Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

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Antifragile

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 19, 2013, 03:21:30 AM

Nice to see the price on GOX go up and on HUGE volume/buys, but when there are crickets elsewhere, it is very very worrisome.

There were some large (relative) volume buys on BitStamp as well, so I wouldn't say "crickets". The gap is worrisome, but many are exaggerating the significance. I actually speculate that some are arbitraging the hell out of this, and want to keep doing so.

It's worrisome to those holding GoxUSD and Gox themselves. The rest of us, not so much.

Stamp has shown some strength recently. I'm happy about that.

But, the big buys on Gox has really caught my attention. It seems like big pocketed people (very big) took us from $65 to here. When will they run out?
I really would love to know how much money is in their bank ready for buys. I don't mean money we can see on the orderbook. These big market orders are always unexpected, though they seem
spread out a day here and then two days later there.

Let us not forget that Gox was often equal with Bitstamp. Money might be going into Stamp as we speak, though I suspect it might wait for a pullback, unless they have some inside info...

old_engineer

sr. member

Activity: 387

Merit: 250

With a large, persistent gap between Gox and other exchanges, the only people buying Gox coins are those with fiat already on the exchange. And that's truly scary for the near-term future of bitcoin, as many people believe Gox USD price is a metric of bitcoin value, and will be deeply disappointed by the likely coming crash in Bitstamp value.

I'm sure Karpales has made a graph of the total withdrawal amounts pending vs. time since the withdrawals were suspended. How many USD millions are now pending? 5? 10? 20? Any students of crashes have learned that the build up happens slowly, but when it finally starts, it happens very fast.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: cypherdoc on August 19, 2013, 02:06:57 AM

Quote from: myself on August 18, 2013, 11:55:55 PM

16 USD gap

LOL

$20 gap.

That's fucking ridiculous. My guess is one of these exchange services is intentionally creating the gap so they can force their clients into taking a lower valuation.

Now we go from elation to worry. Nice to see the price on GOX go up and on HUGE volume/buys, but when there are crickets elsewhere, it is very very worrisome. So, they got their coins, but do they want to risk a 20% loss of funds? And the slippage can turn huge as the other exchanges probably can't handle that volume. Or do they just hold? It has been the latter for a while. I don't see large sells at the other exchanges. Sort of like people are saying FU to GOX.

This is a bit like all the chip sales from Yifu's Avalon scam/debacle (which I unfortunately got in on the smaller side), the writing is on the wall...

cypherdoc

legendary

Activity: 1764

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Quote from: myself on August 18, 2013, 11:55:55 PM

16 USD gap

LOL

$20 gap.

That's fucking ridiculous. My guess is one of these exchange services is intentionally creating the gap so they can force their clients into taking a lower valuation.

Wagner2014

member

Activity: 84

Merit: 10

You can by Bitcoin for $90 CAD at Virtex right now. That's about what? $87 USD.

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: dnaleor on August 19, 2013, 01:07:27 AM

19 USD gap Shocked

Think bitstamp will soon break 100 USD

Bitstamp on the daily chart looks very strong. Four hits at that $100 resistance. Looking at $125 after it breaks through.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

19 USD gap Shocked

Think bitstamp will soon break 100 USD

myself

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1000

chaos is fun...…damental :)

16 USD gap

LOL

genuise

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

It is interesting to see while the immediate arbitrage right in orderbooks between mtgox and bitstamp available in 10000 BTC capacity on both exchnages. Although the ~5+% profit will be eaten by cumulative transcation fees.

And keeping in mind all accusations about gox withdrawals nontheless trading is going on and trading volume is big enough. And the price of trades shows significantly bigger profites should they actually realized.

Here you can see the arbitrage calculated on actual trading volumes of last 10000 BTC traded on both exchanges shows that trading price difference between gox and bitstamp is stable thru last 24h at above than 11% and for the last two hours above 12%

byronbb

legendary

Activity: 1414

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HODL OR DIE

genuise

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

if it is meaningless for you it does not mean that the same is true for someone else, right?

