Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong - page 2.

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Quote from: Stepstowealth on October 11, 2023, 12:41:40 PM

Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

A big teaching on not trusting too much without verifying for yourself or having your own conviction. There are some very highly spiritual people who may think that by spiritual methods, they may also be able to predict correctly the value of bitcoins. Just like the seasoned analysts, spiritualists can also get the price of bitcoins wrong, so it will be bad to base your plans on the price prediction of someone. Bitcoin value is very unpredictable and it will be so even to Satoshi.

Investors should analyze themselves when they buy Bitcoin and not depend on other people. It is their money and they are the ones who will keep their Bitcoins so they have to find the time to buy Bitcoins.

The analysts could be wrong in their analysis. And if someone follows his words to buy Bitcoin at that price and turns out to be wrong, that person should not blame the analyst because it is their own fault.

It is better for you to analyze Bitcoin movements and know when you buy Bitcoin rather than wait for other people's signals. Apart from that, at times like this, there will be a lot of misleading information that will confuse people. So be careful.

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Re: Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong

Seasoned analysts, so-called analysts, expert traders, expert analysts, newbie analysts, people who think that they're analysts, TA experts, whatever type of analyst they are, they have one thing in common.
Yes they are been addressed as analysts, but they can't predict the future still.

What they're doing is speculating the market. If this happen, that will happen blah blah blah. That's the main point of their analysis. If Bitcoin's price reach X price, it might start a bull market. They are using the words "might" so that they say to the public that what they are saying is just a prediction, and don't follow them. Don't rely too much on their prediction because we average persons can also predict as well. We can do what they can do. The only difference is that, we aren't analysts at all while they are... so-called analysts.

Analysts are humans, and humans make mistakes. In the end, it's up to the investor if they will make a decision base on their prediction or not.

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Quote from: carlfebz2 on October 10, 2023, 01:27:22 PM

Dealing up with the price in active manner would really be that requiring that sufficient skill and experience which we do know that not all would really be having that kind of chance on getting that kind of skill in short time and this is why only a few would really be taking up that path on trying out to deal with the market on active matter. Doesnt mind much whether they would be applying out DCA on aggressive approach or not as long it would really be getting inside the line or path on about your plans then this is what matter the most. Analyst? So called experts or professionals? Yes, they do have those relevant approach and analysis but
it doesnt mean that it would really be that 100% reliable for someone to follow.

This is why you should really be that careful on trying you to follow these people because we are just all speculators on this market and there's no man or trader would really be having that kind of
success rate when it comes to their perceptions and views towards this market or a specific project or coin on which it isnt really just that right that you would really be making yourself
that too reliant or really that keeps making yourself that following on whatever things that they would really be that into.

Many people become speculators who only tell stories of big wins but in reality no success has ever been achieved. I am more careful about who I follow, who I look up to because many are just paid to speculate.
Don't depend on other people, because it doesn't necessarily mean that what you follow will be suitable. I always emphasize myself to be independent in everything but occasionally also listen to advice from other people if the advice is right.

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

This simply shows that even veterans and seasoned analyst with their accumulated market experience cannot predict the future price of Bitcoin. It is not because of unpredictable Bitcoin market volatility but because they are just human who has no power to see the future. Imagine if an investor shorts his trade to buy at lower price because he believe on the prediction of Cowen that price will go down to $23k at the end of September, this person could have been in a loss.

There will be many predictions that appear every day on Bitcoin and this is something that often happens. Apart from humans having limited ability to see the future, there are times when price fluctuations can also make their predictions shift from reality. If many people could predict the price of bitcoin in the long term, perhaps many billionaires would buy large amounts of bitcoin and perhaps the current availability of traded bitcoin is very small because it is influenced by them.

Predictions can only be carried out in general terms and not specifically. I mean people can see the good potential of bitcoin in the long term, but they can't predict the price for sure. That's the reason why people have a great desire to invest in bitcoin because they have the skills to see long-term potential, not to look at specific prices?

Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

No one can predict and predict prices accurately because they talk about the level of price fluctuations. Trusting any investor if a separate study is not carried out does not provide any results, everyone would be much better off relying on their own analysis and instincts to determine something because there will be different levels of satisfaction.

