First Asic for SIA - Obelisk SC1 - page 20.

darval

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Quote from: ekrififi on July 08, 2017, 02:25:11 AM

June 2018 is the latest the ASICs could arrive, but their development team stated it could be months earlier. Asic production is expensive and complicated. Personally, I think they gave themselves some cushion to avoid another Butterfly Labs fiasco...

But, yeah... it's a long lead time. Probably part of the reason their 1st week presales were a tenth of what they expected. A year is a long time, no doubt... BUT with their batch capped at 4k units, the projected returns forneach unit just more than doubled...

and, as a wise man once said, "the future happens"

I think they (Nebulous Labs) were very surprised by the low volume of actual sales they had. There are probably a myriad of reasons from focussing on the wrong market (they were marketing to SIA users rather than miners) to the long lead time and the overall current slide in the crypto market.

Personally I invested in SC last year and with the increase (before the current slide) I was able to pull out enough capital to expand my BTC miner pool, my GPU pool and buy Obelisks. All while still holding about 1/2 my original investment in SC. I will let the haters hate and take my increased income from my Sia involvement and enjoy.

ekrififi

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Quote from: snowyNNN on July 07, 2017, 08:04:57 PM

"We still plan to ship by June 2018 at the latest" !

So one has to wait a year for this miner possibly ?

June 2018 is the latest the ASICs could arrive, but their development team stated it could be months earlier. Asic production is expensive and complicated. Personally, I think they gave themselves some cushion to avoid another Butterfly Labs fiasco...

But, yeah... it's a long lead time. Probably part of the reason their 1st week presales were a tenth of what they expected. A year is a long time, no doubt... BUT with their batch capped at 4k units, the projected returns forneach unit just more than doubled...

and, as a wise man once said, "the future happens"

ekrififi

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How long do you guys think it'll take for Obelisk to reach their new 4k unit cap? I definitely want to purchase a second asic, but (as always) there are some other crypto opportunities I might want to invest in first.

Eyedol-X

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Quote from: darval on July 07, 2017, 07:36:34 AM

For those who purchased Obelisks, we received this update in email:

Presale Updates Thank you so much for being one of the first to preorder the Obelisk SC1 miner. We received over 1,000 preorders, which has provided us with enough funding to pay for the bulk of the chip design costs. We are so grateful for your trust, and we will work tirelessly to ship your order by June 2018. The 1,000 preorders give us enough funding for the chip design costs, but not enough funding to produce the chips and manufacture completed units. For that, we need to sell a minimum of 2,000 units – and that minimum gives us absolutely no breathing room. We have therefore decided to extend the presale with a cap of 4,000 units. The presale will officially end when we receive payment for the 4,000th unit. We are confident that, by introducing a cap, we will pass the 2,000-unit minimum and gain some breathing room for unexpected obstacles or delays. This extension of the sale does not affect the timeline. We still plan to ship by June 2018 at the latest, and the chip design project is running on schedule. We are still including with each unit a $250 coupon for future batches and a mining exclusivity period of 6 weeks. Additionally, the cap at 4,000 units means that the expected per-unit mining reward during the 6-week exclusivity period will be about 200,000 SC. We hope you understand our decision, and we look forward to hearing your questions and concerns. We recognize that, by ordering in the first week, you deserve some special treatment and recognition. We’ll be sending out exclusive Sia+Obelisk branded gear in the coming weeks. We'll also be increasing your per-unit coupons to $400. As always, you can email [email protected] and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Best, - Team Obelisk

Got this same update as well, looking forward to the 2nd phase of the pre-sale passing that 2000 unit mark to lock in the production.

Interested to see what kind of swag they send out.

snowyNNN

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Pasl [Xci-r.i.p.] Eth Zcl Kmd Zen Rep Xmr Sc Neo

"We still plan to ship by June 2018 at the latest" !

So one has to wait a year for this miner possibly ?

benjy33

legendary

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sia to the moon!!

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: damstr on July 07, 2017, 07:26:17 AM

Quote from: Metroid on July 07, 2017, 05:05:54 AM

Look at the current price, see, is going to hell, know why? because asics are coming, stupid devs. Siacoin will likely never be pumped again, people know this is not a good investment anymore. They are getting out.

Have you looked at coin prices in the last 24 hours? They are almost all red...

I made too much this year on crypto. In the 45% or better tax bracket. (w/state) ..thus it is pick up this or bitmain asic products
or flush it to the IRS.....its like Pacman at my heels....the more LTC price goes up ..the more I have to scamble...

