Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 198.

arallmuus

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Quote from: ralle14 on September 25, 2022, 10:55:15 AM

the same goes for Team Liquid it'll be impressive for them to at least grab a map or will Cloud9 continue their run even though there's nothing to play since they've already secured the top spot.

Watching this now, pretty close right now and Team Liquid has slight dominance though. Its not that it really matters at this point but honestly I cant believe that Cloud9 will keep on running this hot without losing a single map, thats kinda absurd especially in this tournament so Im taking Team Liquid to win a single map. At this time of writing, its currently 7-9 for Team Liquid so yeah its a small hope for me

Balmain

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In the BLAST Fall Showdown qualifiers, EF managed to beat Mouz 2-1 and they will play the Sınners team in the final. They played a good game in Vertigo, it was easy, the first map was their choice anyway. They did well on the Mirage map, but they couldn't keep up and this map was lost. The match was won with a very good comeback on the Nuke map, I thought it was lost for a second. On the other hand, now Movie Riders match has started in the ESL pro league. Movie Riders haven't scored yet EF is starting to get in form, let's see if they can win this match.

Pulsar77

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Quote from: blue_hurricanger on September 25, 2022, 03:50:19 AM

woxic and xantares can stay in Eternal Fire since they carry the team hard. maj3r is igl so unless they found a better igl but also Turkish, else he is also staying. That leaves paz and imoRR as free to swap out if they found someone better. Usually, pro has a young talent or two on their team to future-proof. Also, the young talents has more room to grow while oldies already hit the skill ceiling, they can't contribute to the future of the team anymore. paz seems like the latter here.

Also just found Eternal Fire did have an academy for homegrown young Turkish into the pro-CS, called Eternal Fire Academy. xfl0ud (kid is 19 years old, quite decent in rifler) got benched and they signed up with paz as currently. btw, the chance for Eternal Fire to pass the group stage, into the playoff is too low. Too many 'if' which adds a lot of pressure on their own game. I doubt they could get a clean 2-0 win to fuel that hope.

In the recent matches, woxic started to take more responsibility and he has been getting so many frags for a few matches. It looks like the new strategy is working better for them and I expect the same strategy against Movistar Riders on both maps also. XANTARES is absolutely the mainstay of the team now. If they didn't have his extra performance most of the time then they would give up on many matches much earlier. Maybe he isn't the IGL but the team respect his calls a lot. MAJ3R is doing a good job at his IGL role for now. Things are better compared to the times woxic had the same role.

By the way Eternal Fire started very well and they are in the lead by 5-0 on Vertigo. They are taking the steps needed for comfortable wins on the first two maps but it is still early to talk about it of course. They need to be concentrated from the beginning to the end not to screw things up. In addition, the next map is Overpass and the decider is Inferno.

ralle14

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Quote from: jakelyson on September 24, 2022, 10:31:59 PM

I feel bad for EF, they have to rely on the luck of other teams in order to continue in the tournament.

That's just how it is after performing badly against one of the weaker teams in the group, but still having that small chance is better than nothing and we've seen unexpected things happen in the other groups. It'll be interesting to see how FURIA would perform after a loss and the same goes for Team Liquid it'll be impressive for them to at least grab a map or will Cloud9 continue their run even though there's nothing to play since they've already secured the top spot.

blue_hurricanger

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Quote from: Balmain on September 24, 2022, 02:59:02 PM

Quote from: Pulsar77 on September 24, 2022, 11:21:30 AM

I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

I don't think making any changes to the team will do any good right now. He was a ''Paz'' Space soldiers player and he has very good friendships and communication with the team, rather he needs some getting used to in the new EF. They won today's Team Liquid match thanks to w0xic's individual performance, averaging 30 frags across both maps, which was tremendous. Currently, we can see the differences between individual players in the matches, Xantares and Woxic can carry the team. If this team does not break down, I think they will progress further. By the way, EF has no chance of successfully exiting the group.. Meanwhile, Team liquid lost today, putting their top-three finish in the group too much at risk.

woxic and xantares can stay in Eternal Fire since they carry the team hard. maj3r is igl so unless they found a better igl but also Turkish, else he is also staying. That leaves paz and imoRR as free to swap out if they found someone better. Usually, pro has a young talent or two on their team to future-proof. Also, the young talents has more room to grow while oldies already hit the skill ceiling, they can't contribute to the future of the team anymore. paz seems like the latter here.