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We're in the region of 23k so I dont see its especially notable that he didnt hit the target precisely. Anywhere close is ok enough with a volatile asset like BTC imo, the price tends to be elastic and recover some of its prior movements. A price moving in only one direction is more volatile then the more normal behavior of repeating and range based movements.
We didnt break down to the 23k price point because of very likely support found at 25k. More of a small wall then a speed bump, we have to really want to go in that direction to keep pushing downwards when we meet support. In his analysis he should state why that support will be negated to most convincing.
The wider market itself is trying to find some balance in adjustment to rate rises vs economic news which has not been as negative it could have been; just noting this would be enough to be less bearish I think

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Quote from: Stepstowealth on October 11, 2023, 12:41:40 PM

Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

A big teaching on not trusting too much without verifying for yourself or having your own conviction. There are some very highly spiritual people who may think that by spiritual methods, they may also be able to predict correctly the value of bitcoins. Just like the seasoned analysts, spiritualists can also get the price of bitcoins wrong, so it will be bad to base your plans on the price prediction of someone. Bitcoin value is very unpredictable and it will be so even to Satoshi.

There is no harm in knowing the seasoned analyst prediction, the information underlying on those predictions and getting more predictions from different people, comparing and verifying them. It is actually a good habit of collecting predictions and studying them to come up with a better understanding of the possible future trend of the Bitcoin market.

The thing is here is, don't just a blind follower but rather use these predictions of popular people after verifying them as part of the reference of our own understanding of the market movement.

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

A big teaching on not trusting too much without verifying for yourself or having your own conviction. There are some very highly spiritual people who may think that by spiritual methods, they may also be able to predict correctly the value of bitcoins. Just like the seasoned analysts, spiritualists can also get the price of bitcoins wrong, so it will be bad to base your plans on the price prediction of someone. Bitcoin value is very unpredictable and it will be so even to Satoshi.

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Predictions are only conclusions from calculations or analysis carried out, and the results can be called price speculation based on bitcoin chart movements in the market.

No one can really predict the future accurately, especially if the time specified is far away, even if it is true, according to what he said it is just luck.

Just like a trader who says that tomorrow will be green, may be right when his calculations match the sentiment and analysis he made, but he doesn't really know what percentage the increase will be. IMO

And mistakes are normal, therefore never rely on the results of other people's analysis, because the risk is your own in investing, prioritizing DYOR.

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Quote from: AakZaki on October 10, 2023, 11:32:33 AM

Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

The 2023 crypto market does look confusing and a lot of wild speculation is starting to emerge with unreasonable price predictions. Those who think they understand crypto and are professional traders provide speculation without good data accuracy so that this becomes trash news which in the end is just nonsense. Relying on nonsense from other people is not very good, it is better to do independent analysis and it will be better and make us learn and grow. Your trading desk is yours and you have the right to manage everything.

Of course - analysis done by ourselves should be better in maintaining psychology in the long run. At least we have tried to do our best - but investments should be much simpler if they just buy and hold. Even if they don't do any analysis and just use this year as an accumulation goal - then in my opinion they will also get a worth it return for their long-term investment.

In fact, day trading or trading with shorter time frames requires them to carry out analysis as often as possible. Long term investing is not like that - just buy the dips and hold for the long term. It would be better if they also utilized the DCA strategy.

Dealing up with the price in active manner would really be that requiring that sufficient skill and experience which we do know that not all would really be having that kind of chance on getting that kind of skill in short time and this is why only a few would really be taking up that path on trying out to deal with the market on active matter. Doesnt mind much whether they would be applying out DCA on aggressive approach or not as long it would really be getting inside the line or path on about your plans then this is what matter the most. Analyst? So called experts or professionals? Yes, they do have those relevant approach and analysis but
it doesnt mean that it would really be that 100% reliable for someone to follow.

This is why you should really be that careful on trying you to follow these people because we are just all speculators on this market and there's no man or trader would really be having that kind of
success rate when it comes to their perceptions and views towards this market or a specific project or coin on which it isnt really just that right that you would really be making yourself
that too reliant or really that keeps making yourself that following on whatever things that they would really be that into.

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Quote from: AakZaki on October 10, 2023, 11:32:33 AM

Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

-snip-

Day trading or trading with a faster time frame requires more frequent chart reading and analysis and must always monitor the market. It would be a very risky trade and required to be fast. Carrying out DCA on the right assets and for the long term can provide greater returns. The main suggestion is Bitcoin for the long term, or you can choose the altcoin ETH as an alternative.

First - I hope you can review your quote and correct it because you misquoted me.

I am just convinced myself to continue holding a higher amount of bitcoin than altcoin in my investment portfolio. Let's be honest - I'm diversifying and Ethereum is definitely there for me as a long-term investment instead of bitcoin. I've avoided day trading - but that doesn't mean I hate it, but I avoid it because I don't have much time to deal with a monitor every time my trade is opened.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

Of course - analysis done by ourselves should be better in maintaining psychology in the long run. At least we have tried to do our best - but investments should be much simpler if they just buy and hold. Even if they don't do any analysis and just use this year as an accumulation goal - then in my opinion they will also get a worth it return for their long-term investment.

