Topic: First Asic for SIA - Obelisk SC1 - page 23. (Read 29272 times)

Congrats, You just evaporated $2500. As I said, all numbers/dates were too unrealistic round. Just hope I'm wrong...

I dual mine with a few RXs and 2 1070s, and at this rade I get like 20000+ sia monthly, without sacrificing the hash rate for ETH basically
(except those 2 1070s, which paid themselves out a long time ago).

So, I dont know, by the time ASIC comes out, I'll make 250 000 sia.
Just sayin'.

Haven't decided yet on the ASIC to be honest.

Eyedol-X is a believer!?!?!!! As I live and breath... you saw it here, folks. The full on conversion of Eyedol-X...

I'm happy to say I pre-ordered mine this afternoon. While it's true I could have converted everything over to eth, waited a day, then placed my order a day later, and made a nice profit before buying the same machine... I gotta remind myself not to think that way

Btw any ideas on how to avoid (or benefit from) price fluctuations while coordinating buys like this? I got burned one time when the price of bitcoin keptdropping as I was buying it. On this purchase, I tried to diversify mainly into dash, ltc and then trade into btc at favorable rates. I figured the fiat i was waiting on was a sort of hedge in case btc price went down. In heignsight, since this asic price was denominated in USD, I should have picked up some tether...

Any thoughts? Or maybe this should be it's own thread...

The important thing is that Eyedol is a believer...

I've done a ton of reading over on the SIA Reddit in regards to what's happening with SIA and how the Obelisk is being developed.

With the logic I've already outlined, it still seems to me that I could make more in the short term with simply just buying $2500 in SIA and then dumping it after the price increases in a few months but I realized a few things in my reading:

• I believe SIA is more than a pump and dump coin
• SIA devs, the parent company, and the company engineering the Asic are in the USA

When I think about how I could spend $2500 in BTC today most of those ways are not spending that BTC with a vendor or developer that is based in the USA. Since I live in the USA and I want to see companies like SIA succeed in the USA, it is for that reason alone that I've decided to buy 1 Obelisk for myself. As I already have a Minebox coming and the fact that the Obelisk will help secure the SIA network which in turn gives the architecture of SIA a better chance of being more than just a "pump and dump coin" I simply need to support this venture as well as in the end it, I believe, it will all pay off.

So in summary, in a few hours I'm going to pre-order my Obelisk.

One final point: some posters have claimed that you would be better off buying and holding $2,500 in Siacoin, but I don't think that's accurate. Buying a finite amount provides a finite return. Yes, I think buying and holding would pay out, but with a low energy draw (they claim 500 watt), I think it is possible for this asic to mine indefinitely.

since the Obelisk goes on sale tomorrow, I thought I would talk thru my thought process a little before purchasing one.

Asics are in high demand, especially alt-coin asics. Unlike the bitcoin mining landscape that has seen the introduction of big money players, PetaFlop Bitfury Blockboxes and the like... I think alt coin asics offer an opportunity for lowly individual crypto prospectors to stay competeitive.

Right now there is high demand for the L3+s (bitmain keeps selling out and upping their price) and baikal cubes. I don't think there's enough supply to meet the demand. I don't think this situation is likely to change anytime soon. There are only a few companies (as of now) successfully producing mining hardware.

As more people come into the mining hardware alt coin sector, searching for profitable ASICs, I think it'll only be a matter of time before people stumble upon this Sia Coin ASIC. Then there would be a large demand for them, even if the price of Sia stays flat or decreases.

Obelisk is creating these ASICS in large part bc they are SiaCoin founders / holders. In other words, they're believers. That tells me that it is UNLIKELY a competing company will come out with a competing product anytime soon. Maybe Obelisk will make a 2nd batch, but if they don't, or if that 2nd batch takes a while, or if I am able to preorder from the 2nd batch with Sia mined from the first one... then in effect the owners of these ASICs will have a monopoly on mining this coin... could also dominate any other crypto using the same algo (either now or in the future). IF Sia does explode in price, nobody else will be able to mine it. It'll b strong enough to blow away the GPUs currently dual mining it. Unlike Dash and Litecoin, I don't believe you'll see large computer companies destroying this batch with a better model.

