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Topic: Global Financial Crisis scenarios - page 15. (Read 15914 times)

full member
Activity: 142
Merit: 100
July 02, 2014, 02:51:12 AM
#28
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.

Less spending means the society is saving and make efficiency use of capital. Compare to the west, citizen of the east save at least 20% of their earning, low interest rate allowed the state to take on mega infrastructure project that will benefit the local citizen in the long run.

hero member
Activity: 532
Merit: 500
July 02, 2014, 01:38:44 AM
#27
The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down


Most of your examples are necessities that have fairly inelastic demand.  Without major lifestyle changes, you still need about the same amount of gas, food, electricity, etc.  When you need to cut expenses, you generally look at optional purchases.  Can a new computer wait until next year?  Can I get by with this old car for another year?  And all of that aside, have you never waited for a sale, or a better sale than the current sale, to buy clothing or a vacation trip?  Have you never postponed filling your gas tank because prices are falling and you have a pretty good idea from experience that they will be a few cents cheaper next week (assuming you don't need to fill your gas tank every week)?

Also keep in mind that in a deflationary environment, as a whole, wages also drop along with prices (where a "drop in wages" may come in the form of job cut).  If I think I'm going to be making less next year, or if I fear I will lose my job, then I'm going to save every penny I can this year.  That kind of mentality leads to less spending and further slowing of the economy.
full member
Activity: 153
Merit: 100
July 02, 2014, 12:35:10 AM
#26
It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this

I entirely agree with you; Bitcoin and Gold will increase in price if there is a financial crisis; when the market will understand that the USD will be inflated to death and will be abandoned in world settlements it will benefit Bitcoin (and Gold) as well

The likely scenario is the fall of USD, market panic, big banks failures, interest rates rise that will be fought by the FED via more QE then riots, marshall law and curfew in the US; the world economy is very integrated so everyone will suffer at first

But China and countries that have natural ressources, low debt and/or work well/hard will come up on top while Europe and the US will not be as powerful relatively to other countries; they will still have a lot of human&financial&physical capital, attraction and ressources so they will probably bounce back if the people doesn't fall for the speech of extremists
It really depends on the level of severity of a financial crisis. In the 2008 financial panic, the dollar and treasury bonds rose sharply as they are considered to be a safe haven. In general US banks were safe from runs on banks by depositors due to FDIC protection so I think your scenario would be unlikely.

In a financial crisis, credit will generally contract, causing people to be able to spend less money, causing deflation. The Fed would attempt to use low interest rates to battle this deflation. Deflation for large economies is a bad thing because it goes into a positive feedback loop that ultimately result in lower economic activity (even after accounting for the lower prices) and lower standard of living. 

The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

Inflation is the increase of the money supply, the increase of prices is a consequence of inflation and salaries are a price

I used the word inflation in this context as overall price increases when currency is losing its purchasing power (as the word is primarily used in this sense). That is price inflation.

OK, the "new definition" of inflation is indeed the increase of prices but inflation is really the increase of the money supply

Most business school are taught seeing things from the supplier side. Hence, deflation and low consumption is a bad thing.



legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
July 01, 2014, 07:35:34 PM
#25
It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this

I entirely agree with you; Bitcoin and Gold will increase in price if there is a financial crisis; when the market will understand that the USD will be inflated to death and will be abandoned in world settlements it will benefit Bitcoin (and Gold) as well

The likely scenario is the fall of USD, market panic, big banks failures, interest rates rise that will be fought by the FED via more QE then riots, marshall law and curfew in the US; the world economy is very integrated so everyone will suffer at first

But China and countries that have natural ressources, low debt and/or work well/hard will come up on top while Europe and the US will not be as powerful relatively to other countries; they will still have a lot of human&financial&physical capital, attraction and ressources so they will probably bounce back if the people doesn't fall for the speech of extremists
It really depends on the level of severity of a financial crisis. In the 2008 financial panic, the dollar and treasury bonds rose sharply as they are considered to be a safe haven. In general US banks were safe from runs on banks by depositors due to FDIC protection so I think your scenario would be unlikely.

In a financial crisis, credit will generally contract, causing people to be able to spend less money, causing deflation. The Fed would attempt to use low interest rates to battle this deflation. Deflation for large economies is a bad thing because it goes into a positive feedback loop that ultimately result in lower economic activity (even after accounting for the lower prices) and lower standard of living. 

