Topic: ⚽ Football Friendly Match is Hard to Predict - page 12. (Read 1513 times)

We are talking about football here which can be unpredictable in most cases especially in friendly matches. How long have you studied this countries matches recently,you can use their world cup performance to predict a friendly match because no country will play on  high level compared to how they played in the world cup. Not taking the match serious and maybe not all the best players of those countries that will be in attendance on the match day. Football is full of surprises,even the weakest team can win the best team.

To increase the chances of choosing the right bet, it is important to analyze the context of the match, something that may go unnoticed, specially for friendly matches
I'll give you a very simple example that happened to me yesterday: the bookmakers were predicting that France could score many goals against Gibraltar's team, and my choice was less than 5 goals. The result was 3 x 0. Being that France would be a top 3 team in the world today and the opponent would have players that play even in amateur teams
But the context of the game made me believe that France wouldn't play to their maximum, even with their starters players, they have no reason to play trying to win by 6 or 7 goals for example, and besides that the European season is over now, the players are tired

Putting the context in the friendly match, you have to analyze if the team will play to win, if they will play to test some new formation, or if they will test several different or newer players, if they will play with a full stadium or not...
But most of the time the teams use these matches to test.
If you see a match of a stronger team vs a weak one, the stronger will probably do a lot os tests, while the weak have a lot of motivation to win, since they don't play important championships

Look at the case of Brazil vs Guinea, Brazil have one of the top teams, while Guinea will probably play the one of most important matches for them. (but in this case I believe in more than 3 goals for Brazil)

In friendly matches, teams usually play with their substitutes. That's why the favorite teams can't always win these games. In addition, these matches are not very important matches. Football players may have difficulty concentrating in these matches. I think it is very risky to bet on these matches. As the football leagues wrap up the season these days, the options in the match schedule have decreased. It's getting harder to find a match to bet on these days.It may be a better option to concentrate on different sports organizations. We may consider taking a break from betting on football matches or focusing only on matches that are worth it.

In friendly match you shouldn't bet in money line option, but better to bet on draw no bet option and pick an underdog club, so if the result is draw, you wouldn't lose any money. The chance of upset happen in friendly match is high too, that's why I said better to pick an underdog club rather than favorite club. If you think any clubs will try their best to win in friendly match, you're wrong because they only try their new strategy and players.

Brazil will play a friendly today against Guinea against apartheid. Brazil's highest football governing body CBF decided to organize such a friendly match mainly to stop racism. 
Although Brazil is ahead of Guinea in the ledger, the statistics of the two teams are equal in the last five matches. That means these two teams have managed to win only two of their last five matches and lost the remaining three matches.  Vinicius Junior will be in the spotlight in the match against Guinea. Because he is repeatedly subjected to racism and to stand by him, the football governing bodies of the two countries have organized such a friendly match. Hope their friendly match against racism will be useful to stop racism.

I think people know that friendly football matches don't necessarily play with the main squad team that will be sent down to play and it's not because of the problem of playing seriously or not, but most of the friendly matches always field a squad of second-tier players, so sometimes they haven't found a style of play. them so it is difficult to play seriously let alone win a match in a friendly match.

To be honest, I've never been interested in betting on friendly matches because as you can get, the matches won't be as interesting as the championship, so playing as is, let alone playing with a second-tier team squad, and in my opinion, it's really not fun to watch, let alone bet on one of the matches.   

I never bet on these friendly matches, because I feel it is just a waste of good money. There is nothing to play for... and just a fitness event for show. These teams will also not use their best players and simply use these matches to test different combinations of new players and also to test new strategies.

There is also nothing to play for, so they are not playing to the best of their abilities... because they do not want to risk getting injured and not being able to play when it actually counts. 

You are correct, but also wrong. You are correct that 30% to 40% of international friendly matches are under 2.5 goals, but most of the matches are not ending in draw. I have preferred to bet on clubs, not countries. Even I do prefer to bet on club leagues and cup, I do not bet on country leagues like UEFA national league and others like world cup. But as I check what you are saying that it is most of the time under 2.5, that is correct, but over 95% of the recent played friendly international matches were won.

You have idea of friendly matching betting but you missed it somewhere and I also think that is why Op also lost. Friendly match betting is in two types.
1. Nations friendlies
2. Club friendlies
While Nations friendlies always most times end in draw or under 2.5 goals,
Club friendlies end in win and over 2.5 goals. This is the key to succeed in friendly matches bet and it had worked for some times and I am sure it will continue to work.

