Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1457. (Read 2032274 times)

Its about that time..

this thread was started 3/13

Bitcoin  5.40

Gold 1690.


today 6/12

Bitcoin 5.56   (up ~3%)

Gold 1610  (down ~5%)

BTC is up, Gold still hasn't collapsed.  BTC is outperforming gold.


GLD 156 (cypher shorted at 152)

The only thing I'd question is whether the USD is still rising. Note the 72-74 range has been defended several times since 2008, and each bounce has been successively weaker in its angle of ascent. There is enough room now for further inflationary intervention, although I'm sure >85 would be more comfortable for bumbling Bernanke.




I wouldn't wait with bated breath either. The thing is, the Chinese are putting their wealth into real assets instead of paper. They can dump their foreign currency holdings in token gestures to help keep things from getting too far out of control, but it isn't as though they're propping up the whole world, only intervening strategically to look like saints when they may wind up as pied pipers. When the floor falls out from under most of the world, China will be one of the few remaining on solid ground - the 'least worst' in the global debt collapse. Unless a big asteroid lands in Shaanxi...

Finally, more on the HKMex: since last Friday, the open interest in gold is up 5-fold to a new record, and silver's rose almost an order of magnitude to its second highest level. Of note is gold's volume from the beginning of June - off the charts. I wouldn't be surprised to find many of these contracts are being opened in lieu of COMEX/LBMA holdings.




The possible dynamic of COMEX/LBMA contracts being abandoned in favor of HKMex, and possibly others, is exactly what we're seeing with the growing abandonment of the Euro, USD, and other currencies in favor of Bitcoin. That means neither gold/silver nor Bitcoin have to 'grow' - they just need to remain viable and relatively stable in purchasing power while capital flows into them. Time is on their (our) side.

way to go bitcoinBull.

and not only does inflation require increasing debt, it requires an accelerating debt:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/steve-keen-why-2012-shaping-be-particularly-ugly-year

These are good points. Given how fickle markets are, its not outlandish to imagine a run from the dollar. It seemed probable last year when DXY was at 74 and falling. But at 82 and rising, seems unlikely any time soon.

One more the thing.


With the recent news from China, I'm not holding my breath for the East to ride in and save the day. They cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, the economy is slowing, inflation there now easing.. That news could be the straw which pushes (paper-)gold to a new low.

But the national debt is a small part of total US debt (public + private). That's the point of this article. The national debt is ~$14 trillion of a $50t total (granted, the $14t is growing). From wikipedia:


It collapsed in '08-'09. And still falling..

And the rules haven't changed.


silverbox is wise to show the debt levels. With massive government deficits piling onto more and more debt, how can you expect the political leaders to allow for it all to collapse?

hmm what is happening to the national debt..



hmm what is happening to the money supply...



It could just be me, but they seem to be going umm... UP..

Rats flee a sinking ship, and people don't stand under a falling building. Smart capital has not remained under collapsing debt - it is finding shelter anywhere it can: precious metals, agriculture, fine art, real estate, gemstones, productive enterprises, etc.

Inflation is unnecessary at this point, even though it's unavoidable for the status quo to maintain its power base. Real assets, especially gold, will continue to gain for some time even if the monetary spigots were shut off today, because chaos and disruption are not conducive to security of wealth.

You wouldn't visit strange websites if you thought they'd steal your Bitcoin wallet, would you? If that were the case, 'safe' sites would garner much more traffic. Now ask yourself: How do you get a crew to want to get off a submarine? Or: How do you get people to want paper instead of the real thing?


I agree to an extent and no longer trade traditional markets for that reason, but that doesn't change the fact that Bitcoin still has a long way to go in terms of both awareness and utilization before it's a universally-realistic alternative.


If sufficient paper is supplied for acquisition, they'll manage it. Who wouldn't be able to with an unlimited bankroll? There's also a question of how much has been delivered already. Seeing as how the CEO was ousted and a prominent JPM exec was recently appointed to Barrick's board, there's probably much more going on behind the scenes than we're aware of.

