Topic: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet - page 40. (Read 119626 times)

seems to me 2 conditions need to be satisfied for MPP to be worthwhile:

1.  after 3 mo, the difficulty needs to be in a range corresponding to less than the maximum of 5x one's original HR from the point you receive your units.  at that point, the MPP can kick in and bring you even to your original investment in the form of the BTC already generated plus additional hashing capacity from the MPP.
2.  at that point of #1 the difficulty needs to stabilize or decrease to start returning more than your initial cost in the form of profit.

there's definitely a chance this could happen so it is not necessarily an "roi theater".

Honestly, these "mining is dead" posts are as ridiculous as the "HashFast will deliver 100% of their promises, on time and we'll all be rich" posts. Reality, as ALWAYS, lies somewhere in the middle and no one will agree on what actually happened.

I'm not talking 180 days. MPP kicks in at the end of 90 days, at which point network difficulty is likely to be quadruple what it is when the miner starts mining. MPP hashrate won't come on line until well after 90 days, which means it is worth a very small fraction of the original hashrate. It is just theater. ROI is not being "protected". MPP is nothing more than a miniscule consolation prize.

50% return in 90 days would mean something on the order of a network @ 10 PH/s that seems plausible.  If the second board only provides 50 GH/s "equivalent" that would imply difficulty quadruples again in the next 90 days or 40 PH/s.   It might happen nobody said MPP is a guarantee.   Then again I don't see the network getting to 40 PH/s in the next 180-210 days.  Sure if you say difficulty doubles every 20 days then sure you can get there, you can also get to Bitcoin uses more energy than the entire rest of the human race combined as well.  As some point economic and energy costs will start to bend the curve.  Then again 40 PH/s in 180 days might happen but it might not.  Still if it does you are looking at -20% ROI after 180 days.  It would be possible to limp in to break even under a scenario like that.  Also by picking 50% return it kinda provides subpar return because it barely puts the customer in the higher category.  A 49% return for example would mean getting 2 more boards.  Granted not what most are hopping for but to say MPP is ROI theater is kinda silly.  Under the same scenario from any other vendor a customer would simply lose even more.  

With batch 2 onward HF has provides a non-MPP option at a lower cost this allows a customer to get more GH from day 1 at the same cost.  Under some scenarios that may be a better option.  Still if you feel the network will hit 40 PH/s in the next 180 days (btw an Avalon and $0.10 per kWh @ 40 PH/s network will cost about $300 to produce 1 BTC) in the next 180 days there likely is no hardware from any vendor that makes sense they all lose even more than HF with MPP.

Perfect.

But the key point is the MPP delivers the goods 3-4 months after the miner. A reasonable assumption will be the 400 GH/s will reach at least 50% output, with the MPP providing 1 board 3-4 months later. Since difficulty is skyrocketing, that 400 GH/s MPP board is actually only worth about 50 GH/s. MPP will not provide positive ROI because it provides the hashrate too late.

MPP is nothing more than roi theater.

I'm not disagreeing with you that the rate will slow down, only on when & (this is sort-of a weird one) how.  I think we have at least 4 month of uncontrolled growth left, where ASIC makers will be mining their own gear.  I may be wrong.

Well said
+10

We're all emperors wearing no clothes. The reality is that too many people have ordered too many GH/s worth of hashing for too much money, given the fixed daily reward. No one is going to win. The surplus has been gladly taken by BFL in particular, followed by KNC and then Hashfast and who knows who has ordered from Cointerra. The contrarians who bet on Bitfury and early Avalon have done well, and I salute their well-placed bets.

A game theorist might have seen all this coming, knowing how to predict what everyone else was doing. Mere mortals, despite endless theorising and model-making, have been blinded by their own optimism. Who wants a device that makes 0.01 BTC a day for 2 months longer than someone else's device. The real reward is in the first few weeks of operation...

I may plant some tulips in my Jupiter when it reaches its end of life. And hope that Paypal and eBay decides that Bitcoin is the future for online international payments, sending the demand through the roof. But I'm not holding my breath....

