Topic: GAW ZenCloud ZenPool Hashlet - does it really exist? ALWAYS MAKE MONEY :-) - page 98. (Read 262935 times)

That is why I say this whole thing smells a lot like the original Ponzi with the stamp scheme.  It makes sense for a few thousand, but when you multiply that to millions, the whole things falls apart.  We will see.

I think I posted in response to one of the "datacenter" pictures that the hashlet idea looks like a massive preorder for filling up said datacenter. I'm still not quite sure where they would put the amounts of hashrate they claim to have sold. Only Bitcoin network could possibly support that, any other coin - even LTC - would be 51%-ed. Or maybe that's where the "coin development team" comes in.

I would find it more believable if they didn't have their shills and moderators hyping up the prices in their own forum... it's starting to sound uncannily like so many shitcoin pumps right here on bitcointalk.

Well, I guess I'll have to wait and see what happens next, since I still can't get rid of my stupid "fury".

We are saying the same thing sort of.  I mean that either (A) GAW has a datacenter with actual miners somewhere that are mining at the pools as directed by the aggregate of all hashlets (e.g., if there are 1,000,000 mhs in hashlets pointed to Clevermining in the aggregate, then GAW has to have mining hardware at its datacenter that in the aggregate mines at least 1,000,000 mhs at Clevermining at a given point in time), or (B) if (A) is not true, then GAW is merely a fraud/ponzi scheme.  Note that you can have a ponzi scheme that engages is real economic activity; the original Ponzi scheme involved arbitraging postage stamps between Europe and the U.S. , but it collapsed because there were not enough stamps to support the number sold through he ponzi scheme which is exactly what I worry about with GAW/Zenwhatever.

 If the underlying model is (A) (not ponzi), then somehow GAW has to acquire (on a continuous basis) new ASICS to keep ahead of the market.  There are some very large players in this industry where a few million dollars is nothing but a drop in the hat.  How would GAW keep ahead of bitmain, KNC, innosilicon, gridseed, etc?  How many major ASIC developers have failed to deliver product that is competitive even with millions of dollars in R&D (Black Arrow, KNC, Cointerra, to name just the most recent flameouts).  GAW has never purported to be an ASIC developer, and I would never believe that even if they said they were.  GAW claims to have *relationships* with ASIC companies and claims to be able to use market power to get the best deals.  THAT I believe.  However, even the best deals cannot compensate for late deliveries, missed power targets, and/or competitors who get out there with better more efficient ASICS.

What is true is that the next crop of ASICs looks to be coming in December, at a price point of about $5 per mhs (scrypt).  At least one manufacturer will have some limited support for Scrypt-N.  Assuming GAW has preferred pricing and will be first in queue (a possibility given the number of hashlets they have sold), there is an opportunity for GAW to profit by making large scale ASIC purchases at say $4/mhs delivered in December-January by selling hashlets NOW for $49.  Essentially the $49 price subsidizes losses until GAW can take delivery and bring up the new cheaper ASICS.

But how long can that continue?  It is really a one or two trick pony.  And, the more folks who bail out now at $20-40, the less money GAW has to capitalize on this.  E.g., GAW needs capital to make hashlets work.  Hence my predictions.

Yes, I think that something like this has to happen so that GAW and its resellers can recover from the payouts they have to make to folks like me who sold out.  It is also a classic example of price segmenting .. if 5 people are willing to sell at 20 or buy at 16, another 5 are willing sell at 30 or buy at 25, another 5 who will want to sell at 40 or buy at 30, etc.  And 50% of the market will just buy at whatever price so long as it is perceived as a "market" price.  What do you do?  To maximine profit, you need to buy out the folks who would sell below your mark BEFORE you establish the market.  By eliminating all those who would sell below $49, GAW ensured that the market, when it opens, will be able to keep a stable $49 or higher price point at least for a while.

Genius At Work as they say.

What makes you think that primes are real hardware? I think it's pretty obvious those are shares and not connected to any hardware.
GAW does all the mining for themselves and pay you out as if you were mining, based on the performance of your virtual hashlet (prime). It doesn't matter what they are mining.

And who knows if they haven't started getting into ASIC's for other algos (individual, not multi algo ASICs) months ago. Who's to say that some newer algos are not much simpler to develop than it is for scrypt? They don't have competition and they don't need to aim for the skies, just beat CPU/GPU mining with a large enough margin. Not likely, but possible.


I doubt they are going to sneak primes in to the market. Obviously they can't just leak a massive amount of them and they do take 10% of every transaction which works better long term.

Oh, you hit the nail right on the head there. That way everyone on hashtalk can keep drinking the GAW koolaid even well after the ship is sunk and all their money is gone.

Speaking of doublespeak...

Which is it now -

This:

https://hashtalk.org/topic/11330/hashlet-primes-discontinued/265


or this:

https://hashtalk.org/topic/11092/comments-that-we-have-too-many-bugs

The "halt" of Prime sales to me sounds like doublespeak for "we wanted to increase the price but that might be unpopular". So if we remove Primes from the official sites and hype them enough to increase the demand to drive up the prices in the marketplace, can we inject new Primes quietly into the marketplace at >$50? I have no idea if that would work, but I'm already seeing bold price predictions on HT, including of course "moderators".