AS to those w/o such an angle..you are braver then myself

Keep this in mind if you see some of us taking a
chance on these guys and going HUH?

darval

member

Activity: 93

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For those who purchased Obelisks, we received this update in email:

Presale Updates Thank you so much for being one of the first to preorder the Obelisk SC1 miner. We received over 1,000 preorders, which has provided us with enough funding to pay for the bulk of the chip design costs. We are so grateful for your trust, and we will work tirelessly to ship your order by June 2018. The 1,000 preorders give us enough funding for the chip design costs, but not enough funding to produce the chips and manufacture completed units. For that, we need to sell a minimum of 2,000 units – and that minimum gives us absolutely no breathing room. We have therefore decided to extend the presale with a cap of 4,000 units. The presale will officially end when we receive payment for the 4,000th unit. We are confident that, by introducing a cap, we will pass the 2,000-unit minimum and gain some breathing room for unexpected obstacles or delays. This extension of the sale does not affect the timeline. We still plan to ship by June 2018 at the latest, and the chip design project is running on schedule. We are still including with each unit a $250 coupon for future batches and a mining exclusivity period of 6 weeks. Additionally, the cap at 4,000 units means that the expected per-unit mining reward during the 6-week exclusivity period will be about 200,000 SC. We hope you understand our decision, and we look forward to hearing your questions and concerns. We recognize that, by ordering in the first week, you deserve some special treatment and recognition. We’ll be sending out exclusive Sia+Obelisk branded gear in the coming weeks. We'll also be increasing your per-unit coupons to $400. As always, you can email [email protected] and we will get back to you as soon as possible. Best, - Team Obelisk

damstr

newbie

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Quote from: Metroid on July 07, 2017, 05:05:54 AM

Look at the current price, see, is going to hell, know why? because asics are coming, stupid devs. Siacoin will likely never be pumped again, people know this is not a good investment anymore. They are getting out.

Have you looked at coin prices in the last 24 hours? They are almost all red...

Metroid

sr. member

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Xtreme Monster

Look at the current price, see, is going to hell, know why? because asics are coming, stupid devs. Siacoin will likely never be pumped again, people know this is not a good investment anymore. They are getting out.

darval

member

Activity: 93

Merit: 10

Quote from: martyroz on July 06, 2017, 11:47:07 PM

Quote from: darval on July 06, 2017, 05:32:55 PM

Quote from: ekrififi on July 06, 2017, 01:47:13 AM

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced. With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more.

Not quite 2.5 * more monthly production - only in a world where GPU's aren't mining Siacoin.
The current network hashrate is 386Th/s. This is equal to 3860 Obelisks.

Agreed. My quick numbers didn't take the GPU miners into account. However I believe that the GPUs will quickly move to other more profitable coins once the ASICs come into play. It won't take many ASICs to start influencing the return from GPUS (making them not competitive) and they can easily move to other coins. This will make the numbers more closely model just a ASIC only mining environment.

martyroz

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Quote from: darval on July 06, 2017, 05:32:55 PM

Quote from: ekrififi on July 06, 2017, 01:47:13 AM

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced. With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more.

Not quite 2.5 * more monthly production - only in a world where GPU's aren't mining Siacoin.
The current network hashrate is 386Th/s. This is equal to 3860 Obelisks.

Say that the network hashrate is 500Th/s (5,000 Obelisks) by the time they are released (not an outrageous estimate)
The original estimate of 10,000 Obelisks = 15,000 total Obelisks of which the ASICs get (2/3)/10,000 rewards = 0.000066% of total reward.
4k cap = 9,000 total Obelisks of which the ASIC's get (4/9)/4,000 rewards = 0.000111% of total reward.
4k cap vs 10k cap = 68% more rewards.

However... if the dualminers stop and the Siacoin network hashrate drops to 200Th/s it becomes;
The original estimate of 10,000 Obelisks = 12,000 total Obelisks of which the ASICs get (5/6)/10,000 rewards = 0.000083% of total reward.
4k cap = 6,000 total Obelisks of which the ASIC's get (2/3)/4,000 rewards = 0.000166% of total reward.
4k cap vs 10k cap = 100% more rewards.

If they sell 2k... (22.5m daily rewards as of April 2018)

Code:

GPU NH  --- reward pu --- SC/d  --- week   --- 30day
100Th/s --- 0.000333% --- 7492  --- 52,447 --- 224,775
200Th/s --- 0.00025%  --- 5625  --- 39,375 --- 168,750
300Th/s --- 0.0002%   --- 4500  --- 31,500 --- 135,000
400Th/s --- 0.000166% --- 3748  --- 26,239 --- 112,455
500Th/s --- 0.000143% --- 3217  --- 22,522 --- 96,525
600Th/s --- 0.000125% --- 2812  --- 19,687 --- 84,375
700Th/s --- 0.000111% --- 2497  --- 17,482 --- 74,925

ekrififi

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Quote from: darval on July 06, 2017, 05:32:55 PM

Quote from: ekrififi on July 06, 2017, 01:47:13 AM

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced. With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more.

There is a bunch of assumptions in these numbers but with 2.5 times less ASICs, the difficulty will not be as high so each miner will produce more coin, etc.