"I'm fucked, you're fucked, we're all fucked"

Emperors, indeed.

Well preorders only take us so far.   When the difficulty is 4 billion and the break even point (even w/ no difficulty increases) is 3 years+ I doubt many people will be lining up to drop the tens of millions necessary to double difficulty again to 8 billion in a month.

Projecting exponential growth continuing forever is silly.   It will continue sometime as pre-order money "gets deployed" but there WILL be an inflection point.  Where will it happen I don't claim to know the future but the economics around 20 PH/s start looking a lot different then the economics around 2.5 PH/s.   For one thing energy costs will be much more important.

We have talked about this before, i think, and i guess i didn't make my point any clearer this time.  It's just an important detail you seem to overlook/undervalue.  I'm talking about pre-orders (many months in advance).  The money is spent, the miner will go online *regardless* of being profitable -- it's going to happen.  Some of these miners even have a hosting contract, guaranteeing that they will not go offline, no matter what.  The profit feedback loop is fundamentally broken here, or rather works with so much delay as to be useless.  

I hope i was clearer.

Hashrate won't peak out or stabilize unless BTC goes down (which it appears not to be)
or ASIC Manufacturers hit their profit/cost limit which is fairly far away from even what the lowest price is currently (That blackarrow price).

Good luck with your delusions, meanwhile I'm already hashing paying for my miners that unless you missed the point already have paid themselves off lower than I could purchase a batch 1 baby jet.


Oh and like I said before,

If you require your 400% increase in hashrate to break even than you have bigger problems to worry about.

Bragraphics:

I suppose...  There's always a chance.   It's most likely that the real trend here will continue:  ASIC makers will laugh all the way to the bank while their customers lose their monyz.  And, since people here were looking for easy monyz & not trying to rescue kittens, no tears shed by me.

Nice to see someone that isn't a troll in here with a decent reply.

That's good of them then.


Forgive me if I'm wrong because I know you like to twist words around which is the main reason most people dislike you including me but see the following:



400 + 5x400 (x5 the hashing (The hashing being your original purchase) for free) =/= 2000 (2 Terrahash)

You are getting up to "4x the Hashing for Free" or "400% increase in total hashrate" or you could have even said "5x increase in total hashrate" but you definitely implied it was 5x what your purchased for free which is incorrect.

Thank god we can quote their actual website so the crooked can't misrepresent.

That isn't guaranteed.  It is only absolutely true if difficulty continues to grow exponentially forever.  As some point the energy used would be sufficient to liquify the planet earth so I hope that doesn't happen. 

Difficulty continues to grow because people see potential profit.  At some point there won't be sufficient profit (even theoretical) to sustain the rate of hardware deployment and the rate will slow.

If difficulty slows >90 days from Nov it is possible that 5x the hashrate between days 91 and 180 will produce more revenue than 1x the hashrate in the first 90 days.   It can't be guaranteed but at some point economics and physics does come into play.  At around 20 PH/s and $0.10 per kWh an ASICMiner rig will have a higher energy cost then value of the BTC produced. At some point hardware sales will slow down and at some point the least efficient gear will go dark.

but it could catapult me into the zone where the HR peaks out or stabilizes.  at least i have a chance.

where will shleps like Bragraphics be left then?

Lol, thanks for the link.  Let's see...
"... we will give you up to 400% more hashing capacity than the Baby Jet you purchased. Yes, that does mean that if you don’t make your money back in 90 days"

Loooo!  You can stop tossing that "four extra chips per chip if I don't break even."   You may just get ONE.

Miner protection

If X GH/s didn't break even in three months, 5X GH/sec 3 months later won't break even either at current difficulty rise (A MILLION TH/sec in the last WEEK, lol).

If X GH/sec breaks even in 3 months, MPP is irrelevant -- you get *NOTHING*.

You may now return to your pipe dream, which is already in progress.