Topic: Estimate of ASIC pre-orders: 13 to 15 PH/s (diff 1.8B to 2.1B) by end of 2013 - page 3. (Read 30736 times)
December 13, 2013, 06:31:45 AM
Cointerra sold out their March batch, and is now on April 2014. You should add these to the list.
December 11, 2013, 11:33:39 AM
Avalon2 chips from official Chinese supplier http://item.taobao.com/item.htm?spm=a1z10.1.w6461276-4508018524.1.ebCzQZ&id=18754154224 : 66295 sold in the last 30 days
December 11, 2013, 03:18:15 AM
Well it looks like Cointerra will miss. Hashfast is unknown. Not sure how much of KNC Nov run is left but I would guess it is mostly complete. My guestimate was ~2 PH/s and we saw a nice bump from 5 PH/s to > 7 PH/s between 5 DEC and today. My assumption is most of that is KNC "Nov run". If Hashfast misses we probably are going to come in under 1.8 PH by end of year.
Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle. I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.
I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely. Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess. January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February. If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely. If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple. Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle. I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.
I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely. Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess. January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February. If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely. If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple. Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
With those difficulty estimates, what would you say 1TH could mine (per month), by say April-May? If you estimate the diff @ 4billion by April, that should be alittle over 3btc per month. How far off do you think this is??
December 11, 2013, 03:12:21 AM
Okay. Thanks. That's sort of re-assuring. Wouldn't want to buy any of these miners if difficulty goes beyond 5 billion.
December 11, 2013, 01:24:04 AM
Well it looks like Cointerra will miss. Hashfast is unknown. Not sure how much of KNC Nov run is left but I would guess it is mostly complete. My guestimate was ~2 PH/s and we saw a nice bump from 5 PH/s to > 7 PH/s between 5 DEC and today. My assumption is most of that is KNC "Nov run". If Hashfast misses we probably are going to come in under 1.8 PH by end of year.
Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle. I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.
I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely. Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess. January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February. If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely. If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple. Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
Nobody else appears to be shipping in the volume necessary to move the needle. I mean at 7 PH/s even dropping a PH/s on the network is barely a 15% increase in diff and that would need to be a pretty fast rollout to happen in one adjustment.
I think 1.4 to 1.8 billion difficulty by end of year is more likely. Beyond that into 2014 it becomes harder to guess. January & February is likely going to be brutal between HashFast (batch 1, 2, MPP and upgrades), Cointerra (batch 1 & 2), plus the maybe BFL Monarch near the end of February. If BFL misses I think difficulty doubling is likely. If BFL ships in volume it probably will be more like triple. Beyond that I think the adjustments are going to slow down but really going more than 2 months out is just a guess anyways.
December 10, 2013, 10:56:13 PM
What's the summary?
2.1B difficulty by end of December 31, 2013?
3B by end of January 31, 2014?
4B by end of February 28, 2014?
35 PH/s = 5 B difficulty?
2.1B difficulty by end of December 31, 2013?
3B by end of January 31, 2014?
4B by end of February 28, 2014?
35 PH/s = 5 B difficulty?
December 08, 2013, 11:52:50 AM
I've input all those numbers into my diff estimation spreadsheet to reflect shipping dates of various manufacturers, see https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqGoWjATRQK6dE1yTHpydkIwajhhUGF4ZGxFV2FDSVE&usp=sharing
Those estimates are intended to be copy pasted into http://coinplorer.com/Hardware/Simulate (choose "manual difficulty extrapolation") for revenues estimates.
The spreadsheet is intended to be a base on which you can add/correct your own estimates. I already know that you won't agree with some points, but I had to make decisions
Improvements I could made in the spreadsheet or the estimates are more than welcome
Those estimates are intended to be copy pasted into http://coinplorer.com/Hardware/Simulate (choose "manual difficulty extrapolation") for revenues estimates.
The spreadsheet is intended to be a base on which you can add/correct your own estimates. I already know that you won't agree with some points, but I had to make decisions
Improvements I could made in the spreadsheet or the estimates are more than welcome
November 14, 2013, 03:35:03 AM
User "Hank" wrote an excellent piece on difficulty speculation
http://forum.cointerra.com/threads/difficulty-speculation.44/
http://forum.cointerra.com/threads/difficulty-speculation.44/
Hank missed a crucial little detail: DnT's list is anything but exhaustive and "??" does not equal zero.
For instance I dont know how many Monarchs BFL is going to ship, but I do know it will very much be a non zero number. There are also no known numbers (and no estimates) for KnC post November, or hashfast post december, Cointerra post January, but somehow I doubt all these companies will close shop and retire. Particularly for next year, the list should be considered a minimum minimorum, its basically what we know but for the most part it doesnt contain estimates for "known unknowns", let alone unkown unknowns (think 28nm Bitfury chips or similar surprises).
edit: as illustration of my point, here is another "surprise":
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/announcement-bitmain-launches-antminer-solution-068-jgh-on-chip-330665
No word yet of what volume they could achieve, but it looks fairly legit and specs are on par with Bitfury.
