Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 480.

inca

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Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on February 26, 2015, 12:52:57 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 12:28:48 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging. They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.

In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?

The narrow money supply is a tiny amount compared to the leviathon of credit money.

hdbuck

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Quote from: Melbustus on February 26, 2015, 03:16:27 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 02:18:59 AM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on February 26, 2015, 12:52:57 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 12:28:48 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging. They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.

In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?

less than 10% of U.S. dollars are created by Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. The rest are created when fractional reserve banks lend out demand deposits, meaning the money is in two places at once. (in your checking account and with the loan recipient). This is the money multiplier. But when banks stop lending as they did in 2008, the existing loans still are getting paid back so the money created out of thin air disappears. The money multiplier runs in reverse. Less money chasing the same amount of goods and services= deflation.

Indeed. The '08-'09 crisis showed an impressive drop that hasn't recovered: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

So what do we think happens if/when it *does* recover, after base-money has been expanded by $Ts? Can and will the Fed contract *perfectly*? This all boils down to how well they can thread the needle.

I don't know about you guys, but my bet is that a small group of people can't perfectly handle an increasingly complex (mathematically chaotic) system with almost absolute perfection over arbitrarily long time-periods.

That said, the only hope is an unprecedented US-tech driven multi-decade global expansion (which can actually happen if regulators and congress back off for a while).

You are underestimating the prevalence of the status quo and the propension of humans to adapt to terrible conditions.
There is quite a margin left to squeeze on the majority of US/EU citizens..

Sure Yellen seems quite itchy lately, but eh, saul goodman^TM..

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/janet-yellen-freaking-out-about-audit-fed-%E2%80%93-here-are-100-reasons-why-she-should-be

Melbustus

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Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 02:18:59 AM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on February 26, 2015, 12:52:57 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 12:28:48 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging. They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.

In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?

less than 10% of U.S. dollars are created by Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. The rest are created when fractional reserve banks lend out demand deposits, meaning the money is in two places at once. (in your checking account and with the loan recipient). This is the money multiplier. But when banks stop lending as they did in 2008, the existing loans still are getting paid back so the money created out of thin air disappears. The money multiplier runs in reverse. Less money chasing the same amount of goods and services= deflation.

Indeed. The '08-'09 crisis showed an impressive drop that hasn't recovered: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MULT

So what do we think happens if/when it *does* recover, after base-money has been expanded by $Ts? Can and will the Fed contract *perfectly*? This all boils down to how well they can thread the needle.

I don't know about you guys, but my bet is that a small group of people can't perfectly handle an increasingly complex (mathematically chaotic) system with almost absolute perfection over arbitrarily long time-periods.

That said, the only hope is an unprecedented US-tech driven multi-decade global expansion (which can actually happen if regulators and congress back off for a while).

billyjoeallen

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Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on February 26, 2015, 12:52:57 AM

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 12:28:48 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging. They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.

In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?

less than 10% of U.S. dollars are created by Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion. The rest are created when fractional reserve banks lend out demand deposits, meaning the money is in two places at once. (in your checking account and with the loan recipient). This is the money multiplier. But when banks stop lending as they did in 2008, the existing loans still are getting paid back so the money created out of thin air disappears. The money multiplier runs in reverse. Less money chasing the same amount of goods and services= deflation.

Adrian-x

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Activity: 1372

Merit: 1000

Quote from: hdbuck on February 25, 2015, 01:27:51 PM

This Is What Happens To Gold Incondition rency Crisis Redux:

> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-25/what-happens-gold-currency-crisis-redux

sadly bitcoin stays still.

Sadly over 4000 Bitcoin ATM's go unused and the US backed government shipped all there gold over to the US.

lunarboy

hero member

Activity: 544

Merit: 500

Quote from: justusranvier on February 25, 2015, 10:03:28 PM

With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

Wait for the EU QE madness to end first ... then I think you might be on to something. mid 2016 ;-)

just in time for the next halving Tongue

Cconvert2G36

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: billyjoeallen on February 26, 2015, 12:28:48 AM

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging. They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.

