Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong - page 3.

_BlackStar

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Quote from: AakZaki on October 08, 2023, 11:57:34 AM

Quote from: YOSHIE on October 07, 2023, 09:03:16 AM

-snip-

The 2023 crypto market does look confusing and a lot of wild speculation is starting to emerge with unreasonable price predictions. Those who think they understand crypto and are professional traders provide speculation without good data accuracy so that this becomes trash news which in the end is just nonsense. Relying on nonsense from other people is not very good, it is better to do independent analysis and it will be better and make us learn and grow. Your trading desk is yours and you have the right to manage everything.

Of course - analysis done by ourselves should be better in maintaining psychology in the long run. At least we have tried to do our best - but investments should be much simpler if they just buy and hold. Even if they don't do any analysis and just use this year as an accumulation goal - then in my opinion they will also get a worth it return for their long-term investment.

In fact, day trading or trading with shorter time frames requires them to carry out analysis as often as possible. Long term investing is not like that - just buy the dips and hold for the long term. It would be better if they also utilized the DCA strategy.

Pierre 2

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I think bitcoin could go way below 23k even in that last september as many people I talked with had terrible ideas of dumping their bitcoins totally. Bitcoin is very hard to predict to be honest I mean you may claim it hitting 100k in next 5 years or something as it feels sure. But its basically impossible to guess what price we will see next month or next week or even next monday, tuesday. Many bitcoin traders generally use indicators and market sentiments to find their bitcoin price guesses but most of the time it does not work.

lixer

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Quote from: Lucius on October 04, 2023, 08:23:53 AM

Quote from: philipma1957 on October 02, 2023, 01:19:20 PM

~snip~
my guess is we are close to fall of of 2015 which means a sharp upstake of around 30% over the next 30 days.!

That would be a very nice jump to about $35k+ from the current price, so even though nothing is impossible when it comes to BTC, somehow it seems to me that without some super good news, something like that is not really realistic to expect. I remember 2015 and the price of BTC, which was just a little over $200 that year (at least for a good part of the year), and that 30% then and today is not even close to the same.

Given that we have been between $25k and $30k for a long time, every jump in price results in increased sales, considering that everyone is looking for any profit, and we saw that a few days ago when we crossed $28k and quickly went back.

News is only one factor that can affect the price. Other factors can still occur so we shouldn't lose our hope. Past is past as they say. Even though same past price can repeat sometimes, there will be a time where it doesn't. So, we shouldn't fully rely on patterns but we should also create different strategies or back-ups so that we can still be able to profit once the other fails. Price moves based on the demand and supply.

Obviously when the price rise, the sale also increases. Everyone who invest in BTC wants to earn a profit but not all are selling early. The price dump last time can be caused by other factors and not really because the majority is selling for profit.

AakZaki

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Quote from: YOSHIE on October 07, 2023, 09:03:16 AM

It seems that this time I'm on your side, I'm tired of seeing directionless and messy speculation & predictions in 2023, maybe there have been a lot of joke experts born in the crypto market, that's what's happened and what we've seen so far, I really don't rely on speculation & predictions anymore, I will be guided by myself, destruction or success, let me draw conclusions this time regarding crypto, especially Bitcoin.

I draw whatever conclusions and risks that occur, just let me bear it. The crypto market is currently difficult to speculate & predict, what was talked about didn't happen and what hasn't been talked about is what happened, let myself win the remote for myself.

The 2023 crypto market does look confusing and a lot of wild speculation is starting to emerge with unreasonable price predictions. Those who think they understand crypto and are professional traders provide speculation without good data accuracy so that this becomes trash news which in the end is just nonsense. Relying on nonsense from other people is not very good, it is better to do independent analysis and it will be better and make us learn and grow. Your trading desk is yours and you have the right to manage everything.

barisbilgili

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Quote from: BigBos on October 07, 2023, 08:11:09 AM

Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

It's true that we have to be careful about anyone's predictions, we need to make decisions according to what we understand. Regardless of whether it is true or not, in the end we will not blame anyone but only ourselves. Now I prefer to decide for myself when to buy and at what point to exit. Because as long as it is profitable then there is no problem. Most beginners want to instantly follow signal channels or instant predictions without thinking twice. The same thing for those who rely on price predictions from other people, whether they are skilled traders or big influencers, in the end there is no guarantee of being 100% on target.

