Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 194.

emrecemsan

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We can say that things are already clear in Group D. I'm afraid it is nearly impossible for Eternal Fire to finish the group at the 3rd place in the worst case. Let's say EG and Liquid both lost, Eternal Fire will still need to win against Movistar Riders by a huge round difference. In short, they need a miracle tomorrow. Grin

I think FURIA will defeat EG but Liquid will manage to defeat Cloud9 also. Cloud9 are already in a safe condition and they will most probably end the group as the leader even if they lose this one. Liquid might react to the shocking Eternal Fire loss strongly by winning this and secure themselves in the group. FURIA @1.24, Eternal Fire @1.53 and Liquid @2.65 are my choices for tomorrow's matches. Maybe it is a risky parlay but I'll give it a chance.

arallmuus

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Quote from: dothebeats on September 24, 2022, 03:27:48 PM

Quote from: arallmuus on September 24, 2022, 03:05:50 PM

-snip

This must be your sport really. I also saw the line at a local bookie for 1.74 for draw and I thought it's not worth it given that Hokori has high chances to 2-0 this team. Or maybe because the odds already shifted because a lot has already bet for the same thing. Oh well, good luck to all your bets.

This one lost though.

Nah, I was confusing it with something else. +1.5 is not the same as the draw option. Basically, taking +1.5 means you win the bet with either Hokori win a map or both of them while draw means that Hokori should only win a map and lose the other so yeah the odds are basically higher by taking the draw option. It was an honest mistake on my part but yeah that bet ended up losing either way

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Quote from: arallmuus on September 24, 2022, 03:05:50 PM

Quote from: Trofo on September 24, 2022, 04:17:47 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

-snip

I have taken Hokori +1.5 @1.8 today but for much lower stake than TNC yesterday.

Wait what, only 1.8? Its pretty low. I got 2.24 by taking the draw option. Its best of 2 though so draw basically means the same as +1.5 as well isnt it because to win with +1.5 that means the respective team needs to win atleast game. Yesterday I saw Boom at around 1.35 either win or +1.5 so I thought it would have been the same

This must be your sport really. I also saw the line at a local bookie for 1.74 for draw and I thought it's not worth it given that Hokori has high chances to 2-0 this team. Or maybe because the odds already shifted because a lot has already bet for the same thing. Oh well, good luck to all your bets.

--

Just recently watched the True Sight and I just want to point out that maybe the reason why PSG.LGD always loses in the finals is because xiao8 is acting extremely tensed and seems like a dick towards his team. XinnQ received the bulk of Xiao8's bad manners at the start of the documentary but he still managed to uplift his team's spirits. Xiao8 doesn't even believe in his team's suggestions on picks and just goes for what he only thinks can win the game, making uncomfortable picks for LGD. Hopefully they win this year's TI, it's saddening to watch ame chase for the aegis for so long but only always come extremely close.

arallmuus

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Quote from: Trofo on September 24, 2022, 04:17:47 AM

Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

-snip

I have taken Hokori +1.5 @1.8 today but for much lower stake than TNC yesterday.

Wait what, only 1.8? Its pretty low. I got 2.24 by taking the draw option. Its best of 2 though so draw basically means the same as +1.5 as well isnt it because to win with +1.5 that means the respective team needs to win atleast game. Yesterday I saw Boom at around 1.35 either win or +1.5 so I thought it would have been the same

Edit : it seems I was confused about this but yeah +1.5 is not the same as taking draw

Balmain

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Quote from: Pulsar77 on September 24, 2022, 11:21:30 AM

I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

I don't think making any changes to the team will do any good right now. He was a ''Paz'' Space soldiers player and he has very good friendships and communication with the team, rather he needs some getting used to in the new EF. They won today's Team Liquid match thanks to w0xic's individual performance, averaging 30 frags across both maps, which was tremendous. Currently, we can see the differences between individual players in the matches, Xantares and Woxic can carry the team. If this team does not break down, I think they will progress further. By the way, EF has no chance of successfully exiting the group.. Meanwhile, Team liquid lost today, putting their top-three finish in the group too much at risk.

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Quote from: Pulsar77 on September 24, 2022, 11:21:30 AM

I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

Even though it's late from Eternal Fire it's still nice to see them get a win at the very least and maybe it's because there's less pressure on their side now since they're close to getting eliminated or maybe Team Liquid got broken by FURIA yesterday.

