I'm hoping that someone can help point out the flaw in my "man maths" as I want to buy one of these units but I can't make the numbers stack up and so I
assume I've made a mistake and hence I hope someone can point it out.
Using the formula
(MH x P x BTC x A) - C = profit over 1 year
where
MH = power of the unit in MH/s - 5.2 for the new blades
P = Profitability (BTC per MH/s per day) - currently running at around 0.004-0.005 at Waffle Pool
BTC = Price of BTC. Here I'm going to assume 2 levels; 300 as the worst case and 500 as the current ceiling.
A = Availability - I'm going to assume 10 days down time in the year which might be a bit aggressive but these things are meant to be fairly "fiddle free" so I shouldn't have to mess around with them to the same extent that I do with my GPU rigs
C = Cost to purchase. Note I am not including electricity etc as I am using the hosted model however it would be fairly easy to add it in for other options.
I am basically varying the level of P to check out how low the market can drop before the units fail to make a profit in a year. A year is a long time in BTC mining it seems to that's another worry. I am expecting profitability to take a hit when the big scrypt ASIC units hit and there seems to have been a drift down in this value already. I am not sure that I subscribe to the theory that it will drift down to a point where massive numbers of people drop out and the rise as a result as I suspect people will continue to mine after it is no longer profitable through a combination of hope (that it will turn around), inertia (can't be bothered), ignorance (don't know where the threshold is) and faith (belief in crypto is more important than cash + mine and hold).
As you can see from the numbers below (converted into £ as I am in the UK) at the lower end of the BTC value the blades don't make anything and at the upper end the market only has to drop to 0.0035 before they fail to make money! Where am I going wrong or is buying one of these basically a $3K bet that the market will rise?
Thanks
Miles
compared to today's profitability | Prof level | Grid Min | Grid max | Blade(GAW) Min | Blade(GAW) Max |
1.25 | 0.005 | -£420.07 | £1607.17 | -£133.25 | £931.57 |
1.125 | 0.0045 | -£724.16 | £1100.36 | -£292.97 | £665.36 |
1 | 0.004 | -£1028.24 | £593.55 | -£452.69 | £399.16 |
0.875 | 0.0035 | -£1332.33 | £86.74 | -£612.41 | £132.96 |
0.75 | 0.003 | -£1636.42 | -£420.07 | -£772.13 | -£133.25 |
0.625 | 0.0025 | -£1940.50 | -£926.88 | -£931.86 | -£399.45 |
0.5 | 0.002 | -£2244.59 | -£1433.69 | -£1091.58 | -£665.65 |
0.375 | 0.0015 | -£2548.68 | -£1940.50 | -£1251.30 | -£931.86 |
0.25 | 0.001 | -£2852.76 | -£2447.31 | -£1411.02 | -£1198.06 |
0.125 | 0.0005 | -£3156.85 | -£2954.12 | -£1570.75 | -£1464.26 |
0.0625 | 0.00025 | -£3308.89 | -£3207.53 | -£1650.61 | -£1597.37 |
0.03125 | 0.000125 | -£3384.91 | -£3334.23 | -£1690.54 | -£1663.92 |
0.015625 | 0.0000625 | -£3422.92 | -£3397.58 | -£1710.50 | -£1697.19 |
Edited to correctly format the table (done with search and replace in word with some excel formula to sort the £ and red text)