Even Seasoned Analysts Can Get it Wrong - page 5.

philipma1957

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Quote from: franky1 on October 02, 2023, 09:34:08 AM

no one can predict what the price will be at any given time. so no one can be wrong because there is not sentiment that people should be right.. EG is a random number generator wrong for generating a random number

however by looking at world efficiency cost of mining as a minimum cost of the planet. its safe to say the price would not have gone below $20k so although i dont like these analysts that pretend to predict the price he may have been right that if there was a crash the spot market bottom may have been $23k

everyone and anyone can predict the price at anytime.

none of us can do it accurately time and time again.

If we could we would have all made fortunes buying low and selling high.😀

my guess is we are close to fall of of 2015 which means a sharp upstake of around 30% over the next 30 days.!

Dunamisx

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Anyone can get it all wrong including the professional institutions and organizations who made their own prediction after they would have leverage on many positions using different trading strategies, yet they loose and their prediction fails, this doesn't mean out of all their attempts they are not yet successful in them, bitcoin market is something that can remain unpredictable in most times and change even at the least time we less expect such to happen, while we get it right in most cases, we can still have a wrong speculation and loose from the way we analyze the market flow and direction.

Sexylizzy2813

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No one can ever prediction Bitcoin price let's leave it at that and at some point is like someone let the cat out of the bag, with the way Bitcoin price is running we might see $30k before the end of this week, who knows?🤔
I just believe that investors are going to be smiling with the way the price is going in their favor, those who couldn't wait till this moment would be in regret by now. October can give us $32k if care is not taken, let's hope it continues with this movement and never to go back down any time soon.

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no one can predict what the price will be at any given time. so no one can be wrong because there is not sentiment that people should be right.. EG is a random number generator wrong for generating a random number

however by looking at world efficiency cost of mining as a minimum cost of the planet. its safe to say the price would not have gone below $20k so although i dont like these analysts that pretend to predict the price he may have been right that if there was a crash the spot market bottom may have been $23k

STT

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I would not say even they get it wrong but of course its normal to get it wrong. The difference in any real prediction off charts is knowing when its just jumped the rails and done something different. If we werent paying attention it would go unnoticed and you miss a great move developing which is a shame, BTC can really move at times. Mostly its been going in circles but right now its positive past the 50 day and weekly averages, good momentum appears.
What we need now for something new not just a repeat of prior action is to beat the underside of the summer pricing about 29k and above, otherwise we repeat. I would not trust too much who only expects one thing to happen, market dont care what he predicts and any news or price action can occur at September end. If his judgement was good, we can now say outperformance has and is more probable to be occuring.

philipma1957

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Quote from: BitDane on October 01, 2023, 04:33:49 PM

This article: $23,000 Bitcoin (BTC) Prediction Changed by Analyst Benjamin Cowen is a proof that no one knows the future. Benjamin Cowen is a prominent analyst that states that Bitcoin will be hitting 23k at the end of September.

Quote

Arman Shirinyan
Analyst Benjamin Cowen's bearish prediction for Bitcoin hitting $23,000 in September proved to be off mark

Since his prediction is out of line he admitted that he was wrong in his prediction:

The article also stated that instead of Bitcoin plummeting to $23k, Bitcoin market instead shows a more stable outlook.

This simply shows that even veterans and seasoned analyst with their accumulated market experience cannot predict the future price of Bitcoin. It is not because of unpredictable Bitcoin market volatility but because they are just human who has no power to see the future. Imagine if an investor shorts his trade to buy at lower price because he believe on the prediction of Cowen that price will go down to $23k at the end of September, this person could have been in a loss.

So this is a great reminder to us investors to not just believe anything that a person, no matter how popular or knowledgeable they are, stated without doing any researches to verify their statement. After all it was out money that is on line.

Because it was a short time prediction.

If I say BTC will be 33333-35350 by October 31st 2023 the odds are I will get it wrong.

If I say BTC will be over 29k by oct 2023 the odds are still that I can be wrong. Looking at BTC month to month is not the way to do it.

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Quote from: Sexylizzy2813 on October 02, 2023, 01:47:29 AM

I guess non of those analyst saw Bitcoin price getting to $28k this morning (that's when I saw it) because it might be that some of them just wait for the move and then they'll make their prediction while some traders who are novice in the market would just fall for their prediction.
We shouldn't give up on the market and we should also pay less attention to those predictions we see on blogs or sites, even the expected bull can turn out to be something different. As it is the best thing is to always follow what we feel and see oin the market rather than predictions from our fellow humans, October would be favorable to investors, next stop is $29k.