Or the whole thread is meaningless or even the whole speculation forum

gog1

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: genuise on August 15, 2013, 06:38:57 PM

mtgox - bitstamp arbitrage history for last 24h

1) Volume of 10 BTC:
arbitrage opportunity in orderbooks (MKT Price %) - 14.109 %
arbitrage realized in trades (VWAP Traded %) - 14.337%

2) Volume of 10 BTC
arbitrage opportunity in orderbooks (MKT Price %) - 14.451 %
arbitrage realized in trades (VWAP Traded %) - 14.522%

2) Volume of 100 BTC
arbitrage opportunity in orderbooks (MKT Price %) - 14.157 %
arbitrage realized in trades (VWAP Traded %) - 14.523%

Interesting that there are also both 1000 BTC Volume and 10000 BTC Volume arbitrage percent visible.
Although MKT Price arbitrage is less than 12% for 1000 BTC Volume.
And for 10000 BTC Volume it even negative for half of last 24hours.

While realized arbitrage in trades shows significant percent for 1000 and 10000 BTC Volume. As high as 14.025 %.

Interesting...

you can't cashed out from gox - or it takes forever - so this is meaningless

genuise

sr. member

Activity: 379

Merit: 250

mtgox - bitstamp arbitrage history for last 24h

1) Volume of 10 BTC:
arbitrage opportunity in orderbooks (MKT Price %) - 14.109 %
arbitrage realized in trades (VWAP Traded %) - 14.337%

2) Volume of 10 BTC
arbitrage opportunity in orderbooks (MKT Price %) - 14.451 %
arbitrage realized in trades (VWAP Traded %) - 14.522%

2) Volume of 100 BTC
arbitrage opportunity in orderbooks (MKT Price %) - 14.157 %
arbitrage realized in trades (VWAP Traded %) - 14.523%

Interesting that there are also both 1000 BTC Volume and 10000 BTC Volume arbitrage percent visible.
Although MKT Price arbitrage is less than 12% for 1000 BTC Volume.
And for 10000 BTC Volume it even negative for half of last 24hours.

While realized arbitrage in trades shows significant percent for 1000 and 10000 BTC Volume. As high as 14.025 %.

Interesting...

gog1

hero member

Activity: 756

Merit: 500

Quote from: ArticMine on August 15, 2013, 11:09:04 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 15, 2013, 06:53:40 AM

... I do not report/file taxes in America and have heard that is fine. ...

I do not know who has given you this advice, but I strongly suspect it is very wrong and very dangerous. I would go straight to the source. http://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/U.S.-Citizens-and-Resident-Aliens-Abroad

As Bitcoin exchanges Bitstamp seems to be the choice for now especially if you are in Europe and can use SEPA. I have not used them myself so I do not have direct experience with them. Here in Canada I use Virtex; however in a somewhat similar and stricter fashion to bitcoin.de one has to be a Canadian citizen resident in Canada to use them. MTGox is currently having a lot of issues with fiat withdrawals, I expect that this will eventually get sorted out especially for currencies other than USD and MTGox will remain a viable and strong business; however there are many on this board that have a very different point of view that is worthy of consideration before risking any funds there.

cavirtex just added a merchant API, I think it'll make the prices there even lower as you have a higher selling demand (I just don't see how most merchants would want to keep BTC instead of fiat).

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: ArticMine on August 15, 2013, 11:09:04 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 15, 2013, 06:53:40 AM

... I do not report/file taxes in America and have heard that is fine. ...

I do not know who has given you this advice, but I strongly suspect it is very wrong and very dangerous. I would go straight to the source. http://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/U.S.-Citizens-and-Resident-Aliens-Abroad

As Bitcoin exchanges Bitstamp seems to be the choice for now especially if you are in Europe and can use SEPA. I have not used them myself so I do not have direct experience with them. Here in Canada I use Virtex; however in a somewhat similar and stricter fashion to bitcoin.de one has to be a Canadian citizen resident in Canada to use them. MTGox is currently having a lot of issues with fiat withdrawals, I expect that this will eventually get sorted out especially for currencies other than USD and MTGox will remain a viable and strong business; however there are many on this board that have a very different point of view that is worthy of consideration before risking any funds there.

Thanks for the advice.

There is a provision on double taxation and not having to pay taxes twice. Germany's tax rate is much higher than in America, so there is little chance of having to owe taxes in America, but point is taken. But after 10 years here, I'm not sure I want to raise eyebrows there. Even if wrong, I have yet to meet a person who has been living here filing taxes in the States.

There is a good discussion on it here and a lawyer (user "anwalt") chimes in.
http://www.toytowngermany.com/lofi/index.php/t29771-15.html

ArticMine

legendary

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 15, 2013, 06:53:40 AM

... I do not report/file taxes in America and have heard that is fine. ...

