Topic: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict - page 4. (Read 667 times)

I don't see it coming, not in 2025, not in the next decade or two. But the situation in Ukraine will probably give us an idea. If Ukraine succumbed to the Russian invasion, it will surely be a cue for China to invade Taiwan. If the US and Europe and their allies failed to stop Russia from annexing Ukraine, the more they can't stop a more powerful country from annexing a tiny island nation.

So, in a way, the fate of US-China-Taiwan conflict will be determined by the fate of Ukraine's battle for survival against a weaker bully. China, the stronger bully, is just observing. The US, which is now facing financial troubles within, and its allies will have to give as much as possible for Ukraine to come out victorious. Otherwise, another bully will be joining in causing much bigger problems.

Of course we hope that the conflict between China and Taiwan will not happen again, China has great economic power for the world, and Taiwan certainly has US and European allies so that if there is a conflict it will have a big impact on the world economy, but I'm sure the conflict will never be serious until war, and maybe just intimidation or war statements from China and Taiwan.

Nobody really knows how much Xi Jinping actually knew about Russia's plans to invade the Ukraine. Since Putin and Xi Jinping met or talked right before the invasion happened, it is likely that he knew about this plan or at least received some obvious hints from Putin. It makes a lot of sense that Xi Jinping was very interested in seeing how the Western world would react to the invasion.

It is good to see that the West now supports the Ukraine the way they support them, but who knows what would have happened if the West decided to not support the Ukraine. Do you think that could have been an additional incentive for Xi Jinping to take action against Taiwan as well? Now that the support for Ukraine is constantly growing stronger and we are probably even going to see fighting jets being delivered, Xi Jinping is probably going to at least think twice before he decides to invade Taiwan. I think there is no doubt now that the US is going to stick to their word and protect Taiwan as well.

I don't think it's in both the US and China's best interests to start a war. It would cause a major blow to the global economy. China's economy has been severely affected because of the pandemic and the Russo-Ukraine war, so I'd expect it to delay its plans to invade Taiwan by a few more years. But if it does happen by 2025 as predicted, then all hell will break loose. The Chinese spying satellite tells us China has ambitions to conquer the world. It is analyzing each country's weaknesses to make a move in the future. Maybe the "New World Order" is upon us (with China and Russia ruling the world)?

I've seen the global situation worsen ever since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020. One catastrophe after the other is happening before our every eyes. First it was COVID-19, then the Russo-Ukraine war, and now a possible conflict between the world's leading superpowers. I hope things go back to normal soon, but it seems we're heading into a new reality. I'd be surprised if the US no longer exists in the future due to the accelerating rate of American decline. Who knows what lies ahead for the rest of hunanity? Just my opinion

All wars generally weaken the economy depending on the severity, threat to national security or global stability, and the investment the U.S. makes on fighting the war monetary wise (of course lives are not expendable).

The issue that the U.S. has is they rely on Taiwanese chip production for many of their consumer electronics, and that fact makes Taiwan an attractive target for invasion. Should China gain control of these chips, they U.S. will be even more beholden to China than they already are. Also keep in mind many drugs are manufactured in China. Should a war breakout, who will be supplying the U.S. with pharmaceuticals?

A possible war between the US and China over Taiwan will not be this year. The decision on the war on the part of China will be made taking into account the consequences of the war between Russia and Ukraine. If Ukraine wins this war, as it is almost certain, then other potential aggressors, such as China, will have to reduce their military fervor.

  Now both the United States and China are studying the tactics and strategy of waging war between Ukraine and Russia, and especially the use by Ukraine of advanced, including NATO military technologies. If earlier China could count on a large number of its armed forces, then the current war in Ukraine has shown that this is not the most decisive factor, and China is now very dependent on the United States and Europe in matters of microcircuits and nanotechnologies. Experts predict that China will not be able to win the war with the United States.
As for the economic side of this possible war, the material damage will, of course, be colossal and will hit the economies of all countries of the world.

Gaming and GPUs do not matter much because it's the ARM microprocessors that are placed in phones and tablets where the real business comes from, because these always want to use the latest fabrications.

In this regard, TSMC is not the only such supplier, because there's also Intel and Samsung (though only Samsung really makes mobile chips).

I'd be more worried about the company that manufactures the machines that make the chips - ASML - a company heavily dependent on US parts but has a monopoly, causing all 3 chipmakers to be dependent on them.

it is possible and necessary to talk about such a conflict, since its probability is not zero.
To begin with, let's look at the reasons for the possible causes of this potential conflict?
If you dig history, then China's claims to "ownership" dissolve, because. if China takes the starting point when the PRC transferred the Republic of China (yes, that's what it is called, but the word China is not a synonym for the PRC) under external control (but was not included in the PRC), then the question arises - why consider this date as a starting point? In a word, delving into history is useless. But there is another side of the coin. These are China's problems. There are many of them - from an unstable economy, internal tensions, and potential degradation of the export-oriented, and technologically dependent on the West, economy. And to keep a semi-totalitarian state, you need to show a "beautiful picture." But it's difficult .. At least by the fact that after some "vybryki" China, the United States abruptly began to curtail projects where China is supplied with American high technology. Yes, it will look a little funny, but China without Western technology is again an agrarian China of the mid-20th century! Therefore, one of China's directions is to seize high technologies, and even more so in such a sector as microprocessor solutions. Well, in order to "kill two birds with one stone" - to show that Beijing is a powerful country, whose opinion and whose desires in the region are LAW. Taiwan fits this role PERFECTLY. But there are nuances
1. The people of Taiwan categorically do not want to become a province of China and bring them an invaluable gift in the form of their microprocessor segment.
2. The independence of Taiwan is supported by the United States and many other strong Western countries.
3. So-called. Russia's "special operation" to seize Ukraine "by right of the strong" failed, and China saw that the world "thanks" to Russia united against such threats. China did not just choose a passive role in today's terrorist war of Russia against Ukraine - for it, the victory of Russia would become a PRECEDENT, and the whole world would swallow the fact that this can be done. But it didn't work out. The world has shown that such terrorist attacks will be stopped.
4. China understands that in case of aggression against Taiwan, sanctions similar to those against Russia will be applied to it.
5. But the Chinese government has almost no alternative to divert the attention of more than 1 billion Chinese from pressing issues, except for a military conflict with Taiwan, which will clearly escalate into a larger one.

In any case, even if China succeeds, China will not get what it wants. He will definitely not receive technology (during the hostilities, this will all be destroyed). China will probably get islands with completely destroyed infrastructure, without a population (I'm sure most of the productive population will leave for the nearest countries / USA). China will receive sanctions and the label of a pariah, along with Russia, North Korea, Iran and a couple of other inadequate countries.
Victory ? Unless it's a Pyrrhic victory...

An alternative option is an agreement on the entry of Taiwan, as an Autonomous Republic, into the PRC, with broad autonomy and guaranteed security, with external control over the implementation of the agreements. To me, this is the most logical way.

It all really depends on which path China chooses...

I don't think that any large scale conflict like a China-US war over Taiwan is going to have any positive economic impacts. The world economy is in a fragile state after the covid lockdowns and the sanctions on Russia of the Ukraine war. In my opinion, any additional negative shocks is going to send us into recession. But even the worst economic crisis is not going to be the end of the world. What we have learned from all the major economic crisis in the past there will come a recovery, the economy moves in cycles and will rebound eventually. Which doesn't mean that it's going to painful and a lot of hardship. I think that all the other big countries will be heavily affected by the China-US war and also suffering. The effects in the long run could be positive for the US if they make the right decisions. Bring back home more production facilities could be one way to be less dependent on China in the future. 

If seen yes, this conflict will have a significant impact on the economy and financial system of each country involved. But are these three countries willing to risk their economies just for the sake of power? That doesn't make much sense in my opinion, It might be more precise that these types of events are more likely to happen in places like Ukraine where military power is more concentrated and perhaps the worst case scenario, is a war involving all of Europe. But in general, we don't need to worry too much about the global economic crisis due to conflicts between China, Taiwan and the US.

I don't think there will ever be any direct armed conflict between US and any of the existing super powers because this is no longer World War 2 and similar wars where US mainland is not reachable. Any war that US starts won't be thousands of kilometers away, but it will be fought inside US soil too.

If you look at all these years US is at war with the rest of the world but through proxies. The Chinese war will also be yet another proxy war like the war with Russian. In other words Taiwan is China's Ukraine. I believe Chinese authorities know this very well which is why they haven't invaded Taiwan to this day despite most of us thinking they would and despite all the tensions US tried to increase like sending 80-year old Pelosi to Taiwan trying to make her cannon fodder.

I posted some thoughts on this conflict last year. I still think that conflict would bring energy price down since it would put one of the biggest consumers out of the market (decreased demand) but we have to consider that US economy depends on Chinese economy more than Chinese economy depends on US economy! Look at the huge US trade deficit that is increasing year by year. In other words it would terribly ruin US economy.

On top of that, everything specially military equipment is ridiculously expensive in US. If they start a war where their economy is already in ruins, they will not be able to keep it up financially speaking whereas it is not nearly as expensive for China to keep fighting.
The US military think tanks are already talking about the fact that US has already run out of a lot of strategic weapons trying to fight the proxy war with Russia and they won't even be able to refill their weapons cash for years specially with the way inflation and recession is hitting US.

From a military standpoint US is too weak and behind in the technology to fight other actual militaries. Check the US airspace in the past decade. It is regularly being invaded and they can't even detect majority of them and the handful they see they can't detect (UFO) and they struggle to bring down. In short US air defense is a joke.
Compare that with what other super powers can and have done. My current avatar is actually a jab at that

This is what scares me the most because we live in the most strategic country in the world, and we will almost certainly be at war with them, even if they are only at war because we are part of the US alliance. If this happens, then we can't really feel the economic impact as we are in the middle of the war unless we flee to another country. For sure, prices will be more than doubled, and people who are in third-world countries will have more difficulty buying their basic necessities. I am hoping that this is just speculation and far from the truth.

