Topic: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict (Read 566 times)

500 years is a very long time. That's 5 centuries ahead of us. I think the US will last for another 50 - 100 years until it's replaced by another superpower. There's speculation the EU will become a "force to reckon with" in the future. I can see China and Russia getting stronger after a US collapse. The fact that most countries have nukes, puts us on a very dangerous situation.

I'd certainly don't want to witness a full-scale nuclear war during my lifetime, as that would be catastrophic. If that happens, the human race will be eliminated for good. We better plan on moving away from Earth (Mars, maybe?) before it's too late. No one can predict the future, so we can only hope for the best. Just my opinion

^ I remember a report the other day that an Iranian Navy ship docked in Brazil. They normally won't allow this and probably they will send a threatening warning to Brasil before any ship can dock in thier backyard. It's insulting to these countries when they hear Biden considered them to be their backyard. While NATO can just turn a country into a member of NATO that is so close to Russia and still have a military base in these countries.

What is astonishing though is that they are not offering peace even when it's obvious Ukraine is not winning. The life expectancy of the Ukrainian army in the field is averaging up to 4 hours and they die. They're lucky to live in thier 5th hour in the field according to a report.

Giving up the war in Ukraine will probably be the start of chaos in the China-Taiwan conflict. But this is madness already, China is more advanced in technology. And American companies are in China which is just as devastating to all economies, not just the US economy if they go to war with China.

It would take a decade at most if you ask me. It's just an extrapolation of the past 3-4 decades.

3-4 decades decades ago US economy was still full of industries and the trade deficit was not a thing. Today US economy is debt based and all the industries are in China, as they say "American dream is made in China".
3-4 decades decades ago when any country thought about dumping dollar they would have been bombed out of existence, today US watches impotently while country after country dump the dollar.
3-4 decades decades ago when US navy decided to head towards a country the regime in that country changed automatically. Today US navy has to land all its aircraft, shut down all systems and ask permission when it wants to pass any strategic strait on earth.
3-4 decades decades ago US air-force was advanced and it was feared. Today US aircraft that gets closer to a border is shut down and they read the report impotently from Washington.
3-4 decades decades ago nobody dared look at US funny let alone get close to its borders. Today US airspace is being invaded regularly by flying objects they can not even identify!
3-4 decades decades ago nobody dared have any kind of military or military exercise or military presence or military cooperation with any country that was close to US (remember Cuban missile crisis). Today that is a joke, South America is no longer US backyard.
....

The most possible outcome in my opinion is that United States is going to cease to exist. In its place we are going to see dozens of countries (the previous states) that will be at each other's throats with lots of civil wars.
Of course this could be hastened if Trump or another idiot like him (Musk?) comes along again

It would take years maybe 500 years more. The British Empire still didn't evaporate to vanish forever instead created EU with Euro. I think USA will still be around as long as they won't nuke each other to ashes. And so will the dollar as well.

But base on history every empire decline, there will always be a war to expect. China and Russia has same capabilities that US have today, they can monitor each other through space.  What is certain is that all of them has nukes.

It's going to take decades before the US becomes history. Even as it remains one of the leading superpowers of the world, countries are starting to step away from it by switching to alternative currencies (de-dollarization). American decline is inevitable to say the least.

Once the US is no longer a "force to reckon with", China and Russia would have no limitations in their ambitions to conquer the world. It's likely world democracy will fail once this happens. We're talking about a distant future that we might never experience during our lifetime. The world is full of uncertainty right now, so expect the unexpected. Who knows what would be of Taiwan in the long run? Just my thoughts

So far, there is no reason to think that the US will lose its superpower status in the near future....

The United States is not directly involved in the Russian-Ukrainian war.  European countries suffer certain economic losses in the form of an increase in the cost of European products (most of the cost of production is the cost of acquiring hydrocarbons). 

However, the United States bears no such economic cost.  Many talented European scientists, engineers, programmers in such a situation emigrate to the United States. 

This will only strengthen this country economically.

The only way China would be able to freely invade Taiwan is if the US is no longer a superpower. Weakening American influence should make both China and Russia stronger than ever. I think China will carefully plan its moves before "reunifying" itself with Taiwan. The outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war will greatly determine China's ability to proceed as planned. It's predicted the current conflict will end this year, with Ukraine having victory over Russia. If that happens, China will forget about invading Taiwan for a while.

The world is a dangerous place, especially when there are a lot of countries with nuclear weapons in their arsenal. It would be of utmost importance for the US to avoid WW3, by contributing to world peace. Otherwise, it will be the end of humanity for good. Who knows what surprises we'll find in the future? Just my opinion

The Chinese leadership is now very closely watching the course of hostilities in Ukraine and the assistance provided to Ukraine by the international community. I think that what they see, namely the cohesion of other states to provide all kinds of assistance to Ukraine, greatly weakens the military fervor of China to attack Taiwan. In addition, China is very dependent on technology and trade with the US and European countries. And they perfectly understand what serious sanctions will follow if they decide to attack Taiwan. All this is now being tested in Russia and in the future it may well be applicable to China in the event of such aggression.