The prices going down are the only good thing about a crisis; nobody complains about falling prices in energy prices or electronics; restrain for consuming because prices have been a bit lower than last year and the fact that consumers anticipate lower prices thus delay their spending is a TOTAL myth : who would delay buying gas if the price goes down by 1% or even 5%? Who would delay buying gas if he thinks the price will be 1 or 5% less in a year?? Who would delay buying anything because the price went down?? You will wait a year to buy food, a haircut, clothes, a vacation because you think it will be a bit lower in a year??
When the prices go down you are happy and richer so you buy more

Consumption is a an indirect utility function of the price meaning that consumers consume more not less when the price is lower thus they consume more when the price goes down, it has been proven each time a price has been going down

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

Inflation is the increase of the money supply, the increase of prices is a consequence of inflation and salaries are a price

I used the word inflation in this context as overall price increases when currency is losing its purchasing power (as the word is primarily used in this sense). That is price inflation.

OK, the "new definition" of inflation is indeed the increase of prices but inflation is really the increase of the money supply
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
July 01, 2014, 01:44:51 PM
#24
So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

Inflation is the increase of the money supply, the increase of prices is a consequence of inflation and salaries are a price

I used the word inflation in this context as overall price increases when currency is losing its purchasing power (as the word is primarily used in this sense). That is price inflation.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin
June 30, 2014, 06:06:38 PM
#23
It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this

I entirely agree with you; Bitcoin and Gold will increase in price if there is a financial crisis; when the market will understand that the USD will be inflated to death and will be abandoned in world settlements it will benefit Bitcoin (and Gold) as well

The likely scenario is the fall of USD, market panic, big banks failures, interest rates rise that will be fought by the FED via more QE then riots, marshall law and curfew in the US; the world economy is very integrated so everyone will suffer at first

But China and countries that have natural ressources, low debt and/or work well/hard will come up on top while Europe and the US will not be as powerful relatively to other countries; they will still have a lot of human&financial&physical capital, attraction and ressources so they will probably bounce back if the people doesn't fall for the speech of extremists
It really depends on the level of severity of a financial crisis. In the 2008 financial panic, the dollar and treasury bonds rose sharply as they are considered to be a safe haven. In general US banks were safe from runs on banks by depositors due to FDIC protection so I think your scenario would be unlikely.

In a financial crisis, credit will generally contract, causing people to be able to spend less money, causing deflation. The Fed would attempt to use low interest rates to battle this deflation. Deflation for large economies is a bad thing because it goes into a positive feedback loop that ultimately result in lower economic activity (even after accounting for the lower prices) and lower standard of living. 
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
June 30, 2014, 04:11:41 PM
#22
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).

Inflation is the increase of the money supply, the increase of prices is a consequence of inflation and salaries are a price

If there was another major global financial crisis like we recently saw I think it would be almost certain that money would flow into bitcoin and we would see large gains in value. When the capital flows shift in a flight to safety things like bitcoin and gold are very attractive.

Roosevelt had already expropriated gold in the USA during the Great Depression. So I would be very cautious about precious metals as a safe haven in case of a serious financial crisis. They might not try to take it away from you this time, but could make it illegal to trade, for example (or take to other not so drastic measures).

Gold is manipulated and can be regulated like everything else : interest rates, wages, human capital, real estate, natural ressources companies ect.
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 280
June 30, 2014, 03:21:48 PM
#21
If there was another major global financial crisis like we recently saw I think it would be almost certain that money would flow into bitcoin and we would see large gains in value. When the capital flows shift in a flight to safety things like bitcoin and gold are very attractive.

Roosevelt had already expropriated gold in the USA during the Great Depression. So I would be very cautious about precious metals as a safe haven in case of a serious financial crisis. They might not try to take it away from you this time, but could make it illegal to trade, for example (or take to other not so drastic measures).

They could also make bitcoin illegal to trade. Not that it would stop many people. I think they would do that before they did it with gold.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
June 30, 2014, 03:12:54 PM
#20
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

If they start paying their employees more, that would cause inflation, and the purchasing power of the currency will not stay the same, especially if this process takes on (future expectations on inflation would invariably kick in).
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
June 30, 2014, 03:04:46 PM
#19
If there was another major global financial crisis like we recently saw I think it would be almost certain that money would flow into bitcoin and we would see large gains in value. When the capital flows shift in a flight to safety things like bitcoin and gold are very attractive.

