Topic: Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong - page 4. (Read 663 times)

That would be a very nice jump to about $35k+ from the current price, so even though nothing is impossible when it comes to BTC, somehow it seems to me that without some super good news, something like that is not really realistic to expect. I remember 2015 and the price of BTC, which was just a little over $200 that year (at least for a good part of the year), and that 30% then and today is not even close to the same.

Given that we have been between $25k and $30k for a long time, every jump in price results in increased sales, considering that everyone is looking for any profit, and we saw that a few days ago when we crossed $28k and quickly went back.

However, luck still plays a role in every accurate prediction made. The unluckiest individuals will remain unlucky and may not accurately guess prices.

We often hear many words of wisdom and ancient sayings, such as "fools lose to the wise, but the wise lose to the lucky." Someone may conduct an analysis based on what they know, but in the end, gut feelings and luck can still play a part.

As long as speculation remains an uncertain and hard-to-predict science, luck will always be needed, no matter how smart a person is.

It's true that no one knows for sure, but I don't believe in the luck of the analysis carried out by someone, all of this exists or the analysis occurs because of the knowledge that he has which collects all kinds of data or methods so that predictions are born, whether true or false. This is quite a common thing, especially with Bitcoin which has quite fast movements.
I think it is very selfish of people who think that experienced analysts cannot be wrong in analyzing future prices, that is impossible.

It's a great way to screw yourself up by listing all the analysts. If you do not have enough knowledge or experience to do your own analysis then pick one or two analysts who are well know for their technical analysis. Use their overview to understand the market by connecting all the events and news that have happened in the past and are upcoming in the future. Despite this always use your own instincts to take the next steps.

Yeah you are correct. I am still waiting on my 70k number to show up. 😀.

I will predict the following we will get a miner relief rally.

Before April 1st. I am thinking we get close to 36k for oct 31 40k by Jan 1 and very near 50k by April 1.

Lets see how good I do.

I think that up to now no one really knows how the price of Bitcoin moves and even if their predictions are correct, it is certainly more likely that they will have luck from the results of the predictions made because they cannot use the same analysis that they would otherwise use for other opportunities. You are right, it is very difficult to make predictions about Bitcoin and we don't know with certainty the cause.

If an expert can also have room for error, then aren't we, who are merely predicting that Bitcoin's price will be bullish after the halving, also susceptible to failure in our predictions?

Indeed, analysts in the market have several reasons to determine the direction in which the market is likely to move, based on analyzing historical prices and other key parameters. However, for someone who isn't even an expert in the field, it certainly boils down to luck in speculation. Bitcoin truly exhibits surprising fluctuations – whether this is due to whales controlling it, in other words, manipulating it, or if the Bitcoin market is genuinely challenging to predict is a mystery. No one knows for sure.

It is a pretty normal thing and it's normal to be wrong at times like this since we all know that we can't really predict the market, even though you are already an expert or just a newbie trader you still can predict the movement of the market for sure, that just means that these successful traders still loses money when they gamble probably in future trades. I mean there was no shame in it since it was all just speculation, surely we they can predict the market accurately then the market probably is just going to collapse since they just going to continue to drain the market.

To be honest, there was no expectation at the market price of Bitcoin this year probably it is just going to be a small pump just because Bitcoin halving was near, I think it also happened last Bitcoin when the Bitcoin halving was near we going to see little few pumps and considering that ber month was a good month for sure. And then the hype is going to slow down as soon as we are getting near to the halving event.

I wish I had but sadly there is someone who got there first.  .


And that kind of prediction still going.  Sadly people who are into idolizing people tends to follow their predictions blindly which resulted in their loss.


Sadly not all readers are veterans like the many of us. So it does not hurt to have some thread like this to remind new comers about the topic.


I don't think the guy will lose viewers since he humbly admitted his mistake, I appreciate his action thus he gain my respect.  Others tend to be arrogant and makes a lot of excuses just to save themselves.

how many of this kind thread before we truly understand that Bitcoin is unpredictable ? that not like altcoin whos can easy to manipulate, bitcoin is far different from this,
only listen to your instinct and listen to your need and willingness .


and with what happened, he will surely lose some of His avid viewers and will start to look at the market instead of listening to Him.

This should not be surprising, which is why we need to own our mistaken predictions as it is not really a big deal to get it wrong, as this is something that happens to everyone, in fact if you met someone that argues that they do not make any mistakes or that they have a very high accuracy rate which is way higher than what it can be expected out of other traders, then you know that you are dealing with a scammer or with someone that is at least just lying to your face.

I think it's not an absolute thing and we have to follow whatever we want. Here I say that making profitable trades is difficult and there is no perfect technique. Well, this is where we need to learn how to measure market thoughts. I think it's also worth experimenting with different indicators and making an effort to examine price prediction formulas so that we know exactly what to measure and how to measure it. Why like that? because Bitcoin trading is global, distributed through electronic exchanges around the world.

