Topic: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx - page 4. (Read 8589 times)
I've been tossing and turning all night thinking about this. Let me do some math out loud here.
I can deposit $10,000 to my Dwolla account and then deposit that to my CampBX account = $9999.75
Using current numbers I can buy $9999.75 worth of Bitcoin $89.53 = 111.69 BTC - 0.55% fee = 111.08 BTC
Transfer to MtGox = 111.07 BTC
Sell on MtGox for $95.99 = $10,661.61 which is a $661.61 profit
Then I can wire transfer out for a $25 fee, right? Leaving me with $10.636.61 for over $600 profit? I'm unaware of any other way to get USD out of Gox into my bank account. Gone are the days of Dwolla transfers for 25 cents. However, when you deal with $10k a $25 transfer fee ain't shit, right?
Why isn't arbitrage killing this huge spread? I don't get it. I am HORRIBLE at math, literally horrible, but is this not a sure fire way to make money? You could even rinse and repeat, right!?
I can deposit $10,000 to my Dwolla account and then deposit that to my CampBX account = $9999.75
Using current numbers I can buy $9999.75 worth of Bitcoin $89.53 = 111.69 BTC - 0.55% fee = 111.08 BTC
Transfer to MtGox = 111.07 BTC
Sell on MtGox for $95.99 = $10,661.61 which is a $661.61 profit
Then I can wire transfer out for a $25 fee, right? Leaving me with $10.636.61 for over $600 profit? I'm unaware of any other way to get USD out of Gox into my bank account. Gone are the days of Dwolla transfers for 25 cents. However, when you deal with $10k a $25 transfer fee ain't shit, right?
Why isn't arbitrage killing this huge spread? I don't get it. I am HORRIBLE at math, literally horrible, but is this not a sure fire way to make money? You could even rinse and repeat, right!?
mtgox 97
bitstamp 87
btce 86
campbx 90
lol
bitstamp 87
btce 86
campbx 90
lol
Over the last 24 hours to me it looks like we are seeing co-ordinated buying in Gox and dumping on BitStamp at > 10% slippage, not to mention using market sell orders on Bitstamp thereby increasing the slippage. It's happening again as I speak. Either someone is suddenly getting more nervous about their fiat on Gox or perhaps they know something.
Watch with interest ...
The other interesting thing to note is that this fiat on Gox could buy and hold and move the coins of exchange if they were confident in medium term price outlook.
That they are not is a worrying sign in iself IMO. A sign of the impending demise of Gox and the impact it will have on confidence and price.
Just my opinion ... I have no facts to back it up, just watching the unusual price action and speculating as to motive.
Interestingly, the last buy order on BitStamp was a market buy ... probably from an arbitrageur who had sold on Gox. I bet if he had stuck a bid in and waited, it would've got hit ...
Watch with interest ...
The other interesting thing to note is that this fiat on Gox could buy and hold and move the coins of exchange if they were confident in medium term price outlook.
That they are not is a worrying sign in iself IMO. A sign of the impending demise of Gox and the impact it will have on confidence and price.
Just my opinion ... I have no facts to back it up, just watching the unusual price action and speculating as to motive.
Interestingly, the last buy order on BitStamp was a market buy ... probably from an arbitrageur who had sold on Gox. I bet if he had stuck a bid in and waited, it would've got hit ...
Well, the price proves the withdrawal problems are not over.
And indeed I did not receive my EUR withdrawal from mtgox ordered many weeks ago via 'international transfer'.
But haven't Gox always been really slow with withdrawals? I've heard of cases where money has taken over a month to arrive.And indeed I did not receive my EUR withdrawal from mtgox ordered many weeks ago via 'international transfer'.
QED. People are reluctant to send their coin to Gox to trade for Fiat because it is extremely difficult to actually take possession of the Fiat. A continuously rising percentage of small trades appears to be leaving Gox for other exchanges. The whales are still there because no place else can really accommodate them. Yet.
Q: Why would you sell on Bitstamp when Mt. Gox is 10% higher, and has just moved up 5% without Bitstamp moving?
A:
1. You don't really like money all that much
2. Once a bear, always a bear
3. Manipulation
4. Retardation
A:
1. You don't really like money all that much
2. Once a bear, always a bear
3. Manipulation
4. Retardation
Care to explain how price could be manipulated in this way? I honestly have no idea, I'm just another dumb sheep new to this whole thing.
And even if the majority of users are retards (which I doubt) all it takes is a handful of people with a lot of fiat to see the profit opportunities and buy a shitload of coins from Bitstamp to sell at Gox and make easy money on the gap, thus closing it more and more in the process.
Or am I missing something here? Simply trying to apply logic but it doesn't add up.
Well, the price proves the withdrawal problems are not over.
And indeed I did not receive my EUR withdrawal from mtgox ordered many weeks ago via 'international transfer'.
But haven't Gox always been really slow with withdrawals? I've heard of cases where money has taken over a month to arrive. And indeed I did not receive my EUR withdrawal from mtgox ordered many weeks ago via 'international transfer'.
I don't think I have ever seen the prices so close on Bitstamp and BTC-E
aye 85.22 and 85.49 atmI think Bitstamp is being hammered by sellers who want fiat. CampBx might have the most accurate price at present.
I don't think I have ever seen the prices so close on Bitstamp and BTC-E
aye 85.22 and 85.49 atm sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Interesting, I thought the Gox gap was closing a few days ago (it was only around $5 to Bitstamp) but now it's growing again.
Any speculation as to the cause of this? Withdrawal hiatus is over, surely price should be equalizing by now?
Any speculation as to the cause of this? Withdrawal hiatus is over, surely price should be equalizing by now?
Well, the price proves the withdrawal problems are not over.
And indeed I did not receive my EUR withdrawal from mtgox ordered many weeks ago via 'international transfer'.
Interesting, I thought the Gox gap was closing a few days ago (it was only around $5 to Bitstamp) but now it's growing again.
Any speculation as to the cause of this? Withdrawal hiatus is over, surely price should be equalizing by now?
Any speculation as to the cause of this? Withdrawal hiatus is over, surely price should be equalizing by now?
Q: Why would you sell on Bitstamp when Mt. Gox is 10% higher, and has just moved up 5% without Bitstamp moving?
A:
1. You don't really like money all that much
2. Once a bear, always a bear
3. Manipulation
4. Retardation
Interesting, I thought the Gox gap was closing a few days ago (it was only around $5 to Bitstamp) but now it's growing again.
Any speculation as to the cause of this? Withdrawal hiatus is over, surely price should be equalizing by now?
Any speculation as to the cause of this? Withdrawal hiatus is over, surely price should be equalizing by now?
I don't think I have ever seen the prices so close on Bitstamp and BTC-E
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edit:nvm u fix it
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