Topic: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict - page 2. (Read 651 times)

Yes, China does not have its own lithographic equipment for the production of microcircuits. 

In my opinion, the main problem of the Chinese is the lack of people with creative thinking.  The Chinese are traditionalists and collectivists. 

In China, there are numerous Buddhist monasteries in which amazed tourists are shown the footprints of wushu (kung fu) fighters carved into stone tiles.  This is a consequence of thousands of years of practicing the same sports exercises. 

But in order to become an excellent engineer, there is little self-discipline and perseverance. 

Very great creative abilities are needed, which do not develop in a society based on the ideals of traditionalism and collectivism.

I'm sorry, but here you are mistaken, now I will explain.

I'll start with the simplest - reverse engineering I used to live in the USSR. And the USSR, being not the most technologically backward country, for some reason did not know how to make their own microcircuits. No, the production of microcircuits itself was, and even had "its own" equipment for this. But it was not possible to develop schematics and logic. Well, or it didn’t work out very well. And the USSR, until the 90s of the last century, actually copied Western chips through reverse engineering. Moreover, do not believe it, but in a purely mechanical way Layer-by-layer disassembly of the chip, using mechanical means for "grinding layers". So, it was this reverse engineering technology that prevented the USSR from continuing to steal Western technologies after the 90s - the manufacturing process became so "thinner" that "grinding with a grinding wheel" was no longer possible This is about reverse engineering, how difficult it can be.

Now back to China. See what's the problem with China. Yes, they make a lot of electronics, they produce a huge number of chips, but !!!
BUT. For the production of precisely high-quality, high-performance chips, several components are needed:
1. Specialists and laboratories for the development of circuitry, layout and logic of the chip itself. China has them, but they are not of a high enough level. At the level of microcontrollers for household appliances - yes they can. At the processor level, for example, Intel 8th generation is no longer there. There is no education, no teachers, only basic theoretical, incomplete knowledge.
2. The production of chips for processors is a separate, huge industry. This is not just filled with sand in a bucket, melted, poured, applied a UV mask and you're done! No, this is a high-tech production, with very complex technologies from the preparation of raw materials to the very process of growing a crystal suitable for the production of chips with a high element density.
3. Lithographic equipment for the final stage of chip manufacturing. This equipment is generally produced by one company in the world. And she, too, joins the sanctions against China. And the equipment in the event of a "capture" will simply be turned off or errors will be introduced into the technical process.

Of all 3 points, China does not have its own. And it won't, because the United States and its partners will not give it. And the release of simple chips - yes, this is not uncommon, many companies produce, but there is no uniqueness in them either.

By the way, one more example. For example, Iran or Russia, for the production of the same drones, to carry out terrorist attacks, do not need the most complex chips. These are not microprocessors, these are controllers, etc. , much technologically simpler products .. But - they cannot produce them! Even simple chips for example for GPS navigation! They buy them on Aliexpress, or smuggled in other countries. I know that some of them have control controllers made from ... washing machines, which in Russia also do not produce their own, but only make SKD assembly of well-known brands.

I'm not sure if it is a typo or there is a mistake here. When majority of countries are setting negative economy growth and are battling inflation and recession, China is experiencing economic growth!
For example US expects at best case scenario a 0.3% GDP growth, Germany and UK had -0.6%, etc. while China is already having 5%+. It is not just GDP, the export amounts are enormous and all their destinations (like US) are having increasing amount of trade deficit each year.
If anything the only economy in the whole world that is not-sinking is China's!

The world is moving in a direction that being neutral costs more than choosing a side which is why sooner or later all countries will have to choose one of the handful of big players or superpowers to play by their side. I dare say US and China are both evil with different approaches though.

Yes, but I can only speak from here, I mean the last government play it's cards very well. The Duterte administration, was somewhat in the middle as far as it's policy on US and China is. But as we have a new government lead by the former dictator son's, and his name namesake, Ferdinand Marcos Jr, it's was a total shift in the policy against the Chinese.


True, but probably with the situation right now? government around neighboring South East Asia might have to choose between the lesser of two evil and  that could mean they are in the side of United States.

By who, if you don't mind sharing?

Hopefully it's a credible source and not the usual peanut gallery of "doomsayers" whose predictions are almost always wrong.  


That only applies when the aggressor's military is not full of corruption.

