Block found on p2pool!
https://blockchain.info/block-height/444248
Topic: Giving up real solomining and going back to solomining on p2pool - page 8. (Read 11013 times)
December 20, 2016, 08:17:41 AM
December 20, 2016, 08:16:02 AM
Chicken sounds good.
December 20, 2016, 02:57:06 AM
Perhaps I can simplify it for you a bit. You keep bringing up the 666% block.
For those hashes, statistically you would have expected to find 6 blocks. It simply does not matter if the coinbase transaction distributed the block reward to address 1, address 2, address 3, ..., address N, or to all of them (like in p2pool).
What would have happened had you been mining to address 2 instead of address 1? You would have expected to find 6 blocks. That's it. Changing the address(es) in the coinbase transaction has no bearing at all on those expectations.
I hope that helps to clarify it for you
.
your right Jonny, it has no bearing on the expectations, but that does not mean that it cannot have an effect on your luck. For those hashes, statistically you would have expected to find 6 blocks. It simply does not matter if the coinbase transaction distributed the block reward to address 1, address 2, address 3, ..., address N, or to all of them (like in p2pool).
What would have happened had you been mining to address 2 instead of address 1? You would have expected to find 6 blocks. That's it. Changing the address(es) in the coinbase transaction has no bearing at all on those expectations.
I hope that helps to clarify it for you
.If I changed my coinbase address right before I would have found a block to an address that wouldn't find a block for the next N amount of shares, and kept doing this every time my luck was about to change I could possibly never find a block no matter how many trillions of hashes I tried.
You could stick a different coloured rabbits foot up your arse every time a block was found, or sacrifice a chicken dipped in green food dye when a 4 day block comes along, or kill fictional characters in an animated japanese film and that would have as much chance on changing your luck as changing your address.
Anything to do with changing the luck of finding a block is purely as superstitious as a gambler wearing his lucky shorts.
December 20, 2016, 01:04:39 AM
your right Jonny, it has no bearing on the expectations, but that does not mean that it cannot have an effect on your luck.
If I changed my coinbase address right before I would have found a block to an address that wouldn't find a block for the next N amount of shares, and kept doing this every time my luck was about to change I could possibly never find a block no matter how many trillions of hashes I tried.
Your very first sentence makes an incorrect proposition. Firstly, you have no idea when you would have found a block. For discussion, let's assume that you are basing this on expectations, and at 99.999% of expected shares you change the coinbase transaction address. That very next share has just as much of a chance to find a block with the new block composition as the share before it did on the old block composition. Changing that address means absolutely nothing. There is no such thing as "wouldn't find a block for the next N amount of shares."If I changed my coinbase address right before I would have found a block to an address that wouldn't find a block for the next N amount of shares, and kept doing this every time my luck was about to change I could possibly never find a block no matter how many trillions of hashes I tried.
If you went trillions of shares without finding a block, that's not because you didn't do something like change an address.
Pools are ALWAYS changing the composition of the blocks they are working on. The work they pass on to the miners is therefore also always changing.
December 19, 2016, 11:56:44 PM
Perhaps I can simplify it for you a bit. You keep bringing up the 666% block.
For those hashes, statistically you would have expected to find 6 blocks. It simply does not matter if the coinbase transaction distributed the block reward to address 1, address 2, address 3, ..., address N, or to all of them (like in p2pool).
What would have happened had you been mining to address 2 instead of address 1? You would have expected to find 6 blocks. That's it. Changing the address(es) in the coinbase transaction has no bearing at all on those expectations.
I hope that helps to clarify it for you.
your right Jonny, it has no bearing on the expectations, but that does not mean that it cannot have an effect on your luck. For those hashes, statistically you would have expected to find 6 blocks. It simply does not matter if the coinbase transaction distributed the block reward to address 1, address 2, address 3, ..., address N, or to all of them (like in p2pool).
What would have happened had you been mining to address 2 instead of address 1? You would have expected to find 6 blocks. That's it. Changing the address(es) in the coinbase transaction has no bearing at all on those expectations.
I hope that helps to clarify it for you
.If I changed my coinbase address right before I would have found a block to an address that wouldn't find a block for the next N amount of shares, and kept doing this every time my luck was about to change I could possibly never find a block no matter how many trillions of hashes I tried.
December 19, 2016, 11:55:20 PM
Answer the question Kano! Would it have been possible or not? Yes, or no.
You agree that the coinbase transaction is part of the puzzle right? And every coinbase address is converted to 0's and 1's as part of the puzzle,
https://youtu.be/y3dqhixzGVo
Just like every nonce changes the values, so does the coinbase address.
