Topic: HashFast launches sales of the Baby Jet - page 39. (Read 119626 times)

I unignored you especially :-)

There is always a short rally just before and around a difficulty change. And the price tanked just after your prediction...

P.S. The BTC market doesn't close. It's non-geographic and is open 24 hours a day!

I think you are misunderstanding (giving you the benefit of the doubt that it isn't just blatant trolling)

OF COURSE difficulty is going to continue to go up for the next 3-6 months.  Nobody NOT A SINGLE PERSON said differently.  The hashrate curve will only bend when electricity and hardware costs results in a day 1 profitability that is poor.  At current prices that is >10-20 PH/s.   If prices are significantly reduced it is more like 20 to 50 PH/s.  Obviously even with rapid growth it is going to take months to get there from here.   

You make that seem like it is a bad thing.   The longer it takes the fatter the profits are.  Still you never ending refrain has been if you don't profit in the first 60 days you never will.  On inefficient hardware that might be true however if you are efficient (both in J/GH and $ per kWh) when the curve DOES bend due to economics it is possible to make a small profit every day for a very long time.   

The gold rush phase will be ending in the next couple months after that ASIC mining is going to look a lot more like GPU mining did.   There won't be front loaded profits and people will be looking at breaking even in 8-12 months.  When it is closer to 8 more hardware will be sold and difficulty will go up faster.  As it gets pushed out towards 12 people will be less interested and hardware sales will slow down.  It will become a "boring" lower margin game.

Oh, i get it now!  The difficulty climbs until KNC gear is unprofitable to mine, and ... doesn't climb any more.
Hashfast itself also stops filling orders & stops selling your "edge of efficiency" gear, deciding that they've made enough money.  Miner's paradise -- difficulty freeze

Of course, the other ASIC makers can't find a cheaper energy rate than the one your consumer electric co surprise butsexes you with.
Thanks for the milk

a)  Nothing needs to be shipping.  It may be ASIC manufacturers building & mining their own chips, using industrial power rates, while also shipping a fraction of that number to the same consumers who bought Asicminer gear.  The ones who like to mine at a loss to "protect the network."

b)  See above for mining by manufacturers & Asicminer buyers.

c)  Not sure.

Finally, if BTC price keeps going up, or a next-gen chip is developed, all of the calculations begin favoring continued exponential growth.
Not into indefinite future, but the timeframe we're dealing with (3-6 months).

Crumbs, I'm getting tired of explaining this, sorry but this is my last post on the subject, don't have more energy for this. End of March/April is near in my book. There comes the crucial flaw in your logic: when that moment comes, less efficient miners will be shut down, but HF/Cointerra don't get only one more month, they get *forever*. That's the key. That "forever" read very liberally, it's "forever" in mining terms meaning until more efficient chips (11nm) come to market. Please read this again and DeathAndTaxes' above post. Of course, this will not happen as strict and as mechanically as I've written, but that's general mechanism. Good day to you.

i fully concur and on top of that the price is starting to follow the growth of the network hashing rate in case anyone hasn't been paying attention.  there have only been only 4 days in BTC price history where the price has closed higher.

try doing these doomsday scenarios at a price of $1000/BTC.

The equilibrium between mining income and energy costs is not "getting near."  For current gen miners, it's not even in the ballpark.  It won't be in that ballpark 'till April, *if* monthly difficulty continues to rise at 117%.  If the above holds true, you get ~1 month of extra "mining," for a net profit of pocket change.

Finally, stop spouting the "I'll have 5x the hashing power in three months' time" silliness.  You'll have 5x the hashrate IF you fail to make just 1/4 of your "investment" back.  If you only get back 25 cents for every dollar spent.  Blow it by 75%.  And Hashfast is counting 100% uptime from the day of delivery.  Good luck with that.    

What exactly would drive difficulty that high.   People buying rigs that instantly result in a loss from day 0?

Imagine difficulty is so high a Jupiter breaks even on electrical cost ($100 in electricity = $100 in BTC).  Anything less efficient has been idled as who is going to pay $500 in electricity to get $100 in BTC.  Total network hashrate would be close to 130 PH/s (difficulty 18 billion).

Your predict is that in two months the network will double again such that a HF rig will be operating at break even electrical cost?  Really?  Other than blindly following a chart which shows an exponential growth forever have you thought about that.

a) 130 PH/s needed to double in 60 days = 2.2 PH per day in hardware.  Thats like 5,500 BabyJets or Jupiters shipping a day, every single day nonstop.

b) who would be buying these.  By your very scenario a Jupiter is no longer profitable to operate (even w/ free hardware) from day 1.  Who would be buying these hundreds of PH/s of gear to operate at a loss?  Even HF/Cointerra gear would be only marginally profitable.  Even assumming no future difficulty growth and prices as low as $2 per GH it the time to break even would be on the order of TWO YEARS.  So who is going to buy all this 130 PH/s of hardware.

c) It would take a lot more than 1 or 2 miners bad at math.  Even at $2/GH that is $2,000 per TH or $2M per PH.  Another 130 PH would be $260 million in hardware sales.  Hell pretend ASIC companies cut their prices to <$1 per GH you are still talking over $100M.

So which scenario do you think is more likely.  Difficulty continues to double forever OR at some point economics/cost starts to bend the cost curve.  Will a HF miner turn a profit?  I don't know and I am not trying to predict that.  There are far two many variables in play.  However it is painfully obvious for anyone who has done more "analysis" then clicking "calculate" on the genesis block that economic factors will eventually slow the curve.   By your logic why didn't we see difficulty grow exponentially to 100 PH/s with GPUs?  Maybe because while miners are bad at predicting the future they are pretty good at looking at the day 1 economics and that slows hardware deployment.

I'm pretty much positive about x365 part (11nm is nowhere on the radar), what I'm not sure, and you are right I admit, is that it will be whole $1/per day/per Baby Jet mini-board. Cointerra may reduce that as they are as efficient chip as HF and together they may reduce that for both. KNC November delivery is a laugh as it will be turned off at the same time as previous delivery, and BFL I'm not gonna comment at all.


That was a smart move. BTC saved is a BTC earned.

Your calculation sounds great, until you question the x365 part. Do you really think in January that you'll have another 365 days of above electricity cost hashing left? Really? You admit this yourself. I'd give you a maximum of 2 months above a Jupiter before the difficulty forces you below break even, and that's generous. Cointerra will be online by then, KNC next generation in March, not to mention the November batch. Blimey, BFL might even deliver the Monarch. Hashfast might have a fire sale with all their surplus stock. They might go bust and you don't get your MPP.

The only thing that will save all the ASIC buyers going forwards is the exchange rate improving or some miraculous increase in the average transaction fee. The mining market has been oversold, given 3600 BTC block reward per day at $158. I wish you luck.  

I just got my Jupiter refunded and took the 0.07% hit in the USD=>GBP exchange rate since August, I'm that convinced this is a mug's game. I'm not in anyone's camp.  

DeathAndTaxes is not obsessed, man is trying to explain a concept that few from KnC camp seem to grasp. The equilibrium between hashing income and electricity cost is getting near, it is not the question if it will come, it's how many months before it happens. It already happened with GPUs. When it hits, KnC miners will be plugged out of the walls first, while Baby Jets will continue mining as energy most efficient chips through 2014 for as long as 11nm comes around. If we apply your calculation for savings $1.04/day for one Baby Jet, we get for 1+4 Baby Jets from MPP:
$1.04 * 5 * 365 = $1,898.00
So each MPP protected Baby Jet has a chance to earn close to 2K US$ in 2014 while Jupiter is non-profitable for mining. It's considerable part of miner price in my book. I don't claim all 2K$ will be gained since there will be new quantity of quality miners on the market, but on thing is certain - KnC will not be in that game. Tell me again, is DeathAndTaxes obsessed or realistic?

Still not sold on RIO even with MPP and yes I am a batch 1 order one of the first 100. The problem with hashfast is that they are gonna miss their deadline end of Oct is coming soon...

You're right.  "Mining is dead" posts are ridiculous.  Nothing but drama.  I'll offer a sound, edifying alternative:

Q. What should today's savvy mining enthusiast consider when purchasing ASIC equipment, taking into account the rich history of ASIC mining?

A. OMGRun!!1!  Satoshi Dice customers profited moar, historically, then ASIC buyers.  

Wow, nice "them and us" manoeuvre. On a scale of 1 to Josh, you nailed a perfect Zerlan  

Electricity spending/day for a Jupiter is approximately 0.550x24x0.15=$1.98
Electricity spending/day for a Babyjet is approximately 0.260x24x0.15=$0.94

So, come January, when all these units are probably useless anyway, you are saving an extra $1.04/day in electricity costs. DeathAndTaxes seems obsessed with this margin. I think it's irrelevant. The only thing that matters is when you receive delivery relative to when everyone else receives delivery. All rewards are front-loaded. This is why Avalon Batch #1 did so well. They were a small number of people with a huge time advantage.

What I'm interested in here is the marketing of the MPP. I would like to calculate the greater probable loss between:

Buying a Babyjet: $2760 - BTC return until daily return is less than $0.94
Buying a Babyjet with MPP: $4560 - BTC until daily return is less than $0.94 -[1-4]xBTC daily return at very small return until less than $0.94

It's both an interesting and difficult calculation, actuarially (sic). My gut feeling is that not choosing MPP reduces losses. Don't worry, I think we're all going to lose money. My pessimism is not limited to this thread.

It's a clever move by Hashfast. They have fixed their future retail value per module at a minimum of $472.50 without even having to guarantee delivering the unit. Insurance is the perfect way to ensure a cash float. Ask Warren Buffet about it:

https://collab.itc.virginia.edu/access/content/group/dff17973-f012-465d-9e73-a05fa4456644/Research/Fundamentals/Float.pdf



  

Well said. It's specially idiotic to hear claims "your free 2THs you'll get from MPP will be worth nothing in 3 months!" coming from confirmed KnC buyers. How much will your precious Jupiters than be worth in three months when 2THs is just dust? It's plain jealousy or FUD spreading, if we made a mistake counting on MPP, oh boy did you made a mistake counting that Jupiters will mine anything in 3 months with 50-100% more electricity spending than HF.

Quick "model-making" question. Excuse me if this was answered before. Does the MPP calculation for ROI in 90 days include the cost of the MPP itself and the cost of the miner, or just the miner?

Honestly, it's all just a betting game with three outcomes: lose money, break even and profit. The truth is we've all got a slow bet on the future worth of BTC, averaged over the lifetime of our devices. That bet is an irrational one; the current rally will tank after the imminent difficulty rise, as ALWAYS.

Keep on hoping. The snake oil is still for sale.

The real question that no one ever talks about is why the pool operators haven't fiddled with their transaction fee bitcoind settings to start enforcing the wallet developers and payment gateways to add a reasonable fee to all, or at least the majority of, transactions. The proof of work of the block chain creation clearly isn't happening for free :-) Satoshi envisioned the transaction fees inflating. Now, I'd say is the justified time for this to happen!

HF has not said.  Looking at the Sierra models it looks like a PCIe 6 pin power connector.  Not sure why they would make it more complicated then a standard PCIe power connector and a standard USB cable connector.  If they can be daisy chained likely one USB "A" port and one USB "B" port so a standard A to B cable can be used.

The worst thing about the last 3 pages....  I can never get these 10 minutes back!!

Lets talk boards...  does anyone know yet if the miniboards are powered by pci cables?

what kind of usb plugs into it? is it the same as is used by the bfl 60?

Looking forward to the time when I can buy these miniboards for about 300 bucks when the smoke clears and treat them like we did gpus..  when they will have roughly a 10 month ROI!!

well said.