Personally, I have now reached the state I need and am not at all looking for any game to bet on. It seems to me that the most difficult thing is to just wait for value games and not bet simply because there are some games. I plan to start with the third games of the Euro group stage, I think by this time the value of the games will be clear and it will be possible to predict with greater accuracy.
You echoed my thoughts. To be fair, if they had 11 men, they might have tried harder to equalise, and then end up losing big anyway. All the same, they were huge underdogs and only lost by a goal. A handicap bet should have been worth at least 3/1.
Value is discipline... which I don't always have. I actually used to be much better when I had a lot of time, I bet with reasonably high frequency only in the season, and then entire off season I don't bet at all. Now I'm even betting on F1...
With KO tournaments, I find value only in qualifiers and the latter stages of the finals. Group stages seem to be the worst -- everyone is too careful, and even ending up third or drawing all the games gives you a chance to playoff. Live betting is where it's at too. Last World Cup was pretty good for me, betting first against the favs, and then on them when/if they went a goal behind.
That is why I plan to start from the third round and if I bet, I will only bet on games where the outcome of the game will mean life and death. If there are no such games (or they are not interesting in terms of odds), then I will look for interesting bets in the playoffs.
Did I understand correctly that you bet against the favorites in the group stage and in the playoffs on the favorites if they started to lead? Or were these some kind of hedging bets in live?