Author

Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1181. (Read 2032266 times)

legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1012
January 28, 2014, 05:23:42 PM
Any day now...

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Obviously I see a lot of the advantages of Bitcoin in terms of mobility and it's a big part of the reason that I'm dinking with it.  I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

I can confidently say that my bitcoin holdings are far more secure than my precious metal holdings.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
January 28, 2014, 05:20:21 PM

Any day now...


You don't think it's *MUCH* better than 2011 or 2012?





I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.


Do you periodically put a moderate amount of "daily spending" gold in an online wallet or on your phone for day-to-day use? What app do you use? All I've figured out to do with my gold is show an old half-eagle to friends as a quaint token of a bygone era.




I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)


Indeed it is not a trivial problem. But it *is* getting much better. Armory is great for cold storage, there are several very usable, reasonably secure Android wallets for daily use, blockchain.info is great for online-spending money, etc...

Yes, web-wallets and poorly secured stuff still get hacked. But a much smaller percentage of the total float than a couple years ago, as a result both of people being smarter about it, and the existence of better tools. The days of 25,000BTC thefts from unencrypted QT wallets are hopefully over (condolences to allinvain).

legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1002
January 28, 2014, 05:16:57 PM

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.

More rarely, bitcoins can be transmitted at the speed of light right into the void of time-space by using a public key which is off by one character or fucking up on a script.  In this way it does have an analogy to gold which can go down with some sailing ship or be forgotten about in some treasure chest.  But gold lost in this way is vastly easier to recover than it's Bitcoin analog and recovery happens with some regularity.



you do know of course that being off by one character will not lose you your coins.

and sending from a cold storage wallet is trivial.
legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
January 28, 2014, 05:01:00 PM

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.
...

You know as well as I do that those issues are:

1) Exaggerated due to the immaturity of the ecosystem. The tools will (are) getting much better/idiot-resistant.
...

Any day now...

I've made my BTC holdings as secure as my PM holdings, but at the expense of making my BTC almost as difficult to use as my gold.

Obviously I see a lot of the advantages of Bitcoin in terms of mobility and it's a big part of the reason that I'm dinking with it.  I'm just saying that securing one's private key is not a trivial problem.  Those who think it is or treat it like it is may have the mis-fortune of no longer having the problem.  And again, this is borne out by a huge amount of evidence (which does not appear to me to be slowing down much yet.)

legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
January 28, 2014, 04:41:25 PM

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.

More rarely, bitcoins can be transmitted at the speed of light right into the void of time-space by using a public key which is off by one character or fucking up on a script.  In this way it does have an analogy to gold which can go down with some sailing ship or be forgotten about in some treasure chest.  But gold lost in this way is vastly easier to recover than it's Bitcoin analog and recovery happens with some regularity.





You know as well as I do that those issues are:

1) Exaggerated due to the immaturity of the ecosystem. The tools will (are) getting much better/idiot-resistant.

2) Present with pretty everything since the dawn of time. How much gold has been stolen over the centuries? Quite possibly most of the above-ground tonnage. Petty theft, digging up tombs, crusades, wars, you name it... The history of humanity is fraught with fighting over, and theft of, gold.

legendary
Activity: 4760
Merit: 1283
January 28, 2014, 03:55:07 PM

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.

Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Ya...it can be transmitted at that speed of light right into some thief's control and it has happened with a truly impressive percentage of the currency base.

Everything has it's pros and cons.

More rarely, bitcoins can be transmitted at the speed of light right into the void of time-space by using a public key which is off by one character or fucking up on a script.  In this way it does have an analogy to gold which can go down with some sailing ship or be forgotten about in some treasure chest.  But gold lost in this way is vastly easier to recover than it's Bitcoin analog and recovery happens with some regularity.

donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
January 28, 2014, 03:17:17 PM

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.


Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

But gold can be used (probably is used) to transmit bitcoins.

I like "analog bitcoin".

How about "gold is bitcoin 0.1 alpha"?
member
Activity: 85
Merit: 10
January 28, 2014, 03:11:48 PM

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.


Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.

Wanna see how hard I can throw?  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1004
January 28, 2014, 02:25:09 PM

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.


Bingo. But it's worse. Analog signals can be transmitted at the speed of light. Gold cannot.
legendary
Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
January 28, 2014, 05:24:44 AM
I think of gold as analog bitcoin.
[/quote]

lol nice one
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1007
Hide your women
January 28, 2014, 05:16:58 AM
...
Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
...
Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.


Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.
That rant would likely apply just as much to bitcoin as it's current main purpose is very much the same hoardiness you attribute to gold.  Granted the current trend lines seem to be headed in the opposite directions for XBT vs Gold in that regard.  But long term who knows.

That's the beauty of Bitcoin. It can have all the "hoardiness" of Gold while being extremely easy to transact with as well. Hence Gold 2.0.

I think of gold as analog bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1012
January 27, 2014, 10:59:03 PM
...
Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
...
Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.


Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.
That rant would likely apply just as much to bitcoin as it's current main purpose is very much the same hoardiness you attribute to gold.  Granted the current trend lines seem to be headed in the opposite directions for XBT vs Gold in that regard.  But long term who knows.

That's the beauty of Bitcoin. It can have all the "hoardiness" of Gold while being extremely easy to transact with as well. Hence Gold 2.0.
legendary
Activity: 896
Merit: 1006
First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
January 27, 2014, 10:56:36 PM
...
Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
...
Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.


Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.
That rant would likely apply just as much to bitcoin as it's current main purpose is very much the same hoardiness you attribute to gold.  Granted the current trend lines seem to be headed in the opposite directions for XBT vs Gold in that regard.  But long term who knows.
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1005
January 27, 2014, 10:48:42 PM
To move this thread in a more productive direction what do people here think about Rhodium?

Definitely worth a dabble, though maybe not quite as interesting from a trading perspective as BTC/LTC. The ratios are where the fun is anyway.
sr. member
Activity: 448
Merit: 250
January 27, 2014, 09:53:29 PM
...
Some people in this thread think gold is on its way to 0 and its dead.
...
Not zero... I'd say, though, that it'll eventually lose *most* of it's monetary-use premium. That's a bit tough to tease out; the other main domains for gold are industrial use and jewelry. Industrial use accounts for what, about $300/oz? And then the demand for jewelry is all convoluted with its historical moneyness, so I don't know how to treat that (though I'm aware that about 50% of above-ground gold is estimated to be jewelry). So maybe the floor once gold is finally (and correctly) no longer seen as a monetary instrument/asset is somewhere in the $300-$600 range.


Monetary-use premium? Where exactly is it used for money these days? Porcfest? A few gun shops in Arizona? A few village merchants in remote areas of Myanmar? 

I would say that right now it's "moneyness" accounts for a VERY small percent of its current demand, and it's "hoardiness" (similar to moneyness but little to do with transactional value) as well as its speculative value, is responsible for most of its non-industrial, non-convoluted-with-jewelry demand.
Does that make sense? Obviously something that is used as money is in demand to be used as money, and usually things used as money are also good for hoarding. HOWEVER - what we're seeing with gold is rather unprecedented - most of the world has completely abandoned it as a transactional currency. But much of the world still hoards it! Central banks (esp. eastern CBs), asians, libertardian American stackers, etc. The demand is not for gold as a transactional currency - demand would be much higher if that were the case - but for gold as a hunk of metal to hoard for various reasons - inflation hedge, SHTF hedge (however misguided that may be), deflationary store of value (as unsuccessful as that's been the past couple years.)

I'm not necessarily saying gold ISN'T headed for $0, but if even a small fraction of its former demand as a transactional currency were restored (in addition to retaining its value as a hunk o' hoardiness), combined with the artificial supply from the paper market collapsing (which it won't, ever) it would indeed make gold holders quite happy. It's a pipe dream, and it's not MY pipe dream, but it's one of many things that could happen, and that's why Goat has a small % of his portfolio in PMs.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
January 27, 2014, 12:46:17 PM
How many % of total what? Value in the world stored in it?

The world and everything in it is 100%.

How many % is gold?

(Discussing about gold in dollar terms is not only wrong, it is impossible.)

Hmm. The answer is the same as to this question: "what percentage of his wealth does the average person hold in gold?".

It isn't any easier to answer, though.

My wholly irrelevant guess is somewhere in between 1.5% to 5%

On a side-note: what's the value of the last fish in the world?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
January 27, 2014, 04:14:04 AM
How many % of total what? Value in the world stored in it?

The world and everything in it is 100%.

How many % is gold?

(Discussing about gold in dollar terms is not only wrong, it is impossible.)
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
January 27, 2014, 02:58:52 AM
It is helpful if we totally rid ourselves of fiat as a measurement of value:

The market cap of gold is currently about 1.5-2% of market cap of the world.
That of silver is way less and Bitcoin is still less (0.003%).

When Bitcoin reaches its potential and becomes 10-50% of the market cap of the world (the position that paper sludge is occupying now and metals occupied thousands of years), will gold still be 1.5% of the world?

I think, yes. I see no much reason why not. It will start to be used in more decorative purposes, though, such as the Solomon's Temple which was overlaid with gold.

To uphold the price of gold (or anything), it does not matter if 95% think it is worthless. The rest can happily bid it up, and gold is a prime example of this.

Anybody care to discuss the role of gold in mathematical terms? How many % of total? And will the total go up or down with the introduction of crypto and the resulting free flow of money?

How many % of total what? Value in the world stored in it?

I agree we should try to rid ourselved from measuring everything in USD. That's quite a project though, because tax authorities require that crap as unit of measurement for everything.

btw, still an awesome chart to look at:

http://pricedingold.com/bitcoin/

would've preferred them to use oz/BTC instead of mg/BTC, but whatever.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
January 27, 2014, 02:54:12 AM
(what happened to this thread? 2 pages of pointless ego-fighting?)

question to the experts, though: some sources state "problems in emerging countries" as reason for the market drops last week. I have problems understanding that. Which countries?

Seems to me the USD dropped at the same time as equities and that other stuff, so it should've been something to do with the USD? Did the FED try to taper or something?
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
January 27, 2014, 02:50:00 AM
It is helpful if we totally rid ourselves of fiat as a measurement of value:

The market cap of gold is currently about 1.5-2% of market cap of the world.
That of silver is way less and Bitcoin is still less (0.003%).

When Bitcoin reaches its potential and becomes 10-50% of the market cap of the world (the position that paper sludge is occupying now and metals occupied thousands of years), will gold still be 1.5% of the world?

I think, yes. I see no much reason why not. It will start to be used in more decorative purposes, though, such as the Solomon's Temple which was overlaid with gold.

To uphold the price of gold (or anything), it does not matter if 95% think it is worthless. The rest can happily bid it up, and gold is a prime example of this.

Anybody care to discuss the role of gold in mathematical terms? How many % of total? And will the total go up or down with the introduction of crypto and the resulting free flow of money?
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