Therefore, China is now very cautious in its statements and actions. The intrigue remains over the emergence of information that China may provide military assistance to Russia with drones and artillery shells. If this happens, it will become obvious that China is preparing to attack Taiwan. Most likely, this is a stuffing of the necessary information, and China wants to use it in its multi-way combinations to obtain certain benefits, and not to help Russia in this losing war.

Short answer no. They will do what they did to Ukraine (stay far and send weapons only).

Things would depend on the exact situation though. For example whether we are talking about a single conflict between North and South Korea or are we talking about a much bigger conflict among many countries including North and South Korean.
History suggests that US is not willing to directly participate in any "real" war with a "real" military. Last time they did that was Vietnam and that has left US regime with bad memories which they don't want repeated.
This is why proxy wars has been US foreign policy for many years.
The only time US gets involved in any direct conflict is if they either have no choice and enter the war as late as possible (eg. WWII) or if they have basically disarmed and destroyed the country they are about to invade (eg. Iraq, Syria, Libya, ...) and they do it with a coalition (not even alone!).

Another thing to consider is that wars these days with any of the countries US has not yet invaded is going to be very different because these countries (eg. North Korea) are capable of hitting US mainland so if US starts a war with any of these countries, it will not be fought in those countries' soil, it will also be fought inside US soil.

Another thing to consider is US economy. It is already too fragile and dependent on other countries like China (East Asia) or on energy prices (West Asia). Any war started in any of these regions would put a lot more stress on US economy and Americans aren't really known for endurance, United states may no longer be United (...country of Texas for example ...).

Well, all these countries existed for centuries and some for thousands of years before US was "manufactured" and they had their own conflicts and they will exist and have conflicts long before US is "shattered" and disappeared.
Sides will change in major conflicts but it isn't really predictable. I don't see Japan changing sides any time soon though specially after Abe was assassinated, the independence dreams died with him (they'll remain a US playground).

That's certainly true, mate. A Taiwan invasion would certainly lead us towards higher prices for electronic devices (especially smartphones and computers). I can see how this would negatively affect Bitcoin in the short term. If you thought the Russo-Ukraine war was coming to an end, then you haven't seen the worst of it yet. There will be more pain ahead for all of us if China decides to invade Taiwan.

I really hope we can get back to some sort of peace treaty between world countries, so everything could go back to normal. It's been a disaster after another disaster ever since the COVID-19 pandemic took the world by storm. The US certainly doesn't want inflation to rise, so a direct conflict with China would be zero to none. We can't predict the future, anyways. Who knows what will happen in just 2 years from now? Just my opinion

The main problem of the Russian military-industrial complex is lies and corruption.
Lodges - about the "second army of the world", about "weapons that have no analogues, about the" backwardness of Western weapons.
And corruption. This is probably a separate chapter in the history of Russia. For you to understand - from the beginning of mobilization, the first 300,000 were barely able to dress, put on shoes, and provide weapons. If you look for photos from the training camps mobilized in Russia, you will be shocked - what they are wearing and what they are armed with! But what to tell if the ensign tells the new arrivals to ask their relatives to buy them .. Now attention: women's pads and tampons - to stop the blood and block wounds! As well as socks and other primitive elements of clothing, because the Russian military-industrial complex cannot produce in the right quantity, with the right quality, the usual form and related elements!
Have you seen their bulletproof vests and helmets? No ? I tell you - helmets are more for paintball than for use in combat conditions. Bulletproof vests - the same level

And medical support is generally a "fairy tale"! I personally saw a medical personal package - it is at the level of the USSR army, about the 70s of the last century! Primitive bandages, cracked tourniquets to stop the blood, the absence of normal painkillers and hemostatic drugs ....

The US of course always wants something bigger in return. But do you really think the US won't defend South Korea from a possible North Korean attack or a Chinese attack on Japan? Japan is even more important to the US than Taiwan. Or do you really imagine South Korea and Japan switching sides toward China? Or who will stop North Korea from attacking South Korea or China from attacking Japan if the US is already shattered and broken?

Maybe India can benefit from a war between the US and China but in the case that the US is slightly losing, I believe it is more beneficial for India, in the long run, to fight a weakened China while the US is still able rather than letting China recover and reign as the world's new leader. Unless India won't risk a winnable war and ask China to cede those contested territories for it to stay neutral. 

