Topic: Germany League - Bundesliga Prediction Thread - page 2567. (Read 655079 times)

Glad to hear and read that Werder Bremen managed there game and won this match.
And as Darkoth89 has written there was some surprise even the teams have not won but a few has played very well and they only got no luck win.
Excited about todays matches and maybe we see some surprise again.

Hmm, wouldn't really agree on that. Ulm managed to kick out Erzgebirge Aue. I know Aue isn't really that shiny or famous but when a club from the fourth League (Regionalliga Southwest) beats a team from the second Bundesliga, it's definitely surprising imo. Besides that, the favourites managed to move to the next round in the other matched. But Frankfurt, Union Berlin, Düsseldorf and Osnabrück all had their difficulties.

today there were no big surprises in the dfb-cup games on saturday - the evening game won werder bremen away at carl-zeiss jena with 2-0
tomorrow we continue with several duels david against goliath

I also think that Hertha Berlin will be playing better in the League when its starting .
As written before the Cup have is own rules and playing .

Also Nürnberg lost there match today against Leipzig , Gladbach has scored the most goals today against Oberneuland with 8 Goals.

In a few min the Match Bremen vs Jena starting and dont know what we will see there .

Well @tyKiwanuka (almost) called it. Herthas defense looked really shaky yesterday. Stark and Rekik both didn't have their best day to say the least and I am sure Boyata and Torunarigha would've shown a better performance. Nor did Schwolow really look like the reliable backing that everyone had hoped for in him.

But I still think that Hertha can play a good role in the Bundesliga this season. The (new) players just need some time to really form a team. And even though a lot of people only see Labbadia as some kind of "fireman" which you only hire when you are in risk of relegation, I think he is a coach who can lead Hertha into the Europa League. His work in Wolfsburg was pretty impressive in that regard.

I'm curious about how Leverkusen will perform after Havertz moved to my favorite blue team...
I read some predictions from football experts where it will hurt Leverkusen, but the money that Chelsea offers is not small so it's not easy for Leverkusen to keep Havertz there.

It is not the league, but the first round of German cup started yesterday. In the first match (Hertha Berlin vs. Braunschweig) there was a surprise right away. Braunschweig threw Berlin out of the cup. Whoever would have bet on a Braunschweig victory would have had 7.23 odds. An embarrassing defeat for a team that has about 120 million Euro more available this season through investors and whose goal is to qualify for the Champions League.

Yeah i just heard it at the radio and the Schalke match is cancelled !

Just found something on the Schalke page about and translated it.

Reason for the dispute:
When the Bavarian Football Association (BFV) decided to continue the season in September, Türkgücü was the leader of the League.
During the Corona break the BFV finally declared the Munich team to get up to the 3rd division early and took them out of the ranking.
The result in the End: Schweinfurt formerly second in the League became the first place , at the time of the registration deadline , the best Bavarian amateur team in the opinion of the BFV and therefore it should be the Schweinfurt team for the DFB Cup. Türkgücü Munich has fighted this on the court with success.

Source : https://www.kicker.de/landgericht-entscheidet-schalke-spielt-doch-nicht-gegen-schweinfurt-784419/artikel

Sure, without the fans in the stadium the players won't get that instant feedback for their actions. But as I said a full stadium could also be an intimidating factor for someone who is used to play on a small pitch in their town. And despite our discussion here, I am sure we will see some interesting matches in the first round and I am sure, the one or other bigger club will have a hard time with the underdog.

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It seems like Schalke will play now against Türkgücü Munich and not against Schweinfurt because of a court ruling. I still don't quite understand what happened there, but Türkgücü could become an unpleasant opponent for Schalke. At the beginning of the pre-season test matches, Schalke lost both against Verl and KFC Uerdingen, 2 teams from the third Bundesliga.

E: Okay, seems the Schalke - Türkgücü / Schweinfurt match just got cancelled by the DFB.

They are still competitive, but way less under these circumstances imo. And if this is not priced in, then the HC's on the favs should carry some value.


