Topic: Economic sanctions are not a war declaration - page 2. (Read 891 times)

Ok, seems like I have some work here:

a) The commission created is actually to NOT buy gas from Russia, but to find reasonable alternative suppliers without competing.
b) To put things in context, Germany uses around 40% of Russian gas. That is no more than  10% of the total energy consumption of Germany.
c) The liquefaction facilities take a couple of years to build - less if you are really in a hurry, just as I said.
d) An alliance with China an India... sure, go for it and good luck. Putin has shown to be a great partner, who would not want him covering ones back? (It is ironic just in case).
e) Russia has prepared well for sanctions, until Putin got a large chunk of his reserves retained. Did he "prepare" that? What do you think that happens to a country that takes a 10% hit on its GDP after already loosing 10% to COVID? We are talking people looking in thrash cans a the young selling their bodies to save for a ticket out. Even the military may not get paid.

But you biggest piece here: "Force Majeure"

The definition of Force Majeure is certainly not that you currency is devaluating - not even a war unless it damages the infrastructure or makes it impossible to meet the supply - seriously, who told you that Putin supporting the Ruble is even remotely close to the legal definition of force majeure anywhere? Did you make that up yourself or is it the official propaganda?

Not even COVID has been considered as such for many business across several jurisdictions and even in that case you cannot change the payment or rents or other elements of contracts, at most you could not supply if, for example, a super-earthquake breaks the pipes (they are actually designed so that they don't break, but just as example).

The Statista website has reported in the recent article that among European countries the largest dependence on Russian gas is in such countries as North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Moldova, Finland, Latvia and Bulgaria. Next on the list are Germany, Italy, Poland, France, etc.

Russia, under the pressure of sanctions, reduced imports to almost zero, but the Russian economy did not collapse. Russia has been well prepared for sanctions since 2014 and is protected from food shortages amid an energy glut. The import is important, but no instant catastrophic drama came from its overlap.
Many countries in Europe depend on Russian gas, but Germany is the most. Gazprom, even a month after the start of the special operation, pumps the maximum volume through the gas pipeline in Ukraine, showing itself to be a reliable supplier. The imposed sanctions do not allow Gazprom to receive and manage the money received as payment for the supplied gas, and Putin said to sell gas for rubles. For Gazprom, these are force majeure circumstances, quite a good reason to revise all contracts. Moreover, the European Union has created a special European Commission for the purchase of gas from Russia, so as not to create internal competition between different European countries in the price struggle for the same volumes.

Germany needs Russian gas here and now, and the most optimistic strategy for phasing out Russian energy sources is designed for two years. The energy system is designed for a gas pipeline, to switch to liquefied gas it is necessary to build many tankers and terminals - and this is difficult, long and expensive. Most likely, new contracts between Russia and the European Union with the calculation in rubles will be signed directly or through a democratic lining.

The United States is acting according to the old manual, trying to embroil Russia and Germany. However, Russia's turn to the east could create an alliance of Russia, India and China, the likes of which the world has not yet seen in strength.
After the sanctions have blocked the funds of the Central Bank of Russia in dollars and euros, with a ban on operations with gold, it is ridiculous to talk about Russia's default, rather it is a default of the West. Russia lives with a budget surplus and does not have a large external debt.

When Switzerland is somehow reluctant to take your money it is definitely time to worry.

He can announce that he's the King of Mars, that doesn't make it real.


Yeah a good hint as to how bad Putin's regime is.

Until Putin needs to import anything from outside his Tzardom, in which case all the sudden money is, in the end, USD, Euros or Yuans as the ruble has zero use abroad.

Germany - not all Europe - needs a supply of gas that needs to pay in USD, as per the contracts signed for that supply. Putin has broken the international laws of commerce (not that he cares) and will pay dearly for it, as reputation cannot be brought back even paying for it. If you have any doubt about it, just consider if you would ever buy from someone that decides to change the signed terms unilaterally.