It's simple!
How is this so hard to comprehend?
"In bitcoin, you can't change the past, and you don't know what effect changing something will have in the future. End of discussion."
Finally you admitted that changing something might effect changing something you will have in the future.
Thank you
You agree that the coinbase transaction is part of the puzzle right? And every coinbase address is converted to 0's and 1's as part of the puzzle,
https://youtu.be/y3dqhixzGVo
Just like every nonce changes the values, so does the coinbase address.
It's simple!
How is this so hard to comprehend?
"In bitcoin, you can't change the past, and you don't know what effect changing something will have in the future. End of discussion."
Finally you admitted that changing something might effect changing something you will have in the future.
Thank you
December 19, 2016, 10:54:38 PM
Perhaps I can simplify it for you a bit. You keep bringing up the 666% block.
For those hashes, statistically you would have expected to find 6 blocks. It simply does not matter if the coinbase transaction distributed the block reward to address 1, address 2, address 3, ..., address N, or to all of them (like in p2pool).
What would have happened had you been mining to address 2 instead of address 1? You would have expected to find 6 blocks. That's it. Changing the address(es) in the coinbase transaction has no bearing at all on those expectations.
I hope that helps to clarify it for you.
For those hashes, statistically you would have expected to find 6 blocks. It simply does not matter if the coinbase transaction distributed the block reward to address 1, address 2, address 3, ..., address N, or to all of them (like in p2pool).
What would have happened had you been mining to address 2 instead of address 1? You would have expected to find 6 blocks. That's it. Changing the address(es) in the coinbase transaction has no bearing at all on those expectations.
I hope that helps to clarify it for you
. 
December 19, 2016, 10:30:34 PM
"... and my luck whether good or bad depended upon which method I chose ..."
No, it's random.
No, it's random.
-
...
Quote
I can almost guarantee ...
No you can't.-
...
And for the record I didn't say I could guarantee, I said I could almost guarantee
No you can't "almost"And for the record I didn't say I could guarantee, I said I could almost guarantee
It's zero.
-
... the next hash could find a block. Just as likely as any other hash, no matter what address was being used or what was in the coinbase. They have no predetermined expected result. None. Zero. Nada.
...
...
-
...
In bitcoin, you can't change the past, and you don't know what effect changing something will have in the future. End of discussion.
In bitcoin, you can't change the past, and you don't know what effect changing something will have in the future. End of discussion.
December 19, 2016, 10:19:07 PM
You actually never answered my question, is it possible or not?
The answer is either yes it would have been possible or no it would not have been possible.
The answer is either yes it would have been possible or no it would not have been possible.
December 19, 2016, 09:50:32 PM
What you clearly don't realise or understand is that I keep answering your question over and over.
I give up.
Your wasting my time - and for what reason I've no idea other than you just don't understand the statistics and probabilities of mining.
In bitcoin, you can't change the past, and you don't know what effect changing something will have in the future. End of discussion.
I give up.
Your wasting my time - and for what reason I've no idea other than you just don't understand the statistics and probabilities of mining.
In bitcoin, you can't change the past, and you don't know what effect changing something will have in the future. End of discussion.
December 19, 2016, 09:30:01 PM
December 19, 2016, 09:07:58 PM
Sigh, so the issue is that you still don't understand the simple basic fact about mining.
Each hash is pseudo-random and effectively unrelated to the previous due to the sha256 hash.
Doesn't matter what address you use or what colour underwear you wear.
There's no known 'other' calculation that will pre-determine the expected result of one hash from the previous.
That's why block finding is called 'luck'. It follows the well known poisson distribution.
Here - learn something that you clearly do not understand (about luck) here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
If you had an address that hit the statistical figure matching expected withholding (that you clearly have no idea even what that is) and you actually weren't withholding, then the next hash could find a block. Just as likely as any other hash, no matter what address was being used or what was in the coinbase. They have no predetermined expected result. None. Zero. Nada.
You can look using hind-sight and see what happened, but even that will have ZERO effect on the future.
Withholding is unrelated to that.
What matters on my pool, is that the miners aren't ripped off ... like slush did.
If someone mines and reaches any of the statistical bad luck limits I set, I will do something about that.
e.g. withhold payouts, block their mining, contact them etc ... in fact I contact them well before that as I have on a number of occasions.
No I wont blindly let the miners on my pool get ripped off as you are suggesting I should.
As for segwit - well firstly it may never happen - damn shame
Secondly, no I wont be using -ck's changes (that are not public so I haven't even seen them) if segwit ever activates, I'll be doing them myself - oh dear
Each hash is pseudo-random and effectively unrelated to the previous due to the sha256 hash.