I think motivation has different layers. Your point is correct, but not the whole story about what motivates athletes imo. Are you more motivated when playing in an empty or packed stadium with great atmosphere ? This is also about getting attention and immediate feedback, every player wants to be the hero and score a nice goal, make a nice tackling with fans going crazy etc. Or you just want to silence the crowd in an away game Fans (and other things) motivate a lot - just playing against Bayern, Dortmund etc. is maybe just 50% of what a 100% motivation is.

Good point. I haven't really seen it that way. But it would be foolish for all the bigger team that got home advantage now to just think that the smaller teams aren't competitive anymore.

I always had the feeling that all the amateur players are motivated down to the tips of their hair for having the chance to play against a Bayern, Dormund etc. All these other factors like playing on their homeground etc. might also have an impact but it is this motivation that makes them really dangerous (for all favorites). When players are giving 200% against a team that maybe only gives 80% (because they think they'll win anyway against a lower tier team) "miracles" can happen. A good example for that is Daniel Batz, the goalkeeper of Saarbrücken. He managed to made five penalty saves in the DFB Pokal match against Düsseldorf last season. 

The DFB Pokal has his own rules for sure , and i guess it hasnt to say anything that they was not allowed to train and that the Teams from the 3rd League have no chance.
i believe this is an incentive that they maybe have a chance for can surprise us , because now they can play again .
For sure the big teams will be not struggle against them but maybe a few will , but we will see that !

I think this will make a huge difference, yes, but I am not saying that every HC will get beat For these small teams, their own ground is their living room. They probably go there by bike, have some fun with their teammates, a beer after practice/game; it's a very comfortable environment for them. In such a big game, they have friends and family by their side and it's overall a big party in these often small towns/villages. All this is gone with forfeiting home advantage and going on a an away trip.

And the difference is also for the teams that now have home advantage, which works in their favour They don't have to deal with all the things, that make these small teams often times very competitive on that given day.

Sure, of course. 

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The saying is: The DFB Pokal has is own rules. But I think this time the teams of the 1st and 2nd Bundesliga have advantages because of the pandemic. Most of the clubs in the Bundesliga could train and play during the last month. The teams from the 3rd Bundesliga and below were partly not allowed to train because the country did not allow it.

Do you think that this will really be an deciding factor for the smaller teams? For their players these matches in the DFB Pokal are the absolute highlight of their football "career". I don't think they will lack any focus/motivation only because they can't play in their home stadium (and infront of their fans). The only thing is that they couid be a bit intimidated by the huge stadiums of the Bundesliga teams? But that would probably only really be the case if the stadium were full of fans.

Something else that came into my mind and that could play an more important role is that a lot of the amateur teams (below the third league) haven't really gotten any match practice due to the Corona crisis and also training wasn't possible for a long time. And often these aren't full-time players but have an different "main-job". I doubt that they all had the time and equipment to completely stay in shape and train at home like the professional players.

Yes, could be worth a try, maybe +1 for ~2.10; this is also a little (state) derby. Schwolow is no big loss imo - there are barely problems with good goalies in german football - but Koch and Waldschmidt are surely not easy to replace. Mannheim did quite well last season after promotion and they were pretty solid defensively. The only issue I see is the lack of spectators, who normally always have a big impact on the lower division home teams. This advantage is gone completely and the environment in Mannheim can be super hostile. Which also leads me to the next point......

......since some smaller clubs forfeited their home advantage. This is due to them not being able to meet all the Corona requirements or it's just not worth it on a financial level. So for quite a lot of matches home/away changed:

Altglienecke - Köln
Fürstenwalde - Wolfsburg
Norderstedt - Leverkusen
Havelse - Mainz
Schweinfurt - Schalke
Engers – Bochum
Oberneuland – Gladbach
Meinerzhagen – Fürth
Celle – Augsburg
Rielasingen - Kiel
Düren - Bayern
(Todesfelde - Osnabrück TBD)

All the teams on the right will actually have home advantage. I am not sure, if this is already priced in - I think not. And then again placing HC bets on the favourites should result in good profits

So I am throwing these bets in the mix

Köln -2.5 (~2.10)
Wolfsburg -3.5 (~1.80)
Leverkusen -3.5 (~1.80)
Mainz -2.5 (~1.90)
Schalke -2.5 (~1.90)
Bochum -3 (~1.80)
Gladbach -3.5 (~1.80)
Fürth -2.5 (~1.90)
Augsburg -3.5 (~1.90)
Kiel -2.5 (~1.80)

I am not sure, which one of these I will actually play, but just some input^^ Leverkusen, Gladbach and Kiel I probably like the most.

