GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer - page 40.

Cconvert2G36

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Quote from: Alley on May 01, 2015, 09:17:21 PM

New statement from Barry.

“Everyone wants to know when they can start trading — this is the Bitcoin Investment Trust, symbol GBTC. There were many, many steps along the way to be a publicly-traded vehicle, and I’m very proud of my team and all of the lawyers that got it done. But, we’re done. So essentially on Friday last week we sent out instructions to all the shareholders who have held for twelve months, and [explained] how to deposit shares into the brokerage accounts. That process — if you act fast, if your broker doesn’t sit on it — it can be 24 hours. So, we have no reason to believe we won’t start seeing trading — I don’t know if it’ll happen today — but it could happen tomorrow, but obviously we don’t have any control over it.”

He better be on the phone personally pleading with them after Tuesday. Someone at least needs to try to munch that Maxim bid by surprise.

Alley

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New statement from Barry.

“Everyone wants to know when they can start trading — this is the Bitcoin Investment Trust, symbol GBTC. There were many, many steps along the way to be a publicly-traded vehicle, and I’m very proud of my team and all of the lawyers that got it done. But, we’re done. So essentially on Friday last week we sent out instructions to all the shareholders who have held for twelve months, and [explained] how to deposit shares into the brokerage accounts. That process — if you act fast, if your broker doesn’t sit on it — it can be 24 hours. So, we have no reason to believe we won’t start seeing trading — I don’t know if it’ll happen today — but it could happen tomorrow, but obviously we don’t have any control over it.”

mmortal03

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Quote from: bobabouey2 on April 30, 2015, 09:02:09 AM

They could sell on OTC and buy again directly from Secondmarket as accredited investors. Only thing they would lose is the ability to sell on OTC for another year. Even that is not so bad, since presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.

My understanding was that new shares couldn't be sold for a year, however once a share is initially sold (after 12 months), it can then be traded freely.

Chef Ramsay

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Come on fellas, you know you're bullshitting at this point. Do the right thing by stating the obvious and helping this movement move more decent. I and others have seen it all, so now is the time to let us have it.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

If you trimmed the bitcoin dog in 2011 after the protracted bear market and forgot about bitcoin, you missed out on 2013 or got pulled back in at high prices.

If you kept holding after buying at 600+ in 2013-2014 because you think bitcoin has good long-term potential, you have massive losses now.

I agree with the previous poster. There are no rules.

Biodom

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Quote from: jzcjca00 on April 30, 2015, 08:33:41 PM

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 30, 2015, 08:01:13 AM

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 30, 2015, 01:14:57 AM

I guess many people holding shares there may not be willing to sell at current spot prices, because they mostly (if not all) bought at higher prices.

If that was the way they made investment decisions, then they would probably never have become accredited investors in the first place.

As a rule, poor people tend to make investment decisions based on a comparison of the current price versus the price at some point in the past, the date when they bought in. If the price has gone down since they bought something, they tend to hold and wait for the price to go back up. If it does finally start going up, they tend to sell, and feel happy if they managed to break even.

Most rich people do the exact opposite. They make investment decisions based on what they predict the price will do in the future. If an investment has done poorly, and they see no reason to believe that it is likely to turn around, they tend to "trim the dogs." But when an investment starts rising, if they believe it will continue to rise, they will hold.

As a result, poor people tend to hold bad investments and sell good ones, while rich do the exact opposite, which explains why they are rich.

So the question is not whether they are up or down, but whether they still believe the potential upside is greater than the potential downside.

how about when investment going up, then going down or going down, then going up? this happens all the time.
Based on this logic, all Apple investors in 1990-1996 should have sold, only to witness a tremendous run to 750 bil valuation in the next 18-19 years.
Most of biotechs start their life as absolute dogs: check out BIIB and PCYC (this one was $0.6 six years ago, sold in 2015 for >$250)

The first rule of Investment Club is that there are NO rules (that stand for a long time).

jzcjca00

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Quote from: ensurance982 on April 30, 2015, 08:01:13 AM

Quote from: NUFCrichard on April 30, 2015, 01:14:57 AM

I guess many people holding shares there may not be willing to sell at current spot prices, because they mostly (if not all) bought at higher prices.

If that was the way they made investment decisions, then they would probably never have become accredited investors in the first place.

As a rule, poor people tend to make investment decisions based on a comparison of the current price versus the price at some point in the past, the date when they bought in. If the price has gone down since they bought something, they tend to hold and wait for the price to go back up. If it does finally start going up, they tend to sell, and feel happy if they managed to break even.

Most rich people do the exact opposite. They make investment decisions based on what they predict the price will do in the future. If an investment has done poorly, and they see no reason to believe that it is likely to turn around, they tend to "trim the dogs." But when an investment starts rising, if they believe it will continue to rise, they will hold.

As a result, poor people tend to hold bad investments and sell good ones, while rich do the exact opposite, which explains why they are rich.

So the question is not whether they are up or down, but whether they still believe the potential upside is greater than the potential downside.

chriswilmer

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Quote from: oblox on April 30, 2015, 06:36:06 PM

Quote from: jehst on April 30, 2015, 05:26:15 PM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 30, 2015, 03:28:45 PM

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money Huh

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

Stupidest thing I've read in a while... rich or poor, if you have the opportunity to pocket a risk-free gain of that magnitude, you would. It would be as simple as selling your shares and at the same time buying BTC off the exchanges pocketing the difference until the arb-op is gone.