Also just found Eternal Fire did have an academy for homegrown young Turkish into the pro-CS, called Eternal Fire Academy. xfl0ud (kid is 19 years old, quite decent in rifler) got benched and they signed up with paz as currently. btw, the chance for Eternal Fire to pass the group stage, into the playoff is too low. Too many 'if' which adds a lot of pressure on their own game. I doubt they could get a clean 2-0 win to fuel that hope.

jakelyson

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Quote from: edgycorner on September 24, 2022, 08:17:48 PM

Seems like EF will have to win by 2-0 and liquid & EG must lose by 0-2 for EF to have a chance

It's going to be very tough, odds are like 1 in 30 for something like this to happen
But it's still possible

Credit for the spreadsheet: https://twitter.com/Lipski__/status/1573762952540323843/photo/1

Thanks for a very detailed spreadsheet. Now I understand. So, basically, both EG and Liquid need to lose so badly for EF to get into the playoffs.

With the tournament on the line though, I would expect both these teams to try their best to win against their opponents.

I feel bad for EF, they have to rely on the luck of other teams in order to continue in the tournament.

edgycorner

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Hurrah for Karamazov!

Quote from: jakelyson on September 24, 2022, 06:36:48 PM

Quote from: edgycorner on September 24, 2022, 05:30:46 PM

Quote from: jakelyson on September 24, 2022, 05:09:36 PM

Quote from: emrecemsan on September 24, 2022, 04:35:46 PM

We can say that things are already clear in Group D. I'm afraid it is nearly impossible for Eternal Fire to finish the group at the 3rd place in the worst case. Let's say EG and Liquid both lost, Eternal Fire will still need to win against Movistar Riders by a huge round difference. In short, they need a miracle tomorrow. Grin

I think FURIA will defeat EG but Liquid will manage to defeat Cloud9 also. Cloud9 are already in a safe condition and they will most probably end the group as the leader even if they lose this one. Liquid might react to the shocking Eternal Fire loss strongly by winning this and secure themselves in the group. FURIA @1.24, Eternal Fire @1.53 and Liquid @2.65 are my choices for tomorrow's matches. Maybe it is a risky parlay but I'll give it a chance.

Eternal Fire will not be able to make the cut for the playoffs but they gave EG a fighting chance to steal the spot from Team Liquid. It is a long shot though that they will take 2 maps against Furia but sometimes upsets happen in CS. EG is gaining momentum and confidence in winning two series in a row.

Eternal fire can still make it.

This is how:

1.)Cloud 9 needs to beat liquid by 2-0
2.)Furia needs to beat EG
3.)EF needs to win by 2-0 against Botstar riders

If these 3 things happen then EF will qualify 100%

It's a long shot tho. But I can see it happening Cheesy

Since all EF needs is the favourites to win their respective matches.

I am not very familiar with how tiebreakers work in CS, but if that happens, don't they all tie 2-3? Liquid and EF are tied in maps won but Liquid is way ahead in points.

How will EF outrank Liquid if they end up tying? Can somebody explain it.

Here's a spreadsheet of how things will go down in diff scenarios

Seems like EF will have to win by 2-0 and liquid & EG must lose by 0-2 for EF to have a chance

It's going to be very tough, odds are like 1 in 30 for something like this to happen
But it's still possible

Credit for the spreadsheet: https://twitter.com/Lipski__/status/1573762952540323843/photo/1

CLS63

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Quote from: jakelyson on September 24, 2022, 06:36:48 PM

I am not very familiar with how tiebreakers work in CS, but if that happens, don't they all tie 2-3? Liquid and EF are tied in maps won but Liquid is way ahead in points.

How will EF outrank Liquid if they end up tying? Can somebody explain it.