I was among the few bitcoin holders who expected this current price condition because when bitcoin could have sustained its 27k+ price all through last week and made multiple attempts to move above that price in the last week.

But at the moment bitcoin has broken that benchmark and has touched the 28k price today as mentioned in this comment as I haven't checked the price for so long, since I am not a day trader and don't care about the daily price chart.

Let's hope we see a 29k price soon and if that happens, it will be a breaking point and a determinant factor to where we can speculate the price to be at the next bull run after bitcoin halving.

Nrcewker

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Yes from past few months, it’s really hard to predict Bitcoins. I mean there are many factors which are affecting the price of Bitcoins significantly. Hence we can’t exactly predict the movement of the coin. All we know is that Bitcoins are fixed in numbers, that is no more Bitcoins can be created, hence it made Bitcoins very valuable. So on a long run, the price of Bitcoins will definitely be very high. So to yield the maximum profit, we can just hold the coins for a longer period of time.

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This is why it is called a prediction. The person needs to know the future, to be sure of the direction of the price, or that the price can be manipulated, but without these two reasons, it is all an expectation, and it differs from the prediction of a random person in that it is coupled with evidence and analysis, so the percentage of its occurrence is still high, but they are not facts.
Always try to have a range when you want to predict the price of Bitcoin or write orders based on that, because in many cases the price moves randomly, and here your alternative plan must be ready.

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From what we have experienced so far, we already know that no one can predict exactly where Bitcoin will go. Those who predict the price of Bitcoin are only spreading fear to the public, especially if they say that the price of Bitcoin will fall to its lowest price as said by Cowen.

So we don't need to worry about anything that happens to Bitcoin, especially if we want to store Bitcoin for the long term. Just let the market move wherever it wants. We have to wait until our investment is reached and then we sell the Bitcoin or we want to wait even longer.

Maybe in the future, we will see more people making predictions on Bitcoin's movements. And as Bitcoin investors, we must have a strong hand in holding Bitcoin until the time we determine comes. And don't blindly believe what other people say about their predictions for Bitcoin.

Fundamentals Of

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This is a very normal thing for us in the Bitcoin market. There are many of us here who have been around for a long time, have seen the price movements of Bitcoin over the years, some even a decade. There are many of us here who have already been highly familiar with the kinds of patterns Bitcoin has created in the past. But are they now accurate in their predictions? No, they remain just like anybody else, guessing.

And it's not just because they are humans. It's because the price of Bitcoin is highly unpredictable. Humans have been accurately predicting many other things. But that won't include Bitcoin. The most that we can say about Bitcoin is that it will create a new ATH. That's almost 100% guaranteed. So what's our strategy then? For me, it's to hodl.

Sexylizzy2813

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I guess non of those analyst saw Bitcoin price getting to $28k this morning (that's when I saw it) because it might be that some of them just wait for the move and then they'll make their prediction while some traders who are novice in the market would just fall for their prediction.
We shouldn't give up on the market and we should also pay less attention to those predictions we see on blogs or sites, even the expected bull can turn out to be something different. As it is the best thing is to always follow what we feel and see oin the market rather than predictions from our fellow humans, October would be favorable to investors, next stop is $29k.

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Quote from: EarnOnVictor on October 02, 2023, 01:30:13 AM

OP, you are mistaken seasoned traders for spiritual beings, did anyone tell you they are perfect? If Benjamin Cowen tells you that he's 100% accurate, then let us know.

I hate to read what those analysts are saying. The reason is that as some analysts are saying the market will be bullish, some analysts will be saying the market will be bearish. Did you know what is most ridiculous about these analysts, they do not indicate the accuracy of the analyses and prediction, newbies can easily fall for it if the newbie only read one but which can be disappointing.

EarnOnVictor

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OP, you are mistaken seasoned traders for spiritual beings, did anyone tell you they are perfect? If Benjamin Cowen tells you that he's 100% accurate, then let us know.

I don't think any wise trader would say that, so you don't expect perfection from him as a human being. The best traders will have their losing and gaining moment, and those with track success records would not have all their analyses hit the target but they would still know how to manage the situation effectively to their advantage so that they will either not lose in the long run or not lose all their initial gains depending on the situation.