Plus the original number didn't have a cap (it was only a 10k estimate). If they had somehow sold twice as many, it would have been half as profitable. As someone who purchased a couple, I am really happy with the 4k cap as it makes my purchase twice as profitable. Grin

Do you happen to know if they are extending their 1st batch sale indefinitely? In other words, are they just extending their first batch sale another week (with a 4k maximum), or is this first batch sale continuing indefinitely, until they've reached 4,000 unit sales?

They're Twitter feed was a little unclear...

darval

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Quote from: ekrififi on July 06, 2017, 01:47:13 AM

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

You are correct that the original projections about return rate and SC monthly production was based on the estimated 10k ASICS produced. With the new cap being at 4k, this means the initial monthly SC production is 2.5 times more.

There is a bunch of assumptions in these numbers but with 2.5 times less ASICs, the difficulty will not be as high so each miner will produce more coin, etc.

Plus the original number didn't have a cap (it was only a 10k estimate). If they had somehow sold twice as many, it would have been half as profitable. As someone who purchased a couple, I am really happy with the 4k cap as it makes my purchase twice as profitable. Grin

chup

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Me, Myself & I

Quote from: ekrififi on July 06, 2017, 01:47:13 AM

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

As "more profitable" as more "vapourizing" ASIC is. Roll Eyes

ekrififi

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Big news on the obelisk front. They reached 1,030 unit sales, qhich is impressive, but way below their original 10,000 unit goal.

They have now extended their first batch sale a week longer, with a max cap of 4,000 units. I believe their minimum for moving forward is 2,000 units. If they fall below that, they will (supposedly) be issuing refunds according to one of their developers...

If i were them, and I got CLOSE to 2,000 sales, i feel like I would figure SOMETHING out... instead of refunding MILLIONS of dollars. I just... i just couldn't imagine.

But the interesting thing is that if they sell 2000 units, instead of their original 10,000, then (I BELIEVE) these Obelisks would be 5 times more profitable than originally projected... at least before a second batch comes online. If I'm way off on this, please feel free to set me straight.

Yadda yadda blah blah blah, long story short, I'm considering buying another this week. I know antminer just listed their L3+ september batch, but I feel like these might have more upside potential...What do you guys think?

superskillz

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Quote from: ekrififi on July 04, 2017, 11:12:41 PM

Anyone see this Bloomberg piece about Sia?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/digital-coins-are-so-hot-they-re-selling-them-like-an-ipo?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Yeah, read this piece. Sia is one of the few coins with an actual use out there -- once other developers start building friendly applications on top of it, we will start to see its potential.

ekrififi

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Anyone see this Bloomberg piece about Sia?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-15/digital-coins-are-so-hot-they-re-selling-them-like-an-ipo?cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business&utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Searing

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Clueless!

Quote from: Eyedol-X on July 03, 2017, 10:03:56 AM

Quote from: damstr on July 03, 2017, 10:00:35 AM

Quote from: Eyedol-X on July 03, 2017, 07:10:49 AM

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

They are based in the USA....with 4th of July Tuesday tomorrow, they LIKELY have not looked at the order book since say last THURSDAY and split for the weekend.

Anyway, my view on the count sitting at 630 since last Thursday or so

ekrififi

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Quote from: Eyedol-X on July 03, 2017, 10:03:56 AM

Quote from: damstr on July 03, 2017, 10:00:35 AM

Quote from: Eyedol-X on July 03, 2017, 07:10:49 AM

Looks like current pre-orders is 630 as of today.

1370 to go

I feel like that number should be higher.

It probably is, the SIA Dev team has indicated they are manually approving all orders and one of their Devs is doing double duty on updating the Obelisk site.

I can see the sale number being higher because of manual approval and the bitcoin to USD conversion process... However, I don't think it's THAT much higher. I'm thinking the manual approval and conversion lag could account for an additional 50-200 units, but that's not really based on any "actual" information.

The questions I have are:
1) How many units will be sold by the end of this round? - My guess is under 1000
2) How many units will be sold in their second batch? - My guess is their second batch sale will be comparable to their first batch. Tho they'll receive their ASICs at least 6 weeks after first batch customers, 2nd batch customers won't have to wait as long. I imagine the price will be somewhat similar to $2,500... so maybe they'll sell more in a 2nd batch bc of the reduced lead time (and lack of holiday).
3) What is the minimum amount of units they need to sell to insure they follow through with the orders? - 1,200-3000?

TLDR - this first batch order seems like it'll settle around 1000 units sold. The seccond batch should do something similar. That'll bring their total sales for batches 1 and 2 to around 1500-3500 units... Again, this is JUST speculation. But the point is that the Obelisk SC1 becomes a better investment the less people buy them, provided enough are ordered to achieve the required minimum. The fewer units sold, the less mining competition among SC1 owners, the better the investment...

Topic: First Asic for SIA - Obelisk SC1 - page 20. (Read 29240 times)