In the US... They've doubled the money supply in the last decade, and the only tool is printing more, where does deflation come in, in this equation?

billyjoeallen

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Activity: 1106

Merit: 1007

Hide your women

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It could easily be much worse. Last time the Fed slashed interest rates to zero to stop the hemorrhaging. They are STILL at zero seven years later. There are very few bullets left in the gun without resorting to outright counterfeiting. This has already started in Japan and Europe (quantitative easing).

The entire system is leveraged to the hilt and nothing will stop the deflationary pressure when the money multiplier of fractional reserve lending runs in reverse. There could be bank holidays. After that, capital controls.

This will be much different than what's happening in Ukraine. It will be a deflationary collapse.

HeliKopterBen

hero member

Activity: 622

Merit: 500

Quote from: sidhujag on February 25, 2015, 11:02:42 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on February 25, 2015, 10:03:28 PM

With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

I called for USD volatility back in July and it looks like we got the deflation variety so far. What is interesting is that the USD is above the highs in 2009 without the collapse in stocks. This trend could continue for a while but eventually I suspect stocks will turn down prompting another round of QE.

Quote from: HeliKopterBen on July 15, 2014, 04:14:27 PM

Currencies around the world are beginning to collapse: Russian Ruble, Ukrainian hryvnia, Swiss Franc debacle, and uprecedented easing. This may result in a cascading effect, beginning with fiat currencies of smaller countries but eventually encompassing larger, more well-known currencies such as the euro and the dollar. Bitcoin and potentially a select few other digital currencies should rise from the ashes as dominant world currencies.

Cconvert2G36

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: sidhujag on February 25, 2015, 11:02:42 PM

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on February 25, 2015, 10:49:06 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on February 25, 2015, 10:34:22 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on February 25, 2015, 10:03:28 PM

With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

Parabolic deflation of USD?... What forum am I on?!

Look at the charts, read between the lines..

Wow, burn.

sidhujag

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Activity: 2044

Merit: 1005

Quote from: Cconvert2G36 on February 25, 2015, 10:49:06 PM

Quote from: sidhujag on February 25, 2015, 10:34:22 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on February 25, 2015, 10:03:28 PM

With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

Parabolic deflation of USD?... What forum am I on?!

Look at the charts, read between the lines..

Cconvert2G36

sr. member

Activity: 392

Merit: 250

Quote from: sidhujag on February 25, 2015, 10:34:22 PM

Quote from: justusranvier on February 25, 2015, 10:03:28 PM

With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

Parabolic deflation of USD?... What forum am I on?!

justusranvier

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Activity: 1400

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Fed policy is, "how can we enrich the insiders by screwing everyone else?"

sidhujag

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Quote from: justusranvier on February 25, 2015, 10:03:28 PM

With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

No sense in qe right now as economy is seemingly stable.. it will happen once usd goes parabolic

justusranvier

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With as many people predicting a stock crash, I wouldn't be surprised to see another QE appear just in time to screw everyone who is sensibly short.

_mr_e

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Could someone explain what is happening here: http://mempool.info/pools

A few weeks ago that chart was starting to look really good, now this massive unknown chunk is coming out of nowhere.

Pruden

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Activity: 496

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Spanish Bitcoin trader

Quote from: molecular on February 25, 2015, 04:37:47 PM

Quote from: silverfuture on February 25, 2015, 04:14:28 PM

Opinion: Stock-market crash of 2016: The countdown begins

Dow will drop 50% as market replays 2008, 2000 and 1929

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-crash-of-2016-the-countdown-begins-2015-02-25?mod=MW_story_recommended_default

Any thoughts?

It's always next year...

...until it's NOW.

Not NOW, mind you. Conditions have improved a lot in the last few weeks, the bull market could easily survive 2015. In any case, this will end in a crash. Of course. Median stock valuation is higher than in 2000, when the huge, yet-to-be-reached-again overvaluation was concentrated in a couple of sectors. This, on the other hand, is the bubble of everything, as NYT aptly headlined.

uki

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