Doesn't matter what address you use or what colour underwear you wear.
There's no known 'other' calculation that will pre-determine the expected result of one hash from the previous.
That's why block finding is called 'luck'. It follows the well known poisson distribution.
Here - learn something that you clearly do not understand (about luck) here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_distribution
If you had an address that hit the statistical figure matching expected withholding (that you clearly have no idea even what that is) and you actually weren't withholding, then the next hash could find a block. Just as likely as any other hash, no matter what address was being used or what was in the coinbase. They have no predetermined expected result. None. Zero. Nada.
You can look using hind-sight and see what happened, but even that will have ZERO effect on the future.
Withholding is unrelated to that.
What matters on my pool, is that the miners aren't ripped off ... like slush did.
If someone mines and reaches any of the statistical bad luck limits I set, I will do something about that.
e.g. withhold payouts, block their mining, contact them etc ... in fact I contact them well before that as I have on a number of occasions.
No I wont blindly let the miners on my pool get ripped off as you are suggesting I should.
As for segwit - well firstly it may never happen - damn shame
Secondly, no I wont be using -ck's changes (that are not public so I haven't even seen them) if segwit ever activates, I'll be doing them myself - oh dear
December 19, 2016, 08:28:10 PM
Yup. I'm aware that on your solo pool, you can in fact determine the address of the block finder (it's the one that's not your address 
). However, to know that, you still had to do some deduction, or you used one of the block explorers and let that tool do the work for you.
In some cases (like yours) you can very easily determine who mined the block by doing some simple analytics. However, in other cases, that information is just not available. Yes, I know that kano's pool solved block 444154. I certainly do not know which of the miners on his pool submitted that hash. Same on p2pool... one of those 154 addresses in the coinbase transaction of block 443907 found the block... but unless I'm subscribed to the p2pool channel in IRC, I have no clue which one it was.
Anyway, thanks for correcting my blanket statement
I see where the confusion was now. Yes when I said the address your mining to, I meant the address used for the coinbase transaction, not the username for the pool your mining with or the pool URL. ). However, to know that, you still had to do some deduction, or you used one of the block explorers and let that tool do the work for you. In some cases (like yours) you can very easily determine who mined the block by doing some simple analytics. However, in other cases, that information is just not available. Yes, I know that kano's pool solved block 444154. I certainly do not know which of the miners on his pool submitted that hash. Same on p2pool... one of those 154 addresses in the coinbase transaction of block 443907 found the block... but unless I'm subscribed to the p2pool channel in IRC, I have no clue which one it was.
Anyway, thanks for correcting my blanket statement
To my knowledge on any other pool besides solockpool and p2pool you can use any user name you want and yes you are right changing my user name would not affect luck in any way whatsoever on any pool besides solockpool or p2pool.
December 19, 2016, 08:19:35 PM
Simple, changing the coinbase will change the luck - yes.
How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
finally you make sense! Is this not what I've been saying the whole time lol How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
And for the record I didn't say I could guarantee, I said I could almost guarantee
It's zero.
Also if you agree with this statement from johnybravo:
"Statistically, you should have found 10 blocks given your scenario. You didn't find any. Is it possible? Yes. However, it is extremely unlikely. In fact, if you calculate the CDF, you will see just how small a chance a 1000% block is."
Then how can you deny my argument that I can almost guarantee that I'd have found a block with a different address in the scenario your referring too?
Why don't you go work on doing something good for the Bitcoin community like working with CK on segwit instead of wasting your time making yourself look ignorant here? (Not that he needs your help)
Or are you instead going to wait until segwit is adopted and then take a free ride on CKs hard work!
December 19, 2016, 07:54:15 PM
Simple, changing the coinbase will change the luck - yes.
How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
finally you make sense! Is this not what I've been saying the whole time lol How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
And for the record I didn't say I could guarantee, I said I could almost guarantee
It's zero.
December 19, 2016, 06:12:58 PM
Yup. I'm aware that on your solo pool, you can in fact determine the address of the block finder (it's the one that's not your address ). However, to know that, you still had to do some deduction, or you used one of the block explorers and let that tool do the work for you.
In some cases (like yours) you can very easily determine who mined the block by doing some simple analytics. However, in other cases, that information is just not available. Yes, I know that kano's pool solved block 444154. I certainly do not know which of the miners on his pool submitted that hash. Same on p2pool... one of those 154 addresses in the coinbase transaction of block 443907 found the block... but unless I'm subscribed to the p2pool channel in IRC, I have no clue which one it was.