In friendly matches, the coach has the opportunity to look at the players, what form they are in, how they interact with the team, he can make an unlimited number of substitutions. Such matches for betting are a very bad idea, because it is too difficult to predict their outcome. I don’t know how often they resort to bribery even in official matches, but there is definitely no such thing in friendly matches, because it’s simply pointless. )

That just happened like that, most matches do not end in draw, so are friendly matches, they do not end in draw too. But friendly matches has a disadvantages if you go for one team to win because the team gone for may not play as expected. The best I do choose in friendly match is over 1.5 or over 2.5 because I have noticed that there are always goals in  friendly matches, but sometimes it can end up at no goal scored or under 1.5 or under 2.5 goals scored.

Edit: I am referring to club friendlies, not international friendly. International friendlies are difficult to predict.

Friendly matches are not always taken so seriously, it's like saying anyone can take the win and it's fine either ways, and also there can be easy manipulation at play because it's just a friendly match, this is the type of matches where a team or club can use bribing to get the cup or prize and you as the gambler won't know that this is ongoing.

Find something better and more serious like La Liga or the Champions League, the excitement and fun is like no other, and if you lose your money, at least you enjoy yourself, this is why I will keep saying that gambling is not something anyone should depend on.

That is why I never bet on friendlies as teams do not care for the results,they are only trying different tactics and new players and see how useful they are to the team in official games,friendly games are a testing ground and the only bet I rarely make on them is to bet on both teams to score yes since most teams play care free and usually the concede goals but of course I do this rarely as it still remains a friendly game.

Not all games end in draw but I can assure you that most of the games that are friendlies do not come with the results bookies expect or at least make us expect a win for example from Germany yesterday,so it is the best thing to do to move away from betting on friendly games.

The main purpose of teams in friendly match is to give opportunity for secondary players or even to try different strategy so it is reasonable if it is harder to predict. In my opinion, the best option to do on friendly matches is to avoid 1x2 market. When I have to bet on friendly matches, I would prefer to bet on O/U goals as usually friendly matches ended with more goals than normal matches. Other option is to bet on both team to score, but for sure we need to do more researches about the squad of the teams. Or maybe if available, do live bet after watching 10-15 minutes so you can decide which one is the best to bet.

in friendly matches like this I very rarely choose a strong team or bet on the underdog and more often bet on the Asian Handicap it will be safer for me and it is not a guarantee to stay in a safe position.
but every now and then I also bet on the favored team if it is true that the team has a very strong game, but I bet after a few minutes to see the performance of the two teams' matches.

judging by your predictions, it seems like a safe way to bet on a draw. because friendly matches are like jokes. maybe

Indonesia vs Argentina I predict that there will be a score of 1-0 or even a draw.

The name of the match is "friendly". The clubs will play in a most friendly manner with love and care. In many friendly games, players are not always serious. In some cases, key players will not be featured because of some cheap reasons. Most friendly games are also used for formation and tactical experiments so mistakes always occur. Betting in friendly games is risky and hard to predict because anything can happen. I remember when the national team of my country won against Argentina in a friendly game and we were celebrating the historical win. A few months later, the same team gave our national team to beat our life. After that, it became clear to everyone that the Argentine team was unserious in the friendly game. I don't think I will place a serious bet on a friendly game. Betting on friendly games should be strictly for entertainment.

i have made several bets in friendly matches and what i can conclude is "don't be too serious in friendly betting" ^{(usually friendly matches are deliberately held for political purposes, practicing new strategies)} and usually i will only use small bets.  in the friendly match between argentina vs australia which was held in china, i saw that the match was not going very seriously, if only australia or argentina did the match at full power then i'm sure the match would end in an exciting way but argentina would definitely come out victorious.

To be honest, I have never bet on a match like this, even in a match like an exhibition boxing match, I prefer to skip it because besides that a match like that will never be taken seriously, it is also the type of match that might have been arranged for what should happen because it doesn't affect anything rank or title.
Usually, countries that play friendly matches just want to make their squad more compact, but it will never be taken seriously, so it's better to just ignore it, including the later Indonesia vs Argentina friendly match, doesn't think Argentina will score many goals because they are capable do so, because they might be reluctant to do so out of respect for the home team that invited them to this game.

Friendly matches are always difficult to predict. they sometimes don't play seriously, or some players are on vacation and aren't in the squad.
I usually don't bet on friendly matches, but yesterday when Indonesia faced Palestine, I bet on a draw. and I won the bet. because I know this is difficult so I bet with the smallest bet.

In another friendly match, Indonesia will face Argentina. would you bet on a draw? Argentina is a World Cup champion. I wouldn't think they would draw against Indonesia.

To be honest, I have never made a bet on a friendly match because it will be very difficult to predict and even the outcome is uncertain. Morocco, Germany and Palestine should be able to win all of these matches but indeed, as I said, there is no definite outcome for matches like this. It would be nice if you don't have too much hope on the seeded team that will win the match and if there are other options such as handicap betting, the over/under goal results are more likely for you to make money. An additional note, don't use too much betting money in a friendly match like this.