I do not know who has given you this advice, but I strongly suspect it is very wrong and very dangerous. I would go straight to the source. http://www.irs.gov/Individuals/International-Taxpayers/U.S.-Citizens-and-Resident-Aliens-Abroad

As Bitcoin exchanges Bitstamp seems to be the choice for now especially if you are in Europe and can use SEPA. I have not used them myself so I do not have direct experience with them. Here in Canada I use Virtex; however in a somewhat similar and stricter fashion to bitcoin.de one has to be a Canadian citizen resident in Canada to use them. MTGox is currently having a lot of issues with fiat withdrawals, I expect that this will eventually get sorted out especially for currencies other than USD and MTGox will remain a viable and strong business; however there are many on this board that have a very different point of view that is worthy of consideration before risking any funds there.

myself

legendary

Activity: 938

Merit: 1000

chaos is fun...…damental :)

@facta http://money.cnn.com/2012/05/11/technology/eduardo-saverin-facebook-citizenship/index.htm Grin

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Thanks for the info guys. I wasn't aware of FATCA. I have an unlimited German residency permit and live in Germany now but am still a US citizen. I do not report/file taxes in America and have heard that is fine.
I don't want to give up my citizenship, that has never entered my mind. I love the country, but the government (or is it corporations?) are just destroying what it once stood for.

I understand the US Government is ostracizing it's own citizens both in and out of the country with it's near totalitarian laws. Man, what has happened to this country?

I'm going through the Gox procedure as a backup account. Any recommendations for others, especially considering I'm in Europe? I know of Stamp. If too off topic, just a link please.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 14, 2013, 07:05:49 AM

Quote from: joesmoe2012 on August 14, 2013, 06:26:38 AM

Quote from: mp420 on August 13, 2013, 06:33:50 AM

Any explanation for the high EUR price at bitcoin.de? It's only a couple of euros below Gox's EUR price, while Gox's EUR price seems to reflect EUR/USD exchange rate and GoxUSD price. Isn't there an arbitrage opportunity between bitcoin.de and Bitstamp? Buy at Bitstamp, sell at btcde, rinse, repeat? Of course the depth at btcDE is not that great, but still?

They no longer allow americans on their exchange (if you have a US address, your trading is restricted).

They no longer allow non-german EU residents to trade over 2500 EUR per calendar year (because after 2500 EUR they have to fully verify you and they can only do this currently in germany).

As such there's alot less of the volume sellers who normally buy on different exchanges just to resell on bitcoin.de, but still lots of small volume buyers who are driving the price up (because they aren't effected by the inability to transact over 2500 EUR a year).

I would imagine the volume on bitcoin.de is significantly down as well since the Fidor bank announcement.

Yes, I emailed them about the American thing. I have had an account for a while now and once I updated things and said I was a US Citizen, things were suspended. I emailed them and asked about when they would allow me to trade again. They said maybe in 2 weeks. But I noticed the caps on trades. I don't get it. I have a residency permit in Germany, so I don't want bad treatment regarding this.

I would pay the premium price there (Gox like) as I trust the German banks more than the Slovanian (Bitstamp) banks.

Well, it looks like bitcoin.de might have just cut off their nose to spite their face and they are going to have to adjust their policy as they won't generate enough money. Wink

Actually you can thank the US Government for this. It makes a lot of financial sense for many financial institutions outside the United States to refuse to do business with US Citizens or residents. The reason FATCA and the compliance costs it imposes on those institutions. I would go as far as saying that I would not be surprised if MTGox ends up "solving" its withdrawal problems by simply refusing to do business with US Citizens or residents. The problem is far wider than Bitcoin. The bottom line here is that the US government has effectively turned ex-pat US Citizens into financial pariahs all over the world.

jubalix

legendary

Activity: 2632

Merit: 1023

I cant quite get over gox said 2 week until withdrawal will be fixed, no usd withdrawals, but hey money can still come in as fast you want.

two weeks go and then what, essentially perma withdrawal problems

How hard can this be? you would get a new bank or system that could cope.

One wonders at how long this can keep up. Gox must either solve the problem, or its over. You have to start thinking about fractional reserve going on, for both USD and BTC.

Go long, and by long I mean 3 years+. Ride this all out.

Topic: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx (Read 8589 times)