Topic: Economic Devastation - page 94. (Read 504811 times)

Some insight:

http://blog.mpettis.com/2015/02/when-do-we-decide-that-europe-must-restructure-much-of-its-debt/#comment-121159

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My point was same. That only the free market can regulate it. And I said we need transparency of reserve ratios, not a CB.

Wekkel, sorry you didn't understand my post (what is the point of repeating what I already wrote?). I ask aminorex to try to explain it, if he agrees with me.

You are suffering from similar myopia as Denninger. Price discovery, hedging, maximization of fit, etc over events that have fractal or non-linear change requires the higher order model of Black-Scholes.

Sorry CoinCube, I am not going to be able to teach all the people. I am going to have go introverted and just do what I think will help me and others who have similar views and needs as I do.

The A.I. computer has apparently figured that out and it is very complex and it is isn't only the interference of just two cycles.

Essentially the computer could map all the possibilities and then determine which complex relationship holds true for all dates for different cyclical events.

It isn't really A.I. rather exhaustive search. It might be A.I. in a sense if the computer is altering the structure of what it is searching for based on entropy of its input data set. But as I pointed in my essay, it isn't A.I. in the sense that it is not interacting with the unbounded (in time) entropy of the evolutionary environment:

http://unheresy.com/Information%20Is%20Alive.html#Algorithm_!=_Entropy

I sure as hell won't register on his board since I like a 'free' environment. Nevertheless, I am intrigued by the debate insofar it regards the creation of non-backed credit. I have not seen this point refuted or disassembled by either you or Armstrong. I find that strange, since the point is very easy to grasp. If someone can create unbacked credit that (i) functions as money but (ii) does nothing to enhance society (Denninger uses the example of using credit to either build productive assets or not), why allow for it? If I understand Denninger correctly, he merely opposes banks creating credit that is not backed by either collateral or the bank's own capital. The rebuttal of Armstong is, well ... let's stay honest .... appalling. I Iearned nothing from Armstrong on this point. Can't he write a simple rebuttal that makes sense?

In the end, you can't argue maths. The only question is which maths apply

But I won't burn my fingers on this topic and let the Behemoths fight it out.

Could you say the business cycle wave and the "international crisis cycle" wave however you may define them may be interconnected?

wavefronts interference. The business cycle is not the same wave as the international crisis cycle. This is why you would need computer to search all of fractal patterns and pull out the cycles from the interference.

Because he had better repute and possibly better fluency in math than Terence McKenna?

The dates appear to increase in frequency, supporting the idea that the pattern of economic cycles repeats in increasingly rapid intervals, and since the 8.6 year average is a linear statistic... is that what you were getting at?

INTJs seem to prefer what they can enumerate and apply with forethought. And they are skeptical of any claim without instances of proof.

So if we claim that competitive anarchy is better, yet anarchy never existed, they may fail to see how we are any less deluded than they are.

If we argue that all instances of involuntary collectivism have eventually devolved to a horrible end game, they can counter that no instances of anarchy have prevented it. I can counter that individual empowerment (a.k.a. frontiers) is what has mitigated unrestrained coercion of collectivism and prevented the extreme event of extinction (cancer killing the host). They can counter that I have no proof of that.

We on the Perception side are capable of visualizing that a conceptual paradigm has certain impacts without needing to prove it with equations and precise data. They don't trust this. It unconvincing to them.

Would that be accurate CoinCube?

CoinCube is probably correct that we will be unable to mitigate all the impacts of the coming collapse. And we will argue that our efforts have provided some relief and that we should aim to attain more individual empowerment against the coercion of the collective. CoinCube will probably continue to doubt whether the free market can always provide justice and continue to think it will have some downsides which could go to extremes if we were to eliminate the State entirely. And we counter that he can't prove that either.

I say we all go accomplish and do what we want. And each other make our choices. And let the chips fall where they may.

Life is complex.

(I understand CoinCube's point but I can't possibly bring myself to support large government. Small, local governments I can tolerate, as long as I can walk away when they start devolving).

Can anyone explain why even though the dates in the following chart do not align on a 8.6 year cycle, that Armstrong is not deviating from the scientific method?



