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Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios - page 14. (Read 15898 times)

hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 03, 2014, 04:59:34 AM
#48
Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule

Oh, and one other thing about waiting for lower prices--even if this doesn't have a large impact on some sectors of the consumer economy, it has a HUGE effect on the stock, bond, and commodity markets.  While I may not care about whether I can get a TV a little cheaper a couple months from now, you bet I'm going to care if I think I can buy stocks cheaper if I wait a little while.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 03, 2014, 04:50:23 AM
#47
Increase in income brings an increase in savings but when prices are going down people buy more not less, it doesn't make sense not to buy because you think the price will be a bit lower in a year. If it was true nobody would buy on credit, when you buy on credit you are going to pay more for the product when you could wait and pay less because you would save the interests but people want the stuff they want sooner rather than later

Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule; look at tv screens sells in the last ten years : people knew the prices were going down but they wanted to buy immediately on credit anyway!

When the prices go down you are happy and you can buy more and usually you will

You do bring up another very important point that was only touched on briefly in one of the above posts: credit, which is probably much more important to this discussion than fear of job loss or waiting for lower prices.  I should have brought this up earlier.  The world runs on credit.  Without it, the world would come to a virtual standstill.  During economic crises and deflation, credit dries up.  Banks don't want to lend for fear of borrowers defaulting.  If few people can get loans for cars and houses, that removes a lot of demand from the economy, which greatly exacerbates a deflationary death spiral.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 03, 2014, 04:27:48 AM
#46
Increase in income brings an increase in savings but when prices are going down people buy more not less, it doesn't make sense not to buy because you think the price will be a bit lower in a year. If it was true nobody would buy on credit, when you buy on credit you are going to pay more for the product when you could wait and pay less because you would save the interests but people want the stuff they want sooner rather than later

Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule; look at tv screens sells in the last ten years : people knew the prices were going down but they wanted to buy immediately on credit anyway!

When the prices go down you are happy and you can buy more and usually you will

But what about all the people that lose their jobs?  Where are they going to get the money to take advantage of the lower prices?
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
July 02, 2014, 04:51:52 PM
#45
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

It is not a myth. It has been proven many times through history that when prices are falling (or people get an increase in wages, which is effectively the same), they tend to save more, not spend more. If it were not so, there would be no ground for a deflation spiral... Cool

Exactly there is no ground for a deflation spirale! People spend more when prices go down; you must have never bought anything if you don't know that : are you a politician in Washington or an Economics professor??

Being a corrupt politician in Washington or a backward professor in Chicago won't change human psychology. In this case it shows itself in what is called the marginal propensity to save, i.e. the increase in income brings about an increase in saving (the same happens when prices go down). Smiley

Increase in income brings an increase in savings but when prices are going down people buy more not less, it doesn't make sense not to buy because you think the price will be a bit lower in a year. If it was true nobody would buy on credit, when you buy on credit you are going to pay more for the product when you could wait and pay less because you would save the interests but people want the stuff they want sooner rather than later

Agree that in rare cases maybe people restrain from buying to have a lower price but it is the exception, not the rule; look at tv screens sells in the last ten years : people knew the prices were going down but they wanted to buy immediately on credit anyway!

When the prices go down you are happy and you can buy more and usually you will
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 500
July 02, 2014, 04:45:44 PM
#44

Exactly there is no ground for a deflation spirale! People spend more when prices go down; you must have never bought anything if you don't know that : are you a politician in Washington or an Economics professor??


Wrong! if prices are falling that means wages are also falling and business is prob cutting back on production -- laying off workers.  In other words aggregate demand is contracting.  Thats why there is deflationary spiral. 

What you are describing is just a store having a sale.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
July 02, 2014, 03:23:25 PM
#43
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

It is not a myth. It has been proven many times through history that when prices are falling (or people get an increase in wages, which is effectively the same), they tend to save more, not spend more. If it were not so, there would be no ground for a deflation spiral... Cool

Exactly there is no ground for a deflation spirale! People spend more when prices go down; you must have never bought anything if you don't know that : are you a politician in Washington or an Economics professor??

Being a corrupt politician in Washington or a backward professor in Chicago won't change human psychology. In this case it shows itself in what is called the marginal propensity to save, i.e. the increase in income brings about an increase in saving (the same happens when prices go down). Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
July 02, 2014, 02:59:10 PM
#42
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

It is not a myth. It has been proven many times through history that when prices are falling (or people get an increase in wages, which is effectively the same), they tend to save more, not spend more. If it were not so, there would be no ground for a deflation spiral... Cool

Exactly there is no ground for a deflation spirale! People spend more when prices go down; you must have never bought anything if you don't know that : are you a politician in Washington or an Economics professor??