November 13, 2013, 08:07:15 PM
User "Hank" wrote an excellent piece on difficulty speculation
http://forum.cointerra.com/threads/difficulty-speculation.44/
http://forum.cointerra.com/threads/difficulty-speculation.44/
November 10, 2013, 03:00:43 AM
Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like thisSaturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.
with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.
I agree with you, about their sales numbers
November 10, 2013, 01:58:37 AM
I have no idea of how many 1.5T machines they shipped.
None. BFL never shipped a 1.5 TH/s machine.
November 08, 2013, 03:21:52 PM
The thread is about orders not shipments. Still you listed <2 PH/s and the network is ~4 PH/s you and you said it doesn't add up?
the network is ~3.7. We'll see if when they start shipping if the network rises accordingly to the announced orders. If it does the network hash rate should rise at least to the numbers stated by OPUnless the OP is wrong. There is no announced orders. The title contains the word "estimate" for a reason.
November 08, 2013, 02:55:28 PM
The thread is about orders not shipments. Still you listed <2 PH/s and the network is ~4 PH/s you and you said it doesn't add up?
the network is ~3.7. We'll see if when they start shipping if the network rises accordingly to the announced orders. If it does the network hash rate should rise at least to the numbers stated by OP November 08, 2013, 02:46:01 PM
The thread is about orders not shipments. Still you listed <2 PH/s and the network is ~4 PH/s you and you said it doesn't add up?
For the record no company has every in black and white stated how much they shipped. Ever. The are very opaque about that and if anything they have a huge incentive to lie to the downside. Say a company said "yup we are shipping 1 PH/s per week and have orders booked for the 20-30 weeks" (it doesn't matter if they are lying or telling the truth) do you think that would make it easier or harder to sell more rigs?
For the record no company has every in black and white stated how much they shipped. Ever. The are very opaque about that and if anything they have a huge incentive to lie to the downside. Say a company said "yup we are shipping 1 PH/s per week and have orders booked for the 20-30 weeks" (it doesn't matter if they are lying or telling the truth) do you think that would make it easier or harder to sell more rigs?
November 08, 2013, 02:38:10 PM
Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like thisSaturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.
with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.
Um you didn't notice the 2.5 PH/s rise in difficulty over the last month which just happens to coincide with KNC Sep/Oct order shipments?
preorder =/= already mining. If it was then difficulty would be 15 PH/s right now and there would be no need for this thread you could just look at a hashrate chart.
KNC Nov batch won't be shipping until Nov 15th.
HashFast batch1 won't be shipping until mid Dec.
Obviously hashrate shipping in the future can't already have affected the hashrate right?
not a BFL defender, but as they caught up with their 1.5T machines shipments the diff raised during that same time. Coincidence? Don't know, I have no idea of how many 1.5T machines they shipped. Avalon was supposed to have shipped ~1000 Ts, BFL is unknown. Asicminer probably around 100 Ts. Sorry, but it doesn't add up on my book, I suspect these companies are lying on their actual shipped ASICs. Just in my honest opinion.
November 08, 2013, 02:31:05 PM
with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.
KnC hasnt been shipping for 2 weeks and will only resume next week I believe
HF isnt shipping anything yet and wont until december
CT isnt shipping anything yet and wont until december or january
Actm isnt shipping yet and wont until december or january
Bitmine isnt shipping yet and wont until december or january
Black arrow isnt shipping yet and wont until February
BFL Monarch isnt shipping yet and, well, who knows really.
You get the idea.
The only thing thats still shipping right now (allegedly) is 65nm BFL miners, but they dont have much bite anymore, and perhaps some bitfury boards and USB miners.
November 08, 2013, 02:29:09 PM
Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like thisSaturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.
with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.
Um you didn't notice the 2.5 PH/s rise in difficulty over the last month which just happens to coincide with KNC Sep/Oct order shipments?
preorder =/= already mining. If it was then difficulty would be 15 PH/s right now and there would be no need for this thread you could just look at a hashrate chart.
KNC Nov batch won't be shipping until Nov 15th.
HashFast batch1 won't be shipping until mid Dec.
etc.
Obviously hashrate shipping in the future can't already have affected the hashrate right?
November 08, 2013, 02:26:50 PM
Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like thisSaturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.
with so many sales and pre-orders announced shouldn't the diff be much higher by now? Something is not adding up. As BFL was shipping the 1.5T machines the diff went like nuts, but I suspect all of these companies are not forthcoming with their sales, in fact I suspect they are lying on the sales numbers. Or that or the machines are breaking after a few days/weeks of mining.
November 08, 2013, 02:02:45 PM
Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like thisSaturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
They sold out of Saturns and have <200 Jupiters compared to >2,000 two weeks ago.
November 08, 2013, 01:33:18 PM
Update on November orders from KnC:
Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
I tottaly agree with you but i dont think that they will sell the rest of them now with dofficulty like this Saturns sold out
Jupiters very close to sold out, 46 left right now
guess we'll see another 2,5PH/s added during November..
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