Ukraine is handing Russia's ass to them right now not because of NATO supplies (the first of which came many, many days after when everyone expected Russia to be finished defeating Ukraine) but because Russia's army is rotten and nobody does what they're supposed to do.

So they lose a lot of equipment, men, etc.

Almost every other military in the world (including China) has a much better disciplined army than Russia's.


It's always been like that with arms races, otherwise one of the countries will get cocky and invade other countries on the basis on having more advanced weapons.


They have machines to make 00's era chips, but everything after that is mostly prototypes not being produced commercially.

The microchip industry is heavily interconnected across different countries (and this is only the chips themselves - consumer electronics manufacturing is not counted here), and there are companies in Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, US, as well as Taiwan making parts of the equipment necessary to mass-produce chips. It's a huge effort to clone all of that so I am not surprised to hear that China is having difficulties making modern chip-producing machines (without considering the effects of the export bans by the West).

There's so much money being wasted on military equipment, when it could've been distributed to other areas of domestic need. I guess countries became so worried about their border security after what happened between Russia and Ukraine. I'm not saying it's bad to expand military equipment and personnel. What I'm saying is that putting all of the governments' funds solely for military use is a bad idea.

China is going to need help from other countries, especially now when its economy is sinking. It wouldn't want to invade Taiwan when Russia was severely sanctioned from major countries worldwide. Russia was essentially cut off from the global economic system, so it should feel more pain further down the road. I don't think China will want this, as it will be the end of it as we know it. This could all be a rumor that will never become a reality. I'd expect economic ties between the US and China to strengthen after the global crisis caused by Russia is over. No one wants a full-scale nuclear war, as that would mark the end of humanity for good. China knows it, the US knows it, as well as other nuclear superpowers like Russia and North Korea. With peace around the world, humanity can prosper once more. Just my thoughts

Russia's war against Ukraine should generally end this year with a victory for Ukraine. This will indeed serve as a powerful deterrent for China, because they saw that the world does not tolerate aggression and that less militarily strong states are capable of defeating the aggressor if the world unites and provides all possible assistance to the victim of aggression. Of course, the Chinese government would like Russia to take over Ukraine. Then against this background, China would have had a free hand with respect to Taiwan. But this will not happen thanks to the resilience of the Ukrainian people and their Armed Forces.

Agree. China, being a superpower on the one hand, has a real problem - its huge (the second economy in the world) is built mostly on the export of "consumer goods", and all competitive, high-tech products of China are 100% dependent on Western technologies, and in first of all from the USA. Those. The Chinese economy is a symbiotic of the US and the Western world. The Chinese economy can, of course, produce a huge amount of goods, but they will be such goods as Chinese goods were in the 70s and 90s of the last century. Simple, cheap and not very high quality. It doesn't seem to be bad either. BUT. They will not be able to sell such goods to the West, but only to third world countries or economically backward countries, where purchasing power is low. This means that they will not receive the CURRENCY for which they can purchase technologies. And this means the position of an appendage of the world. And there will be no bipolar world with the US and China. That is why China does not take idiotic, abrupt steps, such as Russia. I hope that the example of the defeat of Russia and the collapse of Russia into several states will greatly cool the ardor of the "hot guys in Beijing."
At the same time, I will add - I understand that China, for some reason, considers Taiwan "historically its territory" (although the issue is really debatable). And he wants to show everyone his ambitions and positions in the region. But the military option for China will also be extremely bad. I believe that an acceptable option for resolving the conflict is an agreement (provided that it will Satisfy Taiwan) on the nominal accession of Taiwan, but in the status of an autonomous republic, with its own parliament, government, army and financial system.
There is a great example - Ukraine and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea in its composition, which is now temporarily annexed by an old terrorist. Until 2014, the Autonomous Republic of Crimea had its own parliament, its own government, had mutually beneficial relations with all regions of Ukraine, and Ukraine represented its interests in the world. with the direct participation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. There were no problems and conflicts, and everyone remained in their own interests.

There are far too many gun and weapons manufacturers around and most countries, in the bid to “protect” themselves from external aggression come up with new creative innovations that would produce deadly and destructive weaponry.
I’ve come to the conclusion that there would always be conflict in this world. And gun and weapons manufacturers would continue to sell their wares.
There are a lot of conflicts presently going on. Some, not worth the media attention. And I’m willing to bet weapon manufacturers are indirectly stoking the flames of conflicts and violence.

