Topic: Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now - page 3. (Read 16906 times)

Miners are acutely aware of the halving and likely are taking steps to deal with it. They are calculating whether or not they can take a 50% pay cut in 2 months. I don't believe there are any mitigating factors to that, other than the USD price pushing significantly higher. I can't imagine a miner who would want the price of bitcoin to go down? So 99.99% of miners want the price to stay high, and there is no regulation of the exchanges (not saying there should be). Therefore someone can buy their own coins (or a buddy's) OVER AND OVER at a progressively higher price. Why wouldn't at least SOMEONE be doing this?

LOL, no it does not make sense.  The second you get to the sentence where he claims the price of Bitcoin is going to go to $300 for the halving, anyone with a brain can tell it's a complete bullshit post.  Only an idiot would short the halving (MatTheCat - not once, but twice and lost).  It's some jackass trader stuck in a short squeeze posting jibberish because he thinks people will listen to him.

Your logic, like the article, seems to attempt to over generalize the behavior of miners, here, and also seems to get wrong their behaviors based on long and short term incentives.  I think that we have to zoom out a bit, and try not to be so macro-predictive in our analysis. 

Even though miners are increasingly becoming big monied and increasingly capital intensive, they remain a fairly eclectic group in terms of individual mining, pool mining and business mining farms, yet, sure, they share several commonalities in terms of making investments towards both long and short term profits.  There may be some miners who cash out their bitcoins right away and on an ongoing basis in order to keep their business's profitable, short term and long term.  Also, there are some who hold some portion of their bitcoins based on speculation (which may or may not end up being correct). 

There is no real actual evidence that miners are responsible for pumping the bitcoin price up, even though they are likely self-interested, and bitcoin naysayers like to spread around some of these kinds of simplified logic scenarios, such as miners are selling to themselves to pump up the price.  Makes little sense in terms of explaining overall price performance and various networking effects of bitcoin that continue to expand. 

To put too much emphasis on halvening is just screwy logic because some miners are going to be more efficient than others and they are going to incorporate some amount of speculation and diversification of investment in order to attempt to keep their business profitable, and some miners are going to miscalculate and have to either revamp or get out of the game.  Overall there are too many other factors (and some of them unknown or unknowable based on how seg wit and other developments will play out) that will likely cause demands on bitcoins and upward price pressures that will even allow relatively inefficient miners to stay in the bitcoin mining game longer than otherwise may be predicted, and miners are going to continue to reformulate various strategies in the space in order to attempt to increase their profits, whether that be creative pooling or other crypto space diversifications.

I'm not saying I agree with him necessarily, but I do feel like he has some points. I think technical analysis is horsecrap, but this makes sense:

Price will need to double to keep miners' profit level. They're already pumping the price, so how much higher can they pump? Basically miners are going to take a hit. Also I agree that a global slowdown is imminent after the US election. This won't necessarily be good for bitcoin, unless there is high inflation. Given that the central banks have inflated for 8 years straight, inflation may not continue.

God, these posts are hilarious to read.  This guy is talking like the charts of anything on the planet are interchangable and it doesn't matter if he's trading Bitcoin, corn, or uranium.  All markets have their own unique and somewhat predictable ways.  Anyone that deals with Bitcoin on a regular basis knows where the support hard floors are on this that have no chance of being breached.  He's a vampire and thought he was allowed to drink some blood because he conjured "a trend" that doesn't exist, which he believed would allow him to slide into some impossible number to hit.

He shorted and lost.  Now he's rage posting saying we should all stop buying Bitcoin because it might cause a miner somewhere in Timbuktu to profit.  That part of the argument was even dumber.  We aren't "pumping Bitcoin for miners".  Miners don't have an infinite number of coins to dump like it's a Lehman Brothers fire sale.  75% of Bitcoin has already been mined and inflation is going from 8% to 4% with halving.