P.S. This is a test. I can explain it. Hint, pay careful attention to what the dates represent and what the 8.6 cycle represents and then read his other post and this one.

Do you believe a hierarchical government could trump an egalitarian anarchy with enough "effort, intelligence, and consideration"?



Edit: highlight for reasoning

it's a trick question of sorts. "Trump by what standards?" you may ask.
Meant to show that absolutely, an anarchy can allow hierarchical government but not vice versa.


Edit 2: I said "corroborated". Your point corroborates your posit. I will counterargue that to me, one of the definers of these models carries greater weight than the practitioners in terms of interpretation of his system's definitions...

Or perhaps not.

http://www.16personalities.com/intj-personality

We never left the main topic. The "utilitarian" Marxism system (i.e. encompassing its intransigent ideologically intoxicated support of the people) is retarding the people's the adaptation to the Knowledge Age, by bribing and intoxicating them with ideology, debt, welfare, etc..


I can't even change your mind on the real coercion being mass murder at the end game, and you still want a War on Human Trafficking and a War on Teenage Pregnancy.

Reprogramming the minds of Marxist masses has never been accomplished and never will be.

All we can do is make tools which we individuals can use to protect ourselves against the Marxist masses. Those who want to save themselves will educate themselves on how to use these tools.

Our odds of succeeding in protecting ourselves individually are probably quite high. We will employ many different tools, strategies and circumstances, i.e. a free market of autonomous actors.

You see your mind is still stuck in Marxism. You are always thinking about the plight of the entire society, as if any humans really have any control over that whatsoever. Sorry to tell you, nature is on auto-pilot. You'd better focus on yourself. Make sure you read James A. Donald's comments I linked in the prior post. He explains why this desire to sacrifice yourself (or even your dog) for people far away that you will never meet, is why you end up supporting mass murder just as the German citizens enthusiastically supporting Hitler.

It is really a mental disease. Sorry. I know you have a good heart and intentions, but your rationality has fallen into an irrational emotional ideology.


http://accelus.thomsonreuters.com/special-report/money-laundering-and-corruption-meeting-new-responsibilities

So let's see. Does the State have women's best interests at heart with the campaign to stop marriage below age 18:

http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/child-marriage/p32096#!/

There is Rockefeller's Council on Foreign Relations again, that Aaron Russo mentioned (in the context of feminism, a.k.a. "women's lib") in the video I linked in the prior post.

Surely it is beneficial for all females to wait until after 18 to marry and first focus on education correct? How could the truth be any other way! It is obvious correct?

WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now here is a test for readers. Who can best summarize why it is not optimal?

I'll give you a hint (anyone with daughters better read this!):

http://blog.jim.com/culture/the-ancestral-environment-of-females/
http://blog.jim.com/culture/the-false-life-plan/
http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-future-belongs-to-those-that-show-up/
http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-cause-of-population-decline/
http://blog.jim.com/economics/the-collapse-of-fertility/
http://blog.jim.com/culture/religiosity-and-fertility-wrong-metric/
http://blog.jim.com/culture/the-damage-caused-by-diversity/ (top-down meddling makes everything worse)
http://blog.jim.com/war/obamaphone/ (here is what top-down meddling accomplishes)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934#comment-400335
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4934#comment-400492
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397694
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397806
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397846
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397859
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397863
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397927
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397928 (this is so true, you can make a woman want you by staring her lips up close)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425228
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-424939
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-424867
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-424944
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=4878#comment-397948
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425062 (the feminist attempts censorship)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425150
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425152
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425160 (Eric misses the high IQ point that his individual options, are not every man's and thus not optimal societal options)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425169
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425172 (Bravo! Bravo! Eric the Marxist has a hole in his IQ)
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425178
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-424913
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-424854
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425180
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5238#comment-425190
http://esr.ibiblio.org/?p=5704#comment-573517 (Ah that is the reason Eric & I don't mix, Eric is conflicted/dumbed down by his utilitarianism, leftism)

Btw, I see Eric S Raymond mentioned the Stockholm Syndrome.

I believe that a gradual reverse followed by the slow decline of centralization would be far superior to total collapse. However, for all the reasons you mentioned this might not be possible. Achieving a reversal would require the education and awareness of a critical mass of the population. That is a very tall and perhaps impossible hurdle to clear.

