The fact that the peak of Messi is far behind is already visible now (it has been seen for a long time lol), and not participating in the World Cup 2026 is a reasonable decision. The problem is that he is a big brand and his participation will be beneficial for the organizers and everyone in general (except for the Argentinean national team), so one way or another he can be persuaded to participate.
Even the Argentinian team benefits as I am sure that even now his jersey is the one that is the most sold by a wide margin, especially now that he finally won a world cup, now I have said it before but I think that taking Messi to the 2026 world cup even if his skill level was lower than what it is now is not such a bad idea, as long as you can keep him on the bench then you could always put him on the field when you expect a penalty shootout to happen and basically secure a score in this way, which is a massive advantage when a match gets to those instances.
Given that the upcoming World Cup group stage will be weaker than usual (although how it can be even more weaker haha?), then he can play all 90 minutes in the group stage and this will not harm anyone and will please all fans
As for the playoff stage, it is dangerous to play such games, but against a weak opponent or with a good score, you can take risks.
~Messi is a global brand! If he is healthy enough and also strong enough to play the World Cup, his sponsors also have a genuine interest in seeing Messi play the World Cup. They could offer him additional bonuses if he decides to play it. There are lots of tools to persuade him and I think the most important tool is his engagement in the MLS itself. If he is in shape and still playing for Inter Miami, the effect it would have if he participates would be of significant importance to the MLS, but also to the hosts of the 2026 World Cup, including the USA of course. It won't be an easy decision for him because there will be a lot of external influence. I call it influence instead of pressure because I believe that Messi is in a position to decide what he thinks is best, but there is still pressure as well from outsiders.
Yep! Now I think about it even more and maybe his move to the MLS is a strategic move that will be even more profitable even against the background that he turned down contracts from Saudi Arabia? If so, then this is a sophisticated game involving several sides at once, and Messi’s “triumphant” refusal of not returning* to the national team should be expected very close to 2026.
* I hope everyone will understand me correctly, since double negation in English is taken into account differently than in many others.