The best case scenario for Eternal Fire is if they get a clean 2-0 against Movistar Riders while EG and Team Liquid loses 2-0 but I agree top 3 is looking unlikely since Team Liquid only need one map win to come out ahead in the tiebreakers.

Pulsar77

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I don't know why Eternal Fire waited this long to start playing this much effectively. Grin

I mean that they are performing great against Liquid now. First they beat Liquid on Vertigo by 16-13. And now they are 15-10 ahead on Inferno and this was Liquid's pick also. We are finally watching a strong team performance from Eternal Fire players but all this effort won't help them enter top 3 most probably. Because even if they win this and the last game their chance to qualify is very low especially due to their total round difference. It is too bad compared to the teams that have six points now. I just wish them to take the right steps from now on. I believe xfl0ud should come back to the roster again instead of staying benched.

passwordnow

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Quote from: jakelyson on September 23, 2022, 05:57:02 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on September 23, 2022, 04:26:19 PM

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament. I've also noticed that Outsiders old name is now back to Virtus.Pro, I guess that things are pretty calm now and their sponsors are back again.
While for my pick on group A is either VG or Secret but yeah, even if Chinese teams are too disciplined, Puppey and the gang has some counter to them already. While in group B, still eyeing for T1.

I am not putting too much hope on T1 right now. Even though they have ANA and TOPSON on their team, they are still far from perfect. The other members are dead weight as they have shown in SEA qualifiers. ANA and Topson is not enough to carry the team to TI. They have 2 weeks to go to perfect their combination and get better in drafting. I rank Polaris above them for now since they got them 2-0 in sea qualifiers. They have a tough group to deal with. They have to be in perfect form to be able to get past through Xtreme gaming, liquid, VP, and wildcard.

Yeah, they're like a huge downgrade and after losing against Polaris and not securing a spot, many have already lessened their expectations of them. But, what I'm impressed with right now is how these two TI champs are grinding every day. So, that's why I still have my eye on them to get the 1 slot out of two for this last chance qualifier.

Quote from: ralle14 on September 23, 2022, 08:49:32 PM

Quote from: passwordnow on September 23, 2022, 04:26:19 PM

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament.

I agree, Polaris and Infamous can put up a surprise since these teams have notable players that used to play in LAN tournaments.

Yeah, also that team, Infamous. They can really set some huge upset from these tier 1 teams that's part of the last chance.

Trofo

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Quote from: tomahawk9 on September 23, 2022, 03:14:59 PM

lol
yeah i know you're killing it in Dota alright Wink

You better post some of your pre-match picks during The International, i wanna make some bank too Grin

Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

I might bet on Hokori against Boom tomorrow though

is it worth it? i mean, do you see the teams taking this tourney seriously? or is it full of meme drafts and dodgy strats? i'm getting sick and tired of tier 3 csgo in the esl Pro League (at least in group stage) and i kinda wanna place some dota tickets again

I have taken Hokori +1.5 @1.8 today but for much lower stake than TNC yesterday. There simply isn't that much value in these odds. I see Boom as much better team then both TNC and Hokori and I rate their chances to win at about the same. It all comes down to that one map when they have a bit experimental draft maybe and their opponent manages to convert that advantage. Yesterday that choice was paying at 4 and today it is less then 2.

It is all about what I perceive as wrong odds from bookies. Yesterday they were off, today they seem spot on.

blue_hurricanger

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Quote from: Distraction on September 23, 2022, 03:49:01 PM

We can clearly say that Eternal Fire are out of ESL Pro League after this huge defeat against Evil Geniuses also by 2-0. Even if they win both of their remaining matches it wouldn't still be enough. They have a chance mathematically of course but it is a very far possibility in the end. I still don't get how they managed to play even worse against the weakest opponent they have in this group. It must have been a clear victory for Eternal Fire instead and this would have been enough to boost their morale significantly.