There is nothing wrong with relying on other people's predictions about prices, but we have to understand them well if we want to follow what they say and if what they predict is wrong then we can't blame them because not everyone is right in making their predictions. For those who are just starting out and they follow instant predictions without thinking about anything, I think this is not very good because no one has yet correctly predicted the price, but it would be better for them to really understand it well so they don't regret the decision they made. You are right, deciding for yourself when to buy and sell will be very enjoyable if we make a profit and even if we experience a loss we must be able to overcome it.

taufik123

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Quote from: Lucius on October 06, 2023, 08:02:50 AM

Do you remember Tim Draper and his statement from 2014 that after 3 years the price of BTC will be at least $10 000, which of course happened, although everyone laughed at him then? Of course, we can say that the man is just lucky, especially his next speculation has not (yet) come true if we consider that the price is nowhere near $250 000 as he stated in 2018, although he later added that this price could be reach during 2023.

Taking into account the possible halving effects and the potential possibility that the first spot BTC ETF will be approved in the US at the beginning of next year, the next ATH could very easily reach between $150k and even more.

Tim Draper is a billionaire investor and venture capitalist who has been successful with his Bitcoin investments.
He was an early crypto supporter and witnessed the collapse of crypto exchanges in the Mt.Gox era then he decided to start investing in Bitcoin in 2014 after the Mt.Gox collapse, he bought 30k Bitcoin at that time and predicted the price of Bitcoin would reach $10k 3 years later in 2017.
his prediction was correct and Bitcoin reached its highest price at $15k in December 2017.

Then the $250k prediction will occur in June 2023 to be precise, but Bitcoin in June was only $3k, but in 2021 it hit $66k.

The prediction did fail, but slowly it will indeed be achieved when we see how the positive trend continues to increase and coupled with the 4th Halving moment next year.

$150k might be the price that will be reached easily and become the new ATH, less $100k song to reach that target.
He has stuck to the forecast even through the recent bear market, until now, and is buying gradually.

flyingcarpet

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

This simply shows that even veterans and seasoned analyst with their accumulated market experience cannot predict the future price of Bitcoin. It is not because of unpredictable Bitcoin market volatility but because they are just human who has no power to see the future. Imagine if an investor shorts his trade to buy at lower price because he believe on the prediction of Cowen that price will go down to $23k at the end of September, this person could have been in a loss.

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

I don't believe anyone has made an accurate prediction about the future price of Bitcoin. For example, no one can predict the war situation that started yesterday. In other words, price forecasters quote so many prices that after a while one of them turns out to be correct. Anything to say "I told you so."

There will be no end to those making predictions about the Bitcoin price in the market and a new one will be added every day. We will talk about those predictions, but in my opinion, no one can make an accurate prediction about the price. Because different things can happen in the world every day and Bitcoin can be affected by them.

KiaKia

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Let this be a lesson to all those that likes depending on prediction, if the name is called prediction how can someone depend on that? Isn't that under probability? Now in crypto space most predictions are nonsense, they almost always fail because crypto market is full of unexpected events and surprises, not reliable.

Predictions can always be inaccurate as they don't always take into account of all possible variables that can affect the outcome, in crypto space, predictions can be influenced by bias, most are just peoples opinions and assumptions which can lead to inaccurate or unreliable predictions.

Some crypto predictions are even all planned out, to deceive the masses and make them go the wrong way, this is a game of money making and only the strong survive in the Wild West, always take predictions with a grain of salt.

YOSHIE

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

It seems that this time I'm on your side, I'm tired of seeing directionless and messy speculation & predictions in 2023, maybe there have been a lot of joke experts born in the crypto market, that's what's happened and what we've seen so far, I really don't rely on speculation & predictions anymore, I will be guided by myself, destruction or success, let me draw conclusions this time regarding crypto, especially Bitcoin.

