Topic: Economic implications of a US-China-Taiwan conflict - page 3. (Read 651 times)

China needs the world's support to help sustain its economy. Otherwise, it will be the end of its "empire" for good. For what I know, this could all be drama between the world's biggest superpowers (China and the US). It's not about words, but rather the actions they take in real life. And so far, there's no indication there will be a conflict between the two countries over Taiwan anytime soon.

Depending on how the Russo-Ukraine war ends, China will decide whenever to proceed with its ambitions of invading Taiwan or leave everything as is. For the sake of the entire planet, it's best for China to remain in peace with both Taiwan and the US. Otherwise, WW3 will go full speed ahead. No one can predict the future, so we can only hope for the best. Just my opinion

I find it hard to assess whether time is running in favor of China or not. In the end China is highly dependent on a well functioning global economy, but if every country is now investing heavily in military equipment and defense, there is less money to be spent on Chinese products as well.

Today at the security conference in Munich China emphasized that territorial integrity is to be respected by everyone in the world, but that was also implying that Taiwan actually is a part of China and they would only take back what belongs to them anyway. They will now also start a peace initiative regarding Russia and Ukraine, but they haven't really specified what that is going to look like. It didn't sound very convincing and the US made clear that they have their doubts. As far as I know it was quite a heated debate between Chinese representatives and US representatives.

There are big economic interests between the USA and China, so the prospects of a full blown war are very low. I think China will wait until the end Russo-Ukraine war, to make a move. If Ukraine wins, then China will think twice before deciding to invade Taiwan. But if Ukraine loses, then it's likely China will proceed as planned. It seems that Ukraine is winning, so don't count on the US entering a conflict with China over Taiwan anytime soon.

Let's hope things will settle down by 2024, so the world can get back to the way it was. Peace, prosperity, and health to all of humanity. Otherwise, it'll be the end for good. Who knows what the future holds for all of us? Just my thoughts

Indeed, China has its problems. But that's also true to the US and the rest of the world's most powerful countries. The difference with China, however, is that they have a more controlled politics and populace. Also, I don't see the Chinese people as truly free. Well, many of them now have the money, could travel the world, immerse in different cultures, and so on, but what I usually notice even among these sophisticated and cosmopolitan Chinese is that they're still robot-like. It seems they all have chips in their brain.

China is largely watching but they're also extending significant help to their guinea pig. They definitely want this guinea pig to be successful. But they probably didn't share its poor decision-making and strategies and rush approach. While they want it to be victorious, they're probably open for its failure as they recognize its recklessness.

What I agree with in the first place is that China is smart, and in a good way cunning. But China has its own problems that I wrote about. They are now - economic, and are ready to change into socio-economic ones in the future, with a massive increase in public discontent. But it must be taken into account that modern China is not the China of the middle of the 20th century, when the remnants of feudalism still remained in the mentality. now the Chinese people are more free, and they can start a real rebellion. And this is equal to the death of power. Well, plus a guaranteed deterioration in the economy due to cutting off Chinese industry from Western technologies. And this already removes China's existing advantages in the world market, where China supplies a huge amount of products with a low price and acceptable quality. After the departure of technology, the degradation of the economy will begin. Namely, Taiwan will allow to "solve" a lot of problems:
- possession of almost monopoly production of critical products in the world market
- problem solving with technology
- "a small victorious war against the imperialists" - will increase the rating of the CCP.
But China does not rush to thoughtlessly start a war, it has chosen "guinea pigs" in the form of Russia, and is watching ... I hope that even so the Chinese leadership will be wiser than Putin's sadistic fanatic. For China, the path of a peaceful alliance with Taiwan and mutually beneficial symbiosis with the West is the path to survival.

It is not all rumors though. It depends on how you define war/conflict. A direct armed conflict is highly unlikely but the "war" is already happening in the world, some even refer to it as world war 3.

On one side US is constantly arming terrorist groups in Asia in both West Asia and East Asia. They are also arming multiple small countries around China so that they can act as US proxy (including Taiwan, Philippines and Japan). They are constantly threatening security and trade routes to damage Chinese economy and exports. Specially if you look at the countries that are on route of the Chinese "Belt and Road Initiative" you see the chaos US has been causing there.