These are all very good and comprehensible points and the contradiction of China's behavior remains when they are threatening with war against Taiwan as I explained here. The speed at which they are buying up and building new infrastructure al around the world is astonishing, but a clear indicator that it is indeed aiming at increasing their soft power around the globe. This is why an attack at this point in time would make no sense. However, if they have increased their soft power due to a dominant control of global economic infrastructure, they are also more immune against sanctions.

I don't know what Xi Jinpings plans are and whether he thinks he is going to live and reign for another 30 years, but I do believe that guys like him do not only want to go down into the books of history as someone who build his country into an economic superpower. All this military spending is a sign to me that he is dreaming of pulling the trigger one day against Taiwan.

I am wondering about something else when we talk about the dominant role of Taiwan in the microchip market. I know that it is the case now, but doesn't China basically have the resources to build a competitive microchip industry? They have been reverse engineering for decades now. Why wouldn't they be able to copy large scale microchip manufacturers? I haven't been digging into this yet in detail, but as far as I know China owns the base resources for that technology or am I wrong here?

If I understand this article correctly, the US and its allies can only slow down China in the competition for the best and fastest semiconductor manufacturers (and China is way behind), but it is a question of time until China can catch up. The base resources they need are also available in Russia. There we are again that China perhaps want to import rare earth metals and Russia in exchange secures contracts for long-term deliveries of semi-conductor technology.

Damn, the world is complex... but discussions like these help understanding it a little better step by step.

In fact, there are many opportunities for development in the modern world, there are many scenarios for avoiding confrontation with other countries.  

China, for example, is very aggressively developing Africa.  However, he is not fighting in Africa.  China uses the policy of "soft power".  Chinese companies lend to local companies at high interest rates.  For non-payment of debts, the Chinese take shares of key African companies.

In today's world, war is a very bad way to solve economic problems.  

I love watching the Chinese feature film "Battle of the Red Rock" very much.  The Chinese in the army, in addition to military leaders, had the position of Strategist.  

The Chinese Strategist was engaged in the development of various military techniques that helped to achieve victory over the enemy.  

Since ancient times, the Chinese have been accustomed to achieve success with cunning, not just brute force.

Just two simple questions, clarifications
1. Comparing territorial integrity is correct. And within the framework of this concept, the fact that for some short time Ukraine and Taiwan were part of other entities does not give any right to these entities to consider these territories as their own. Therefore, China is trying to be "good" on both sides, but on the other hand, it is promoting the narrative "Taiwan is the territory of the PRC", which is not true. And I will repeat again. For China, Taiwan is an opportunity to "kill two birds with one stone." Show your "greatness" and get something without which the Chinese economy will slide back 40 years, and turn into a manufacturer of cheap, low-quality consumer goods. These are technologies. The US is now withdrawing technology from China, and is limiting the ability to teach modern technology in the future. And Taiwan is the world leader in the production of microchips. The microprocessor market itself is actually in the hands of Taiwan. Do you think China will recognize the sovereignty and independence of Taiwan?

2. China's plan, very "thin". It must be understood that the loss of Russia, for China, is a very bad "bell", and now the situation is heading towards this. That is why China will try to "stop the war" by saving Russia, saving it from losing and collapsing, as was the case with the USSR. But the world is well aware that the war against terrorists cannot be stopped, it can either be won or lost. Therefore, the Chinese proposal will certainly be listened to, but there will be no result. Although Russia will hysteria and demand a "decision from China", and will even promise to fulfill it. But the whole world already knows - a word or a promise from Russia is worth nothing, it's an empty phrase ....

That's a really strange situation not just with Philippines but with multiple Chinese neighbors specially when you look at the world map and see that all the neighbors have been slowly choosing a pro-US policy. Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea are the main ones that are challenging China in East and South China sea for US!

I could understand competition with China and resistance against Chinese influence and growth but to go full anti-China and becoming friendly with US that we all know will abuse all these countries for their own benefit and at their cost makes no sense.

