Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 1547. (Read 2032281 times)

It's generally the other way around - lots of bears means the time is ripe for a bull. There are plenty of sellers and few buyers, so the sellers have no more room to push prices down while the buyers have plenty of room to run up.




The options fell short - couldn't quite break even despite the Feb rally. Bad timing there on my part, but I've noted that I'm typically early anyway (usually by 1/2 to 1 full cycle). You definitely have a honed nose for shorter trading scales.

On the other hand, the mining stocks are cash-flow positive with healthy dividends. Overall NAV from acquisitions since last August is about even, gainers and losers balancing out (AEM is one). It's a different story when looking at accumulation over the past few years, which is highly positive in addition to generating cash-flow.

Keep in mind - NO ETFs, NO LEVERAGE, PHYSICAL METAL ONLY.

Therefore, time is on my side. The same applies with Bitcoin. In fact, I'm expecting a hit on gold/silver tomorrow just as Bitcoin was assaulted today. Bitcoin has been leading the metals by about a day for quite some time now, and I am growing increasingly suspicious of this behaviour.

From a little earlier:


Fixed

That's why the prices we see today are an illusion. The numbers being given today are fabrications.

Contract != Physical

Because of that, paper contract prices can collapse while physical asset prices climb. Official sources probably will only quote paper prices, so unless you're producing or have some way of accessing relevant production cost (e.g. from a mining company shareholder report or a Chinese/Singaporean exchange), you won't know the real value of an asset. That's the true power the CME/COMEX/LBMA have - illusion.

Vlad's perspective is dead-on. Death by currency collapse. The short-game makes it look like gold is doomed, but the hidden movements will cause resumption of explosive volatility in exactly the opposite direction that you're expecting - until full separation, at which point we'll both be right: official prices will fall precipitously while physical metal premiums will skyrocket.

Keep picking the corners - you're damn good at it. Just keep a tight grip on the physical... and Bitcoin


For the short-term movements, he was definitely right.

I think most PM techs are neither clowns nor cons, they're simply looking at gold as a mere tradeable security. That's as bad as being a con clown. Prechter is one of them.

For valid analysis:
http://www.jsmineset.com/
http://edegrootinsights.blogspot.com/
http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/


The only generational action occurring is the USD losing its place as a global exchange medium. Both deflation and inflation take a back seat to increasing irrelevance; it's the greatest insult. Who cares what the USD does if nations stop using it? That makes it worthless no matter what - different dynamic.

Of course, as we agreed in the gold thread, our objectives are different.

i started that thread on Aug 9, 2011 gold hit $1782 and was 1.5 wks before the top.  who do you know who called it that close?

its had several devastating drops since then which i profited by shorting.  you're also seeing a series of lower highs and lower lows.

i also made it publicly clear in that same thread when i sold silver at at $49 and at an avg price of $44 last May.

i also called the top in the pm miners here:   https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.522374

i could just as easily say that if you invested at $49 per ounce of silver, you've suffered greatly.

Matthew; are you prepared for a generational ramp in the USD from the next deflationary wave?  everyone understands inflation.  hey, just print.  

Deflation is the more difficult argument to understand but you have to for your health.  there's even a thread over on Economics right now by a poster trying to understand its dynamic.  i suggest all of you read it. my original gold thread explains it even better.  

just look at the futures right now.  they explain it all; $DXY up, everything else down, stocks, gold, silver, oil.

If this is the discusssion you were talking about:
   https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/gold-i-smell-a-trap-35956
I don't see any proof that you were "more right":
  

Gold was around 1600 last August , and today it's around 1660, it wasn't a trap, and it's not collapsing.

Thanks to Bob Prechter, it's now my firm belief that most PM technicians are either clown artists or con artists, with very few exceptions.  

I believe with silver dollars, an ounce of silver was equivalent to $1.29?

Looks like it was the USD that crashed, silver no.

i'm sure there is nothing i can say to convince you otherwise.

Most people do not know about or understand the futures manipulations in silver. If they did there would be a lot more buying of physical silver.

Can you explain how silver is Busted when the return is over 18 Percent and even if its being heavily manipulated? Silver is so undervalue I'm actually waiting till it drops more so I can buy more physical and keep stacking. Problem with Silver is people have no clue that its actual real money.

Silver isn't gold. There was a small bubble in silver (Because it came and went quick) but not gold. Silver (and gold) is being held back dramatically by price manipulators in the futures markets. I'm working on the impression that manipulators can only scare investors away and suppress the prices with naked shorts for so long; reality will eventually win. People scared away from the silver crash from last year may eventually come back in as inevitability arises.

yes it is and badly so.  who's been more right since last August, your experts or me?  the only chart not completely busted in the pm space is gold but soon it will be too.  everything else has been destroyed; majors and junior miners and silver itself.

you don't realize it yet but you already had your parabola; last August.

The silver chart is busted?


How the USD compares to other currencies relates to gold and silver?

how much punishment are you willing to take?  i'd advise you to go back to my original gold thread and read about the primacy of the USD and how it affects all assets including gold/silver.

the silver chart is BUSTED.  it leads gold.  don't be a hero.

The experts say that if gold was in a bubble, mining stocks would be doing extremely well. That's a point to make out.

The thing about mining stocks is that they are much more risky but can potentially give high returns if you know which ones to pick (When looking at explorers in particular). Buying physical gold is the safe option.

but i can tell you from my Gold Thread back in August that many of my critics, some of whom are showing up here again like Matthew, were heavily marketing pm mining stocks and they continue to do so.  i don't blame them b/c this is what the so called pundit experts are doing as well.  they've been destroyed.  and IMO they are leading the pm price down.

edit:  can u imagine if AAPL rolls from here and takes down stocks?  pm's will get smashed.

mining stocks and physical are linked.  they won't disconnect.

+1
With bitcoin, who needs mining stock?
Good PM mining companies are far and few between. There are too many crooks in this field, many are so-called "life style" companies, management team maintains their luxurious lifestyle at the expense of share holder values and stock dilution. 

Some of the keenest minds in the PM space say to expect significant volitility (and way higher prices.)  I've been waiting for $100 down days and they won't bother me.  I'll bail almost 100% when I see the signs of a bubble (see MathewLM), underlying structural changes influencing the value of PMs, or great difficulties associated with holding them (i.e., confiscation.)

To me PM mining stocks are just more pieces of paper and I've thus got close to zero interest in them.  I toyed with the idea of doing some short term gambling with them but then I became aware of Bitcoin (as a way to lose all my speculative investment.)  Bitcoin fits the speculation need nicely, and has the added benefit that my assets are completely within my control and the technology itself could change the world for the better in certain circumstances.

I am looking forward to it. I have a few sell-put, buy-call orders badly need to be filled.
Don't worry, it's all my play money.

hey, it's hard enough to get the right direction on things let alone the magnitude.

but you guys are laughing prematurely.  it ain't over yet.

i'm betting on several more of those down $100 days coming in the near future.

edit:  i know several of you guys have been pumping pm mining stocks ever since i started the other Gold thread last August.  i told you to get out then.  how's that going?

Tops of bubbles are largely identifiable from large buying interest, parabolic price action and when the asset is becomes largely owned. So it looks to me that AAPL is currently somewhere in a bubble and likely near the top without looking too much into it.

But is gold in a bubble? Does everyone own it? Has there been parabolic price action? Is there a lot of buying interest?

Look at the media, if they are all saying "buy gold", it's probably going to be extremely overbought and in some sort of bubble.

Isn't an uninhibited bull run only really possible when there are basically no bears?

Or will there always be bears?