If Barrick defaults, the end result is the same as open market purchases with inflated fiat - reduced supply being chased by a growing proportion of a stable supply of capital (no inflation/deflation) causes prices to increase. Default has the potential to be much worse than inflation, since the entire structure of the financial system would be viewed as unstable. As an aside, debt deflation could balance this out in terms of fiat-denominated pricing, but it can't prevent the purchasing power ratio from shifting in favor of gold and other real assets.

I think the inflationary course is most likely right now, which would lock up production from multiple sources for quite a while. Without more than a trickle of availability to rising public and competing sovereign demand, bids will rise rapidly. Then requests for the real thing would increase pressure further (e.g. futures delivery requests), possibly consuming all available production that was supposed to be committed to SLW (China, India, Russia, et al).

The evidence and patterns over the past few years definitely point to the inflationary route.

Rock<-Barrick(JPM)->HardPlace = Gold & silver prices ^^^

The fact that there's two separate forms of gold, paper and physical, is exactly why I've come to dislike it. There's only one bitcoin, so its frictionless and that makes it much harder for TPTB to manipulate the price.

That's paper, not real gold. When wheat falls in price, you get excited to buy it at a discount. Gold works the same way because it's physical! Paper gold does not behave the same as physical gold.

And really? A $30 gyration is going to topple an inert metal that has seen every civilization and empire in human history come and go? It wasn't even an outside reversal for short-term technical influence. You're smarter than that. Don't be dumb.

Read and understand: The Situation Is Even More Dire Than I Imagined


A contractual obligation to deliver 170-200 million ounces of silver at $3.90 an ounce, much of which will have to be obtained at current market prices!


This is just talking about Barrick. Other mining companies are having issues as well, and that's with current demand. And current demand can't even be measured properly because many of the largest trades are not done through public exchanges.

Here's another chart I just found, total debt - public (gov) and private (businesses and consumers). Shows that we're still early in the deleveraging cycle. Without inflation, gold won't go up.

wow, quite the reversal from yesterday's initial 1609 ramp in response to Spain.

Another odd event, this one coming from data on Friday's futures open interest at the Honk Kong Mercantile Exchange. OI nearly quadrupled, reaching heights last seen briefly at the high of November 2011, and twice around the USD$1,600 level just prior to gold's launch to breach $1,900. Meanwhile, volume is way off the charts. A similar situation exists with silver.

Even though the HKMex is tiny compared to COMEX/LBMA, it does have an interesting position being an international PM futures exchange in a region where physical is the primary means of trading gold, not paper. If demand cannot be met in the physical markets, will it spill over into the futures markets to facilitate acquisitions? If so, it's hard to see how the $2,000 mark will last.

In addition to the general futures mechanism that shows how the physical gold price cannot decline without incurring debilitating shortages, an in-depth examination of GLD movements highlights the paper side.

In short, derivative creation causes movements to appear slower while the underlying instruments are moving rapidly. The greater the magnitude of derivatives, the longer changes appear to take.

Not really, but I'm trying to look on the bright side for cypherdoc

Edit: but then there's talk all over about upward gold revaluation...

CampBX hardly counts

Is it any wonder nearly the only participants left are the banks and hedgies? Got phyzzz?

In other news, Bitcoin reached $7.24/BTC today - briefly, on CampBX.

I was reading CNN Money earlier (I always go there first to see what BS the MSM is spewing) and one of the articles said that stocks were up because rumor has it that Spain will be requesting a bailout this weekend.

So broke sovereign requesting a bailout = stocks up I guess. What an absolute joke.

A subtle, yet powerful shift did occur on the 6th after all. It looks like Spain has quietly defaulted, a restructuring to strengthen the Eurozone will be attempted, and Bernanke's bluff has been rebuked. The tide has finally changed.

London Trader - Staggering 515 Tons of (paper) Gold Sold in 4 Hours.

It's looking more like the gold revaluation will happen in stages over the next few years. This phase should see up to $3,000/oz, the next $5,000-7,000, and the final somewhere in excess of $10,000 until fully reintegrated with the financial system.