From what I can gather from this thread (and others), many crypto enthusiasts are unwilling to take the risk or wait that long for delivery, which would make SIA mining rarefied are.

 1. Again, that's "investment" not "mining".
 Litecoin at it's low right before the halfing was around $2 for a while - I forget offhand if it dipped under $2 but I think it did at least once.

 2. That's a reasonable point.

 3. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

Here is where I caution your plans -- BTC was the first and no one thought it would take off, sure if you purchased an original antminer back in the day, you could be a millionaire right now but look at how many SIA coins are out there.

I will be surprised if 1 SIA = 1 USD some day, I see it being worth less than 1 USD for quite some time to come, even if SIA takes off like I think it will, the exchange rates will not likely jump significantly for the coins for many years.

However that being said if SIA were to get to say $10 some day, those of us bag holding would be millionaires but that would also mean that the >27.2 Billion SIA coin in the world today would be worth 272 Billion USD making the market cap for SIA 6.5 times the cap of BTC today which is a mere 41 Billion USD...

See what I'm saying? The reality of you becoming mega rich from this Asic is slim to none.

Can you make some profits from it? Yes.

Will it make you millionaire wealthy like BTC did for many? Not likely.

Will people still buy it? You can bet on it.

My Advice if you want to gamble $2500 on SIA is to just go out and buy $2500 in SIA right now. You'll probably make more money in 1 year than you would waiting on the Obelisk.

I probably should have explained my point a little better. Sometimes I post faster than I think. If I didn't, I'd never post anything

1) What I was trying to say was that had you mined with your first generation asics (in btc, ltc or dash), and stacked all of your mined coins, you would have cleared a large progit, regardless of any initial dip in the price of the coin. I believe Litecoin was in the 3 dollar range (maybe lower). I have no idea what Dash was at, but again much lower than today's prices.

2) I believe ASIC MAY BE indicative of a coin's legitimacy. Yes, it does mean that "someone believes there will be enough demand for an ASIC to make it profitable enough to make one", but WHY is there that demand? That demand MAY exist in part for the same reasons that wil drive demand of the coin itself.

3) As for the early bitcoin hardware companies that failed to produce reliable ASICs, or failed to deliver orders on time, and have since bitten the dust... That is ALWAYS a risk, especially with smaller companies with no track record. The people at Obelisk could definitely disappoint... 

Either way, I'll report back... and I'll be sure to leave room for humble pie 

 That is flat out NOT TRUE.

 Litecoin was DROPPING and continued to drop when ASIC were first introduced for it in 2014.

 DASH (X11) was flat and stayed flat for almost a year after the first ASIC was introduced for it last year.

 Bitcoin might have gone up but it was ALREADY climbing by the time the first ASIC showed up for it.

 What ASIC is indicative of is that someone believes there will be enough demand for an ASIC to make it profitable enough to make one - yet quite a few ASIC makers have ended up going bankrupt (KNC and Butterfly Labs are probably the best-known examples of ASIC miner makers that actually delivered product ending up bankrupt, but it's fairly long list that includes the majority of Bitcoin ASIC makers that ever managed to deliver product).

 In fairness, MOST of the ones that went bankrupt did so as the result of overoptimistic promises on "delivery timeframe", though in KNC's case it was *also* at least in part how unreliable their miners proved to be overall due to bad design decisions and poor chip design work.

If no fake then probably a sort of kickstarter to get monet and start project.

Good news.First deliver in 2018 if it is true.Otherway can be fake.

You're making a LOT of sense, Eyedol-X and company. I wish you weren't, but you are.

BUT alas, I AM going to put in an order come Wednesday, good points notwithstanding. Here's MY thinking, and please feel free to explain how foolish and misguided my thinking is...