In fact, day trading or trading with shorter time frames requires them to carry out analysis as often as possible. Long term investing is not like that - just buy the dips and hold for the long term. It would be better if they also utilized the DCA strategy.

Day trading or trading with a faster time frame requires more frequent chart reading and analysis and must always monitor the market. It would be a very risky trade and required to be fast. Carrying out DCA on the right assets and for the long term can provide greater returns. The main suggestion is Bitcoin for the long term, or you can choose the altcoin ETH as an alternative.

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It is not a shocking thing, the market is not a known thing and should not be considered as a shocking thing in the end. We need to realize that it is going to take a while before we could do something about it. The thing is that there are way too many people who think that there is a secret way of finding out what the price will be, but there is none at all.

The greatest thing about this is that it gives you a chance to be right when an expect is wrong, that is a feeling you can't find anywhere else because you can't just go play basketball and beat Michael Jordan, or play football with Ronaldo and beat him. This however is a place where you can actually be better than the best if you hit it right and they do not guess right.

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I do emphasise on this bitcoin predictions and speculation of bitcoin, its very obvious that bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that no one can predict the price accurately but some do depends on the predictions of people, so what I want to say so far is that Bitcoin predictions is base on assumption and also a personal understanding of the movement of the chart and candle sticks of bitcoin, what I really want us to understand in bitcoin is that nobody is perfect because the demands of bitcoin can change direction at any point in time due to you don't know who is in the market to pump the price of bitcoin.

I don't basically belive or keep trust on certain predictions of bitcoin, it predicted wrongly now, that doesn't mean that it doesn't know what is doing in bitcoin analysis but a slight mistake make a predictor to have a negative interpretation of bitcoin price, so that is while I do encourage people to make your own research and analysis first and compare to others before you conclude of bitcoin price through someone predictions.

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Quote from: Nrcewker on October 09, 2023, 08:45:34 AM

Quote from: uswa56 on October 09, 2023, 05:15:17 AM

I think both of these things have a risk of harm in doing them if we don't understand them well. You are right that trading requires us to monitor it frequently and we must be able to analyze it correctly to be able to gain profits from the trades we make. Carrying out analysis will be very difficult for us if we don't understand it well and I also did what you did to get a profit.

When there is investment, there is always a risk associated with it. What we can do is just analyse the risk and try to minimise it, while maximising the profit. Similarly if we see OP’s concern, then we can really see that yes analysing the movement is really a difficult task. Analysis are just predictions based on calculations, hence it doesn’t guarantee that the movement will go in a desired path.

Probably one of the most important characteristics that a trader must have is to be adaptable, very often this is not thought to be a critical skill but it is, a trader can make a prediction based on the current movements of the market and still get their prediction completely wrong, however if they simply decide that at some point the markets will take a turn and hold onto their previous analysis then this could generate them some serious losses, especially since the easiest thing in the world is to admit that the market moved in a way you did not expect it and that you were wrong.

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Quote from: serjent05 on October 08, 2023, 04:57:10 PM

Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

-snip-

I highly agree! When it comes to the Bitcoin market, if a person wants to profit without any frustration and headache of calculating the future price with tools and calculation used for technical analysis, a simple holding and patience is the key.

Of course - there are many advantages to investing over trading. I tend to recommend people invest instead of trade for one reason; Trading is too risky for those who fail to have good control and management of their emotions. Price volatility is very unpredictable - so that's why investments tend to be safer for them who do not have good abilities in managing their emotions.

Quote from: serjent05 on October 08, 2023, 04:57:10 PM

Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

-snip-

Day trading is very risky sometimes.

Exactly - I admit it.

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Quote from: taufik123 on October 07, 2023, 02:46:03 PM

his prediction was correct and Bitcoin reached its highest price at $15k in December 2017.

The price actually reached about $20 000 at the end of December 2017, I don't know where you got that information from.

Quote from: taufik123 on October 07, 2023, 02:46:03 PM

Then the $250k prediction will occur in June 2023 to be precise, but Bitcoin in June was only $3k, but in 2021 it hit $66k.

The prediction did fail, but slowly it will indeed be achieved when we see how the positive trend continues to increase and coupled with the 4th Halving moment next year.

I guess you meant June 2018 or maybe 2019, and certainly not 2023, which was only recently. His speculation has so far failed completely, but he himself admits in one article that he said what he said only because others put pressure on him after he was successful the first time. Although I remember he threw quite a party when he announced it, but he certainly won't be happy if he missed the mark completely this time.