The question is whether the big problem for China is internal tension or simply the ambitions of a regional leader and the second pole of the new world. If about the bipolar world, where these poles are the USA and China, then China has already openly declared, deleting Russia from the world map of leaders.
But China has internal tensions, this is precisely the problem that can only be solved through a "small victorious war." At the same time, it is possible that it will go into the format “we are at war with the whole world, we need to unite, whoever is against the existing government is a traitor to China!”, as Russia is now trying to “slip” this narrative on its biomass, losing to Ukraine on the fronts.
And in this vein, China needs, if not a victory, then not a loss for Russia, and a weakening of international pressure on the aggressor. Otherwise, China will also become a pariah country, buried under international sanctions. if the EU economy was really dependent on Russian energy resources, then there is no such dependence on the Chinese market. Other countries can also produce mass goods of acceptable quality, but China does not produce critical goods, for example for the EU.
There is information that China did begin to provide some military assistance to Russia. Whether this is true or not, we will find out soon enough. I still hope that China does not want to soil itself in the crimes committed by Russia ...

They have been in trade wars for years now and obviously, it has an effect on both countries. But if they started a full scale war then everyone will be affected, specially countries in the South East Asia (specially I live in Philippines wherein our government are still undecided, but it looks like the newly government will be in the US side), they will be torn apart.

For the global economy, it might hit harder as well, it will disrupt the world economy and it's hard to recovery if the war lasted for years.

but we will all know which sides are countries are going to take here.

I can only agree with what you have said but you could say the very same thing about Russia as well. They could have instead used their vast amounts of resources and expanded their economy and create wealth and live in prosperity. But now they don't because there is a one-man-show going on that makes no sense for anyone who is thinking rationally.

Xi Jinping is the same kind of guy. From an economic point of view an invasion of Taiwan would make no sense, but does that mean they won't invade Taiwan? If Xi Jinping gives the go, it is going to happen.

One major issue I have with all of this is that we as a global society already forego potential wealth by just pumping excessive amounts of money into military. Usually nobody really noticed it in their everyday lives, but this is going to change tremendously when the whole world starts to take away significant amounts of money from other causes and instead wastes it on military equipment. I just don't see how we can put the arms race to an end anytime soon. Even if Russia stops its aggression tomorrow, every country in Europe will still increase their military spendings by a lot. Finland is now building some sort of defend walls and I am sad to say that it makes sense to me. Nobody is interested getting hit by a surprise attack. 

It is clear that such a conflict would have significant and far-reaching consequences, and efforts should be made to prevent such a scenario from occurring.
In terms of the long-term impact on the US, a conflict with China could weaken the US economically, particularly if it results in significant damage to US infrastructure, property, and businesses. However, it could also strengthen the US politically, as a successful defense of Taiwan could enhance the US's standing as a global superpower and reaffirm its commitment to its allies and democratic values.

In my opinion, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely. 

China is known for its prudent and pragmatic foreign policy.  At the same time, it must be recognized that China's desire to annex Taiwan is very strong.... 

Taiwan has made great strides in the field of microelectronics.  In fact, it is a recognized leader in the production of the most innovative microcircuits.  At the same time, in the context of the end of world globalization, Chinese companies (for example, Huawei) were cut off from the supply of these products they need. 

The complexity of the situation lies in the fact that microcircuits are essentially dual-use products - they are used both in the military and in the civilian industry. 

At the same time, China is closely following the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. 

The current situation on the military scene further urges him to be careful and avoid political adventures involving the invasion of Taiwan and a direct clash with US military power.

I'm not praying for a war to escalate between the US and China and Taiwan respectively, but should such happen, I think the US would be bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to ensure they protect the taiwanese from a possible invasion by the Chinese.
 China and the US have been long standing economic trade partners but in the year 2020, they (China) reneged on that treaty and the deal has gone south, I strongly believe the US govt would stand by Taiwan should hell break loose.

I understand you You so want to remove the status of a rogue country, a terrorist country and a sponsor of terrorism from Iran that you decided to attribute Iranian "merits" to the United States
No matter how pleasant it may be for you, but the countries of terrorists, among those listed by you, are not. But Iran, Russia, North Korea and similar international garbage - this is the basis of international terrorism. This has been proven by decades of global crimes committed by these criminal countries. And these are FACTS, unlike your fantasies. Stop lying and start changing the world from your country, or rather from your government, which dragged the once beautiful free country of Iran into the shackles of the Middle Ages, alienation from the world, obtaining the status of a rogue terrorist country. Believe me - by stopping the support of the bastard, anti-human regimes, and covering up their crimes, you will do better for yourself and your people. Now it is your people who are suffering because of the propagandists of terrorism masquerading as "the fight against US hegemony". And other nations that you kill almost directly - for example, supplying the Kremlin terrorists with weapons that they use against the civilian population of other countries.