These unsuccessful vampires really just need to fuck off and go find a real job besides wealth extraction.  But since they have no idea how to traverse this market at all, I'd prefer they stay so they can just donate money to us with failed trades.  I could go on for hours about this but I just don't feel like typing anymore because these people are fucking pathetic.

It took me almost 20 minutes to read this whole thread and I'm debt with everybody (mostly) who contributed here. I had very confused ideas about the halving while now I feel a bit more informed about what I will have to consider as a btc invested guy and btc tech lover.
More importantly I think I know better about ETH as well.

roach, would you care to reply to this guy's claims?

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-trading-block-reward-halving/

I looked around trying to quantify areas of concentration of sig ad spammers and there seemed to be tons in the general section and altcoin section, but not many seemed to post in things like Adam's long ass thread.

I've noticed the latest shill tactic is to constantly bump old topics that say stuff like "will the price of $300 hold" haha.

r0ach, your chicken began recovering 

Out of my 29 last posts you find this post, where I expressed my satisfaction in a calm and restrained manner, after multiplying my crypto wealth about +3x (at the time of the post). And you call me a coked up used car salesman in the context of this place, where people get uncontrollably euphoric after a 7% rise in bitcoin value?

Merv, do you read the bullshit you type?


That looks like it was written by a used car salesmen snorting cocaine while filling out an application to become a politician.  You and your pinky ring can get the fuck out.

Breaking the illusions of the corrupt is a good sport.

You again. Why are you here?

How many unicorn horns have you got stuck through your pumpkinhead already? ...

Erhm.. you realize that people can actually check my post history and see that you're lying?

Nice try, but nobody is going to buy your Eth scamcoin in lieu of BTC.  Your post history is pages upon pages of claiming BTC will crash while Eth will go up.  You're either a paid shill or underwater Ethereum scam victim.


Fuck you and your scamcoins.

Read it and weep:

The Ethereum Paradox:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/the-ethereum-paradox-1361602

I wonder.. what will be the next unicorn for bitcoiners after the halving...

There have always been some fantastic excuse on why should people buy bitcoin. You have to buy bitcoin because Wall Street is waiting to pour in billions...you have to buy because after ETF, Wall Street will pour in billions.... you have to buy because the Gemini exchange will soon open and then Wall Street will pour in billions... you have to buy because of the halving will make everyone pour in billions. We have heard it all.

Any theories on what will be the next main sales pitch to attract new greater fools?

This. Is. What. Is.

The halving will be priced in on the day of the halving, not today. But on the day after the halving the material effect of the halving will be begin to be felt, and then that will be 'priced in'. 6 months after the halving the effect of 180,000 coins not coming to market will be then priced in also.

I agree with almost everything you say, rOach; however, I would hardly characterize $420 as a "LONG TIME" floor.

For almost a year (late 2014 and through a lot of 2015), we did witness $220-ish as a kind of floor that was infrequently breached.

After the price spike from $230-ish to $500 (from August 2015 to November 2015), there was a period of finding the new floor, and I would argue that to had become, largely, floating in the range of $360 to $460, and we are still in that floating.. but slowly floating upwards in that range and likely to break out of that range.  The NOT priced in nature of the halvening is likely only part of the story concerning why we are soon on the precipice of a 5x to 10x bubble, which could actually take a year or so to play out.... and then likely bring us into the range of having a floor in the $2k territory...

Anyhow, I largely agree with you, rOach, and surely none of us have crystal balls that actually work...  .

Nah, there's a difference between economic expectations and economic reality.  People guess at what effect it will have beforehand in hopes of making a profit, then the mining supply is cut in half afterwards and it changes from random gamblers messing around in the market to the equivalent of someone flipping a light switch to turn gravity on.

If the random gamblers have overextended themselves above what the market can bear post-halving, then the price would go down.  If the random gamblers have not, then it goes up.  The fact that the price had a solid floor around $420 for a LONG TIME even with constant daily China dumpings means the market is obviously not overextended.