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Quote from: uswa56 on October 09, 2023, 05:15:17 AM

Quote from: JeffBrad12 on October 08, 2023, 05:47:23 PM

day trading needs more expertise than just investing.
it requires constant analysation otherwise it will results in loss and bankruptcy as you said. thats why many nowadays prefer investing, doesn't mean other people can't pull off day trading and get rich out of it.
it just simply only recommended for those veteran that knows well how to make analysis since its really all about making constant analysis with consistent result.
i personally find it rather exhausting while also my analysis something gets wrong. after all sometime the market is just moving so randomly.

I think both of these things have a risk of harm in doing them if we don't understand them well. You are right that trading requires us to monitor it frequently and we must be able to analyze it correctly to be able to gain profits from the trades we make. Carrying out analysis will be very difficult for us if we don't understand it well and I also did what you did to get a profit.

When there is investment, there is always a risk associated with it. What we can do is just analyse the risk and try to minimise it, while maximising the profit. Similarly if we see OP’s concern, then we can really see that yes analysing the movement is really a difficult task. Analysis are just predictions based on calculations, hence it doesn’t guarantee that the movement will go in a desired path.

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Quote from: JeffBrad12 on October 08, 2023, 05:47:23 PM

day trading needs more expertise than just investing.
it requires constant analysation otherwise it will results in loss and bankruptcy as you said. thats why many nowadays prefer investing, doesn't mean other people can't pull off day trading and get rich out of it.
it just simply only recommended for those veteran that knows well how to make analysis since its really all about making constant analysis with consistent result.
i personally find it rather exhausting while also my analysis something gets wrong. after all sometime the market is just moving so randomly.

I think both of these things have a risk of harm in doing them if we don't understand them well. You are right that trading requires us to monitor it frequently and we must be able to analyze it correctly to be able to gain profits from the trades we make. Carrying out analysis will be very difficult for us if we don't understand it well and I also did what you did to get a profit.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

Quote from: AakZaki on October 08, 2023, 11:57:34 AM

Quote from: YOSHIE on October 07, 2023, 09:03:16 AM

-snip-

The 2023 crypto market does look confusing and a lot of wild speculation is starting to emerge with unreasonable price predictions. Those who think they understand crypto and are professional traders provide speculation without good data accuracy so that this becomes trash news which in the end is just nonsense. Relying on nonsense from other people is not very good, it is better to do independent analysis and it will be better and make us learn and grow. Your trading desk is yours and you have the right to manage everything.

Of course - analysis done by ourselves should be better in maintaining psychology in the long run. At least we have tried to do our best - but investments should be much simpler if they just buy and hold. Even if they don't do any analysis and just use this year as an accumulation goal - then in my opinion they will also get a worth it return for their long-term investment.

In fact, day trading or trading with shorter time frames requires them to carry out analysis as often as possible. Long term investing is not like that - just buy the dips and hold for the long term. It would be better if they also utilized the DCA strategy.

day trading needs more expertise than just investing.
it requires constant analysation otherwise it will results in loss and bankruptcy as you said. thats why many nowadays prefer investing, doesn't mean other people can't pull off day trading and get rich out of it.
it just simply only recommended for those veteran that knows well how to make analysis since its really all about making constant analysis with consistent result.
i personally find it rather exhausting while also my analysis something gets wrong. after all sometime the market is just moving so randomly.

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Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

Quote from: AakZaki on October 08, 2023, 11:57:34 AM

Quote from: YOSHIE on October 07, 2023, 09:03:16 AM

-snip-

The 2023 crypto market does look confusing and a lot of wild speculation is starting to emerge with unreasonable price predictions. Those who think they understand crypto and are professional traders provide speculation without good data accuracy so that this becomes trash news which in the end is just nonsense. Relying on nonsense from other people is not very good, it is better to do independent analysis and it will be better and make us learn and grow. Your trading desk is yours and you have the right to manage everything.

Of course - analysis done by ourselves should be better in maintaining psychology in the long run. At least we have tried to do our best - but investments should be much simpler if they just buy and hold. Even if they don't do any analysis and just use this year as an accumulation goal - then in my opinion they will also get a worth it return for their long-term investment.

I highly agree! When it comes to the Bitcoin market, if a person wants to profit without any frustration and headache of calculating the future price with tools and calculation used for technical analysis, a simple holding and patience is the key.

Quote from: _BlackStar on October 08, 2023, 01:57:13 PM

In fact, day trading or trading with shorter time frames requires them to carry out analysis as often as possible. Long term investing is not like that - just buy the dips and hold for the long term. It would be better if they also utilized the DCA strategy.

Day trading is very risky sometimes. There are times when we set a sell order in hopes of buying at a lower price then when the sell order is filled, the volatility of the market makes a joke on us by increasing the Bitcoin price making our plan of buying at a lower price failed.

Topic: Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong - page 2. (Read 731 times)