%25 is for winning 32 btc.
there are 4 possible outcomes.
a) win (10) lose (6) > wagered 16, won 20 - %25 > we are 4 btc up
b) win (10) win (6) > wagered 16, won 32 - %25 >>>> this one is what we want but it may not happen
c) lose (10) win (6) > wagered 16, won 12 - %25 > we are 4 down
d) lose (10) lose (6) > wagered 16, won 0 - %25
As you see your chances to win 32 btc is %25 but also your chances to lose everything is also went down to %25 from %50. Sometimes it is better to think both possibilities
I have a feeling that we are starting to lose track of where we started.
Why do we need to win 32 BTC, in the first place? It's because we lost 31 BTC prior to this point. We were talking about martingale with 1 BTC as initial bet, basically about the following sequence of losses:
1, 2, 4, 8, 16
as a result of which we lose 31 BTC.
So, in this case
BTC wise you are right, you win 32 BTC in both setups ... IF you win. Chances that you do (and reach your 32 BTC target) are way higher in the first setup. In your second setup you have to win both bets, resulting in a chance of 25% (1/2 * 1/2) vs. the 50% chance in the first setup.
Correct me if I am wrong please
In my opinion, you are right. Winning two times in a row with 50% win chance is two times less probable than winning just once with the same win chance.