Anyway, thanks for correcting my blanket statement
). However, to know that, you still had to do some deduction, or you used one of the block explorers and let that tool do the work for you. In some cases (like yours) you can very easily determine who mined the block by doing some simple analytics. However, in other cases, that information is just not available. Yes, I know that kano's pool solved block 444154. I certainly do not know which of the miners on his pool submitted that hash. Same on p2pool... one of those 154 addresses in the coinbase transaction of block 443907 found the block... but unless I'm subscribed to the p2pool channel in IRC, I have no clue which one it was.
Anyway, thanks for correcting my blanket statement
December 19, 2016, 05:49:38 PM
Looking at the next argument of changing the address that found the block, I'd like to get some clarity. What are you talking about? What do you mean by "the address that found the block"? There is no record in the blockchain of the miner who found that block. Sure, a pool might put their name in the coinbase transaction message (in fact, most do), but nowhere in the block itself does it say, "this block was solved by jonnybravo0311".
For the sake of the discussion, I'll assume you mean you're going to change an address in the coinbase transaction. If this is the case, then your statement about the same hash not solving the block is completely accurate.
When mining on solo.ckpool.org each miner gets a unique coinbase with their address so yes that is the case. For the sake of the discussion, I'll assume you mean you're going to change an address in the coinbase transaction. If this is the case, then your statement about the same hash not solving the block is completely accurate.
December 19, 2016, 05:27:42 PM
yes, I do understand luck. Let's say it should take an average of 300 billion hashes to find a block, and you've been mining to one address and have thrown 3 trillion hashes at it trying to find a block and don't succeed. I can almost guarantee that if you had thrown those 3 trillion hashes at another address in the same time period that you would have solved at least one block if not several while with the other address you didn't.
So it is possible to change your luck, not predict your luck, but change it, yes you can.
How is this so hard to understand!?!
Take a look at any block that has ever been found then change the address that found the block and you no longer have a block. So if the person that found that block had changed his address to another one prior to finding it then he wouldn't have found the block that he would have changed his luck for the worse.
If I'm going to rent 6ph I could point it all at one address or I could use 600 addresses with 10ths each.
One day one method will work out better in my favor and on another day the other method would have worked better therefore I can change my luck
Statistically, you should have found 10 blocks given your scenario. You didn't find any. Is it possible? Yes. However, it is extremely unlikely. In fact, if you calculate the CDF, you will see just how small a chance a 1000% block is.So it is possible to change your luck, not predict your luck, but change it, yes you can.
How is this so hard to understand!?!
Take a look at any block that has ever been found then change the address that found the block and you no longer have a block. So if the person that found that block had changed his address to another one prior to finding it then he wouldn't have found the block that he would have changed his luck for the worse.
If I'm going to rent 6ph I could point it all at one address or I could use 600 addresses with 10ths each.
One day one method will work out better in my favor and on another day the other method would have worked better therefore I can change my luck
Looking at the next argument of changing the address that found the block, I'd like to get some clarity. What are you talking about? What do you mean by "the address that found the block"? There is no record in the blockchain of the miner who found that block. Sure, a pool might put their name in the coinbase transaction message (in fact, most do), but nowhere in the block itself does it say, "this block was solved by jonnybravo0311".
For the sake of the discussion, I'll assume you mean you're going to change an address in the coinbase transaction. If this is the case, then your statement about the same hash not solving the block is completely accurate. It's why the statement, "boy I sure wish I were solo mining" when people find a block on a pool is just silly. That same hash would NOT have solved the block in any scenario except for the exact one in which it did.
This brings us to your conclusion that you've changed your luck by manipulating the contents of a block. No, you absolutely have not. 6PH is 6PH. What the contents were when the hash was calculated has no bearing on your luck. Either the hash worked with that set of transactions and the block was added to the chain, or the hash didn't work and no block.
As I wrote in my first reply in this thread, there's no secret sauce. It is what it is.
December 19, 2016, 05:12:59 PM
Simple, changing the coinbase will change the luck - yes.
How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
finally you make sense! Is this not what I've been saying the whole time lol How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
And for the record I didn't say I could guarantee, I said I could almost guarantee
December 19, 2016, 04:44:00 PM
Simple, changing the coinbase will change the luck - yes.
How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
How will it change it? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
Every piece of work sent out has different transactions in it - that also changes the luck.
How will the transactions change the luck? No idea - it's "pseudo-random luck".
It can make it better or worse. It's "pseudo-random luck".
You do not understand luck.
No you can't guarantee anything.
Jump to: