Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios - page 8. (Read 15914 times)

Quote from: tee-rex on July 23, 2014, 11:31:18 AM

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

I think the idea is that someday a majority of the world may choose to use bitcoin over fiat currencies because they've had it with their governments messing with their money. If BTC becomes the world reserve currency, then most people would use it. But as I said, I think the world would need to change drastically for this to be feasible. At some point, if governments feel threatened by it, they may try to damage or kill it. And it probably wouldn't be too hard to do that, either.

If governments would mess with their money to a degree when you think the majority of the world would choose to use Bitcoin, people will actually switch to anything which has "real" value (say, gold).

That's possible. But I think such a movement would have to occur among us common folk, if you will (a lot of the rich and those in power probably prefer things they way they are), and bitcoin is more accessible to the average citizen than something like gold.

Average (and below) citizens would obviously switch to either direct barter or will use something like seashells as a means of exchange, using gold or silver for big purchases and settling accounts.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:23:47 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:23:47 AM

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

I think the idea is that someday a majority of the world may choose to use bitcoin over fiat currencies because they've had it with their governments messing with their money. If BTC becomes the world reserve currency, then most people would use it. But as I said, I think the world would need to change drastically for this to be feasible. At some point, if governments feel threatened by it, they may try to damage or kill it. And it probably wouldn't be too hard to do that, either.

If governments would mess with their money to a degree when you think the majority of the world would choose to use Bitcoin, people will actually switch to anything which has "real" value (say, gold).

That's possible. But I think such a movement would have to occur among us common folk, if you will (a lot of the rich and those in power probably prefer things they way they are), and bitcoin is more accessible to the average citizen than something like gold.

tee-rex

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At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

I think the idea is that someday a majority of the world may choose to use bitcoin over fiat currencies because they've had it with their governments messing with their money. If BTC becomes the world reserve currency, then most people would use it. But as I said, I think the world would need to change drastically for this to be feasible. At some point, if governments feel threatened by it, they may try to damage or kill it. And it probably wouldn't be too hard to do that, either.

If governments would mess with their money to a degree when you think the majority of the world would choose to use Bitcoin, people will actually switch to anything which has "real" value (say, gold).

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Activity: 532

Merit: 500

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

I think the idea is that someday a majority of the world may choose to use bitcoin over fiat currencies because they've had it with their governments messing with their money. If BTC becomes the world reserve currency, then most people would use it. But as I said, I think the world would need to change drastically for this to be feasible. At some point, if governments feel threatened by it, they may try to damage or kill it. And it probably wouldn't be too hard to do that, either.

Ibian

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:08:12 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility. But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+. Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption. If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

Why would they sell you a pizza now?

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:08:12 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility. But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+. Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption. If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I doubt that bitcoin will reach that level of adoption any time in the next few decades, if ever (I have a hard time seeing it as more than another major world currency like USD or CNY unless the organization of the world changes drastically). But if it does, or if it comes somewhat close to that, then I can see volatility being reduced to the level we see with fiat currencies today.

tee-rex

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:08:12 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 10:54:48 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility. But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+. Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption. If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

I think this will never happen. Think in terms of real wealth. Why would anyone want to sell you a plant, a bank, an oil derrick just because there is a limited supply of new coins?

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Activity: 532

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:32:41 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 10:17:52 AM

Fiat is a store of value, but not a good store, as the value evaporates with time. Other money, with a near stable value, is better. Bitcoin is more risky as it can go down further, but since it can also appreciate, it can be described as stable with volatility, or stable with a risk. But I expect the value to go up as far more likely than to go down, so as a store of value it is far better than stable money.

What you're describing is a good investment, not a good currency. Bitcoin is anything but stable. Stable plus a little volatility is what the price of a bitcoin on Bitstamp has been for the last few days: it's oscillated only a few dollars around $621 or so. For normal currencies, a 1% change is big deal. Look at that article about Venezuela. 60% inflation is insane. Compare that to the 7000% that bitcoin has gone up in the last 2 years. You can't tell me that bitcoin is stable.

I didn't.

