What exactly prompted you to upgrade Bitmain's pre-order status anyways? The L1 pre-order is still part of this current generation, and they haven't released a new generation.
And I agree with SP-tech. They claim to sell next gen out of hand. If they even allude to changing this strategy and offering pre-orders, you can go ahead and down-grade on the spot. Why is Bitmain getting preferential treatment in this pre-order category?
So these are very different scenarios. I'll quote the criteria again so you know what I'm talking about.
Preorders are extremely bad for the industry and put all the financial risk on the buyer. This criterion does not act as a snapshot, but a longer term (both past and future) "does
this company engage in preorders". A company who's business model relies on preorders to fund development and new generations is still considered to utilise preorders even if
they intermediately sell some products from stock. Transitional scores may be used when companies have promised the exclusion of preorders but have yet to prove their business
model can operate without them.
What is essentially proposed here is that there are two conditions that must be true to be considered non preorder. The first is don't participate in preorders in the past or future within reasonable timescales. The exact time period is entirely subjective as its not stated specifically, but its not really a problem. The second condition is that the business model must be able to support preorders otherwise you get fishtailing. Imagine a company which between every preordered generation they had some left over stock they sold from stock. Are they a "no" preorder company even when everything is funded on preorders? That company only exists and can continue to exist by using preorders.
So now we've set out 2 conditions, as well as transition arrangements when one is moving from preorders to no preorders. Lets look at how it applies to the two companies.
BitmainIs there any evidence that Bitmain wants to be a preorder company? No. L1 was a bad decision and they knew that almost immediately. As soon as L1 was preordered, Bitmain lost its "no" preorders status.
When did they last take preorders? Novemberish, 3+ months ago.
Have customers been negatively impacted by preorders? No. When the scypt market failed, they pulled the plug to the benefit of the customer rather than locking people into negative prices. At the same time, they over refunded customers over how much they paid (105-110% IIRC). On top of that, because they were $ linked orders the customer made significantly more by being cancelled.
Were L1 preorders any significant amount of money? No. Compared to S3 S4 S5 C1 etc it was a meaningless amount.
So from that above, Bitmain satisfies the first condition. They held the penalty from preordering L1s for 4-5 months.
Does Bitmain have to prove that its business model can support a non-preorder model? No because we already know it can. That company is incredibly funded and can essentially do what its want. This is evidenced by HUGE non preorder 28nm runs and liquidity. There is no question that Bitmain can bring out products without needing preorders or investment.
Therefore Bitmain has satisfied both conditions and can be considered a non preorder company again.
SpondooliesIs there any evidence that Spondoolies wants to be a preorder company? They say no, but I was troubled as to what happened in the first generation and its something I discussed with them at the time. Even when they were selling 'in hand' hardware via batches [fine], some batches were being sold 3-4 months in advance alongside future generation preorders. That's dangerous territory and that need for cash is worrisome.
When did they last take preorders? Probably Oct, but they were still delivering preordered units until December.
Have customers been negatively impacted by preorders? Yes. SP10's were preordered a sufficiently long period that there was unacceptable risk put on the consumer. SP30's were preordered far into the future and came in significantly under spec and late. SP31s came in under spec.
So from the above, Spondoolies is at best a boarderline satisfaction of the first condition. This is carried forward though and its considered to be a pass.
Spondoolies fails on the second condition. With all the want in the world, they just can't afford to run another generation without significant preorders, OR, significant investment. There is no evidence that their current business model can do preorders. You'll likely see in the coming months how this plays out. Essentially what this means is that Spondoolies needs to raise money, and its more than possible. That is why they're not simply swatted down and remain in a preorder score, they're given a transitional score which gives them the benefit of the doubt and the ability to prove they can raise the money.
Therefore Spondoolies has NOT satisfied both conditions and can not be considered a non preorder
at this time.
And just for the record, I have no problem with discussing issues when its posed in this fashion. No one is name calling and an adult discussion is proposed. Now if there is an issue we can talk it out and work out what to do next
for the better of the community.