Thought about that, too. Especially when considering how bad they played against PSV. That was almost 2 weeks ago now, so actually enough time for Labbadia to catch up and work on the most critical things. But what I think can become a problem for Hertha, not only in the DFB pokal but in general, is the very high expectations everyone has for them after they received that massive amount of money from Windhorst. It will be interesting how the players, coach and officials react if they sleep the start of the season away.

Also worth mentioning is that for Hertha Piatek will miss the match because he has to go into a 5-day quarantine after his journey to Bosnia-Herzegovina with the Polish national team.


That's the thing with upsets. They are hard to imagine until the match is actually over.  

What do you think about the match Waldhof Mannheim - SC Freiburg? Freiburg lost Koch, Waldschmidt and Schwolow this summer. All 3 played a very important role for them last season. Guus Til, probably the replacement for Waldschmidt, is still injured. And in general, the SC tend to have problems against teams that play defensive and when they are in possession most of the time. Last year they also struggled in the first round of the DFB pokal against Magdeburg and had to go into overtime. This could be a very close match on Sunday imo.

Are you still in a beer hall?   
Does Nur stands for Nürnberg? If this is the case, then I would recommend not to bet for Nürnberg.
Nürnberg has already played last Saturday. Union Berlin has won the game 2 -1.

Nice post @Darkoth89

Lots of boring games on paper and the ones I fancied for an upset unfortunately are priced more or less ok, with the favourite having high-ish odds.

I think Hertha will have their hands full with Braunschweig. This can be considered some kind of a derby and freshly promoted Braunschweig should be super motivated, while always being tough to beat at home. Hertha was rather poor in the test matches - although against good opposition - and the Labbadia-magic only works for so long always. Now Hertha is priced at around 1.80, which seems reasonable and I don't think worth a punt on 1X. I would have liked something around 1.60 better to oppose them. This will probably go into overtime.

St. Pauli is historically not a very good cup team. They often struggle in the first rounds and more often than not are eliminated by a lower division team. But the market knows this too and so they are 1.90+ against a team that plays only in Regionalliga (Division 4). Elversberg is a good Div4 team though, while St. Pauli is a mediocre/bad 2. Bundesliga team, so the difference might only be 1.5 divisions in the end^^ Still I somehow like the 1.90, even if I wanted to oppose them at first

For all those <1.20 favs I can't imagine any upsets looking through the games, but there will definitely be a few. Just hard to pick them with so few information available at the start of a season.

The first round of the DFB pokal will take place this week from Friday to Monday (note that the Bayern match will be in October). A perfect opportunity to bridge the waiting time for the start of the new Bundesliga season.

Typically for the frist round of this competition there will be a lot of matches where a team from the first or second Bundesliga plays against an amateur team or a club from the lower leagues. This format always offers some surprises every year. Which are the matches of a club from the first or second leage against one of the third league or below where you think the underdog has the best chances for an upset?



Source: https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/2020-21-dfb-cup-overview-bayern-munich-borussia-dortmund-12193

Ingolstadt - Fortuna Düsseldorf
After Düsseldorfs relegation and Ingolstadt's near promotion to the second Bundesliga, I don't see both teams so far apart anymore. Düsseldorf should still be favoured but I can totally see Ingolstadt here showing a surprising performance.

SSV Ulm - Erzgebierge Aue
Two years ago Ulm managed to kick out Eintracht Frankfurt in the first round of the DFB pokal, the team that has won the cup in the previous season. So Aue should be warned. What also speaks for Ulm, is that the Regionalliga has already started again and Ulm already has some macht practice.

Hansa Rostock - VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgarts (best) offensive player Gonzalez is injured and will miss the first DFB Pokal match. Also Thommy and Förster are injured. Maybe this can be the chance for Rostock?

SV Wehen Wiesbaden - Heidenheim
With Dorsch, Kleindienst and Griesbeck, Heidenheim lost some of their most important players after last seasons relegation drama. Right now I don't see that they haven't found adequate replacements for them.