On the other side China is sanctioning United States like the recent sanctions on multiple US industries. They are waging their own Opium War by mass exporting fentanyl to US and US neighbors that are flooding US with highly addictive drugs. They regularly invade US airspace and gather massive amount of intelligence on highly classified facilities.

And a lot more.

I agree, although I don't think China needed to invent another way. China's approach has always been multi-pronged. While they are sending warships in contested territories, directly harrassing another country's navies, conducting war exercises near borders, and others, they also employ other strategies. They strongly support opposition parties. They offer abundant loans and grants and aids. They also have rich investors ready to pour billions in foreign ventures. They also reach out offering cooperation, shared explorations, and other partnership deals. This bully knows better; they know direct annexation through arms isn't the only way.

And why are you so sure about that?

Here on the forum, we have zillion threads about how profitable is to invest in crypto/gold/real estate/oil/etc... but I guess that nothing beats investing in weapons! But what level do you need to be for that?

My point is simple! Too many weapons around... and demand for new and better ones is constantly increasing! But the old must be spent somewhere, and the new must be shown how it works, it will get a better price if it's tested in a real battle! So it's not a question will it happen, it's a question of where will it happen and when! And how big it can be... do you even know how many active conflicts there are around the world?

We want peace, but (globally) we produce/sell/buy more weapons than ever before. It's a bit contradictory from my point of view.

No one want that to happen even the US would not want China to go for war with Taiwan. Taiwan is like a micro country to China since China had been claiming Taiwan to be part of the territory. This is going to be a big war especially for countries that has been depending on china for raw materials. The US will not be able to easily lay strict sanctions on China because US companies highly depend on China for raw materials and other things. If this war start mnay few years coming. The Americans soldiers may not be able to defeat china since it's like the China soldiers are developing crazy ammonition without the media knowing.

First, it is useful to point out that the hypothesis of a war between the United States and China is very weak. This will not happen, at least in the medium term.
Secondly, there is actually a war between the two countries and Taiwan is the land of that war. We must forget war in its traditional sense. And the war between China and America has dysfunctional aspects, a strategic and economic war.
Third, if a military confrontation takes place between them on the land of Taiwan, this will harm the global economy as a whole, but China will certainly be the first to be affected, and America may not be the last of course.

First of all I don't see such a thing happening anytime soon not in 2025 for sure. Also seen from US reaction in the Ukraine Invasion I am skeptical whether they will even go for a full fledged war in that scenario too. But let's say if it does happen obviously it will lead to a dark future. China has lot of trade routes to the rest of the world and delivers a lots of things in various countries. Such a war would mean great shortages of such things. But I am sure some other countries like India would benefit a lot from such a war as they can do what US did in world wars.

How to put this? May be the war rumors is actually a rumor to keep things tidy and neat for the years to come. Most of the USA's import is coming from China and most of the world's leading brands are relying on China for their virtually unlimited workforce. How cheap other countries can go when they have to finish the work? There are multi national companies which already have biggest conglomerates with the US base and China base together. They definitely have bigger commercial relationships rather than political one's. The war can broke out for any dumb reason and that's not the point here. But USA knows very well they have more than 50% reliance on the China's assets which includes raw materials as well.

I might be speaking in terms of commercial aspects here but let us not forget, world revolves around the money and money only trades when you have real stuff to sell.

Whenever brands like Tesla, Apple, Microsoft tried to move their giant manufacturing faculties elsewhere they were first slammed by various rules and regulations. However, china is country with only one goal and thats to produce and get those dollar funds in their treasury. The dominance is huge.

It's like both the ends are tieing the knot and no one wants to let go. War? Pretty sure its gonna take while.

Things are getting scary and out of hand in United States as it is. The most recent shitshow is in Ohio which is like one of those end of the world scenarios with the chemicals spreading slowly infecting and killing everyone on its path. Livestock and wildlife is already perishing and nobody is giving any answer to why the train crashed in first place! Or do anything about it...