As of now, I have not seen Putin cutting the supply either, yet I have seen Germany stating a strategy to diversify the supply in 2 years. Please, kindly as Putin if he thinks China will pay full price for his gas, as they will be their one and only client in 2 years. Ask the 200.000 Russian people that have left their country how they feel about this victory and, to those that remain, ask them how they feel about having the GPD limping and their jobs disappearing.

Putin's Russia has also de-facto defaulted the payment of debt. Would you lend money to Putin again? If you are unsure about the answer, just wait and see.

As soon as Putin announced that Russia would sell gas for rubles, the ruble became the currency backed by Russian gas, which Europe needs right now just to survive and prevent the collapse of industrial production. What you call "money" is no longer money for Putin, the US dollar and the euro are completely discredited in the eyes of Russia by the freezing of foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The ruble is money, the yuan is money, gold also has value, and the US dollar and euro are empty shells, backed by a trust in the US and the EU that no longer exists. And given Russia's large trade surplus, this is more of a problem for the US and the EU than a problem for Russia.

Frankly, I was more surprised by the sanctions from Switzerland, which has remained neutral for more than 300 years and did not refuse service even to Hitler. In essence, this means that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has ceased to be subordinate to the Bank for International Settlements and is pursuing an independent monetary policy with priority on the interests of Russia. If the EU buys gas for rubles, the ruble will begin to strengthen to any price levels that suit the Central Bank of Russia. And all the risks and overheads from circumventing its own sanctions will fall on the shoulders of the European Union.

Yes he can threaten them but he can probably just shut it of if he get cornered enough. Maybe not entirely, maybe just halt it for a few hours to cause interruptions to make it clear that they need it. So far it hasn't happened because they did not do any drastic military actions yet.

Exactly my point. Listening to that shit turned your brain into porridge. It's not a coincidence that dictatorships like China - or wannabe dictatorships like Serbia or India - that have their own territorial delusions are Putin's biggest supporters. Should probably start working on plan B if the "world's best / 2nd best / 3rd best (depending on whom you ask) military" with crusty WW2 equipment and untrained hungry cannon fodder is unable to fulfill Putin's ambitions.

Didn't he imprison his counterpart and shut down TV stations criticizing him?
The US media hailed him so much like a hero but it's really not. It's just on TV. In reality, he is a strong comedian. Ukrainian even despises this president for having no balls to fight back Biden administration but instead led his country to destruction. Pity this president will just be a bad memory for Ukrainian.

Too bad for Biden too because there is no option but sanctions only and India realized who their real friends are. No options now but to wage sanctions against Russia without proxy war soon. Like Putin said sanctions are for weaklings. Narendra Modi realizes, Biden is a demented old fart who will likely singlehandedly crush their dreams of controlling the orients.

You say that like it's a bad thing.
But this is your wet fantasy. I do not see the prerequisites for mass mobilization in Russia; professional military personnel are doing their job quite well. Yesterday there was a report of the Russian Ministry of Defense for the month of the operation, and the whole world was surprised to note the accuracy and transparency of official data. And here is the opinion of a member of the right-wing radical organization "Fundamentals of the Future" about the fighters of the defense, actively practicing "friendly fire". With such friends, Ukraine does not need enemies, you yourself will shoot each other there.
Do not shift from a sick head to a healthy one. Russians for the most part live ordinary lives every day, children go to school and adults go to work or go about their own business. Drivers are happy that gasoline and gas prices have fallen, stores are full of shelves with food, although food prices have risen slightly. There are no mass demonstrations and torchlight processions on the streets, as happened at times, for example, in Kyiv. The Russian people approve of the operation because they do not like Nazism and do not intend to endure threats against them from anyone. There is no corpus delicti on the Russian side.

