Topic: FIFA World Cup 2026 :Canada/Mexico/United States: Discussion Thread - page 283. (Read 62954 times)

Might be true mate but you know that it also means that it might not be true to Messi's case because just like you've said, most of the players aren't willing to see themselves performing poorly at that age, that is why they want to retire first before any of that happens. But, you know Messi is not just your average player as he's one of the rarest species in football just like CR7, so that said, he might see him again in the 2026 defending their title.

I see no reason why Messi would want play the next world cup, it doesn't make any sense to me. The truth is that by that 2026 he won't even have that strength to go for a competition like that. In the next two year I'm not sure Messi will be active the way he is right now, young players will take over the space of Messi.

CR7 is no longer likely to play in the 2026 world cup but Messi is still possible because in 2026, Messi is only 38 and it seems that this is an age that is still very fit for Messi

but we'll see what the Argentina coach will do later, if there are other potential young players, it's not impossible that Messi will be on the bench even though I see the possibility that it will happen very little because Messi is still very much needed by the Argentina national team

Even before, Messi had announced his retirement in 2016 from the Argentine national team when he failed twice in the Copa America, but he came back and finally managed to get the title he dreamed of and  the situation will definitely be very different at the 2026 world cup and at that age he will definitely experience a decline so stay in the Argentina national team may no longer be his target and usually the defending champion will have difficulty in the next WC so it would be very honorable for Messi to only as a spectator and give supports on young players from their countries who will play.

If Argentina had not won the 2022 World  Cup it would have been a very  difficult decision for Lionel Messi to retire not to participate in 2026 World cup. Even if age will be of challenge to him he will force himself then to play the world cup, this the same issue of Ronaldo.  He thinks he hasn't achieve much that is why he sees it difficult for him to retire.

had he be so happy staying in the Portuguese team he would not have left the country and would not have move to a new society altogether.
We don't know what is in the mind to Ronaldo - but he is not ready to give up his football career

Yeah, and for Messi there's no need to go to the next World Cup. He can already retire at the top, having won everything. Wouldn't make too much sense to go back.

He can now simply get royalties from marketing, TV commercials, etc. Much simpler work and easy money, forever.

you are right on that point - and we will keep discussing  Messi and Ronaldo age for the next four year and the mean while they will be working on their fitness and will look more younger.

Messi will be 38 years old, when the next world cup starts. There is no point for him to play for so long. And it is not like Argentina is devoid of any promising younger players. They have Lautaro Martínez, Paulo Dybala, Ángel Correa and Julián Álvarez. Let Lionel Messi and Ángel Di María pass on the responsibility to these younger players in 2026. The advantage with Argentina is that their younger players are much more experienced when compared to those in the European teams, and doesn't have any problem in undertaking a greater responsibility.  

If I may once more my friend?

Generally, you would be correct that by expanding the data set, the significance of outcomes of statistical analysis will increase. HOWEVER (), we are talking about different stages of a tournament here. This means that the final is a better indicator for the strength of a team because luck decreases with every stage a team manages to pass. Luck maybe gets you from the round of 16 to the round of 8, maaybe also to the round of 4, maaaybe also to the final and maaaaybe also help you win the final. I would say that the luck factor decreases significantly, the further a team makes it into the tournament and the bigger the data set under consideration (meaning the more World Cups you take into account).

There is another important factor to keep in mind, and this is why the final is more significant statistically than the semi-final: the participating number of teams per continent (or association if you will):

AFC (Asia): 4 or 5
CAF (Africa): 5
CONCACAF (North, Central America and Caribbean): 3 or 4
CONMEBOL (South America): 4 or 5
OFC (Oceania): 0 or 1
UEFA (Europe): 13
Hosts: 1

The X or Y rule applies when there is an inter-confederation play-off and this time it was Australia vs. Peru, which is why CONMEBOL ended up with only 4 teams at the World Cup 2022.

In summary, yes, both our analyses lead to the result that over the 20 year time span we considered, UEFA was significantly dominant, and taking into account that the significance of the luck factor decreases with every round of the tournament, the numbers I provided are even more telling.

But to round this up and still stay on topic with our discussion, this is how it is exactly going to change for 2026 and you can see that the goal obviously was to decrease the relative dominance of UEFA over all other associations:



If you take the whole World Cup history and compare CONMEBOL vs. UEFA and just look at the champions, one must say that CONMEBOL did a pretty good job!

There it is UEFA 12 to CONMEBOL 10. There were 11 finals where it was CONMEBOL vs. UEFA and out of those 11, CONMEBOL won 8.

Hope this was a bit interesting to read!

Looking forward to the World Cup 2026 now and how all of that plays out. Many people say that the World Cup is too bloated and I kind of agree, but after making this little analysis I must say that I do like the idea for other continents/associations to get a couple more spots.

Yeah, he was already too old for Qatar.