I really hope my country will be done with Russia by that point, and if Russia loses against Ukraine, it can be a great deterrent for China because that can show that a smaller and objectively weaker country (in terms of initial personnel, forces, military rankings, economies) can defeat a bigger one, and that there are enough countries in the contemporary world that are strongly against military invasions and are willing to help the one defending oneself. China isn't stupid, and while they might want to get Taiwan back, they also don't want to lose to Taiwan and lose any grip on the world over a small part of land. If the China-Taiwan war occurs, I think it will be a bigger stress factor for the world economy than Russia vs Ukraine because of stronger economies directly involved and the worldwide impact of both China as a leading manufacturer of so many things and Taiwan's importance for technological progress.

Exactly.  China's moves are wise, they quietly monitor and support Russia in the Ukraine conflict, but watch out for the US and West's reaction and limit tough moves towards the West.  In other words, the situation may change when Russia is dependent on China (some important electronic components, weapons, semiconductor chip industry ..).  This makes the motivation / reason for the scenario of a violent conflict with Taiwan to be realized - the global supply of semiconductor and electronic chips has more than 60% of the export market share from Taiwan.  Russia has also calculated clear options when diversifying its allies and economy with Turkey, Iran, the Middle East.  No matter how the Russian-Ukrainian war ends, I think its influence and impact will last a long time.  The US and China will be the biggest beneficiaries.  Anyway, China still has another backup scenario of blockade and strangulation instead of direct military conflict like Russia did.  China is still beneficial party, they are in no hurry and are fully proactive towards Taiwan to achieve the most favorable situation.

This is one of the reasons why the West, led by the United States, is helping Ukraine in countering the terrorist attack from Russia. China is using Russia as guinea pigs. He looks at how the West will react to the annexation of foreign territories, looks at how the West will react to a terrorist attack, how the world will resist this evil. Why ? Because China planned to play exactly the same scenario with respect to Taiwan - a fake reason to "unite one people", "historical Chinese lands", "saving the Chinese population from the clutches of the wild west", "saving historical values and way of life".
China was well aware of Russia's plans for 2022.
And so China chose the passive side for a reason. China wanted to observe the development of the situation on the "guinea pig" in the form of Russia, without unnecessary risks, in order to understand how acceptable such a path would be for China. Apparently, the Kremlin agreed on this issue with the "big brother". But as always, he deceived, having built his plans, describing himself on his fake greatness and the fake power of his army.
The result for China was not very positive - the whole adequate world united against Russia and began to help Ukraine. For China, this is a bad "bell". Now China needs to invent another way, because. a full-fledged confrontation with the West will lead to very negative consequences for China itself, in the event of the same stupid, direct aggression against Taiwan.

After seeing the horrible effects of Ukraine Russia conflict (despite the fact that my country was not part of that conflict), I strongly believe that there should be no more full scale war as that will bring more disaster to this world. It is imperative to mention that war these days doesn't effect only the countries fighting rather it has global impact. Counties are punished for siding or not siding with big powers. Both US and China are big powers they both must act wisely.

Well the West has to support their own proxy in a war they started! If they did anything else you should have been surprised. That is exactly what they would do with Taiwan too, they will give them weapons to fight China as a proxy and die for the Western warmongers.

I do not expect the United States of America to consider waging an all-out war against China. This is unlikely for the time being at least, but yes, economic war has existed for many years.

Perhaps the scenario is worse for the United States in the event that China and Russia unite together to form a military economic power in the face of the United States, then the world could be on the brink of an abyss, because the occurrence of such a war will turn into a third world war and could eventually turn into an all-out nuclear war portends the destruction of the world.

No one wishes such a scenario to occur, of course, but this possibility remains present, given that the economic war can eventually turn into a military war.

It could weaken some sectors but it will strengthen the US businesses that are into arms manufacturing (the biggest companies are from the US right?).

The US is playing it smart not allowing wars to reach its shores by encircling China (having bases in China's neighboring countries - EDCA). It's like what they (US/NATO) have done in surrounding Russia. In case China losses its patience with what it perceives as US aggression, it is the Asian countries that will be severely affected. The US will definitely feel the effect of the war but it can recover faster.