Why so much buzz about Croatia? They are a good team... but I can't imagine them winning this year's world cup. They may gave a good performance, like what Iceland did during the 2016 Euro Cup (bating England in PQF).
Croatia is actually 90:10 stronger then Island. Island is a fantastically solid and well-organized team though.
If we don't look at the brackets and take the current form out of the equation, I think this would be the right order:
1. France 1:2
2. Germany 1:2
3. Belgium 1:3
4. Brazil 1:4
5. Spain 1:6
6. Portugal 1:6
7. Argentina 1:8
8. England 1:10
9. Uruguay 1:12
10. Colombia 1:14
11. Croatia 1:15
12. Switzerland 1:20
The raw talent dividend among those teams, especially France at the moment, is incredible.
Then comes the rest of the lot, who can beat each other or any of the top teams, but don't have a real shot at the title.
Possible semi-final surprises could be Egypt, Russia (only because they are the hosts), Nigeria, Poland, Serbia, and Peru, maybe Senegal.
If you look at the form and the brackets, then the situation becomes quite different as there are many possible variants when top 12 teams are playing against each other.
We also have to take into account the possible surprises within groups. It is a question who out of Nigeria, Croatia and Argentina will pass the group. Portugal can easily go back to basics and disappoint. England? Would be far from the first time. Uruguay has hosts and very tricky Egypt to play against. Colombia is everything but stable. Switzerland could play three goalless draws...
Others are pretty confident I think. Spain maybe only one with possible problems - if Portugal beats them, they would have to be at their top against Iran and Morocco, and both of those teams are very solid.
Germany's chances are very dependable on the situation with Manuel Neuer.
I will really miss Chile in this World Cup. Italy and Netherlands are always missed, of course.