Cryptocurrency is the best educational tool in this regard that has ever existed. It drives people to think about the complexities of the state, fiat currency, and centralized control. Perhaps given enough time tools such as this will allow us to reach critical mass? Our chances on that front do not appear all that favorable.

You asked earlier why I encouraged I3552 to spell out his ideas. I did so because I continue to look for a solution that would permit gradual decline rather than collapse. If he returns with further refinements to his idea I will hear him out as I will with anyone who genuinely believes they can contribute to a solution.  I accept anonymous decentralized cryptocurrency as a potential if somewhat desperate answer. It is certainly much better than doing nothing and waiting passively for centralized collapse. However, I remain (perhaps naively) hopeful that a superior solution can be found.

We have officially beaten this tangent to death. I propose letting this thread return to the the topic of Economic Devastation

The alternative is the State will waterfall collapse into the abyss killing fields. So you better pray the free market succeeds. Otherwise your worst fears will come to roost.

You think the State will slowly decline? Hell no. The end game is always a waterfall collapse into the abyss. Only free market frontiers provide for the adaptation. Without it, welcome to Dark Age. (I am being dramatic because we face something very difficult and it will require some really Herculean innovation to get us through this)

You are just coming at it from an emotional attachment to collective order as being good enough. Collective order is a mass murder paradigm (at the cyclical end game).

We've got a few years perhaps until 2018 or 2019. Maybe we still have enough time (but it is getting into late innings). Individually sovereign private assets (gold, Bitcoin, altcoins) won't kick into highest gear until after 2017.95 with the peak in the influx into the dollar and USA assets (that is 2015.75 + 8.6/4). They should bottom soon @ ≈2015.75.

Looks like Hillary Clinton will be POTUS during this descent into war which the War Cycle predicts to begin in 2017. By 2018 we are going to be descending into hell. War, USA economic collapse, and potential pandemic.

In short, the State can't help you. Only we can.

An alternative viewpoint is that Asia will bottom in 2020 and rise while the West falls over the cliff from 2020 to 2024. But maybe that is because the free market will succeed. Maybe we are destined to succeed.

My response to aminorex above succinctly summarizes my opinion on the matter.
I oppose the creation of a vacuum unless there is absolutely no other choice.  
Show me the existing not hypothetical decentralized alternative that has any realistic chance of efficiently replacing a centralized solution and I will support it enthusiastically.

You can count on me to have significant reservations about any solution that relies on destroying existing state functions in the hopes that things will just turn out ok.

I do trust that free markets will self-anneal eventually given enough time.
I obviously don't believe they anneal nearly as quickly as you do.

I am ENFP, but very close to balanced between T and F. I am very strongly N, 88%. My extroversion is obvious, lol. 50,000 forums posts in past 10 years?

I am a good programmer, perhaps even phenomenal, except my one Achilles heel is isolation makes me mentally unhealthy. I need the extroversion. Btw, I launched my new site (business) today.  

Note I was more introvert in terms of this large scale social group interaction when I was doing my greatest accomplishments in programming from mid-1980s to 2001. It took its toll on me in terms of exploding with losing an eye.

My best balance will probably come from having local, daily social interaction coupled with introversion for 8 hours a day in programming. Need to really jack up my athletics too. Starting to get back to form. Being running daily in the hot tropical sun at midday, also 100s of pushups. Starting to feel more normal and not yet 2 weeks into the high dose vitamin D3. The MS symptoms still return but milder and sometimes I feel phenomenal. Feels to me like gradually healing the brain lesions and neurological function. You can't understand how debilitating headaches and dizziness from the MS. Strange feeling I never could conceive until I had it.

Probably I went into overdrive on posting to a forum because I was countering the MS depression. Extroversion in overdrive. I need to tone it down now. And get back to what made me productive.

P.S. I want to reiterate again that CoinCube is a very respectful and caring person. It pains me to speak frankly about trusting the free market. But if I didn't speak frankly to him, I don't think I would be caring.

INTP here too

Yet only said that Judging is bad.

Anyway I don't know this methodology at all but the test was easy, and I got INTP. For what it's worth, let it be known. Likely the true practitioners could have deduced it anyway concerning me if they were interested.