The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

What about smartphones it is not a necessity but people buy more even when they know the price has been going down and is likely to go down
When the price goes up people can consume less

Salaries going down are a bad effect of a crisis and it is upset by the deflation of prices which is excellent

Technology in general, especially electronics, is always getting cheaper because of how fast it evolves.  If you want a smartphone, then yes, you eventually have to buy one, even though you know it will cost less next year.  But the question is, have you ever delayed a purchase or bought an earlier generation product because of that fact?  When I look for new computer parts (I build my own), I decide on what I want to get to meet my needs/desires.  Then I wait a little while either for a good sale or for prices to drop when the next generation comes out.  If I were really concerned about money, I'd wait even longer.  If hard economic times lead to consumers buying every other generation of a smartphone rather than every generation, that will have a significant economic impact.

As for the effects of an economic crisis, if prices and wages drop a small amount, that can be beneficial for most (with the exception of those that lose their jobs due to the crisis).  But the danger with deflation is that it's very easy to get into a deflationary death spiral.  People spend less which causes prices to drop and people to lose their jobs, which leads to less spending, lower prices, and more jobs loss, which leads to even less spending, lower prices, more jobs lost, etc.

Deflation can arrive when there is a crisis but it is not the deflation which is the problem, it is the only good thing

Why the government is saying that when the gas prices go up or when the truiton go up it is bad if inflation is good??

A country is rich when its currency is strong without inflation or with deflation, low taxes, low government, free entreprise, high rate of savings and investment

Actually, I'd say a country is rich when its people really care about one another and help each other out.  But that's a different topic. Smiley

Setting aside governmental manipulation, a country's currency is strong when its economy is doing well (generally speaking, anyway--technically, from a value standpoint, a country's currency will increase in value relative to other currencies as long as its economy is doing better than that of other countries).  As deflation and economic contraction generally go hand-in-hand, it would be hard for a country's currency to do well during deflation.

It is not hard at all : the US during the 19th!!
Switzerland has stable prices for decades
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
July 02, 2014, 12:23:39 PM
#41
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

It is not a myth. It has been proven many times through history that when prices are falling (or people get an increase in wages, which is effectively the same), they tend to save more, not spend more. If it were not so, there would be no ground for a deflation spiral... Cool
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
July 02, 2014, 12:16:21 PM
#40
Inflation is the increase of the money supply, the increase of prices is a consequence of inflation and salaries are a price

I used the word inflation in this context as overall price increases when currency is losing its purchasing power (as the word is primarily used in this sense). That is price inflation.

OK, the "new definition" of inflation is indeed the increase of prices but inflation is really the increase of the money supply

I'm not interested in nitpicking (and it seems that you are), but this "new definition" of inflation can be traced back as far as the beginning of the 20th century... Cool
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 02, 2014, 11:55:04 AM
#39
A country is rich when its currency is strong without inflation or with deflation, low taxes, low government, free entreprise, high rate of savings and investment

Actually, I'd say a country is rich when its people really care about one another and help each other out.  But that's a different topic. Smiley

Setting aside governmental manipulation, a country's currency is strong when its economy is doing well (generally speaking, anyway--technically, from a value standpoint, a country's currency will increase in value relative to other currencies as long as its economy is doing better than that of other countries).  As deflation and economic contraction generally go hand-in-hand, it would be hard for a country's currency to do well during deflation.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 02, 2014, 11:40:32 AM
#38
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

What about smartphones it is not a necessity but people buy more even when they know the price has been going down and is likely to go down
When the price goes up people can consume less

Salaries going down are a bad effect of a crisis and it is upset by the deflation of prices which is excellent

Fashion do not belong to the necessity category. Consumers are being brainwashed by marketing to buy items that gives marginal benefit. And this phenomenal only occur in big city and 1st world country.