Oh,  yeah, totally agree with you.. That is why I want to throw up when somebody tells this war is only guilt of Putin, because only him is a mad dictator, and poor russians don’t want this at all, they are just so afraid to fight back. All this is  a bullshit. If there were normal people in this roten country, they have moved away years ago. People, who are leaving now, this several thousands, are not opposing power, they are just cowards, who started to leave the sinking ship. Some of them were really supporting their sachem so far it has not had any negative consequences for them.  If it was due to their conscious position or disagreement with the government, they would have done this much earlier, because this war against Ukraine didn’t begin suddenly, it was prepared for years, only blind ones could miss all this preparations. That is why, every single russian is responsible for the terror their government and their army brought to my land. Most of them openly support huilo’s “political” actions, the rest of them are doing nothing to stop this horror, it means that they are responsible for criminal inaction.

In a month, Putin's popularity will reach 100%. And the economic fallout will be blamed on the Nazi West.

Closed borders and a military draft will follow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHomETco0MI

I do not agree. Popular support for Putin has grown significantly since the start of the special operation in Ukraine, and now he is supported by 70-80% of Russians. It would be much more difficult for Putin to achieve his goals without the support of the population. Support for Biden in the US is now at an all-time low and does not exceed 40% of the population. European politicians feel even less confident - Europeans are already being offered not just to start saving, but they really face the prospect of freezing next winter.

LOL fucking hell... brain damage from too much TV is a real thing apparently.

I know "election" is a foreign concept in Russia but if wikipedia is not banned yet - read up on it.

This obsession with strongman personality is mostly responsible for the shithole Russia finds itself in right now. OTOH - take out Zelensky and Ukrainians would probably fight even harder because their fight isn't about one person.

It's a war between 2 dictators of Ukraine and Russia but in reality, it's US vs Russia. We all know the story of this which could have been avoided if the US just didn't go to Ukraine making Zelenskyy a pawn. Pity the guy which he could have been hailed great if he were a true dictator who stands his own ground without someone dictating him but seem still a lapdog of Biden.

I think it's just how the council sees it. Putin is also sanctioning countries that are not friendly to Russia to which they have to use Ruble to buy gas. That's one kind of sanction that also pumped the ruble price.

If you are from US side and will be sanctioned by China to close down the manufacturing companies of the US like Apple and etc, they could actually do that. Will that be considered a declaration of war?

Please don't stoop to cheap demagogic tricks while talking to me, thank you. The US has justified the death of 500,000 children in Iraq, even though it never found the weapons of mass destruction it claimed to have as a pretext for an invasion. The United States is also responsible for what is happening now in Ukraine. It was they who organized the Maidan in Kyiv, cultivated nationalist and anti-Russian sentiments for years, overthrew the legitimate president, supplied and continue to supply weapons to Ukraine. Inciting instability in the region is beneficial for the United States - it weakens Russia and destroys a competitor in the form of the European Union, and also alleviates its own economic crisis by pushing investors to flee to the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, which are otherwise unattractive due to negative yields amid inflation. Putin told Biden when they met in December 2021 "the red line is here, don't cross it." Biden ignored Putin because it benefits him.

There are 24 ways to lure a sleeping bear out of its lair, but there is no way to bring it back.

I have already offered this putin’s fan to do this. But he prefers to sit in his nice chair, surrounded by security and just look to how his “great” army provides “denazification” of Ukrainian maternity houses, children’s hospitals and civil buildings.

I just can't believe that you just tried to white-wash the killing of children.

As it is "unfortunate" that many young Russian soldiers have to die in vain for the delusions of a septuagenarian. As it is "unfortunate" that so many Russians - many not supporting Putin - will have hardship and poverty when no decent company would want to be in Russia nor touch their exports.

But most of all, I encourage you, so supportive of the war, to go there yourself. I am sure that you will be a fierce combatant in the name of Putin and will not care about the "unfortunate risks" that you may encounter along the way. You see, it is quite different from throwing shit-talk behind a keyboard where the only risk is to twist your fingers or, worst case, starting to really believe your own bullshit.


It is starting to look quite pathetic. It must be difficult to be in the propaganda directorate under Putin... perhaps we should ask a few people around this thread how things are going in the company.

AKA propaganda with no actual economic impact.