I had hopes about Dust2 map at least but Eternal Fire performed even worse there and lost by 16-4. I think keeping imoRR in the main roster is a big mistake. They should replace him with xfl0ud as soon as possible to have a more reliable roster. He is a younger player and I believe he is much more talented. He is a much better team player also. imoRR is just hurting this team by simple individual mistakes. XANTARES said that he was their entry fragger but it looks like imoRR got this really wrong. Grin

So far, this group seems easy for Liquid, Cloud9, Furia go to the playoff. EG, MovieStar Rider and Eternal Fire didn't even try or they don't have enough skill to do it. All the victories ended like 2-0 or under. Boring but more predictable for the bettors.
Also, want to as if Türkiye has young academy to train CS pro? Cause right now, xantares's teammate in Eternal Fire can't keep up with him anymore. Better shuffle some young talent into the team and hope for the better.

ralle14

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Quote from: Distraction on September 23, 2022, 03:49:01 PM

We can clearly say that Eternal Fire are out of ESL Pro League after this huge defeat against Evil Geniuses also by 2-0. Even if they win both of their remaining matches it wouldn't still be enough. They have a chance mathematically of course but it is a very far possibility in the end. I still don't get how they managed to play even worse against the weakest opponent they have in this group. It must have been a clear victory for Eternal Fire instead and this would have been enough to boost their morale significantly.

I also didn't expect Eternal Fire to just flat out lose like that even against EG after looking much more competitive on the first day. Initially, I thought EG won't even get but Eternal Fire is on another level of bad when they made EG look like a decent team.

Quote from: passwordnow on September 23, 2022, 04:26:19 PM

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament.

I agree, Polaris and Infamous can put up a surprise since these teams have notable players that used to play in LAN tournaments.

jakelyson

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Quote from: passwordnow on September 23, 2022, 04:26:19 PM

Quote from: dothebeats on September 23, 2022, 10:55:10 AM

Group A on Dota 2 TI Last Chance Qualifiers seem to be chill for Secret, with nouns and VG being the only real threat to the European team. Polaris can slither their way through the qualifiers if they manage to get through nouns on their first match, though that is highly unlikely given how tight nouns played in the NA qualifiers against Soniqs even though they were 3-0'd by the said team. It's anyone's game at this point, although my top picks for each group is obviously Secret for group A, and T1 for group B, with VP/Outsiders being a close second.

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament. I've also noticed that Outsiders old name is now back to Virtus.Pro, I guess that things are pretty calm now and their sponsors are back again.
While for my pick on group A is either VG or Secret but yeah, even if Chinese teams are too disciplined, Puppey and the gang has some counter to them already. While in group B, still eyeing for T1.

I am not putting too much hope on T1 right now. Even though they have ANA and TOPSON on their team, they are still far from perfect. The other members are dead weight as they have shown in SEA qualifiers. ANA and Topson is not enough to carry the team to TI. They have 2 weeks to go to perfect their combination and get better in drafting. I rank Polaris above them for now since they got them 2-0 in sea qualifiers. They have a tough group to deal with. They have to be in perfect form to be able to get past through Xtreme gaming, liquid, VP, and wildcard.

passwordnow

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Quote from: dothebeats on September 23, 2022, 10:55:10 AM

Group A on Dota 2 TI Last Chance Qualifiers seem to be chill for Secret, with nouns and VG being the only real threat to the European team. Polaris can slither their way through the qualifiers if they manage to get through nouns on their first match, though that is highly unlikely given how tight nouns played in the NA qualifiers against Soniqs even though they were 3-0'd by the said team. It's anyone's game at this point, although my top picks for each group is obviously Secret for group A, and T1 for group B, with VP/Outsiders being a close second.

Polaris is like the dark horse of the tournament. I've also noticed that Outsiders old name is now back to Virtus.Pro, I guess that things are pretty calm now and their sponsors are back again.
While for my pick on group A is either VG or Secret but yeah, even if Chinese teams are too disciplined, Puppey and the gang has some counter to them already. While in group B, still eyeing for T1.

Distraction

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We can clearly say that Eternal Fire are out of ESL Pro League after this huge defeat against Evil Geniuses also by 2-0. Even if they win both of their remaining matches it wouldn't still be enough. They have a chance mathematically of course but it is a very far possibility in the end. I still don't get how they managed to play even worse against the weakest opponent they have in this group. It must have been a clear victory for Eternal Fire instead and this would have been enough to boost their morale significantly.

I had hopes about Dust2 map at least but Eternal Fire performed even worse there and lost by 16-4. I think keeping imoRR in the main roster is a big mistake. They should replace him with xfl0ud as soon as possible to have a more reliable roster. He is a younger player and I believe he is much more talented. He is a much better team player also. imoRR is just hurting this team by simple individual mistakes. XANTARES said that he was their entry fragger but it looks like imoRR got this really wrong. Grin

tomahawk9

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Quote from: Trofo on September 23, 2022, 06:23:22 AM

By far my most profitable sport in 2022. Now I can loose most of it on glorified football friendly matches tonight. Remembered this post of yours and went to find it so I can brag a bit.

lol
yeah i know you're killing it in Dota alright Wink

You better post some of your pre-match picks during The International, i wanna make some bank too Grin

Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

I might bet on Hokori against Boom tomorrow though

is it worth it? i mean, do you see the teams taking this tourney seriously? or is it full of meme drafts and dodgy strats? i'm getting sick and tired of tier 3 csgo in the esl Pro League (at least in group stage) and i kinda wanna place some dota tickets again

Trofo

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Quote from: arallmuus on September 23, 2022, 12:59:46 PM

Im glad that I actually avoided this tournament. I would have gone for Boom Esports to win with a high stakes but it looks like they are trying bit of the new stuff before TI so glad that I didnt bet on them. The odds were actually decent as well for them to win @1.35 or something considering that they are way ahead of the other teams on SEA region, I'd say its kinda decent

I might bet on Hokori against Boom tomorrow though

I would consider 1.35 good odds if they were playing BO3, but this was BO2 and 1.35 for 2:0 is not fair to their oponnets at all. It is not like TNC does not know how to play DOTA. When I see odds like they gave for TNC +1.5 around 4, I have to take them. That is what I did today for max stake they allowed. It has been long time since I was limited on some game I wanted to play at Sportsbet, but max for this one was 4 mBTC. Had 5 mBTC free bet from insurance and couldn't place it otherwise it would be on that game as well, as it stands I lost on tennis

Here is another multi with rest of the stake, did not want to share it earlier cause tennis was still live and was afraid to jinx it

arallmuus

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Quote from: Trofo on September 23, 2022, 06:23:22 AM

Give me DOTA every day and I will be a rich man. Was loosing tickets left and right and finally some DOTA today.

Im glad that I actually avoided this tournament. I would have gone for Boom Esports to win with a high stakes but it looks like they are trying bit of the new stuff before TI so glad that I didnt bet on them. The odds were actually decent as well for them to win @1.35 or something considering that they are way ahead of the other teams on SEA region, I'd say its kinda decent

I might bet on Hokori against Boom tomorrow though

dothebeats

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Group A on Dota 2 TI Last Chance Qualifiers seem to be chill for Secret, with nouns and VG being the only real threat to the European team. Polaris can slither their way through the qualifiers if they manage to get through nouns on their first match, though that is highly unlikely given how tight nouns played in the NA qualifiers against Soniqs even though they were 3-0'd by the said team. It's anyone's game at this point, although my top picks for each group is obviously Secret for group A, and T1 for group B, with VP/Outsiders being a close second.

Pulsar77

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Eternal Fire are having another nightmare now.

I thought that they would at least defeat Evil Geniuses. Because they are technically the worst team in the group and they haven't played in tournaments for a long time before coming here. The series is still on of course as Evil Geniuses are 1-0 ahead now. But Eternal Fire's performance on Overpass was quite bad. They had a big struggle about defending especially bombsite B. At one point their morale started to drop down also. Their aiming and strategies both got worse.

Now we are on Dust2 which Eternal Fire picked. However things are going on badly here also. Evil Geniuses are 8-1 ahead now and they are playing as CT. I know that this map is more like CT sided but if Eternal Fire give them more than 8 rounds then I don't think they can manage to make a comeback. They don't seem to have that psychology to make this happen. I think this map will end even worse for Eternal Fire after the 16-9 defeat on Overpass. They are getting near saying goodbye to the ESL Pro League already. Sad

ralle14

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Quote from: jakelyson on September 22, 2022, 03:29:23 PM

PGL released the schedule and format of the TI Last Chance qualifier.

That group B looks so stacked compared to group A but it's interesting that no one gets eliminated in the first phase of the qualifiers compared to the usual major groups where the last place teams in the standings are eliminated.

Quote from: dunfida on September 22, 2022, 05:49:23 PM

Im expecting VG and Secret would get that 2 slot for TI and this qualifier would really be hot and exciting considering that this is the last chance for them to get in and participate the internationals.

Team Secret might have a chance but I feel like VG's chances to qualify are low if they can't avoid Xtreme Gaming in the playoffs. If I were to pick two teams that would qualify for TI it'd be Xtreme Gaming and probably a toss-up between Outsiders, Team Secret, and Polaris.

Topic: Esports Prediction & Discussion Thread - page 194. (Read 77299 times)