Topic: Gap Observer mtgox / bitstamp / btc-e / campbx - page 3. (Read 8589 times)

The gap makes sense;

The Gox price is artificially high because they cannot process withdrawals in a timely manner (up to 3 months in many cases).

As many people need funds that are in their account or are afraid the cumulative effect of slow withdrawals and many other problems Gox have had recently could spell the end for Gox, they are forced to transfer their Fiat into Bitcoin creating + rise in value on the exchange. The opposite effect (- effect) happens on all other exchange as the coins flow into them for sale.

There's no money to be made from arbitrage the prices aren't random on each exchange it's just a reflection of the above. If you monitor the difference in price between say btc-e and bitstamp there's a pretty consistent $1 diff or 1/88= 1%.

The 1% difference on these exchanges possibly reflects the higher cost (1%) of depositing money onto Btc-e

Gox customer service is worryingly don't give a fuckish with a bit of sarcastic "Dear valued customer" thrown in for spitish reasons (possibly staff know they're soon to be unemployed and don't like taking shit from pricks like me!!). I really wouldn't risk your money trying to Arb from exchanges to Gox you stand to make 5-10% as a one off if they don't go out of business and they get their problems sorted. I'd say there's a 25% if you're going to leave money there over the next 3 months you could lose it all.

Bitcoin24 some, but most, probably 80%, not yet and largest account is still frozen. Chances are high it will be returned but until then, it's not.

ppl got fiat back from bitcoin24 and bitfloor, that's the advantage when you deal with fiat it can be reverted and it leaves more traces than blood 

Yeh.. But what happens when you never receive the Gox payment?

Gap between CampBX and Gox has been narrowing all day.  Currently only $1 difference.  Other exchanges not following that trend, however.  Anybody care to post another gap graph?  I don't know where you are getting them.

Yeah 10% spread between CampBX and Gox right now.  Madness.

again 10% gap

The spread gonna go up uP UP.

Watch out for 100% premiums as gox curls it's death toes.

But all the slow withdrawal process means is delayed profit. If you have a lot of capital even doing this once will earn you quite a bit which you'll have in a month or two. I'd sure do it if I had access to that kind of money to spend on BTC.
Or has trust that Mt.Gox will pay you at all already died?

Hey, I think we are actually largely in agreement ... something does not seem to quite add up right now and the gap seems unnaturally large.
Further than that, anything I say is pure speculation and I have no idea of the reality of the situation

You are right ... Gox solvency vs holding BTC may be a tough call for some as clearly there are insufficient bids on BitStamp to provide a clean exit for those with large fiat balances on Gox

The last large buy on MtGox was about 8k IIRC, dumping this on Bitstamp would drive the price down to 60, which is insane for just one day.
And the dumps on Bitstamp started before this last large buy on MtGox. Something does not make sense.

We've seen ~1k buys/dumps!

So you're telling me that there are people who think that the risk of cashing out via MtGox is greater than the risk of holding large amounts of BTC through one of the greatest bubble crashes in history?

You may be right, but it just doesn't ring true to me. I think most BTC holders are further along the risk/reward curve than that.

I can understand a gap -- but I think the gap is unnaturally wide. People shorting on bitfinex accounts for some of the gap but not all. The dumps we saw earlier today reminded me greatly of previous irrational dumps we saw on Gox. Anyway, we'll see...

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2786714
And check several other threads in service discussion

Draw your own conclusions, but it seems 'flowing' is not the right word. 'Trickling' perhaps. I think your month would be very optimistic. Bear in mind that you are also taking on serious counterparty risk during this time. Your % profit is simply betting on the probability of Gox becoming insolvent over that (unknown) time frame. That's the trade.
If I were you, right now, I would be factoring in a 3 month wait time. Just a guess ...

EDIT : I do not have an agenda here, I am merely stating my opinion of things as I see and interpret them. YMMV

^This. The selling pressure on BitStamp is IMO irrational.

I thought the wire transfers were flowing again.  People were posting proof of transactions into their bank accounts.  To answer your question I would be willing to wait a month for a 6% profit to get bank into my bank account.  What if I could rinse and repeat 12 times a year?  Would that be a 72% profit for the year?  What other old-ass traditional stock, commodity, ETF, bond, forex trading, etc can net you that??

that can be a problem

Good luck getting your $ withdrawal processed by Gox 
How long are you prepared to wait for your *possible* rinse and repeat ?

Because your usd wire transfer from mtgox may cost only $25, but it's not arriving! (from what I hear here, and the huge widening spread confirms that)

Ofcourse if it is arriving, rinse and repeat!