Um, yes you did. See the bold text from your previous comment.

Ibian

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 11:08:12 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility. But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+. Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption. If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

At full adoption, as in everyone in the world use it, a "whale" will be anyone with a tenth of a coin. Math provides the answers we seek.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Activity: 532

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 10:30:15 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

I agree, there's nothing wrong with a little volatility. But even the more extreme daily moves in the Forex markets are a percentage point or two, not 10%+. Although I guess it will depend on how much bitcoins are worth when we reach full adoption. If they're worth a lot more than they are now (like 10x, 100x, or more), that would limit the volatility.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Activity: 532

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Quote from: twiifm on July 23, 2014, 10:27:35 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:32:41 AM

More goods and services mean more wealth, because that is the definition of wealth. More goods and services compared to last year, means that the productivity has gone up. If this happens and nothing else changes, prices measured in money go down and the value of the money goes up, because that is the definition of value of money. So you don't need more money. You never need more money, a fixed supply is always enough.

If fixed supply is always enough then why inflate btc to 21M? Why not premine 21M and give everyone an equal amount? Let the people decide which money they prefer to use?

That could have been done (see Auroracoin). The mining is partly for initial distribution of coins.

And look at how well that worked out for Auroracoin. While I wish I had a bigger slice of the bitcoin pie, slow distribution is important for adoption, and people need incentive to get into bitcoin and develop businesses around it.

Erdogan

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Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 10:17:52 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 09:59:45 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 05:13:22 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 22, 2014, 08:34:31 PM

I'm a little confused here. You say that bitcoin and fiat have no value for direct use, with which I agree. You then say that fiat does not work as a store of value. But then you imply that bitcoin can be a store of value that will suck in all of the extra stored value of the housing market. Why wouldn't bitcoin and fiat be the same in this regard? Yes, bitcoin has limited supply, but why does that mean that it should be considered a safe store of value (it would have to be considered even safer than real estate to suck in its stored value)? Or are you thinking of a future in which bitcoin basically becomes the reserve currency of the world, or at least the dominant currency of a particular country or region?

The difference between fiat and bitcoin is precisely that fiat is unlimited, and bitcoin is limited in supply. Since fiat is unlimited in supply, it can not be used as a store of value. Each time the supply is doubled, the stored value is halved (well, after the new fiat is dispersed). This is the main difference that bitcoin makes. It is in effect now, no need to wait until all others use bitcoins, if they ever will.

In one sentence, you say that fiat can't be used as a store of value, and then in the next, you talk about the stored value of fiat being halved. So can fiat be used as a store of value or not?

I think fiat can be, and is, used as a store of value. The stored value does fall over time with inflation, but it is still used as a store of value. When you save money, you're storing something of value that can be exchanged for goods and services.

If bitcoin stabilizes in price and becomes an ingrained global currency, then its limited supply might make it a better store of value than fiat. But for now, fiat is a better store of value because of its stability.

Fiat is a store of value, but not a good store, as the value evaporates with time. Other money, with a near stable value, is better. Bitcoin is more risky as it can go down further, but since it can also appreciate, it can be described as stable with volatility, or stable with a risk. But I expect the value to go up as far more likely than to go down, so as a store of value it is far better than stable money.

What you're describing is a good investment, not a good currency. Bitcoin is anything but stable. Stable plus a little volatility is what the price of a bitcoin on Bitstamp has been for the last few days: it's oscillated only a few dollars around $621 or so. For normal currencies, a 1% change is big deal. Look at that article about Venezuela. 60% inflation is insane. Compare that to the 7000% that bitcoin has gone up in the last 2 years. You can't tell me that bitcoin is stable.

I didn't.

Ibian

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Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 10:47:15 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

And there is nothing wrong with that. Not even a little bit. People trade in fiat volatility right now. Most people just don't know it.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Quote from: twiifm on July 23, 2014, 10:27:35 AM

Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

I agree, except will bitcoin ever be stable, even after full adoption, etc.? The issue with limited supply is that everyone expects the value to increase over time as the global economy expands. This would invite perpetual speculation, which would result in bubbles and crashes.