Roosevelt had already expropriated gold in the USA during the Great Depression. So I would be very cautious about precious metals as a safe haven in case of a serious financial crisis. They might not try to take it away from you this time, but could make it illegal to trade, for example (or take to other not so drastic measures).
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 280
June 30, 2014, 06:58:50 AM
#18
If there was another major global financial crisis like we recently saw I think it would be almost certain that money would flow into bitcoin and we would see large gains in value. When the capital flows shift in a flight to safety things like bitcoin and gold are very attractive.
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
June 30, 2014, 06:16:10 AM
#17
It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this

I entirely agree with you; Bitcoin and Gold will increase in price if there is a financial crisis; when the market will understand that the USD will be inflated to death and will be abandoned in world settlements it will benefit Bitcoin (and Gold) as well

The likely scenario is the fall of USD, market panic, big banks failures, interest rates rise that will be fought by the FED via more QE then riots, marshall law and curfew in the US; the world economy is very integrated so everyone will suffer at first

But China and countries that have natural ressources, low debt and/or work well/hard will come up on top while Europe and the US will not be as powerful relatively to other countries; they will still have a lot of human&financial&physical capital, attraction and ressources so they will probably bounce back if the people doesn't fall for the speech of extremists
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
It's Money 2.0| It’s gold for nerds | It's Bitcoin
June 23, 2014, 11:49:03 PM
#16
It would likely increase in price as it did when crypress had it's banking crisis last year.

A financial crisis by definition put the financial stability of banks into question. When banks ability to pay depositors is questioned then people will have an incentive to look elsewhere to hold their money. Bitcoin is a likely answer to this
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250
June 23, 2014, 09:13:17 PM
#15
they forgot one trait

traceability/anonymity
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1007
June 23, 2014, 06:08:05 PM
#14
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
Hypothetically. This could mean everyone is killing their currency faster than the USA.

However, countries with the exchange rate being lowered are now at an advantage. As they export goods, they can pay their employees more, and 80% of the time the purchasing power of the currency stays the same, unless something REALLY goes to crap.

E.x: Canada sells $10 to America. America pays Canada $10, but Canada gets $11 due to exchange rate differences. Purchasing power is nearly 1:1, and so Canada makes a larger profit.

This is constant for all other currencies and countries.

So as every other currency goes down, they are earning more against the USD. It also means that the US may be setting up to import lots of goods, since they can buy said product in the example for $10. And then everything begins to change from there.

It's kind of wierd, but if you do a bit of research, you'll understand.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
June 23, 2014, 03:55:42 PM
#13
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes

So, as long as USDX is not going down, treasuries are ok (i.e. the debt can keep on growing) as well as the U.S. economy, right?
legendary
Activity: 1918
Merit: 1018
June 20, 2014, 05:05:51 AM
#12
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

USD index has been going up steady in the last few years.

People think US is in bad shape, but they don't realize Europe and some export countries has high dependency on US.

If the exporting countries buy U.S. government debt (i.e. treasuries) in exchange for the goods they supply, then this dependency may ultimately turn out devastating to the U.S. economy. If they don't buy treasuries, then this dependency is mutual overall since the exports should be balanced by the corresponding imports.

It has been to exchange goods that require hard work against IOU's for the US government and the countries exporting were able to build their industry and learn valuable skills but now they are shifting to a situation where it will be more interesting to have a more valuable currency and sell their products to their own people instead of getting paper in exchange of their hard labor

It will be devastating for the US

Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

Yes
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
June 20, 2014, 04:26:36 AM
#11
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

USD index has been going up steady in the last few years.

People think US is in bad shape, but they don't realize Europe and some export countries has high dependency on US.

If the exporting countries buy U.S. government debt (i.e. treasuries) in exchange for the goods they supply, then this dependency may ultimately turn out devastating to the U.S. economy. If they don't buy treasuries, then this dependency is mutual overall since the exports should be balanced by the corresponding imports.
full member
Activity: 141
Merit: 100
June 19, 2014, 01:19:14 PM
#10
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?

USD index has been going up steady in the last few years.

People think US is in bad shape, but they don't realize Europe and some export countries has high dependency on US.

Real estate in export countries has been going up the roof. Price went up 100% in a matter of 1-2 years as their own country currency is pegged to USD.
hero member
Activity: 742
Merit: 526
June 19, 2014, 09:49:06 AM
#9
Hard to say which way bitcoin will go.

Remember, during the last crisis, even gold and oil went down quite a bit.

Gold has been going up during the years leading to the house crisis, what was a bit surprising to some was to see the USD going up as well

What do you mean by the USD going up - the USD index, i.e. dollar going up against other major currencies?
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