Topic: Gnosis - the decentralized prediction market platform and oracle standard - page 16. (Read 103614 times)

so pretty much standard poloniex routine , pascal and zec are my friends.

to begin with, ico was handled poorly and unfairly. most of the investors didn't have the time to assess their risk/reward when they participate in the auction. the decrease in token price should also have been dependent of the amount of token sold for a more fair price.

however, things may play out differently after the token distribution. here is my prediction:

- some holders will use gno to generate wiz.
- majority of holders won't sell their gno tokens for loss (which is less than $30 or 0.6 ether).
- as a result the gno tokens that will be liquidated in poloniex will be scarce, which will push the market cap higher than $300M.

Check out Gnosis in Forbes today:

Gnosis Prediction Market Scores $12.5 Million in Record-Breaking Crypto Auction
https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogeraitken/2017/04/24/gnosis-prediction-market-scores-12-5m-in-record-breaking-crypto-auction/#77a7f38e87d1

hi guys can you SS your token in myetherwallet?

Few things are catching my attention here.
I invested yesterday while it had already said "auction ended", and the transaction went through with the eth adress created by Gnosis, and I just tried 0.5 eth now at the time of writing and transaction still went through.
It would not be the first time an ICO page is showing wrong informations.
I would not see the point of the Gnosis team to create such an abnormal situation.
Also, Vitalik Buterin, not known to be a scammer clearly approved this ICO management and is an advisor, and when we see Ethereum I would not understand why back up Gnosis if the project is shady or bad handled.
What is sure is that this ICO was not clear as to the model, many people did not understand the concept, and with othe ICO's like Melon or IEX ending in matters of hours, people just did not want to miss the train.
Another important thing, if we look at 2 of the top cryptos who are Bitcoin and Dash we know for both that the creators both hold large amounts of tokens in wallet (1 million for Satoshi and 2 millions for DASH founder) and both have not used their tokens and did not even "lock" their wallet, and still people "trust" these coins even if some will disagree for sure specially about one of the two examples. So Gnosis clearly is not ideal regarding the process, but it does not mean the ROI will be catastrophic, just it will take some time to be positive ROI. Eth did not trade after ICO for example and it did not matter, only made the project more strong.
So let's wait and see how this turns out.
After reading a bit on Gnosis, it is reasonnable to think other "future token launches" will be made.
And I sure hope a big part of remaining funds will be locked for a long period, a statement from Gnosis will be reassuring.

I agree that the value can only go down..

4% for sale and that too 25$ each token...and added to that will be listed on Poloniex first day?

This looks too fishy..and will surely fall

Anyone have an opinion on the upcoming BAT token?

I guess the decision by polo was made way before the ICO. And the coin is quite interesting if you ask me but the ICO is a complete disaster... Augur has just become much more interesting as the sudden price rise shows.

Many many good coins in here. GNO is the lucky one will be listed on polo.lol

This is a disaster! 96% to the devs... 4% to the investors.... This means that only 4% will be on the market. I think they said that during the first year they will not sell any coins? Oh boy! When they sell only 10% of their coins this will end in tragedy... Here are some interesting stats: https://steemit.com/ethereum/@kingscrown/gnosis-ico-raised-12-5million-dollars-in-10-minutes-making-the-token-312-million-usd-market-capitalization-worth

The article mentions these stats:

Average (mean) address sent 330 ETH ($16,550)
The median (50th percentile) address sent 20 ETH ($1,004)
Participation: 758 addresses
Users bought: 418,777.777777777777427493 Gnosis

We have only 758 different addresses. Let us assume there are different persons. 758 persons own Gnosis Tokens... This means if nobody sells they have 758 potential active users. I assume most of them are investors and are not interested in using Gnosis. Users would not buy at this crazy price. They can just buy when the token is out. Well great, they will probably have almost no active users on their platform. Investors will not sell because there will be no demand for the coin at these crazy high prices and most investors will most likely not go down below the ICO price. This will seriously damage the project as many people will not recognize why they would join at these crazy prices as this feels like a ripoff. Great stuff Gnosis, Augur is already rising. A project needs active users, if it has no active users it is called dead. This outcome is not favorable when trying to gain new users and if it does not gain new users it will lose in value. Conclusion: they shot themselves in the own foot! Seriously this ICO is a fucking joke and the investors will learn the hard way that they were just way too greedy. And yes Gnosis will learn that too. This will be like ZCash on the first day all over again starting at some crazy high price and going fast down. If this coin SHOULD go up I lose all faith!!! The outcome of this ICO was totally predictable, shame on you Gnosis. Is this the biggest bubble in cryptocoins right now?

EDIT: I did not write the linked article. I just liked the mentioned stats and wanted to give credit so I linked to it.

Greatly pointed out. I wish I could short this thing

amazing raised 300M in 13minute 

Another superfast token sale, Ethereum-based sales are doing well this year...

Is it fair to say there should be a second sale?

2 Contributions own 40% of the total sold.

https://medium.com/@corpetty/a-look-at-the-gnosis-dutch-auction-distribution-25c2ccac2d9d

http://www.coindesk.com/ethereum-ico-irrationality-300-million-gnosis-valuation-sparks-market-concerns/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/67ax24/to_all_gnosis_token_holders_take_a_seat_before/

1) The Gnosis token sale ended at a theoretical 312.5 Million valuation.
2) Only 4.17 % of all tokens have been distributed to you early investors, the other 95.83 % of the tokens is in hands of the Gnosis team.
3) The Gnosis team now owns 299 million USD in artificial token value. They've invested 0 USD.
4) In contrast, the investors who paid 100 % of the money, invested and own 13 million USD in tokens.
5) Let me be more clear: You paid 31.25 USD per Gnosis token and as a collective, have only received 4.17 % of all tokens.
6) Now take a seat before you read number 7
7) The actual value of the Gnosis tokens is 13 million USD (this is all of the actual money brought in by the investors) divided by 10 million tokens. That means each individual token now has a factual value of 1.3 USD.
As of now, your net result on your investment is -95 %
9) We did warn you: http://i.imgur.com/WAVLXWE.png - You triggered the worst case scenario in this graph
10) And warned by /r/ethtrader
11) But you just didn't want to listen, did you

Token Auction Ended
Thank you for participating in our token auction.
Tokens will be tradable one week after the auction has ended.
Why so fast? Even I have not bought

Oh wow sold out in 10 minutes! 

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/67aeih/gnosis_ico_sold_out_in_10_min_300m_usd_valuation/

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-NMsfIXYAEvNxZ.jpg
vs.
The gnosis slogan "crowd sourced wisdom"

me too failed after Ethers were sent correctly....