Perhaps, in some cases, arms manufacturers are making some effort to ignite the flames of some next conflict and thus increase the demand for their military products.
  Now the biggest war is unleashed by Russia in Ukraine. But the Russian military-industrial complex can hardly be suspected of this. Although, who knows. In any case, even for Putin's closest circle, his decision to attack Ukraine with all his might was a big surprise. And Russia itself, as it turned out, was not prepared for a serious and protracted war. Under the sanctions, Russia's military industry cannot actually work normally. But for the military-industrial complex of the United States and other NATO countries, the war in Ukraine really sharply increased orders for their military products. So, if before this war the United States produced about 20,000 artillery shells per month, then by 2025 they plan to increase their production to 90,000 pieces. This also applies to the military equipment of the NATO countries, which have shown high efficiency in this war. Against the background of the fact that the demand for bad Russian equipment in the world will fall, the military factories of NATO countries are already loaded with applications for many years to come.

This is a country with a deep history, amazing culture, world-class philosophy, and its own mentality. Yes, on the one hand, the Chinese are very purposeful. Bruce Lee, a follower of Chinese philosophy and martial arts, very well said, "I am not afraid of the one who learns 10,000 different blows. I am afraid of the one who learns one blow 10,000 times." This is the essence of the Chinese mentality - they can hone the skill of one solution a huge number of times. Then it turns out perfect ... but then, although it looks crooked and we understand how much effort it cost. The West is more pragmatic - here and now, what is needed, what money is paid for. China tried to copy and through many years of trial and error, they began to produce quite high-quality goods. True .. not with the help of their equipment and technologies, they borrowed all this from the West, and "borrow for free" did not work, the Western world is pragmatic. And they failed to nurture their specialists. And it seems that now China is the leader in the production (quantitative) of mobile phones, computers, laptops, switching equipment and much more ... but .. they are dependent on the high technologies of the West. That is why China is now trying to extremally protect itself from the beginning of the movement of the United States and other countries in relation to China. A movement to deprive China of advanced Western technology. Production is already migrating to neighboring India, the US is making plans to resume its full-fledged production. The countries of Latin America are waiting with open arms for investors and high-tech companies from the USA and other Western countries.
I think that in the next 2-5 years we will observe very interesting processes in the world

US is not protecting anyone now either, they are only being used by US for resources and an inflation export destination. Besides it is impossible for India to get into such a conflict, they've already proven that they prefer to sit on the side watching others fight each other while India expands its strength. As for the rest, it is not possible to say for sure which side they will play for in an actual war, there will be lots of side switches.

What are the chances of this conflict happening?
1. China will not attack Taiwan unless it declares its own independence.
2. Taiwan will not declare its independence.
The only time China will dare to attack Taiwan is if the US military and economy drop big compared. More than 2 decades ago, analysts predicted China to surpass the US economy by the 2020-2030 range. And they seem right. It was also stated that China will surpass the US military by 2050. So unless Taiwan declares independence, China won't attack until 2050 onwards. The US knew its situation and if it cannot win the economic and diplomatic games, it might be the one to trigger a war before the Chinese military is at par or more powerful than the US.

If war broke out. It will become a world war. South Korea, Japan, Australia, and probably India too knew that if the US lost the war, there won't be any buffers or protection for them against China. So this is highly to become a world war and the world economy will be in the worst scenario, especially for countries that are located near and in between these countries. And most likely that a losing side might resort to using nukes to change the tempo of the war.   

Your point is absolutely right, and that is what is happening in Russia and Ukraine. Many old weapons from the Soviet era were used in the early stages of the war and then in a show of power of a series of new generation weapons. The Ukrainian battlefield is no different from a place to use old weapons and test new types of combat weapons. I remember when the war started, American military contractors received dozens of contracts to buy weapons from allied countries, and brought them billions of dollars in profits.

Taiwan is a major microchip manufacturer. The global microchip shortage will increase, due to such war. I guess that the global electronics industry will suffer losses, but I'm sure that the global economy can adapt and solve this issue. Perhaps the USA and China might be facing some economic difficulties and this might help for boosting the European economy, reducing the Chinese import to Europe and increasing the European export to both USA and China. Nobody knows what will happen.
The strategists at Washington and Beijing must be calculating the potential costs and benefits of such conflict, and they probably know whether or not it's worth it for the USA and China to engage in such war.

Intelligence personnel always have to plan out every worst case scenario so I am not surprised to hear these kind of predictions. That's why they are called "worst case scenarios" in the first place.


Engineering talent is hard to come by in China for some reason. Particularly the kind of physics knowledge which is required to work with lithography and microchips in the first place.

A four-star general predicted that a war between the US and China over Taiwan will take place by 2025. You can read all about it here: https://time.com/6251419/us-china-general-war-2025/

Predictions are predictions, so either the aforementioned war will happen or everything will remain as is. I seriously don't think this will ever materialize, as that would cause a huge blow to the world's leading economies. It would be much worse than the current Russo-Ukraine crisis.

This could only be a drama show by the Chinese government in order to try to spread fear among people living in Taiwan. The likely outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war would be a full-blown victory for Ukraine, so China will think twice before deciding to proceed with its invasion of Taiwan in the future. Let's hope the current crisis will be all over before 2024 gets here. Just my thoughts