Ibian

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1278

Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 10:17:52 AM

More goods and services mean more wealth, because that is the definition of wealth. More goods and services compared to last year, means that the productivity has gone up. If this happens and nothing else changes, prices measured in money go down and the value of the money goes up, because that is the definition of value of money. So you don't need more money. You never need more money, a fixed supply is always enough.

If fixed supply is always enough then why inflate btc to 21M? Why not premine 21M and give everyone an equal amount? Let the people decide which money they prefer to use?

Because Satoshi is not a dirty commie.

But let's entertain that idea once more. For starters, define "everyone". Then explain how the distribution would happen without someone to distribute it and why it would be worth something, anything, under such a scenario.

Ibian

legendary

Activity: 2268

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Look the price is not supposed to be stable right now. This quest that some people seem to be on is idiotic. They don't understand how the price mechanism works at all.

It's a speculators game all the way to the top. When we have reached full adoption, and spent a number of years riding out the last volatility, then we can begin to talk about stability. Before that it's a waste of time.

CoinsCoinsEverywhere

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Activity: 532

Merit: 500

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 23, 2014, 09:59:45 AM

Quote from: Erdogan on July 23, 2014, 05:13:22 AM

Quote from: CoinsCoinsEverywhere on July 22, 2014, 08:34:31 PM

I'm a little confused here. You say that bitcoin and fiat have no value for direct use, with which I agree. You then say that fiat does not work as a store of value. But then you imply that bitcoin can be a store of value that will suck in all of the extra stored value of the housing market. Why wouldn't bitcoin and fiat be the same in this regard? Yes, bitcoin has limited supply, but why does that mean that it should be considered a safe store of value (it would have to be considered even safer than real estate to suck in its stored value)? Or are you thinking of a future in which bitcoin basically becomes the reserve currency of the world, or at least the dominant currency of a particular country or region?

The difference between fiat and bitcoin is precisely that fiat is unlimited, and bitcoin is limited in supply. Since fiat is unlimited in supply, it can not be used as a store of value. Each time the supply is doubled, the stored value is halved (well, after the new fiat is dispersed). This is the main difference that bitcoin makes. It is in effect now, no need to wait until all others use bitcoins, if they ever will.

In one sentence, you say that fiat can't be used as a store of value, and then in the next, you talk about the stored value of fiat being halved. So can fiat be used as a store of value or not?

I think fiat can be, and is, used as a store of value. The stored value does fall over time with inflation, but it is still used as a store of value. When you save money, you're storing something of value that can be exchanged for goods and services.

If bitcoin stabilizes in price and becomes an ingrained global currency, then its limited supply might make it a better store of value than fiat. But for now, fiat is a better store of value because of its stability.

Fiat is a store of value, but not a good store, as the value evaporates with time. Other money, with a near stable value, is better. Bitcoin is more risky as it can go down further, but since it can also appreciate, it can be described as stable with volatility, or stable with a risk. But I expect the value to go up as far more likely than to go down, so as a store of value it is far better than stable money.

What you're describing is a good investment, not a good currency. Bitcoin is anything but stable. Stable plus a little volatility is what the price of a bitcoin on Bitstamp has been for the last few days: it's oscillated only a few dollars around $621 or so. For normal currencies, a 1% change is big deal. Look at that article about Venezuela. 60% inflation is insane. Compare that to the 7000% that bitcoin has gone up in the last 2 years. You can't tell me that bitcoin is stable.

Erdogan

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Quote from: twiifm on July 23, 2014, 10:27:35 AM

More goods and services mean more wealth, because that is the definition of wealth. More goods and services compared to last year, means that the productivity has gone up. If this happens and nothing else changes, prices measured in money go down and the value of the money goes up, because that is the definition of value of money. So you don't need more money. You never need more money, a fixed supply is always enough.

If fixed supply is always enough then why inflate btc to 21M? Why not premine 21M and give everyone an equal amount? Let the people decide which money they prefer to use?

That could have been done (see Auroracoin). The mining is partly for initial distribution of coins.

twiifm

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