It seems that the OP has discovered America. Of course the analysts fail. All of them. If they could predict price behaviour consistently they would have made fortunes, as philipma1957 says and they would be on their private island in the caribbean sunning themselves, not working making predictions.

The clearest proof is that this cycle not a single fucking analyst has been able to get the peak of the bitcoin price right, which was $69,000. All predictions were for higher prices.

The only issue is that people still keep on caring about what these people say even when they were wrong. You saw this Benjamin guy wrong right? Would you ever care what he would say about the future of bitcoin prices? I wouldn't, I think that would be wrong and should not be done and I think it would be quite terrible on the long run.

I think it is better to have something that would gain a ton of profit when you know what you are doing. This is why it is a big deal to ignore these people, let them be experts to some other followers they have and just try to figure out what you can do yourself. I have seen bitcoin during September and kept on buying, if I thought it would go down then why would I buy, which means that I knew it wouldn't go down and I was right, and he was wrong, does that make me an expert on this? Of course not, none of us are, we should all do our own research.

What amuse me most about all of these bitcoin analysis predictions is that, within the next month or so, you will learn that someone else made a false prediction about bitcoin, forgetting that no matter how many times he tries, he will never be able to correctly predict the price of bitcoin.

I like the fact that Benjamin Cowen acknowledged he had predicted bitcoin incorrectly. How I wish more people would realize that no matter how skilled you are at studying the crypto market, the price of Bitcoin cannot be forecast. I don't believe Benjamin Cowen will attempt to make another bitcoin prediction.

The irony of this is by tomorrow or else, we will learn that another guy publicly predicted the price of bitcoin, and people will start to believe him, forgetting that no one has ever properly predicted the price of bitcoin.

Which expression, you literally stated that I mistaken seasoned traders for spiritual being when in fact I stated they are just human...




Care to reiterate the things I said in this thread that may misled people?



You find it mockery when it goes against your ideal but it is ok if it goes against others, I stated that I think, my own perspective, that you need to work on your comprehension  and that is not an absolute thing because other may agree or disagree unlike you stating my english is so bad which is absolute in its form. Now who is giving a mockery here?



In this we agree.

---

After all the exchanges, lets chill out and don't take things personally, I have the tongue emoticon there which means the statement is a friendly joke. Peace 

It's unfortunate that at times someone who needs advice is the one alleging its absence in others and finds a gentle opposition aggressive. Your English must be so bad to the point that you don't understand a simple expression. No one ever said you mentioned a spiritual being but mistaken it for a seasoned trader as only a spiritual being could possess the 100% winning characteristics you expected of Benjamin Cowen or any other trader/investor whatsoever. For your information, I'm never a fan of the guy but I like to tell the truth so that someone like you will not mislead others. No trader/investor is perfect and targets are often missed by the most successful ones.

What I read in the OP is tantamount to mockery, others might join you, but as an experienced trader and investor, I won't. If Benjamin Cowen didn't have the target hit this time, he could next time. This is trading, no one is perfect, at least he was right with the trend then.

I also advise anyone to rather be their own trader or complement their trading advice with theirs, but not blindly follow anyone. Any analysis could fail in the shortest time, and I've witnessed it even in mine many times due to the dynamism of the market.

One of the reasons on why im not really that a fan on following someone or really that easily do believe on whatever price predictions they do have. No matter if they are famous billionaires or institutional investors then there's no difference at all because we are all speculators here on this space and neither you are experienced or not but results or outcomes of price movements would really be that totally random and its not something that
could really be easily known or no man on this world would really be able to do so. There are lots of price predictions that had made out but it didnt really happen. Of course they would really be having those
"sorry" or apologies that would come out into their mouths on which it is really that not shocking. This is why its always that ideal that you should really know on following your own price predictions and analysis
rather than on making yourself having a fun on trying to follow those so-called popular people who do make out their analysis and shared up publicly.

The only thing that i dont really like to feel is on having that regret on following someone specially if the price had fucked up those analysis in front of your on which
it would really be leaving out that kind of emotion or not the best feeling. You would eventually be able to experience that if you are fan on following those speculations made out by other people.

Did you read anywhere on my post that I said they are spiritual being? Are you a fan of Benjamin Cowen? I find your statement quite aggressive besides I think you need to work more in your comprehension  .



True that but there will always be people who are blindly following especially those who resort to follow popular people's advice.

Unfortunately - I know very well that none of us know about the future. Predictions are not certain - but predictions are a good way to determine attitudes towards investment plans and they should be supported by various analyses.

Experienced predictors probably know how to maintain optimism about the market so they won't make random predictions. Support from fundamental and technical analysis is needed when making predictions - but this is not financial advice for anyone. If you believe in other people's predictions 100% - then you should know that you have chosen greater risk for your own investments. Do additional analysis and learn to keep testing it - it will definitely be useful.