It's even simpler than that. They can sell GBTC shares and then just buy more BIT shares at the current NAV price. No need to touch real bitcoins (if that's what they're trying to avoid). Remember, all GBTC holders are accredited investors already, so they can buy BIT shares whenever they want.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: oblox on April 30, 2015, 06:36:06 PM

Quote from: jehst on April 30, 2015, 05:26:15 PM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 30, 2015, 03:28:45 PM

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money Huh

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

Stupidest thing I've read in a while... rich or poor, if you have the opportunity to pocket a risk-free gain of that magnitude, you would. It would be as simple as selling your shares and at the same time buying BTC off the exchanges pocketing the difference until the arb-op is gone.

It was sarcasm.

oblox

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Quote from: jehst on April 30, 2015, 05:26:15 PM

Quote from: BitAddict on April 30, 2015, 03:28:45 PM

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money Huh

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

Stupidest thing I've read in a while... rich or poor, if you have the opportunity to pocket a risk-free gain of that magnitude, you would. It would be as simple as selling your shares and at the same time buying BTC off the exchanges pocketing the difference until the arb-op is gone.

jehst

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Activity: 798

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: BitAddict on April 30, 2015, 03:28:45 PM

Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money Huh

Rich people don't need risk-free 50% gains on their BTC, man. They're in it long-term.

BitAddict

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Plus they can sell at +50% over market price. Who would not want to take that kind of instant profit and moving to real bitcoins? I'm sure at least some of them already learned how to properly store their bitcoins.

Who doesn't want +50% free instant money Huh

marcus_of_augustus

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Eadem mutata resurgo

Quote from: ensurance982 on April 30, 2015, 08:51:42 AM

....

Yeah, that's what some of them just might do, actually. But I guess there's a reason why they invested in GBTC shares, rather than buying the coins directly: They like the type of investment vehicle, with all its disadvantages and advantages. And that's the very reason they may just stay in that vehicle!

but in the meantime they have learned how to use a Trezor or a Ledger hardware wallet and now feel comfortable being totally in control of their own money. They probably are cluey enough and incentivised to do so ...

Chef Ramsay

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Quote from: Alley on April 30, 2015, 11:49:30 AM

I honestly just don't think any of the shareholders are in a hurry to sell there shares. Few have probly even opened the email to read how to transfer there shares. Its not like bitcoin is there only investment taking up there time.

They're likely high net worth investors and like you say, probably have a small or modest investment that they're just letting ride for the time being.

Alley

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I honestly just don't think any of the shareholders are in a hurry to sell there shares. Few have probly even opened the email to read how to transfer there shares. Its not like bitcoin is there only investment taking up there time.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: jehst on April 30, 2015, 10:08:42 AM

What exchange(s) does BIT use to price it's BTC for the NAV?

The method for computing the NAV is detailed in one of the documents available from the OTCQX page.

JorgeStolfi

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Quote from: bobabouey2 on April 30, 2015, 09:40:03 AM

I don't recall a maturation period for redemptions, but I may have missed it. From this copy of an earlier factsheet, it seems the early redemptions just had an additional 1.5% fee, although it also notes redemptions were on a "limited basis."

*Redemption of shares will be allowed on a limited basis
as of April 2014 with expectation of qualifying for public
trading of the shares via the OTCQX® under the Alternative
Reporting Standards. Please note that an early redemption
fee of 1.5% will apply if shares are redeemed within a year
of purchase.:

http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdf

That fact sheet is from a month ago. My recollection is from early 2014, when they had promised an open market (for Q1 2014, IIRC), but OTCQX was not mentioned.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

What exchange(s) does BIT use to price it's BTC for the NAV?

bobabouey2

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Quote from: JorgeStolfi on April 30, 2015, 09:10:22 AM

Quote from: bobabouey2 on April 30, 2015, 09:02:09 AM

presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.

Redemptions too used to have an N month maturation period (originally 6, extended to 12?) before they dould be redeemed. Isn't that going to be the case still?

I don't recall a maturation period for redemptions, but I may have missed it. From this copy of an earlier factsheet, it seems the early redemptions just had an additional 1.5% fee, although it also notes redemptions were on a "limited basis."

*Redemption of shares will be allowed on a limited basis
as of April 2014 with expectation of qualifying for public
trading of the shares via the OTCQX® under the Alternative
Reporting Standards. Please note that an early redemption
fee of 1.5% will apply if shares are redeemed within a year
of purchase.:

http://bitcointrust.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Fact-Sheet_Mar15.pdf

bobabouey2

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Quote from: David Rabahy on April 30, 2015, 09:30:00 AM

Quote from: bobabouey2 on April 30, 2015, 09:02:09 AM

They could sell on OTC and buy again directly from Secondmarket as accredited investors. Only thing they would lose is the ability to sell on OTC for another year. Even that is not so bad, since presumably Secondmarket will unsuspend redemptions at some point.

As I understand it SecondMarket will not resume redemptions; they only way out is via the OTC; trying to arbitrage with a 12 month cycle would very likely be ineffective.

Since I am truly long-minded, if when I truly have liquidity then I might sell some BIT via the OTC:GBTC and reinvest it at NAV through SecondMarket.

From the latest filing, they appear to be trying to resume redemptions. I don't know enough about Reg M to assess whether they are likely to be successful.

On September 23, 2014, the Distributor received a letter from the staff of the SEC’s Office of
Compliance Inspections and Examinations summarizing the staff’s findings from an onsite review
of the Distributor’s broker-dealer activities conducted in June 2014. Among other things, the staff
stated that it had concluded that the Trust’s redemption program appears to violate Regulation M
under the Securities Exchange Act because redemptions of Shares take place at the same time the
Trust is in the process of creating Shares. The Distributor and the Trust are in discussions with the
staff of the SEC in order to resolve the staff’s concerns, although the Distributor and the Trust
cannot at this time predict the impact such a resolution may have on their respective activities. S

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