Topic: Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 879. (Read 2032266 times)

It could be even simpler, for example if an even larger OTC deal were being made, and that was based on the exchange price.

you seriously believe that?  flew the cash in?  got someone out of bed and got all that cash there in <6h?  to Slovenia?  and how well do you know this guy?  there are a lot of big talkers on the interwebz.

all he said is this: "Fiat arrives (finally.)"  did he actually say he bought the wall?

no, no.  it's WAY more likely Pantera Capital, being an equity owner and close associate of the owners, would be the ones there waiting with large amounts of fiat.

correct.  given that you believe there has been a manipulator taking down prices since June. 

Blitz, you know me better than that.  back in 2011, i was the one arguing against any manipulation back then and ever since.  this is the only event in which i've invoked a manipulator mechanism.

and if there has been a manipulator, Pantera is the logical entity with the strategic positioning in place to pull it off.  leave tons of BTC and fiat on the exchange in preparation and simply sell down the market until the market capitulates, then buy back.  rather simple, really, which is also why i like it.

Nope. If he had the cash there,  he likely would have eaten the whole wall in  a couple bites. As it was it took 6 or so hours, and he got less than half of it.  
Money talks. He got somebody out of bed, or flew in with a suitcase full of cash, who knows, he didn't share details - but he has in the past.

I don't really dismiss conspired multi-month massive manipulation per se, I just think that a) it's unlikely and b) even if it were true, it just means that the conditions of Bitcoin allowed it to be manipulated. Study the conditions, describe degree of susceptibility to manipulation.

What do you mean, "way more than what he said"? I just meant to say that his post isn't proof that whoever is behind his account initiated the buy because it happened after the buy was made. It could be indicative though, given he showed activity 2-3 minutes post buy; we already know he has access to 40k coins and I'm certain he did buy at various points in the past bubble when he said he did. BTW, the buy was actually only a fifth of the original 30k wall (about 6k), and this along with the fact that it took until Monday morning does seem to indicate that it was actually fresh funds, therefore Loaded fits the narrative.

I don't know if he knew, I doubt he did. I'd assume it was a routine transfer and thus a lucky coincidence.

Anyway, this is all fruitless discussion I normally don't participate in, but it can be fun to do so. It just probably won't deliver any insight that'll make us more money.

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said. 

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?

let's assume for a moment that Loaded meant way more than what he said. 

who is more likely to keep large amounts of fiat at Bitstamp, Pantera or some random internet guy name Loaded?

and just how did Loaded initiate a wire, let's say Friday, not knowing 30K BTC would be up for sale on Sunday?  pure luck?

Fine, I'll do it. Loaded posted 07:12:33 UTC

Buy was between 7:05 and 07:10 UTC (too lazy to narrow down further), therefore it isn't proof. Too bad, now we will never know for sure.

who knows how to translate Slovenian time to forum time?

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?

Stephen Gornick pm'd me this morning and informed me about the retweet problem.  so i figured out how to undo that setting.  sorry!

i vaguely recall someone using the initials "RT" in a message, was that you?  i just realized that means "retweet".

This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "desert" that Pantera was after the entire time.  Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time.  Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time )

anyways, all this guy Loaded says is that his fiat has arrived.  and from that everyone assumes he is the one who took down the wall?

Off topic: I could not RT you, I unfollowed and followed back and now I can! Weird 

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

Maybe it was monday in whatever part of the world he was in at that point.

ok, i'm going to have to refine my conspiracy theory on the BearWhale.  he is a distraction.  i now think the main benefactor of a manufactured selloff was economic actor Pantera Capital.

let me further say, this type of analysis is purely in fun and based on anecdotes. i am not accusing them of anything and will be happy to be corrected.  if i'm right, i don't necessarily have anything against them for manipulating the market like i'm theorizing.  i just find this one of the more interesting events in Bitcoin history and find it fun to theorize how and why it happened:

developments since the selloff that have occurred after my original theory about it being a non-economic actor:

1.  Dan Moorehead @dan_pantera, the day after the selloff, comes out with a detailed series of tweets focusing attention on the movements of address 159SCycgn8weAy2XGUEhD6V1RTFni7E3iq convincing me that the 30K dumper was indeed a whale who simply capitulated to the selloff pressure:

https://twitter.com/dan_pantera

2.  Pantera Capital, 2 days after the selloff, issues not only one but two uber bullish reports on Bitcoin.  its Bitcoin vs Gold report unapologetically and unabashedly forecasting $4.3M/BTC.  they don't normally publish this frequently:

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Bitcoin-vs-Gold.pdf

https://cdn.panteracapital.com/wp-content/uploads/Pantera-Bitcoin-Letter-September-2014.pdf

associated data and assumptions:

1.  @PanteraCapital & @RonGlantz popped up as my Twitter followers since spring/summer and i know they follow this thread.  here's the tinfoil stuff and it's truly not meant to feed my ego but since June, i've had the funny feeling that very often when i would put up a bullish post, it was immediately met with a selloff.  it got so bad that @kLee1977 told me "you bring bad luck!" to which i replied:

"@kLee1977 actually, u know wht? i bet those ask wall manipulators key off bulltards like me. long term tho, i'd bet on me "

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/510080984243765248

2.  the day of the selloff, Oct 5, i sent this tweet to @PanteraCapital @BitstampUSD @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric:

"hey @PanteraCapital. u guys r invested in @BitstampUSD. y don't u ask @damijanmerlak & @nejc_kodric whats goin on with the huge wall?"

https://twitter.com/cypherdoc2/status/518969201814683648

never got a response from any of them.  i would have expected at least a denial.

3.  i think since June, Pantera used it's known considerable BTC resources obtained in the early days of Bitcoin, to sell/short down the market with a bot and occasional 1000 BTC chunks, keying off known bulls like myself to knock the market down with the goal of causing a whale or whales to finally capitulate, at which time they'd buy back the sold coins or cover shorted coins back at a cheaper price, at what turned out to be in this case @$300.  i doubt they had a specific price point; they were simply hunting for a large selloff source from a weak whale.

4.  a large economic actor like Pantera could afford to hire forum and Reddit trolls to help talk down the price.  no matter what anyone says, this type of trolling is effective in destroying confidence.  it is also well known that when there are big price moves either way ppl come to these meeting places to find out what's going on.  the fact that Severro, antibitcoinconsortium, falllling, etc. have all abruptly disappeared since Sunday indicate to me they were on hire by someone with substantial resources to manipulate the market.

5.  Pantera Capital is the major investor in Bitstamp and clearly has a close relationship with its founders.  only they would have the resources and confidence to leave large amounts of BTC and fiat on an unregulated exchange awaiting opportunities, manufactured or otherwise, considering what happened to mtgox clients.  

now it's time for them to talk the price up with bullish reports.

i welcome any thoughts or criticisms.

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night?  gox wires didn't work that way.  workers were off on weekends.

More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/sevvero-159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently?

PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter.