Topic: Extrapolating 2014 Correction: Could $6,500 Be The Low For Bitcoin? (Read 460 times)

Been there, done that.

Years ago I had this mindset like "the market has to hit my perfectly charted level before it can go up!" No, the market doesn't give a shit about your chart or what you think is going to happen.

It took a long time to shift away from making predictions (and becoming biased by them) and towards reacting to the market. Fence sitting is fine if you can actually recognize when market conditions are changing and then get in.

What most people do is fence sit during bear markets then wait in denial for months and months while a new bull market becomes obvious. Then they start saying things like "I missed the boat" and refuse to buy in for that reason. Then they wait for one more dip that never comes. Markets are so funny.

This is why DCA is a good idea for most people. They are too scared to buy bear market bottoms, they are too scared to buy into bull markets, and when they finally do give in out of greed, they buy the top!

Seems that you are going to miss opportunities when you consider the matter like that..

But, yeah, we have bounced around a lot in these prices previously, so sometimes if you have already bought in this price arena, then you might not be eager to buy here again.

I personally still believe that odds are against going below our current $6,425 low from December; however, if prices get below $7k, then the odds of revisiting $6,425 become much greater.

Also, there are a few kinds of investors, and some are merely waiting for perceived bargains which could be because they already have coins or could be because they are skeptical of BTC.. and others are just stacking along the way, but they do not want to stack at prices that they have already stacked.

I recall quite a few people who missed the train because they are waiting too much, so in early 2017 when BTC prices were dipping from $1.7k-ish to nearly $800, there were some folks waiting for $500, so they ended up missing out by waiting for BTC prices that never ended up coming or even coming close to returning to those levels.. .and shit, would have been lucky to get prices under $3k after that, and even our dip in 2018 did not bring sub $3k prices like so many fence sitters were anticipating..

Here's the chance for $5k.. wait, wait, wait, and don't DCA... and get fucked by trying to be more greedy than prudent... 

When I first got into bitcoin in late 2013, I frequently asserted that prudent BTC investing timelines should be at least 2 years, but with the passage of time, it seems that 4 years or more would be our current BTC investing timelines... so it is likely not going to make much difference if you buy BTC at $8k-ish or if you were to get a sub $6.4k opportunity, but that is just my DCA and incrementalism imbedded thinking which has done quite well for me over the past 6+ years of buying our lil friends and HODLing through tough times (and maybe picking up a few more here or there without necessarily waiting for the maximum dip.. but just making sure that I have more money if the price dips lower than my previous buy price).

Let the market convincingly break established weekly and monthly support levels in the $7,000s and $6,000s first before planning on $5K.

In fact, the 200-week MA is at $5,500 and rising. I doubt you'll be able to buy much below there at all.

If we do see the 200-week MA again, you'll have an extremely short time period to buy there. Most people will be too scared to pull the trigger, and will be waiting for $3K by then. They will end up buying much higher.

Are we going to see 5k or not? I'm not into DCA, I will only buy dips, but I need to make sure that level is really the dip.

 I agree with Warren Buffett here, be greedy when others are fearful and right now bitcoin is seen as going down like hell by many people and a lot of them sells. Right now price looks perfect to buy for long term, if you are going to sell in the next couple of months maybe this is not the perfect place for you but if you can hold it for 12-18 months this is probably the best price you will find.

If you buy from here, I can almost guarantee that you will profit %30 in the next 1 to 1.5 years and that is a great return on your investment. Not many people could find this beautiful situations in investment world and dream of making this much money so I assume buying from here could be the best investment that could be done right now in all of financial world.

It's similar to a momentum oscillator like RSI. You can't just buy when it hits oversold. If it were that simple, we'd all be rich.

I do think the index can offer some insight, especially when taken in combination with other sentiment indicators like active position data, open interest, interest rates, and overall social media + forum opinions. All these things together build a picture that tells us what everyone else in the market is doing.

I stopped following the Fear and Greed indicator after the nasty crash we got in November 2018. Basically it was at the "Extreme fear" area many times like in Aug-Sept and Oct 2018 and it still went lower and when it went lower in November-December 2018 the indicators only slightly went below the prior low extreme fear number. So even though its low now it can still go lower.

Right now I still think in a month or so we can rally and hopefully retest the 2019 highs of $13.8K. I just think we went to $10.5K too fast and the funding rates and futures premiums all pointed to a nasty correction one day. Now with coronavirus it makes it a little worse because it adds to the fear. However we will see what happens in May 2020 for the halving.

Was $6,500 the swing low or does it look like we will go lower? I still see no evidence as to why we would break these lows, based on current probabilities.


Without regurgitating the same analysis as VPVR Part 1, that is based on a similar accumulation zone as the above chart, here is that updated TA:

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Furthermore, if the Fear & Greed Index is anything to go by (it usually is), this confirms that accumulating at current prices is not only within the long-term accumulation zone, but additionally at current oversold conditions, it would be doing so when the market is experiencing extreme fear, hence my relative greed right now. "Be greedy and others are fearful", from the infamous Bitcoin critic Warren Buffet.

Nothing is "impossible" however we're building quite some good foundation right now with a sideways time correction. But it looks that we're leaving the upper band of the downward channel finally behind for good. And it seems to work as planned for my investment at the end of 2019.

Absolutely not. We won't see the price drop under 8k every again. 8.2k to be more precise. The reason: people are more incentivise to hodl as we approach the halving. Every new low will be higher than the one before. In the last low the price dopped to 8.25k.

Price noticeably finding support from the upper band of the anticipated accumulation zone (based on 2015 accumulation), indicating that accumulation may now be over.
Unless we fall back into this range with consecutive candle closes, my outlook is now bullish:

Currently testing the horizontal resistance level of the accumulation zone after bouncing back from horizontal support:



Continuing on the 2014 path would imply an orderly correction back down to $6,800-6,900 to continue forming a horizontal channel by early next month, fitting in line nicely with this time-based analysis:

Updated OP screenshot, still looking good following the accumulation path and finding support from near base support this time.

OP updated, still very much following the accumulation path, not much else to add:



The network strength now has confluence with $6,500 being the low, as well as accumulation theory:

I do see this argument I'm not going to deny. Another perspective would be at $6K when the minority believed prices would fall to the $4-5K area, the majority felt we'd hold the $6K area and/or breakout to the upside, instead we reached $3.2K, that I tiny minority were calling for. Personally I feel the majority are expecting accumulation or continued bullish price, but it depends what you read and who you follow etc. Instead I feel the minority are again expecting it to drop to $5-6K, whereas we may bottom out in the low $4K range instead as few are suggesting it, who knows. The only thing I would say for certain is you can't be 100% sure on any theory, even if you are 90% confident.



1 week left until bear-cross is confirmed on Monthly chart: fact not opinion.

Correct, I really enjoy reading your analysis and mind set. In 2015 the halving was also far far away and it felt so unsecure if Bitcoin will even survive. I'm also leaning strongly towards that we are in an accumulation period right now.

that might have been a bad example since the reverse happened but the point is that the statements you read online doesn't always reflect what people think. in case of $3200 example all the  chatter pointed to a big fear factor and logically price should have fallen. but the reality was that most people were actually buying even though they were telling others not to.

right now things are exactly the same. if you look around most speculators are expecting a drop! they call it end of the year Christmas dump, miner capitulation, plus token scam, ... and their guesses are in range of $5000 and $6000 but as we can see there is no drops happening.

This is precisely why I believe this could be an accumulation zone, buyers and sellers are matched. Still 2x from the low, 50% down from the high. Kind of obvious really.


It's nothing to do with law, it's based on probability of market cycles. Probability is based on mathematics, that in itself is based on fixed constants, tried and tested for thousands of years.


Your example is exactly why I do put value in the online sentiment, as well as other metrics such as fear & greed index. When everyone thought at $3200 price would drop lower, it didn't. Now everyone thinks that the price will either moon or dump, maybe it won't you know as per usual most people will be wrong, including myself.. This is how markets also work.


Check out these 8 long-term extrapolations. 3 of which have completed (were correct), the other 5 remain accurate or relevant (still active):
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-repeating-history-ta-series-on-repeating-past-patterns-5188537

if you look at the bigger picture the end result won't look as bad. the bigger picture is where price is $3200 and it goes up to $13800 then comes down to $7xxx.
in other words what we have here is the correction after a 330% rise. and the result is still 125% above the price at the beginning of the year.

and what law says there must be a certain proportion here?
i don't know of any and there is no reason why there should be any.

i wouldn't put too much value in what people say online. most of them are emotional and saying their wishes. i remember when price was $3200 everyone was saying it will drop to $1000 and they were expecting the rise to start in 2020 when halving starts! with that logic we should have never seen the 330% rise this year...

i don't really like or believe in extrapolation because i don't believe in repetition of any kind of cycles so i won't try to justify it.
but i say that if there were any repetition then it should look like what i posted above and it starts from the peek ($20k) not from one of the peeks in 2019 long after the bubble

I hear you, $162 was that low in August 2015 on Bitfinex. You're right it wouldn't been a lot better using Bitfinex data for this chart, that $162 wick would no doubt be testing the support of the accumulation zone (around $6,500) for the second and last time, effectively confirming the range as accumulation. Thanks for pointing that out.

I usually avoid Bitfinex charts due to the tether scam price fluctuations that occurs on it. Really I want the Bitfinex extrapolation on a Coinbase/BLX chart, since Bitfinex doesn't have the volume or stability it used to compared to other exchanges, but otherwise any older extrapolations should be based on this exchange volume as you put it.

Without re-publishing (that I don't think is necessarily), I will make a comment on the chart with your reference point, and bare this in mind for future extrapolations:

I lived thru the 2014-2015 bear market and I looked at your chart and I was puzzled and basically had to load-up the BTCUSD from that era and there is a difference and the difference is significant.

You don't have this shown on your chart but in Aug 2015 on Bitfinex, there was some event (forgot what ) that lead to bitcoin having a double bottom actually at the $165 area. I know this because I actually had a short from $300 that I covered exactly when that low broke and pretty much covered at the lowest low price in the last 5 years.

Bitfinex charts should be given preference since back then its where most of the trading was done. Had the most volume and liquidity. There was no Bitmex back then. So you should update your chart using the Bitfinex data.

In my opinion, that's why it won't work out. The context doesn't make sense. The 2015 accumulation range was the bottom of a multi-year bear market. The entire downtrend was characterized by lower highs and lower lows until late 2015 when the bear market was broken. In contrast, the 2018 bear market was broken by virtually all metrics in early 2019.

So in terms of Wyckoff analysis, this projection doesn't make sense. The rally to the $13,800s marked a massive sign of strength (much larger than the one that initiated the 2016-2017 bull market). That puts us in Phase D of an accumulation schematic, where the market is re-accumulating above the previous $3K-$6K trading range. For this phase to fail would mean we are in the middle of a distribution cycle again. There's no way we would just go sideways here for a year in that case.

We've already been ranging for 2 years now, so historically the argument for continued long term ranging is getting weaker by the day.

I'm sorry this chart doesn't make sense to you, if you are not able to see an alternative perspective. Price has been falling for 6 months, in the past two years it has formed lower highs on a macro scale ($20K and $14K), so no, I don't believe there is confirmation of the "end" of the correction/bear market - as there still hasn't been long enough consolidation period in proportion with the length of the correction (whether 1 year or 2 years, depending on your perspective). The more I read people's thoughts that "we're in a bull market" and there won't be any further consolidation, despite a wealth of evidence to the contrary, the more I'm convinced there will be consolidation in the near future (if not already in play).

It reminds me of the notorious "we won't break $6K" mentality in 2018, before we obviously did.


I won't argue your extrapolation, as you failed to extrapolate the price - mainly because the overlay would be irrelevant. You have a very different perspective, that's great, but I think you're best of arguing why this extrapolation isn't relevant with a version of your own, as opposed to unrelated alternative theories. For starters, your recovery and bear trap area extrapolated would indicate a 35% drop as a bear trap, whereas price has already fallen 50+%. Needless to say, it's barely possible to extrapolate.  Not forgetting that in 2016 we had considerable amount of consolidation, within your recovery and bear trap area, so ironically your chart would only prove my point of further consolidation.

but that chart doesn't make any sense. for starters why is the 2014 correction starting from July 2019 since by then the correction was not only long over but also we have been about 150% above the bottom of the correction!!!
in other words what this charts refers to as "2014 correction" looks to me like the 2015 correction after the first biggest rise which is more like a bear trap that due to some drama got longer.

this is how i would extrapolate 2014 data to today's data.
the first 2 periods (bubble pop and bull traps) happened exactly like 2014 then the next step of reaching bottom and having the accumulation ($150 vs $3200) is exactly the same but it was shorter this time as expected to be shorter and then the recovery which started in 2016 has already started in 2018 when price went out of $3200 and moved towards $13k. then the drop from that is just a correction that is similar to "2016" bear trap.

6k was the strong low level of 2018 and everything below that happened due to manipulation. It wasn't natural for BTC to go to 3k and the market showed it by sharply recovering from that low and a year later finding a support at the same level. 6k is the level of profitability for miners and it can be defended. I believe that if we dip down below it it's going to be shallow and temporary. Maybe 5,5k for a few days followed by a recovery above 6k once again.

To put it simply: wrong. I have not taken the whole 2013-2014 correction, I have taken the second part of it, from the peak of the "dead cat bounce" that occurred half way through the bear market. If we are to consider that we have been in a bear market for 2 years, with a mini bull run in between, then this extrapolation becomes very relevant, hence accurate so far. Regardless of the fact that in 2014 the price made lower lows, as clearly the mini bull run was twice as strong of the 2014 dead cat bounce (and went twice as far). Hence the extrapolation is based on the price dropping in a similar manner (from peak of dead cat bounce down to the low), but therefore in this case not a lower low than $3,200.

You are taking whole 2014 correction and compare it with 06/2019 - 2020 correction. There is one thing missing here. Whole 2018 year and half of 2019 where the actual correction from ATH started. Bear market is here for full 2 years despite 3 bullish months. I hardly doubt this analysis has any economical background ... just wishful thinking.

Back above the middle of the accumulation zone around $7,400. We could be looking for a move back up to $8,000 "New years rally" to re-test the top of the accumulation zone before re-testing $6,850 next year in February. If you look at 2014-2019 data, February is where we see swing lows arrive, specifically between February 6th-11th suspiciously.

Could $6,500 be the low? @Sawcruhteez explores the possibility in his latest video featuring this chart:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYs2MQshjiE&feature=youtu.com&t=2058

Updated chart (December 19th):

Comment: Recent price action wicked just below the support level of the accumulation zone, similar to 2014 correction, and remains on the path of accumulation.

Sometimes the simplest extrapolations are best. No indicators on this chart, this is a pure extrapolation of the 2014-2015 correction and accumulation phase, that although is not in proportion by time or price, has notable similarities with the current fractal in play. Could $6,500 be the new swing low? Absolutely. This would imply an accumulation zone between $6.5-$8.3K for approximately 40 weeks, with the current correction lasting a reasonable 1 Year. This current extrapolation points to a breakout in price above $14K in July 2020, followed by a new all time high 6 months later in February 2021.