True.  Smartphones are convenient, not necessary.
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 02, 2014, 11:38:12 AM
#37
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

What about smartphones it is not a necessity but people buy more even when they know the price has been going down and is likely to go down
When the price goes up people can consume less

Salaries going down are a bad effect of a crisis and it is upset by the deflation of prices which is excellent

Technology in general, especially electronics, is always getting cheaper because of how fast it evolves.  If you want a smartphone, then yes, you eventually have to buy one, even though you know it will cost less next year.  But the question is, have you ever delayed a purchase or bought an earlier generation product because of that fact?  When I look for new computer parts (I build my own), I decide on what I want to get to meet my needs/desires.  Then I wait a little while either for a good sale or for prices to drop when the next generation comes out.  If I were really concerned about money, I'd wait even longer.  If hard economic times lead to consumers buying every other generation of a smartphone rather than every generation, that will have a significant economic impact.

As for the effects of an economic crisis, if prices and wages drop a small amount, that can be beneficial for most (with the exception of those that lose their jobs due to the crisis).  But the danger with deflation is that it's very easy to get into a deflationary death spiral.  People spend less which causes prices to drop and people to lose their jobs, which leads to less spending, lower prices, and more jobs loss, which leads to even less spending, lower prices, more jobs lost, etc.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
July 02, 2014, 11:37:00 AM
#36
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

Less spending means the society is saving and make efficiency use of capital. Compare to the west, citizen of the east save at least 20% of their earning, low interest rate allowed the state to take on mega infrastructure project that will benefit the local citizen in the long run.


Saving is indeed wise and important.  But there's a difference between saving and hoarding.  I'm talking about the latter.  Even good savers will still spend a little money here and there on unnecessary things like going to movies or occasionally getting a new computer or smartphone.  But if everyone cuts out all those extras, it will hurt the economy.

A country is rich when its currency is strong without inflation or with deflation, low taxes, low government, free entreprise, high rate of savings and investment
hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 02, 2014, 11:20:46 AM
#35
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

Less spending means the society is saving and make efficiency use of capital. Compare to the west, citizen of the east save at least 20% of their earning, low interest rate allowed the state to take on mega infrastructure project that will benefit the local citizen in the long run.


Saving is indeed wise and important.  But there's a difference between saving and hoarding.  I'm talking about the latter.  Even good savers will still spend a little money here and there on unnecessary things like going to movies or occasionally getting a new computer or smartphone.  But if everyone cuts out all those extras, it will hurt the economy.
full member
Activity: 235
Merit: 102
July 02, 2014, 10:37:46 AM
#34
Two countries are currently on everyone radar right now.

Argentina and Bulgaria.

What effect they have on their neighbor countries and their creditors is still not known at this time.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
July 02, 2014, 09:27:50 AM
#33
Unlike all the predictions of skyrocketing , I think Bitcoin will fall horribly.
Nobody wants their money invested in anything volatile when they are likely to lose it all.
Hence , most people would divest causing Bitcoin to fall at any time of a major crisis.

Bitcoin's rise relies on the public feeling economically secure.

HAHA hope you were being sarcastic because if not it is a terrible analysis since people will buy bitcoins to protect themselves; you are going to say people buy Gold when they feel economically secure?
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1005
July 02, 2014, 09:25:20 AM
#32
Unlike all the predictions of skyrocketing , I think Bitcoin will fall horribly.
Nobody wants their money invested in anything volatile when they are likely to lose it all.
Hence , most people would divest causing Bitcoin to fall at any time of a major crisis.

Bitcoin's rise relies on the public feeling economically secure.

Say goodbye to bitcoin -> say hello to your savings deprecate to half in ten years.

legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1038
July 02, 2014, 08:08:27 AM
#31
Unlike all the predictions of skyrocketing , I think Bitcoin will fall horribly.
Nobody wants their money invested in anything volatile when they are likely to lose it all.
Hence , most people would divest causing Bitcoin to fall at any time of a major crisis.

Bitcoin's rise relies on the public feeling economically secure.
full member
Activity: 176
Merit: 100
July 02, 2014, 05:29:11 AM
#30
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

What about smartphones it is not a necessity but people buy more even when they know the price has been going down and is likely to go down
When the price goes up people can consume less

Salaries going down are a bad effect of a crisis and it is upset by the deflation of prices which is excellent

Fashion do not belong to the necessity category. Consumers are being brainwashed by marketing to buy items that gives marginal benefit. And this phenomenal only occur in big city and 1st world country.

legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
July 02, 2014, 04:24:25 AM
#29
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

What about smartphones it is not a necessity but people buy more even when they know the price has been going down and is likely to go down
When the price goes up people can consume less

Salaries going down are a bad effect of a crisis and it is upset by the deflation of prices which is excellent
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