Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013 - page 2.

unbalanced

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Quote

I have the 25th unit and it didn't ship.

Still nothing in the mail from HashFast, DeathAndTaxes? I see they tweeted a pretty picture but no further talk of shipping since New Year's Eve.

Does anyone here have (or can any of you point me at) updated projections for Jan or Q1 for overall ASIC shipments?

Or any news from Cointerra? Is there a new thread and I've just missed it?

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: World on January 01, 2014, 04:26:13 PM

Quote from: jamesc760 on January 01, 2014, 02:32:32 PM

Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.

HF start shipping 31.12/13 https://twitter.com/HashFast

I have the 25th unit and it didn't ship. So HashFast "shipped" a token number of units (potentially as little as 1 BabyJet & 1 Sierra) to say they are "shipping". My guess is they didn't even ship 3 units but I know for a fact at the absolute most they only shipped units prior to mine which would be a staggering 24 units or ~10 TH/s. For all practical intents and purposes they haven't shipped anything.

World

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Quote from: jamesc760 on January 01, 2014, 02:32:32 PM

Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.

HF start shipping 31.12/13 https://twitter.com/HashFast

Cablez

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I owe my soul to the Bitcoin code...

November Jupiters as well.

ImI

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unexpected hash

darcimer

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Well, somebody is shipping.. I hope it's HF, otherwise, it's unexpected hash, now over 11Phs

jamesc760

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Hashfast still isn't shipping, their last statement on 12/31/2013 stated certain last minute production problems and suspended shipping.

Dexter770221

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So, predictions were quite accurate. If Hashfast wasn't late 2 weeks, hashrate certainly would be close to 13PH. It's 10PH now, at the begining of the year it was ~22TH. It's 454 times more. 1EH at the end of the year possible? I don't think so... What about you guys?

de_ixie

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on December 27, 2013, 01:41:27 PM

I don't have the time to maintain this. I am very busy through the end of the year. Still the original goal was served. It gave us a ballpark through the end of the year and when people were making insane predictions (<2 PH/s in Dec or >100 PH/s by Dec) it got us within shooting distance of reality.

Honestly it probably makes sense to start a new thread for Q1-2014, link to this and use it a template for projecting pre-orders over the next 3-6 months. Going beyond that is really just rolling dice.

I will do it - dont bite me Wink

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/total-hashrate-forecast-q1-q2-2014-community-work-387533

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

I don't have the time to maintain this. I am very busy through the end of the year. Still the original goal was served. It gave us a ballpark through the end of the year and when people were making insane predictions (<2 PH/s in Dec or >100 PH/s by Dec) it got us within shooting distance of reality.

Honestly it probably makes sense to start a new thread for Q1-2014, link to this and use it a template for projecting pre-orders over the next 3-6 months. Going beyond that is really just rolling dice.

darcimer

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Any chance someone has time to update this thread?

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: Epoch on December 15, 2013, 12:15:51 AM

Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on December 14, 2013, 06:14:26 PM

Quote from: World on December 14, 2013, 05:51:47 PM

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Well if I am reading that right it is at least 3.6 PH/s. 1,200 *3 TH/s. KNC also has been pretty conservative with their estimates so I think it could easily be 4 PH/s or more.

It's actually double that.

1200 units @ $10k for prior customers (sold out) and 1200 units @ $13k for the general public (also sold out). That's where the $28 million dollar number comes from.

That's 2400 units *3 TH/s which is at least 7.2 PH/s and could easily be 8 PH/s or more. I don't believe your OP includes these Neptunes yet.

Yes you are right. And no the OP # don't include these (and many other 2014 runs). The original purpose was to estimate year end difficulty. When I get some I time I will try to update it for 2014. Many of the existing pre-order runs have been completed in full so we can look at current difficulty + undelivered future orders going forward.

Epoch

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Quote from: DeathAndTaxes on December 14, 2013, 06:14:26 PM

Quote from: World on December 14, 2013, 05:51:47 PM

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Well if I am reading that right it is at least 3.6 PH/s. 1,200 *3 TH/s. KNC also has been pretty conservative with their estimates so I think it could easily be 4 PH/s or more.

It's actually double that.

1200 units @ $10k for prior customers (sold out) and 1200 units @ $13k for the general public (also sold out). That's where the $28 million dollar number comes from.

That's 2400 units *3 TH/s which is at least 7.2 PH/s and could easily be 8 PH/s or more. I don't believe your OP includes these Neptunes yet.

DeathAndTaxes

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Gerald Davis

Quote from: World on December 14, 2013, 05:51:47 PM

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Well if I am reading that right it is at least 3.6 PH/s. 1,200 *3 TH/s. KNC also has been pretty conservative with their estimates so I think it could easily be 4 PH/s or more.

Remember remember the 5th of November

legendary

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Reverse engineer from time to time

Quote from: World on December 14, 2013, 05:51:47 PM

Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

For somebody offering products that cost thousands of dollars, they need to spend a little bit more time learning how to type.

World

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Some new numbers from KnCMiner
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-72
http://newsbtc.com/2013/12/14/kncminer-sold-28-million-worth-neptune-bitcoin-miners/

Dabs

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The Concierge of Crypto

Actually, I'm seriously thinking of doing alt coins. Then just trade them for BTC.

Clayce

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Quote from: Dabs on December 13, 2013, 11:59:39 AM

Black Arrow also sold out their Feb batch, also on April now.

That's it, I can't buy anything since it seems like difficulty is going to exceed 5 billion by then.

I think BA reopened its Feb batch. I just purchased another X-3 tonight and it said 2/24 shipping, so hope its right..

dspiel

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you might want to consider doing a group buy on someone's whose expecting shipment of hardware and just hold off on doing a larger investment on purchases until the NEXT NEXT gen of hardware is coming.

Dabs

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The Concierge of Crypto

Black Arrow also sold out their Feb batch, also on April now.

That's it, I can't buy anything since it seems like difficulty is going to exceed 5 billion by then.

Topic: Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013 - page 2. (Read 30648 times)