I draw whatever conclusions and risks that occur, just let me bear it. The crypto market is currently difficult to speculate & predict, what was talked about didn't happen and what hasn't been talked about is what happened, let myself win the remote for myself.

BigBos

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

It's true that we have to be careful about anyone's predictions, we need to make decisions according to what we understand. Regardless of whether it is true or not, in the end we will not blame anyone but only ourselves. Now I prefer to decide for myself when to buy and at what point to exit. Because as long as it is profitable then there is no problem. Most beginners want to instantly follow signal channels or instant predictions without thinking twice. The same thing for those who rely on price predictions from other people, whether they are skilled traders or big influencers, in the end there is no guarantee of being 100% on target.

Odohu

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Quote from: gunhell16 on October 06, 2023, 06:42:38 PM

It is up to us whether or not we believe any predictions made by other traders in this crypto area in the trading company, but you must also have a solid reason for doing so. Let's keep in mind that even if we believe that traders are specialists, they still have shortcomings. There are no ideal traders.

We make predictions because we project where we believe the value of the assets we trade will go in terms of price. Through YouTube and other channels, many people continue to claim to be trading gurus. Don't believe it if you are certain it is false or dubious. The individual in the article provided by the OP has no reason to believe the confessor.

I have lost count of how many times the supposed experts failed in their prediction. I do not hold it against them neither am I surprised because they are humans and never perfect. Besides, they use data, that changes with time, to do their analysis. Personally, I pay less attention to those predictions as my approach to Bitcoin is on a long term perspective. So even if their prediction happens and Bitcoin hits record high, I will never liquidate my entire assets.... I will always own Bitcoin and also pass it on to heirs.
So while the experts are doing what pay their bills, endeavor to accumulate as much Bitcoin as you can so you don't miss out on the next ride.

terrific

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Quote from: gunhell16 on October 06, 2023, 06:42:38 PM

It is up to us whether or not we believe any predictions made by other traders in this crypto area in the trading company, but you must also have a solid reason for doing so. Let's keep in mind that even if we believe that traders are specialists, they still have shortcomings. There are no ideal traders.

Yup, no one is perfect and all of these analysts can really have some good and bad days as well just like us and the market.
There is no one can can perfectly predict the market and have a good result with that because you'll not know the price in the future until that day comes.
It's about guesses and opinions and if you believe them and spend all your energy on them, that is on you.

gunhell16

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It is up to us whether or not we believe any predictions made by other traders in this crypto area in the trading company, but you must also have a solid reason for doing so. Let's keep in mind that even if we believe that traders are specialists, they still have shortcomings. There are no ideal traders.

We make predictions because we project where we believe the value of the assets we trade will go in terms of price. Through YouTube and other channels, many people continue to claim to be trading gurus. Don't believe it if you are certain it is false or dubious. The individual in the article provided by the OP has no reason to believe the confessor.

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

...

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

That is why we make decisions based on what we understand about the market situation, not these influencers or being called market experts because they still never know what gonna happen next. What they did is just pure speculation and none has been right, can be close but not really get the exact price. Indeed, performing research is advisable and we can do the same (speculate). The more we got into analyzing the market personally, the more we understood about the volatility of the market.

Lucius

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Quote from: lovesmayfamilis on October 06, 2023, 05:09:07 AM

Was there at least one predictor analyst who was able to accurately guess the price of Bitcoin in a certain period of time? Surely there were close forecasts, but it was an accident; no one gave a stable, accurate forecast. All we know is the history of Bitcoin's growth after halving, and it is not at all necessary to believe people who have gained weight in the cryptocurrency world. It is enough to study history and not to inflate sky-high prices that Bitcoin simply cannot reach because this is no longer possible. Reality and reason are the best guides, and it makes no sense to believe that this has already been predicted by someone.

Do you remember Tim Draper and his statement from 2014 that after 3 years the price of BTC will be at least $10 000, which of course happened, although everyone laughed at him then? Of course, we can say that the man is just lucky, especially his next speculation has not (yet) come true if we consider that the price is nowhere near $250 000 as he stated in 2018, although he later added that this price could be reach during 2023.