In case of a tie in points, total round differences are going to be taken into account to determine what team are going to be ahead. This happened in Group A for example. Natus Vincere, Spirit and NIP all won 2 times in the group and were fighting for the 3rd spot. However thanks to having a bigger total round difference, Natus Vincere captured the spot to move on in the tournament.

It will be the same for Eternal Fire also but they aren't in a good condition in terms of total round difference. It is very difficult for them to get ahead of Liquid or EG in this. Who knows maybe both of them will have terrible results which will pave the way for Eternal Fire all of a sudden. Eternal Fire should only focus on destroying Movistar Riders 2-0 with big map scores.

sunsilk

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Quote from: dothebeats on September 24, 2022, 03:27:48 PM

Just recently watched the True Sight and I just want to point out that maybe the reason why PSG.LGD always loses in the finals is because xiao8 is acting extremely tensed and seems like a dick towards his team. XinnQ received the bulk of Xiao8's bad manners at the start of the documentary but he still managed to uplift his team's spirits. Xiao8 doesn't even believe in his team's suggestions on picks and just goes for what he only thinks can win the game, making uncomfortable picks for LGD. Hopefully they win this year's TI, it's saddening to watch ame chase for the aegis for so long but only always come extremely close.

I haven't watched yet the True Sight for TI10 but from the discussions that I've read, many have said that the allegations against xiao8 isn't true.

Many have felt bad for Ame, he still hasn't won a TI championship and hopefully, this year would be his.

Although there are other teams that also deserves to have that title, we'll see if they'll still able to reach the grand finals.

jakelyson

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Quote from: edgycorner on September 24, 2022, 05:30:46 PM

Quote from: jakelyson on September 24, 2022, 05:09:36 PM

Quote from: emrecemsan on September 24, 2022, 04:35:46 PM

We can say that things are already clear in Group D. I'm afraid it is nearly impossible for Eternal Fire to finish the group at the 3rd place in the worst case. Let's say EG and Liquid both lost, Eternal Fire will still need to win against Movistar Riders by a huge round difference. In short, they need a miracle tomorrow. Grin

I think FURIA will defeat EG but Liquid will manage to defeat Cloud9 also. Cloud9 are already in a safe condition and they will most probably end the group as the leader even if they lose this one. Liquid might react to the shocking Eternal Fire loss strongly by winning this and secure themselves in the group. FURIA @1.24, Eternal Fire @1.53 and Liquid @2.65 are my choices for tomorrow's matches. Maybe it is a risky parlay but I'll give it a chance.

Eternal Fire will not be able to make the cut for the playoffs but they gave EG a fighting chance to steal the spot from Team Liquid. It is a long shot though that they will take 2 maps against Furia but sometimes upsets happen in CS. EG is gaining momentum and confidence in winning two series in a row.

Eternal fire can still make it.

This is how:

1.)Cloud 9 needs to beat liquid by 2-0
2.)Furia needs to beat EG
3.)EF needs to win by 2-0 against Botstar riders

If these 3 things happen then EF will qualify 100%

It's a long shot tho. But I can see it happening Cheesy

Since all EF needs is the favourites to win their respective matches.

I am not very familiar with how tiebreakers work in CS, but if that happens, don't they all tie 2-3? Liquid and EF are tied in maps won but Liquid is way ahead in points.

How will EF outrank Liquid if they end up tying? Can somebody explain it.

edgycorner

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Hurrah for Karamazov!

Quote from: jakelyson on September 24, 2022, 05:09:36 PM

Quote from: emrecemsan on September 24, 2022, 04:35:46 PM

We can say that things are already clear in Group D. I'm afraid it is nearly impossible for Eternal Fire to finish the group at the 3rd place in the worst case. Let's say EG and Liquid both lost, Eternal Fire will still need to win against Movistar Riders by a huge round difference. In short, they need a miracle tomorrow. Grin

I think FURIA will defeat EG but Liquid will manage to defeat Cloud9 also. Cloud9 are already in a safe condition and they will most probably end the group as the leader even if they lose this one. Liquid might react to the shocking Eternal Fire loss strongly by winning this and secure themselves in the group. FURIA @1.24, Eternal Fire @1.53 and Liquid @2.65 are my choices for tomorrow's matches. Maybe it is a risky parlay but I'll give it a chance.

