My quick and dirty valuation of BTC in 2020 is also based on M2. Not completely incomprehensible that BTC could be 5% of M2 by 2020, or $2300 or so per BTC.
This would imply that you're also predicting a significant change in bitcoin's historical growth rate
starting now. What would make you believe that growth would be vastly slower moving forward?
Peter, (correct me if I'm wrong but isn't that dot at about $4000 not $2300) that aside when I say the graph it looked a lot like the Bitcoin inflation curve, giving this meager projection more validity.
It got me thinking that the growth in network value and demand with a fixed supply (diminishing inflation) that the relationship would decouple over time as the price would rise as supply shrinks, and that wasn't evident in your model.
I guess that is what Marcus was thinking here by using the market cap which accommodates inflation.
Total BTC value (CAP) and number BTC TXS squared excluding popular addresses (with a simple exponential fit line). Data from Blockchain.info.
On current trend of ~4years, CAP ~$100 billion Aug. 2015, $1 Trillion Aug. 2016 (after next halving) ... unless TXS hit some limit.
Adrian, the Metcalfe value charts I plot always use
market cap, including this one. I just annotated it with the $2300/BTC prediction made earlier in the thread to visually show the sharp decline in the growth rate that such a prediction implied.
Here's the math to explain why the point is at ~$4 x 10^10:
In 2020, there should be approximately 18 million or so coins: (18x10^6 BTC) x ($2300/BTC) ~ $42 billion ~ $4x10^10, as indicated. So, yes, the chart is correct.
