Gold collapsing. Bitcoin UP. - page 880.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: explorer on October 08, 2014, 02:50:43 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 02:38:36 PM

Quote from: explorer on October 08, 2014, 02:36:55 PM

Quote from: N12 on October 08, 2014, 02:10:31 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 02:09:49 PM

how likely is it that an unregulated exchange in Slovenia has $9-10M sitting around on its exchange waiting to be mobilized on a Sunday?

What do you think it means? Also, a much smaller amount than 30k was bought in one gulp near the end, I think it was less than 10k BTC, so it's more likely.

It appeared to me that the last 12 - 14k of the wall was primarily scooped up by Loaded.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.9100535

I watched the wall from the first dump, along with the WO thread, and the timing fit. With nobody making outright claims, it seems reasonable given his history...

Loaded says this on Monday, the day after the wall got taken down.

Actually it was within a few minutes.

how does fiat arrive on a Sunday night? gox wires didn't work that way. workers were off on weekends.

N12

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:45:59 PM

Quote from: N12 on October 08, 2014, 03:34:33 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 08, 2014, 03:31:29 PM

Blitz is part of it Shocked

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/moderator-blitz-is-suspected-of-being-paid-or-fooled-by-permabulls-scammers-809325

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday. sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.

More evidence? I forgot, https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/sevvero-159160 was also banned (temporarily). Name some others that suspiciously discontinued their activity, perhaps they too were banned recently?

PS: fallling is by far the worst spammer of the bunch, so I consider him the prime indicator in this matter.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: N12 on October 08, 2014, 03:34:33 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 08, 2014, 03:31:29 PM

Blitz is part of it Shocked

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/moderator-blitz-is-suspected-of-being-paid-or-fooled-by-permabulls-scammers-809325

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy

just b/c you present a small piece of evidence about a certain ban i wasn't aware of, doesn't make the whole theory go out the window.

there has been a NOTICEABLE drop in the trolling posts since Sunday. sure, there are a few guys floating around but they could just be altscam or POS proponents, who knows.

N12

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Trolls are pro trend, they will always follow the price rather than lead. I don't believe in a big activity of paid actors on this forum. Trolls are typically just minor sadists who enjoy irritating others.

I also like the Pantera part. It's very believable to me that they had the ability to bite the wall on Sunday night/early Monday because they are investors in the exchange. However, Loaded made a post to the effect that his fiat had arrived around the time of buy. I'm too lazy to check the exact time of post and buy because I just don't much care who bought it. And again, don't forget that more than 2/3 of the 30k have likely not been eaten by a single actor, at least not in a single trade. 1) It was bought, 2) We can infer why it was bought, that's enough for my purposes.

Peter R

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Quote from: N12 on October 08, 2014, 03:30:14 PM

Quote from: Peter R on October 08, 2014, 03:26:34 PM

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time. Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time

)

You did read my post, yes? It serves nothing to ignore reality (or at least an important piece of it) to uphold the narrative for a preconceived and wished for idea.

Time to move the goalposts. Cheesy

Yes I did read your post Blitz, in fact, I believe most of us knew that fallllling had been banned. Cypher's point still stands, for there's been a sharp drop in the intensity of trolling since the 30k wall was eaten.

Regardless of the trolls, what I like about the theory in particular (that I didn't know until now) are the details regarding Pantera's relationship with BitStamp. This make two things more believable: (1) Pantera may have had some knowledge of the fiat balances that weekend on BitStamp as well as the propensity of the account holders to use them (giving Pantera confidence to nibble the wall rather than gulp it in a single bite thereby exposing their strategy), (2) Pantera would be more confident holding large balances on BitStamp than other investors.

N12

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Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 08, 2014, 03:31:29 PM

Blitz is part of it Shocked

Exactly, and to make it more believable, I even created this thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/moderator-blitz-is-suspected-of-being-paid-or-fooled-by-permabulls-scammers-809325

I just noticed that cypherdoc actually posted there. So he actually already knows that the most notorious of bearish trolls is actually still posting. Then again, perhaps the conspirator(s) still let that account post to maintain minimum plausibility. Right? Cheesy

Ivanhoe

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Blitz is part of it Shocked

N12

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Quote from: Peter R on October 08, 2014, 03:26:34 PM

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time. Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time

)

You did read my post, yes? It serves nothing to ignore reality (or at least an important piece of it) to uphold the narrative for a preconceived and wished for idea.

Time to move the goalposts. Cheesy

Peter R

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This is the most plausible theory I've heard to date, Cypher.

But let me get this straight: you're suggesting that the 30k wall belonged to a panicking early adopter and was in fact the "dessert" that Pantera was after the entire time. Correct?

So, basically, they got as much cheap coins as they could hope for, fired the trolls, and are now talking the price back up (hah maybe now that you posted this they'll do the opposite and take us down one more time. Perhaps they'll scare some coins out of you next time

)

N12

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:10:52 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 08, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:02:31 PM

this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

https://i.imgur.com/n4w5iuZ.png

Here's another one.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/sevvero-159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4. they just disappeared (were dismissed).

No offense, but you're such a conspiracy nut often times. Cheesy

He was banned on that date. That's why he pops up with new accounts all the time. He's actually still posting, but he and his new posts just get nuked from the forum.

solex

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:08:55 PM

Quote from: Melbustus on October 08, 2014, 02:53:26 PM

Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.

6 hours on a Sunday is not enough time, nor even a possible time, to set up an OTC trade of that magnitude.

those things take days, if not weeks to negotiate and setup for that amount.

if you look at the address and read Dan Moorehead's tweets, the 30K BTC were transferred to Bitstamp just before the wall went up on Sunday and the coins originating from that address were accumulated from April 2013.

That 30k sell looked like it was a panicked one-off decision, by a non-trader who was suffering from seeing a paper holding of $30m decrease steadily to $10m. Greed and fear all over again. The decline to $300 had a lot of people thinking that $200 or even $100 was imminent. It is reasonable that at least one of those people had a large holding and acted accordingly.

cypherdoc

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here's the BearWhale address, which suggests to me the seller wasn't involved in a conspiracy:

Ivanhoe

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:10:52 PM

Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 08, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:02:31 PM

this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

Here's another one.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/sevvero-159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4. they just disappeared (were dismissed).

There are lot's of account for sale, maybe this was one of those.
It's far fetched, but a possibility.

_mr_e

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Andreas A. in front of the Canadian Senate in 5 minutes!

http://senparlvu.parl.gc.ca/Guide.aspx?viewmode=4&categoryid=-1&eventid=9692&Language=E

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Ivanhoe on October 08, 2014, 03:05:17 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:02:31 PM

this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

Here's another one.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/sevvero-159160

little harder to explain his register date but quite suspicious that he stops posting on Oct 4. they just disappeared (were dismissed).

blaaaaacksuit

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Who cares?

Definitely agree that the trolls were part of whatever this smack down was all about. If they start posting again watch out!

explorer

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Quote from: 600watt on October 08, 2014, 03:04:37 PM

Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:02:31 PM

this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

i thought the guys got banned ? no ?

I'll have to Check my ignore list, but we're there not falling accounts with varying number of L's as they were banned ? The latest still_fall(l? )ing was just the other day. Nothing proves it to be the same actor, mind you.

cypherdoc

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Quote from: Melbustus on October 08, 2014, 02:53:26 PM

Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.

6 hours on a Sunday is not enough time, nor even a possible time, to set up an OTC trade of that magnitude.

those things take days, if not weeks to negotiate and setup for that amount.

if you look at the address and read Dan Moorehead's tweets, the 30K BTC were transferred to Bitstamp just before the wall went up on Sunday and the coins originating from that address were accumulated from April 2013.

Ivanhoe

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Quote from: cypherdoc on October 08, 2014, 03:02:31 PM

this is interesting. falllling registers here on the forum May 27, 2014 with last post Oct 4, 2014.

i didn't even notice this until now but it happens to match my theory that a coordinated selloff enabled by trolls started at the peak in June:

Here's another one.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/user/sevvero-159160

explorer

legendary

Activity: 2016

Merit: 1259

Quote from: Melbustus on October 08, 2014, 02:53:26 PM

Well, my theory is just pointing out that placing the wall originally at 280 (where it was destabilizing the market), then moving to 320 (where it was getting action), then to 300 isn't rational *unless* you're trying to set up some OTC trade in the other direction and need a "stable" multi-hour average on Bitstamp as a pricing reference for the OTC trade. So to fit that with your theory, you could still argue that it was Pantera executing the final load-up via such an OTC trade, and the 30k wall was theirs and simply necessary for the price-fix. Still fits with your point asking who would trust an unregulated Slovenian exchange with 30kBTC...

Anyway, I honestly don't know what to think. I don't really understand moving the wall from $320 to $300 outside of the price-fix OTC-buy theory which seems a little complicated for my usual liking. But, as I repeatedly say, I'm not a trader, so I have little instinct for how much shenanigans like that actually happen. Maybe it's more common than I think.

At 320 and 310 there was still a fair bit of action under the wall. When it got snugged up with the 299.99 bid wall, it became flavor of the day...

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