Eternal Fire will not be able to make the cut for the playoffs but they gave EG a fighting chance to steal the spot from Team Liquid. It is a long shot though that they will take 2 maps against Furia but sometimes upsets happen in CS. EG is gaining momentum and confidence in winning two series in a row.

Eternal fire can still make it.

This is how:

1.)Cloud 9 needs to beat liquid by 2-0
2.)Furia needs to beat EG
3.)EF needs to win by 2-0 against Botstar riders

If these 3 things happen then EF will qualify 100%

It's a long shot tho. But I can see it happening Cheesy

Since all EF needs is the favourites to win their respective matches.

jakelyson

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Quote from: emrecemsan on September 24, 2022, 04:35:46 PM

We can say that things are already clear in Group D. I'm afraid it is nearly impossible for Eternal Fire to finish the group at the 3rd place in the worst case. Let's say EG and Liquid both lost, Eternal Fire will still need to win against Movistar Riders by a huge round difference. In short, they need a miracle tomorrow. Grin

I think FURIA will defeat EG but Liquid will manage to defeat Cloud9 also. Cloud9 are already in a safe condition and they will most probably end the group as the leader even if they lose this one. Liquid might react to the shocking Eternal Fire loss strongly by winning this and secure themselves in the group. FURIA @1.24, Eternal Fire @1.53 and Liquid @2.65 are my choices for tomorrow's matches. Maybe it is a risky parlay but I'll give it a chance.

Eternal Fire will not be able to make the cut for the playoffs but they gave EG a fighting chance to steal the spot from Team Liquid. It is a long shot though that they will take 2 maps against Furia but sometimes upsets happen in CS. EG is gaining momentum and confidence in winning two series in a row.

emrecemsan

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We can say that things are already clear in Group D. I'm afraid it is nearly impossible for Eternal Fire to finish the group at the 3rd place in the worst case. Let's say EG and Liquid both lost, Eternal Fire will still need to win against Movistar Riders by a huge round difference. In short, they need a miracle tomorrow. Grin

I think FURIA will defeat EG but Liquid will manage to defeat Cloud9 also. Cloud9 are already in a safe condition and they will most probably end the group as the leader even if they lose this one. Liquid might react to the shocking Eternal Fire loss strongly by winning this and secure themselves in the group. FURIA @1.24, Eternal Fire @1.53 and Liquid @2.65 are my choices for tomorrow's matches. Maybe it is a risky parlay but I'll give it a chance.

arallmuus

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Quote from: dothebeats on September 24, 2022, 03:27:48 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on September 24, 2022, 03:05:50 PM

-snip

This must be your sport really. I also saw the line at a local bookie for 1.74 for draw and I thought it's not worth it given that Hokori has high chances to 2-0 this team. Or maybe because the odds already shifted because a lot has already bet for the same thing. Oh well, good luck to all your bets.

This one lost though.

Nah, I was confusing it with something else. +1.5 is not the same as the draw option. Basically, taking +1.5 means you win the bet with either Hokori win a map or both of them while draw means that Hokori should only win a map and lose the other so yeah the odds are basically higher by taking the draw option. It was an honest mistake on my part but yeah that bet ended up losing either way

dothebeats

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Quote from: arallmuus on September 24, 2022, 03:05:50 PM

Quote from: Trofo on September 24, 2022, 04:17:47 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

-snip

I have taken Hokori +1.5 @1.8 today but for much lower stake than TNC yesterday.

Wait what, only 1.8? Its pretty low. I got 2.24 by taking the draw option. Its best of 2 though so draw basically means the same as +1.5 as well isnt it because to win with +1.5 that means the respective team needs to win atleast game. Yesterday I saw Boom at around 1.35 either win or +1.5 so I thought it would have been the same

This must be your sport really. I also saw the line at a local bookie for 1.74 for draw and I thought it's not worth it given that Hokori has high chances to 2-0 this team. Or maybe because the odds already shifted because a lot has already bet for the same thing. Oh well, good luck to all your bets.