So, to recap.  No specifics.  Lots of promises in coming weeks.  And, surprise, you can "reverse" your decision to sell if you want back in (thus restocking the likely low supply of BTC).  I will pass and keep my newly returned BTC safe in my encrypted wallet, thank you.

Lets take a more critical look at some of the statements in Josh's post and promises for the "next few weeks" to see how they hash out when considered rationally (with my predictions just for the record).  GAW fanboys may want to stop reading now.

1) "Hashlet Primes paved the way for targeting multiple algorithms ..."   Really?  Presumably Josh meant this to be a "to come" feature since it never has existed in Primes or any other hashlet.  Josh also said "like mining X11 and even more algorithms" in the future.   Actually, Gridseed is the only company to date that has released a chip that could target multiple algos AFAIK and as cool as that was (I have 60 of them, I know!) none fo the gridseed dual miners ever ROI'd because targeting multiple algos is a bad idea.  Unless the algos are very close (like moving from scrypt to scrypt-N for N < 3-4), it will only double or quadruple the size and power hungriness of the chip, and increase cost versus a single algo chip.  That is the lesson gridseed learned and it is lesson that applies across any platform.  E.g., it is always going to be more cost-effective to design and build and operate a single algo chip versus a multiple algo one.  And, even with a multiple algo chip, you would need to ROI before the algo becomes saturated with miners - and then keep designing new algo/chips.  This just isn't possible in the ASIC world.   

Now, some poor soul is probably going to rejoinder that hashlets are something new - they aren't asics so they aren't bound by the economics of ASIC manufacturing.  Bollocks.  Underlying the hashlet universe there can only be one of two things: (a) ASICS, or (b) a fraud/ponzi scheme.   There is no unicorn hasher, no santa clause, and no miracles.  If GAW figured out how to perform computations (of any kind) at faster than ASIC speed, they would be revolutionizing general purpose computing, information processing and every other area of life rather than messing around in the backwaters of alt-coins. 

Assuming that GAW is legit and not a ponzi, the only realistic possibility is that multi-algos is a business/virtualized solution, not a technology one.  What I mean is that the only way to achieve what Josh is proposing is buying buying several different ASICs, each designed for a different algo, and then allowing primes to access each of them.  If that is what Josh has in mind, it is not going to work IMHO because it will mean that GAW will need to purchase multiple ASICS for EACH prime customer - and with no new investment since primes are supposedly going off the market!  how will that happen?  Who will fund those new ASICS targeted to multiple algos? 


2) "I’m talking features like dramatically reduced maintenance fees."  Okay, but this was promised for the original primes too.  To date, no reduction.  So now, Josh wants prime owners to wait a little longer so its a new feature?!  I get that massive virtualization and centralization in a data center can reduce costs, but you cannot reduce costs beyond the electricity cost.  And those Gridseed and Zeus machines that GAW was chock full of only a month ago are horribly inefficient.  The only way costs can be further reduced is by purchasing new machines with new more power-efficient asics.  But that requires capital, big capital.  It is very hard for me to believe that the cost of primes - which is $16 for a large number of prime owners - is enough for GAW to fund 2 round of acquisitions of ever more power efficient ASICS (much less the continuous hardware upgrade and replacement that would be required to consistently improve efficiency as promised). 

3) "I’m taking features like mining multiple coins."  Presumably he means merged coin mining, which is already a reality in some pools.  A great idea, and one that ever cloud based system should be doing, but not groundbreaking and not exclusive to GAW.

4) "and perhaps even exclusive access to ASIC proof ones!"  Now we are in Unicorn Hasher territory.  An ASIC proof algo is designed specifically to require resources (mostly memory) that cannot be easily scaled.  While I suppose GAW could set up a bunch of workstations with expensive GPUs in a datacenter, that would not provide the efficiency and scalability that GAW needs to offer to make it profitable. 

All of this points to the need for GAW to bring in even more BTC (or LTC) to support buying more and more ASICS and machines so that it can offer all these cool new features (this, assuming GAW/Zencloud is not merely a ponzi and is actually conducting mining in rough correspondence to the purported mining rates of the hashlets it is selling).  Since it isn't selling Primes anymore (allegedly - see below Predictions), how can GAW bring in the necessary capital (or if a Ponzi, how can it bring in the next round of investors?  interestingly, same problem regardless).

Predictions.  The following is pure speculation.  I will probably get some wrong, but I bet I get the gist of it right.

A) GAW will start to offer a new product through hashbase that will offer many of the features Josh has promised for Primes such as multiple algos and reduced cost.  These new hashlets (or maybe some other name under hashbase) will be more expensive than solos just as in the case of Zen Hashlets.   Just as with Zenhashlets, the new hashlet or hashbase-let will be just as profitable as prime hashlets so people will think they are getting a bargain when they pay $25 or so more mhs.  Prime owners will have the ability to upgrade to the new hashlet for free so that promise will be kept, but only if the prime owner is willing to take a ride on the new hashlet train and convert to the new hashlet schema.