Taking into account the possible halving effects and the potential possibility that the first spot BTC ETF will be approved in the US at the beginning of next year, the next ATH could very easily reach between $150k and even more.

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Quote from: Silberman on October 06, 2023, 01:29:47 AM

Over the long term the accuracy of your predictions should reflect the overall accuracy of your strategy, in a way this is the same we see in gambling games, in which you could win or lose ten times in a row, but if you were to play that game long enough then your results will come to match the probabilities of winning and losing in that game, so it is not a big deal that someone gets one of their predictions wrong, as the only way this was not possible would be if they could win every single trade all the time, an impossibility of course.

Well, you see, it's rather challenging to comment on an experience because experiences indeed play a pivotal role in every decision we make and the outcomes we anticipate. However, is an analyst prepared to expend their fair share of trial and error to provide the public with highly accurate predictions? Certainly, the trial and error phase must be navigated individually, and when it surfaces, an analyst emerges as a seasoned, professional individual ready to build their reputation with the skills they have acquired.

Undoubtedly, experience holds a central role, and I don't doubt that. Nevertheless, having substantial experience doesn't necessarily absolve someone from making mistakes.

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

Bitcoin analysts and those who have been in the market for a long time with experience will always believe and assume that they know everything, despite the fact that no one knows everything, and the bitcoin market will always be unpredictable, but they can get a close prediction but not an accurate prediction, as in the case of this person in question. When you conduct your own market analysis, you may obtain results that are similar or dissimilar to his, but this does not imply that your predictions are incorrect or unreliable.

The most important thing is to follow the trend and keep an eye out for most predictions that are closely forecasted, especially when the bull run is close, with the caution of not relying entirely on it. You understand market volatility by having three alternative forecasted assumptions from analysis that will at the very least to guide you through the market in the future.

lovesmayfamilis

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Was there at least one predictor analyst who was able to accurately guess the price of Bitcoin in a certain period of time? Surely there were close forecasts, but it was an accident; no one gave a stable, accurate forecast. All we know is the history of Bitcoin's growth after halving, and it is not at all necessary to believe people who have gained weight in the cryptocurrency world. It is enough to study history and not to inflate sky-high prices that Bitcoin simply cannot reach because this is no longer possible. Reality and reason are the best guides, and it makes no sense to believe that this has already been predicted by someone.

Silberman

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Quote from: bayu7adi on October 04, 2023, 04:25:43 AM

Quote from: Xcode7 on October 04, 2023, 02:31:02 AM

It's true that no one knows for sure, but I don't believe in the luck of the analysis carried out by someone, all of this exists or the analysis occurs because of the knowledge that he has which collects all kinds of data or methods so that predictions are born,

However, luck still plays a role in every accurate prediction made. The unluckiest individuals will remain unlucky and may not accurately guess prices.

We often hear many words of wisdom and ancient sayings, such as "fools lose to the wise, but the wise lose to the lucky." Someone may conduct an analysis based on what they know, but in the end, gut feelings and luck can still play a part.

As long as speculation remains an uncertain and hard-to-predict science, luck will always be needed, no matter how smart a person is.

Over the long term the accuracy of your predictions should reflect the overall accuracy of your strategy, in a way this is the same we see in gambling games, in which you could win or lose ten times in a row, but if you were to play that game long enough then your results will come to match the probabilities of winning and losing in that game, so it is not a big deal that someone gets one of their predictions wrong, as the only way this was not possible would be if they could win every single trade all the time, an impossibility of course.

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

-cut-
So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

So he was wrong on this one so he set his next possible target even lower? Good luck with that.

But i want to point out as technical analysis is based on probability, it would be insanely unlikely that someone would not make mistakes, as they come part of probability. People can't even predict stock markets so why could they do that with bitcoin? And if someone actuallty would know where the market is headed, they would shut up about their golden goose and just trade money for themselves.

However i would like to see more alternative estimates from Benjamin, than "it might go to $10k now", which isn't really saying anything. Might with what probability? What else it might do and how likely is that?

Topic: Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong - page 3. (Read 731 times)