--

Just recently watched the True Sight and I just want to point out that maybe the reason why PSG.LGD always loses in the finals is because xiao8 is acting extremely tensed and seems like a dick towards his team. XinnQ received the bulk of Xiao8's bad manners at the start of the documentary but he still managed to uplift his team's spirits. Xiao8 doesn't even believe in his team's suggestions on picks and just goes for what he only thinks can win the game, making uncomfortable picks for LGD. Hopefully they win this year's TI, it's saddening to watch ame chase for the aegis for so long but only always come extremely close.

arallmuus

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Quote from: Trofo on September 24, 2022, 04:17:47 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

-snip

I have taken Hokori +1.5 @1.8 today but for much lower stake than TNC yesterday.

Wait what, only 1.8? Its pretty low. I got 2.24 by taking the draw option. Its best of 2 though so draw basically means the same as +1.5 as well isnt it because to win with +1.5 that means the respective team needs to win atleast game. Yesterday I saw Boom at around 1.35 either win or +1.5 so I thought it would have been the same

Edit : it seems I was confused about this but yeah +1.5 is not the same as taking draw

Balmain

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Quote from: Pulsar77 on September 24, 2022, 11:21:30 AM

I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

I don't think making any changes to the team will do any good right now. He was a ''Paz'' Space soldiers player and he has very good friendships and communication with the team, rather he needs some getting used to in the new EF. They won today's Team Liquid match thanks to w0xic's individual performance, averaging 30 frags across both maps, which was tremendous. Currently, we can see the differences between individual players in the matches, Xantares and Woxic can carry the team. If this team does not break down, I think they will progress further. By the way, EF has no chance of successfully exiting the group.. Meanwhile, Team liquid lost today, putting their top-three finish in the group too much at risk.

ralle14

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Quote from: Pulsar77 on September 24, 2022, 11:21:30 AM

I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

Even though it's late from Eternal Fire it's still nice to see them get a win at the very least and maybe it's because there's less pressure on their side now since they're close to getting eliminated or maybe Team Liquid got broken by FURIA yesterday.

The best case scenario for Eternal Fire is if they get a clean 2-0 against Movistar Riders while EG and Team Liquid loses 2-0 but I agree top 3 is looking unlikely since Team Liquid only need one map win to come out ahead in the tiebreakers.

Pulsar77

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I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

passwordnow

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Quote from: jakelyson on September 23, 2022, 05:57:02 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on September 23, 2022, 04:26:19 PM

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament. I've also noticed that Outsiders old name is now back to Virtus.Pro, I guess that things are pretty calm now and their sponsors are back again.
While for my pick on group A is either VG or Secret but yeah, even if Chinese teams are too disciplined, Puppey and the gang has some counter to them already. While in group B, still eyeing for T1.

I am not putting too much hope on T1 right now. Even though they have ANA and TOPSON on their team, they are still far from perfect. The other members are dead weight as they have shown in SEA qualifiers. ANA and Topson is not enough to carry the team to TI. They have 2 weeks to go to perfect their combination and get better in drafting. I rank Polaris above them for now since they got them 2-0 in sea qualifiers. They have a tough group to deal with. They have to be in perfect form to be able to get past through Xtreme gaming, liquid, VP, and wildcard.

Yeah, they're like a huge downgrade and after losing against Polaris and not securing a spot, many have already lessened their expectations of them. But, what I'm impressed with right now is how these two TI champs are grinding every day. So, that's why I still have my eye on them to get the 1 slot out of two for this last chance qualifier.

Quote from: ralle14 on September 23, 2022, 08:49:32 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on September 23, 2022, 04:26:19 PM

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament.

I agree, Polaris and Infamous can put up a surprise since these teams have notable players that used to play in LAN tournaments.

Yeah, also that team, Infamous. They can really set some huge upset from these tier 1 teams that's part of the last chance.

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 198. (Read 78975 times)