You would have been more constructive if you added the price at which Benjamin Cowen gave the analysis, after all, Bitcoin still breached below $24,900 last month, so he's right with the prediction but the target was missed, and he might have closed his position earlier than now if I sensed right. This is normal in trading as we are all speculating, no one truly can predict 100%, and that is where trading management steps in for us.

It's only the blind followers who suffer the brunt.

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When he made the prediction it didn’t seem to far fetched at least. It was certainly possible it could hit. $23k. The craziest predictions are the ones which are claiming bitcoin will reach ATH or $1M by the end of the year.

Those predictions are just guessing but more people view those articles and hence why they are reported on news sites. But we all know that it’s just hopium and most likely will never happen.

sunsilk

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I am always taking these predictions with a grain of salt because no one knows the future indeed. But with interesting add ups to what they're predicting, it's actually good to read the points that they're sharing as to why they think it's going to be like this and that.

We shouldn't be dependent on these predictions and make ourselves our very own. There's nothing to share it as long as there are interesting and valid points and why you think it really will.

At the end of these predictions, this doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin is volatile and proves that even more. Just like now, it's just a few bucks away until Bitcoin goes $28k again.

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Quote from: Sexylizzy2813 on October 01, 2023, 04:48:33 PM

This has to be a lesson to those who always depend on prediction of how Bitcoin price goes up and down, if an investor choose to follow all these online predictions I believe the loss would be much.
Look at the current price of Bitcoin, I believe that is only few people who have that faith that it will get to $27k with the way it has been roaming around $26k for long now, and with the prediction of Benjamin Cowen that it will fall to $23k by the end of last month I myself won't believe not until I see it. I still have that hope of seeing BTC price at $30k+, and with the current price ($27k) is a step up heading towards $28k.
Nobody knows tomorrow and nobody knows how much the price will be in the next coming days, to me is just hoping and accepting what the market brings.

Indeed, nobody knows tomorrow. The age of prophecy had long been gone so people who are predicting the future specifically the price movement are all guesses and there is not a single assurance that it will happen. Aside from that, analyst had been proven wrong by Bitcoin market again and again so we should not rely on these kinds of predictions when it comes to our investment. We must update ourselves regularly and be onlook for big news, this way through our own reasoning and knowledge, we can make our move toward Bitcoin trading.

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Quote from: Sexylizzy2813 on October 01, 2023, 04:48:33 PM

This has to be a lesson to those who always depend on prediction of how Bitcoin price goes up and down, if an investor choose to follow all these online predictions I believe the loss would be much.
Look at the current price of Bitcoin, I believe that is only few people who have that faith that it will get to $27k with the way it has been roaming around $26k for long now, and with the prediction of Benjamin Cowen that it will fall to $23k by the end of last month I myself won't believe not until I see it. I still have that hope of seeing BTC price at $30k+, and with the current price ($27k) is a step up heading towards $28k.
Nobody knows tomorrow and nobody knows how much the price will be in the next coming days, to me is just hoping and accepting what the market brings.

do remember that those people, so-called experts or self-proclaimed experts are also humans. and they are only basing their predictions to certain extent and not really having the crystal ball to see the future.
so if you don't want to get liquidated easy on this market, be conservative with your estimates, and assess your financial situation.

Sexylizzy2813

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This has to be a lesson to those who always depend on prediction of how Bitcoin price goes up and down, if an investor choose to follow all these online predictions I believe the loss would be much.
Look at the current price of Bitcoin, I believe that is only few people who have that faith that it will get to $27k with the way it has been roaming around $26k for long now, and with the prediction of Benjamin Cowen that it will fall to $23k by the end of last month I myself won't believe not until I see it. I still have that hope of seeing BTC price at $30k+, and with the current price ($27k) is a step up heading towards $28k.
Nobody knows tomorrow and nobody knows how much the price will be in the next coming days, to me is just hoping and accepting what the market brings.

Wiwo

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Bitcoin hard alas have its own way of proving most speculator wrong and that is the beauty of the volatility of Bitcoin, no one have the ability to control, influence or predict what the future price will be at all time and this is why we always say that you should do your own research and only hold an amount of bitcoin you can afford to hold for a long time.

His failed speculation is another pointer that Bitcoin goes beyond any whales or an influencer who may think that Bitcoin could easily be manipulated or predicted at whatever point.

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