So the big question.
Who is ordering?
Not me. July 2018 estimated delivery is a big bummer
Exactly . i was thinking to buy 1 , but after knowing 2018 . i will not join that
This is my thought as well, if I could pay for it in SIA coin today that I previously mined, I wouldn't feel the hit if it didn't produce.
Since they want to be paid in BTC today with the promise of pay back 1 year from now with now earning or interest gained on the $2500 payout from today is a huge gamble.
I think there is less of a gamble on return if you were to buy $2500 of SIA today and wait a year, it could be argued which would make more money by the time the Asic launches.
I'm a believer in what SIA does but there is not enough incentive to "pre-order" this thing. I could just GPU mine what I can for 12 months and plan on stopping with the Asic hits and see what happens.
I'm still tossing it around in my head right now but the fact I can't pay in SIA coin today is a huge impact to whether or not I will purchase. I already dumped a ton on the Minebox earlier this year and that was only a ~4 month estimated wait.... and I still don't even have that yet or an ETA when it will really ship.
You're making a LOT of sense, Eyedol-X and company. I wish you weren't, but you are.
BUT alas, I AM going to put in an order come Wednesday, good points notwithstanding. Here's MY thinking, and please feel free to explain how foolish and misguided my thinking is...
1) Both the lead time and hash rate could be consservative estimates. Asic manufacturers got fileted when their release dates were postponed. I think Obelisk learned their lesson from their mistakes and out of fear of people like us, gave themselves some cushion. According to their post, it COULD arrive months sooner. For the same reason, it could be more powerful than 100 Gh/s... although it doesn't really matter exactly HOW powerful the ASICS are. So long as they are the only ASICs on the blockchain, and no GPUs can effectively mine SIA, what really matters is how many ASICS get produced and how long before additional Sia ASICS get are built and shipped.
2) i believe in Sia in the long run. If it manages to shoot up in price after the asics are shipped, then (unlike any other coin) the block rewards would not decrease because all of the asics would already be mining it. In effect, anybody who puchases these first batch of asics would have a monopoly to mine SiaCoin no MATTER how much it shoots up in price.
3) Umbrellas don't make it rain, but every other time an ASIC has been introduced to a coin, it has more than 10Xd afterwards. Any and all profitability psuedo-predictions should consider this potential price increase. Asics do not CAUSE price increases in and of themselves, but I do think they are inddicative of stable infrasture / network and a coin with a future.
4) Even if I DON'T want to mine Sia a year from now, I GOT to think there will be a market for this. Top of the line ASICS are rare, especially when the only people who will own them are people who were willing to buy them with a 12 month lead time. baikal cubes are going for thousands pf dollars. Baikal sold them for 780. The novelty, scarcity and demand for alt coin ASICS may make this a resale play.
What do you guys think? Am I way off on this?