1) Both the lead time and hash rate could be consservative estimates. Asic manufacturers got fileted when their release dates were postponed. I think Obelisk learned their lesson from their mistakes and out of fear of people like us, gave themselves some cushion. According to their post, it COULD arrive months sooner. For the same reason, it could be more powerful than 100 Gh/s... although it doesn't really matter exactly HOW powerful the ASICS are. So long as they are the only ASICs on the blockchain, and no GPUs can effectively mine SIA, what really matters is how many ASICS get produced and how long before additional Sia ASICS get are built and shipped.

2) i believe in Sia in the long run. If it manages to shoot up in price after the asics are shipped, then (unlike any other coin) the block rewards would not decrease because all of the asics would already be mining it. In effect, anybody who puchases these first batch of asics would have a monopoly to mine SiaCoin no MATTER how much it shoots up in price.

3) Umbrellas don't make it rain, but every other time an ASIC has been introduced to a coin, it has more than 10Xd afterwards. Any and all profitability psuedo-predictions should consider this potential price increase. Asics do not CAUSE price increases in and of themselves, but I do think they are inddicative of stable infrasture / network and a coin with a future.

4) Even if I DON'T want to mine Sia a year from now, I GOT to think there will be a market for this. Top of the line ASICS are rare, especially when the only people who will own them are people who were willing to buy them with a 12 month lead time. baikal cubes are going for thousands pf dollars. Baikal sold them for 780. The novelty, scarcity and demand for alt coin ASICS may make this a resale play.

What do you guys think? Am I way off on this?

This is my thought as well, if I could pay for it in SIA coin today that I previously mined, I wouldn't feel the hit if it didn't produce.

Since they want to be paid in BTC today with the promise of pay back 1 year from now with now earning or interest gained on the $2500 payout from today is a huge gamble.

I think there is less of a gamble on return if you were to buy $2500 of SIA today and wait a year, it could be argued which would make more money by the time the Asic launches.

I'm a believer in what SIA does but there is not enough incentive to "pre-order" this thing.  I could just GPU mine what I can for 12 months and plan on stopping with the Asic hits and see what happens.

I'm still tossing it around in my head right now but the fact I can't pay in SIA coin today is a huge impact to whether or not I will purchase. I already dumped a ton on the Minebox earlier this year and that was only a ~4 month estimated wait.... and I still don't even have that yet or an ETA when it will really ship.

Exactly . i was thinking to buy 1 , but after knowing 2018  . i will not join that

Not me. July 2018 estimated delivery is a big bummer 

So the big question.

Who is ordering?

 1) Sometimes. A LOT of folks lost money on the Gridseed "blade" miners on Litecoin as they were priced too high in the first couple pricing incriments, and litecoin profitability was dropping too fast.
 Folks that went with the later 28nm gear though probably mostly HAVE made their money back, if they kept them running long enough.
 
 Crypto that tanks is a BAD thing in general, as you've already spent a lot of time mining it at the higher diff and then LOSE a lot of your profits. The best option for a miner is a slow but steady price RISE - like Bitcoin did for a while after it hit the low point a year and a half or so ago.
 Second best option is a steady price - like Litecoin for *most* of the last 2 years.
 Basic idea is that you're reinvesting your earnings into MORE hardware to earn MORE money - and you're not going to be able to do much of that if the coin is tanking.
 If you're holding onto the coin, that's INVESTING more than mining and INVESTORS do like to see large price swings.

 2) DOGE has benefited from the last 3 months of "all altcoins get money tossed at them due to the instability of Bitcoin" - there have been NO changes to it's fundimentals and once the current bubble pops for most altcoins I anticipate it crashing hard then slowly fading down into the single-digit or VERY low double-digit Satoshi range again.

Asics will save against %51 attack.  because they will keep %51 of miners themself and sell the %49. In return sia coin will be controlled by a single entity,  which is their goal. Want proof.? Look at the bitcoin  segwit discussions and how bitmain behaves.

Well looks like the Asic is going to be $2499.

Not cheap by any means but not too expensive either.

Supposedly they going to NOT accept SIA as a payment option but will accept BTC.

https://www.reddit.com/r/siacoin/comments/6j1gyg/obelisks_sia_asics_full_details/