That is what I think as well. Somehow these totalitarian regimes think that war propaganda is an essential element for their governments to stay in power. Hence, China is nonstop talking about how they are getting pulled into a war that they don't actually want, which is of course ridiculous.

But at the same time China isn't interested in a global war. They have been acquiring critical infrastructure all around the globe.



They have been pushing their Belt and Road Initiative (New Silk Road) aggressively for many years now.



I think they would do this only when plan on fighting a war with sanctions rather than with real weapons or even nuclear weapons. As The Sceptical Chymist said, sanctions are the likely scenario at least in the beginning. Nobody would build such an economic network if the plan is to nuke planet Earth anyway.

China does know that fighting a military war would put all of their decades long efforts to an end. There are also the major non-Nato allies like South-Korea and Japan surrounding them and those can't be underestimated either from a strategic point of view. I also doubt that India would ever join forces with China and Russia. I don't know how reliable the Global Firepower Index is, but I would still say that even a coalition between Russia and China would run into dramatic deadlocks unless they are willing to extinguish planet Earth from the universe.

The speed at which China builds its global economic network is concerning as that might be an indicator of China preparing for some form of confrontation, but I doubt it will risk a military confrontation anytime soon due to an attack against Taiwan. Hopefully I am not wrong.

The US is involved in military drills and missions worldwide. I won’t exactly say they’re sponsoring these drills and missions worldwide. And if it’s the Russia Ukraine war that you’re talking about, it’s no new news that the United States is actively sending aid in the form of weapons and equipments. You should know those equipments and weapons are in reserve and could be gifted to other nations. It won’t affect their military operations and capabilities in any way.

The US is not already weakening like you purported, I wouldn’t want to be alive in a world where the two largest economies and military might go into a war to fight themselves. I’d like to think that the US has more allies than China has and in the event of a war, those allies won’t sit on the sidelines for long.

This will have greater effect on the Americans that had been backing the country. It will already affect china because the NATO may declear war against china which is going to be very hard for chip producing countries to be able to meet up with standard. China is going to have a taste of there cake just like we are seeing im Russia Ukraine war.

Just a little correction, Taiwan doesn't have an economic power that is as influential as China's but what it lacks in economic ppwer, it makes up with creating allies within its borders, and the west. Taiwan, has gained the favor of USA and thus will loop them in, along with suballies of the dtate possibly, should a full-scale war against China commence. If a war were to happen between these three nation-states it will not be like the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, it will be of a larger scale considering the firepower each of these countries could put out. Ultimately, I do hope that China lets go of their chokehold on Taiwan and have things end in a diplomatic manner.

Economic implications?  If any of the big world powers end up in a war, economics might come down to how many cockroaches you can scrounge up to feed whatever is left of your family, assuming any of us are alive at the end of said war.

But before the nukes start flying, I'd expect severe sanctions to be imposed on all sides, just like with Russia.  As far as the US is concerned, if China were to impose sanctions like that, it'd cripple our economy (or at least put a big ding in it).  I'm hoping none of this happens--for the sake of generations to come, because a war between China and the US would probably wind up as a full-blown world war, and as you probably all are aware we've got much more powerful weapons now than during the last world war.

And yet we have all of these UFOs flying around....kinda makes you wonder if the rumors Abiky referenced are true.  I don't suspect they're from outer space; they're probably Chinese spy-things gathering intel.  Ugh.

China and the US at war is already a huge blow to the world, and to be honest it seems like they are already 'at it' but just not through violence but through economic sabotages and whatnot. Should these two giants go to war against each other, a lot of countries will be forced to join the war and it will literally be just bloodshed everywhere. I think both countries are using Taiwan as their fuse to have a reason to declare war against each other, and China knows that too that's why they're constantly trying to agitate Taiwan by sending in fighter jets to patrol around the region and cause a reaction from US or Taiwan.

No one wants this war to happen, but it seems that the top brass of both countries are itching to have it their way.

First, I have to say that I don't believe such a scenario is possible (disclaimer: I was sure Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine  ) but in a very unlikely event of a full-scale war between US and China, I guess we're all doomed. Both countries possess nuclear weapons and will probably try to nuke each other asap.

I also believe that Russo-Ukrainian war will end before 2025 (later this year or early 2024 is my prediction). 

Let's hope it doesn't come any time soon, especially while Russia is already at war with Ukraine, because all of the extra confusion could really send us spiraling into situations that were never expected. One war between two  fairly large countries is bad enough, but if it escalates then there could be all sorts of unintended spillovers and events may get far beyond the abilities of the politicians to control them - even if they do end up starting them. Not to mention it will likely cause a very severe shock to the world economy because so many microchips are created in Taiwan and you can say goodbye to the original supply chains coming out of China with all sorts of electronic goods. Russia's invasion of Ukraine would look tiny in comparison.