It was great that he won the world cup because that was definitely his last chance.

That's also why Ronaldo was so upset when they lost, he knew it was his last chance. And signing up with Saudi Arabia was the last nail in the coffin for him.

Regardless of Argentina win or lose in this world cup,  Lionel Messi would not have been playing in the 2026 world cup. He will be too aged by that time.

Lets suppose, Lionel Messi had lost the 2022 world cup final or the Argentine team was not able to reach the finals, would he had not announced his retirement and will be playing in 2026 world cup ?

Although technically he can play, but that wont help the Argentina cause. They would be needing young legs to run around and score for their team. Experience does matter in football but at same time if you are too aged, you won't be able to leave impression on the game.

I doubt if Messi and Ronaldo will be able to participate in the next world cup. Even we call see the effect of age in their performance,  expecially that of Ronaldo.  In the very next four years their performance will be very terrible. They have done enough and achieved enough,  the best thing is to retire.

Especially Messi, he has won the trophy he has always wanted. Messi got everything he has ever wanted in his career, including a whole collection of trophies and individual awards from various prestigious events. slightly different from Ronaldo, he failed to present the world cup trophy for his country. however, Ronaldo is no less great than his toughest rival. these two megastars, it's time to let a new generation appear to carry the big names of their respective countries.

In the Portugal squad, there are lots of young talents who maybe in the next 4 years their skills and experience will be honed even more. meanwhile, Argentina will also regenerate. Reportedly even, Argentina already has a wonderkid who is predicted to be Messi's incarnation, namely Lucas Roman, who is currently rumored to have joined Barcelona. I'm pretty sure, both Messi and Ronaldo will soon retire from their football career before the 2026 world cup is held.

You are absolutely correct, Messi have achieved everything that is achievable in football, and so is Ronaldo as well, I personally can not find any reason why they should still be in the field of play by the age of 39 upwards, it is better to retire so as to give the younger players the breathing space to prove themselves, like I said in my previous comment, they can not play forever, even if they want to, so it is better for them to give themselves rest while the younger seize the opportunity to show what they are capable of.

No worries mate honestly, I had the same impression too and I just figured it out late that CR7 was the older one and not Messi. Well, looks are quite deceiving as they say.

You got some point there, it's indeed fair for the whole team especially the younger ones to cover the lost ground because eventually, Messi and CR7 won't be with the team anymore. But we can't really deny that there are still a good reason why they must retain if they can, however, their minutes will be heavily reduced because it's not their era anymore. For CR7 though, I think he won't be around at that time already as I've just read an article that he and the Saudi Arabia will having a joint bid with the Greece and Egypt to host the next next WC. So, that comes with a lot of preparation.

Yes, you are right, but we can say that one event is statistically insignificant and the more events we take into account, the more accurate the result. In any case, both your methodology and mine, and any other will show the undoubted dominance of Europe.


You can have any opinion, for example that the Earth is shaped like a suitcase or that COMNEBOL can be compared with Europe and conclude that COMNEBOL dominates, but since this contradicts the facts, then you will look ridiculous with such an opinion. Nothing personal   


You pretty quickly went from boldly saying that COMNEBOL is the strongest federation to counting statistics in one match (which ended in a penalty shoot-out) ... Did something happen? 

Right now we are in 2023 and the 2026 world cup starts in 4 years, which is far away, and Lionel Messi is 35 years old. He indeed got reach many achievements with many teams while playing for Argentina and the clubs he was paying there but playing at age of 39-38 in the world cup is not something many players can reach even the most professional players can't perform like the early years and mostly these players prefer to retire before everyone sees them playing for poor performance level compared to other times and I guess Lionel Messi is one these players.

Lionel Messi is very satisfied with his achievements so far in football, he has won almost all competitions either in the league or in international competition with Argentina. So even if he retires later everyone will always remember the historical moment about him. But the 2022 world cup is the pinnacle of his career and with that I think he is done.

Well, what happens is that in South America these things are quite evident, but you don't have to go very far, in the USA, Europe, they are countries that have always had crime problems, the fact that these statistics are hardly shown is something else, In Mexico, what can be most evident is that there is a lot of the problem with the drug traffickers, it is the strongest because they represent a fairly developed force. But in every government, not only in Mexico, but also in the USA and Canada, security measures must be increased to ensure the tranquility and safety of fans from all over the world, it is a worldwide event, they cannot cope with things go wrong.
Football changes a lot, in Qatar we didn't have Italy or Sweden, but that doesn't mean that they won't qualify for the World Cup, between now and 2026 many things can happen, among them it is also known that they expanded the quotas so that more countries can go to the world, this is very good because we can see the debut of many countries, and therefore we can realize that countries have grown so much in soccer, everything is a process that is giving good As a result, there is nothing else to see JAPAN, they calculate that in a period of time they will always be the world champions, so these things are what have to be seen.