B) The new hashlet (or whatever it is called) will lack one important feature - it will not have a market and private sales (except through resellers of course) will be banned.  GAW will probably justify this by saying that having a market encouraged speculation and whiners like me to take down morale.  Or maybe they will cite concerns about security or fraud.  So no more sales.  This is essential to enable GAW and its resellers to market new hashlets -- otherwise, the "used" hashlet market will set a market price that will be lower than what GAW/resellers sell for.  Resellers (and the moderators who speak for resellers on hashtalk) will love this.  There will be shill accounts (most likely resellers) who will applaud GAW for getting rid of the buggy and problematic market.  Anyone who questions it will be downvoted out of existence on hashtalk.

C) GAW may keep its promise not to create new Prime hashlets, but a large number of prime hashlets will mysteriously become available possibly through resellers or the market.  Since hashlets are virtual anyway, GAW or its resellers could have millions in virtual inventory and still be truthful when saying no new primes will be created.  Now that GAW has cleared out all of the whiners like me who wanted out at a lower price, they may be able to support a higher price in a market for a while and keep selling them directly via the market or indirectly via resellers.

D) GAW will, eventually, shut the whole project down when the SEC and/or FTC get involved and start asking questions.  GAW will blame government regulations for the reason for shutting down, saying that the U.S. is out of touch with the next big thing but that, they have to comply and that means shutting down.  This will only happen when sales of new miners plateau.
B)   

So I stepped away for a few hours and EVERYTHING CHANGED^TM while I was napping doing something extremely important.

Ok let's see if I got it right.

https://hashtalk.org/topic/11343/hashbase-approaches

Hashlet is coming to your friendly neighborhood Walmart:


GAW is now in the banking business (well, expanding it beyond hashpoints):


... and in the PND business:


More games coming too:


We now know where the development resources went the last few weeks:

https://i.imgur.com/GS3xXCO.png

(why is Gava two-faced - no idea).

Full text if you don't trust my insightful analysis:

Called it. At the end of the day they are an ASIC company and with the lack of transparency they preserve I wouldn't be surprised if they were mining other algos for a long time now.

if you sell your primes now you are acting wreckless. Whether you believe in GAW or not the new announcement will ensure these primes are worth top dollar very soon. Selling them prematurely is just plain stupid. If you do not like the direction GAW is going sell them once the marketplace opens and you will be able to get a lot more than 30-40

lol so you glad you got out of the ponzi scheme but you are now buying cheap multi hashlets. did i miss something not being a dick so please noone get pms troll on me nothing worse than a pms troll bitching lol

Yeah, they spent last week on bitcoin conferences with the whole staff, making new deals because they are some kind of scheme. That was boring 3 months ago. Try saying something new once in a while.
Great that people like you are getting out - less whining.

Yes, I got out completely.  Over 400 mhs sold and cashed out in transferred BTC almost immediately after I saw the announcement. 

I did not pay much attention to how much ROI I did or did not receive and mostly it could not be calculated anyway.

Most of my primes were converted from gridseed units that I bought for much more than $20 per mhs.  I also had a good number of GAW/Zeus miners that I converted.  I bought others for $16 when they were offered originally (on the first day in fact).  I received between $20-29 per mhs but I have zero idea how they calculated my "earnings".  There is not enough info in the account info area to be able to tell what my ROI is without a LOT of work, and some of the miners I converted I paid $40 per mhs for. 

I am sure I ROI'd however I am equally certain I did not get 250% ROI on average.  Probably a pretty decent ROI in any case.  I am more convinced than ever that zencloud is a ponzi though, that is why I am getting out now.  I am equally sure that GAW will throw something attractive out there next.  They will need new infusions of BTC to keep the system going.

I am also 100% certain I would have made more money if GAW had allowed primes to be sold - I had many offers above 26 per mhs before the sales were banned. I think GAW had to shut that down because why would anyone pay $49 when they could get them on the market for $26-30? 

Anyway, this Prime saga is now mostly over for me.  I have been buying up cheap multihash hashlets because I am gambling that GAW will upgrade them (and so far the other hashlets are saleable on the market).

   

How much did your primes go for eightcylinders?


wait--so can you really sell your primes for $40 minus what you have earned with no wait and no difficulties? (other than being unable to withdraw BTC ATM =/)

Anyone who bought at $16 now gets a 250% payout?

So GAW announced that Primes are discontinued immediately.  He also urged people not to sell because something "big" is coming in a few hours (heard that before, lol).

Of course, Primes are still available at GAW's web site.  I went all the way to checkout with 500 Mh/s in Primes in case anyone out there still believes in GAWd.  I don't so I did not checkout of course.

Sounds to me like they badly need some more BTC so they can unfreeze the withdrawal system.

That is the problem with ponzis.  Constant need for new money creates big problems when early investors cash out.

Fck. thanks for the info.. guess i'll be waiting on these retards yet again.

Edit. i tried 10 mins after, so you beat me by 20 mins. F***K!!

I sold all my primes and withdrew my BTC immediately.  About 10 minutes after I withdrew my BTC, they froze the withdrawals.  Saw that coming!!! Sorry for those of you who are stuck.