex Jones (Infowars, etc), ZeroHedge, or any other hyperventilated, sensationalists media outlet, then you are already hooked into this "virtual war" mind programming. You probably stack gold too which is another confirmation.

In short, Armstrong's coming War Cycle will be an informational war, because we have moved into the information age. Also because people are mostly zombies now (rational, critical, independent thinkers are rare).

There will be a POTUS "election" in November 2016 but it will be a farce and this will propel the rebellion after 2016 which leads to the breakup of the USA over the coming decades, especially as the economy turns down hard starting later in 2017. For the elite's NWO plans, all that matters is to control the mass media propaganda that will portray patriotic civil disobedience as anarchy, warlordism, terrorism, extremism, and lack of order (i.e. chaos).

As I wrote previously, it won't be until after 2017 that the USA turns down hard economically (although the actuarial decline is underway and accelerating, it is masked by the international capital inflows and the $trillion cash deficits to keep the masses oblivious).

As I wrote previously, the USA peaked and began it's decline on April 2013 with Edward Snowden's expose.

As I wrote previously, a global pandemic circa 2018-2019 could be caused by or exacerbate the coming wars.

I have written many times about China's ruling party being fully on board for the plan of the global elite to turn the world into a global technocracy, most recently here from page 8 of iamback's posts. Technocracy means a world controlled from the top-down, including for example Smart Meters in the home so that even they can monitor and shut off your appliances from the central command station.

P.S. Anyone on the lookout for something I might be working on should note the post I made in the Skycoin thread.

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coinits

When I referred to Jimmy Carter, it is important to understand the "zeitgeist" of many of us back then.  Arab oil embargo.  Sweater clad morose president.  Right-wing talk radio was just getting started.

That was the first (and only) time I bought some rural property (in S Central TX, remote, w/ water, nice lil ol place).  I thought I was ready to head for the hills when the hammer dropped...  LOL!  Right, like I could farm...

Through the years my feelings re the US economy have ebbed and flowed.  I got concerned again in 1999 (like many others).  After 9/11, I switched into a higher gear, and was lucky to get gold in the $600 range, wish I had bought a LOT MORE...



Then the 2004 - 2006 Housing Bubble, ugh.  When 2007 (Bear-Stearns) and then scary 2008 (yikes!) happened, I felt like there was a 50-50 chance that something REALLY BAD was going to happen, and very soon.  Ah well, not so much...  Not in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and so far in 2015.  Even though:

NONE of our financial problems have been solved.   <=== bad sign

NO ONE of significance has gone to jail re the financial crisis.   <=== another bad sign

WHY the system has not cratered or reset yet I do not know, other than reading history which does show that dangerous financial distortions can go on for many, many years...   And usually end in Black Swans, that very few can foresee.  I have tried to foresee such things, and am usually wrong (short term), but my record is better given enough time.  This could all go south very soon, or like TPTB_n_w suggests in 2 - 3 years.  My inclination is to *guess* that King Dollar will reign a little while longer.  

Signs (IMO) to look for:

1)  A BIG spike in the US$ (more so than now)

2)  Hillary as president (OMG, did I really write that?!)

3)  Iran/Middle East/China/Ukraine war starts emerging (and so far NOTHING serious there yet)

4)  Grexit -- I think that the euro will have many problems after that.  Not much time to prepare after that so stay alert if that happens

Hey, but I'm just another Internet pundit.

ZH has some useful posts, buried in a smorgasbord of hyperventilated noise.

Well I disagree with your opinion of ZH. Martin is now submitting articles to ZH.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-19/martin-armstrong-understanding-jacksons-bank-war-critical-our-future

Look here also http://ocw.mit.edu/courses/electrical-engineering-and-computer-science/6-050j-information-and-entropy-spring-2008/videos-homework-and-readings/unit1-lecture-2/
at aprox 1:00:00,
Mailed him if he has a paper handy but he replied there are only drafts yet.
Trying to find more I came accross this blog
http://informationtransfereconomics.blogspot.gr with awful a lot to consume, seems like other disciplines are converging in economics that may get fresh ideas

Coinits OROBTC has been around a lot longer than I. It seems probable that I hold the same advantage on you. Age grants wisdom and OROBTC's advice in this area is very sound. I am comfortable going on record to state that your prediction above will not happen.

TPTB I agree with your comments that the transition to a knowledge age is profound and a game changer. I suspect if we drilled down to the core of our remaining divergence we would once again find that it is largely a philosophical one.

As we are both busy at the moment lets table that (probably unresolvable) debate for another day.
We agree more than we disagree. That will suffice for now.

CoinCube, I had already addressed your latest post, well before you wrote it as follows.


The problem is not leverage. Rather root of the problem has been that capital enslaved labor until (just recently) knowledge became the predominant component of production startup costs.

Think it out[1] and you will see the generative essence of the issues you are raising are all due to the fact that capital enslaved labor and this actually supported (and required![2]) the large collectivization of society.


[1] Map out all the relationships and trace the generative essence though the "directed graph". My brain did this instantly.

[2] This is a deep point I haven't emphasized enough.

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I have two soulmates on this forum.    

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Weird shit with the Walmart story. Not quite sure what to make of all this, but I lean towards bizarre outcomes for the USA no later than 2018.


Stop with the ZeroHedge noise. The USA stock market is going to double or triple by 2017.

ZeroHedge's paradigm is a lot hyperventilated adrenalin to get you hooked on their site. But most of it is short-term myopia.

I became much more sane and made wiser trading decisions when I stopped reading ZH and started reading Armstrong.

Jimmy Carter? It's 2008 all over again so not that long ago. This time will be worse. Much worse. There is no liquidity in markets. It smoke and mirrors. Operation Jade Helm about to go in to effect nation wide. Walmarts converted into detention centers.

This is it.

There will never be another US Election. The US Constitution will be suspended making Obama a Dictator.

This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-18/technical-signaled-last-two-market-crashes-and-it-just-happened

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coinits

I have been feeling that "The End Is Nigh" since Jimmy Carter (young people Google that name).

IMO, something very bad will happen, probably "relatively soon", but I have given up trying to time this.  Also, I have no idea what the trigger will be (a debt default perhaps, a sudden war maybe, a big attack glitch/internet attack, a "bolt from the blue", a financial trigger, etc.).

The way I have dealt with these concerns is to have slowly prepped for decades.  Gold.  Guns.  No debt.

My two major holes are that I have no water & food production systems, nor a rural farm.  We are pretty well set up otherwise.

Note that I am NOT up to speed for TPTB_n_W´s suggestions re a high skill set for a Knowledge Age.  His thinking is of great interest, and he may be right.

*   *   *

I always appreciate when people offer up specifics, so thank you.  All such information, whether the prediction comes true or not, goes into the hopper...



EDIT: Erdogan and coinits psted while I was composing this...  

From saddletramp:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKPas09bInk


IMF admits that their GDP forecast is not realistic. European central banks dumping Greek assets ahead of the Greek Exit.

Consumer confidence up, while retail stores close, real estate declines, layoffs and manufacturing implodes.

Obama administration least transparent.OSCE registers Kiev moving tanks and other equipment to the contact line.

Russia sees Minsk II deal violated by the arrival of the US troops.

US pushing the propaganda that Assad used chlorine gas with no evidence.

New report, Iran has the capabilities of cyber attacking the US.

Cyber hackers targeting nuclear and electric facilities.